martes, 18 de diciembre de 2018

DEC 17 18 SIT EC y POL



DEC 17 18  SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Econ


ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

Here the summary of the whole US debacle so far

"It's an ol' fashioned buyers' strike" according to CNBC's Bob Pisani.
But it's the worst start to December since at least 1950, Bob?!
See Chart:
S&P 500 December-to-date performance


Most worryingly for the asset-gatherers and commission-takers, there is no capitulation... it's death by a million fleshwounds...
See Chart
Death by Million hedge fund liquidation


US Futures show the real action today...a brief buying panic from the US open to EU close and then the liquidations began in size...


On the cash side, Trannies were the least shitty shirt in the laundry pile with Dow, S&P, Small Caps, and Nasdaq all glued together...
See Chart:


Nasdaq joined the rest of the US equity markets in the red for 2018...
See Chart:


Some Context:
  • Dow -12.7% from highs (correction)
  • S&P -13.7% from highs (correction)
  • Nasdaq Composite -17.3% from highs (correction)
  • Dow Transports -19.4% from highs (correction)
  • Russell 2000 -20.6% from highs (bear market)

In Short: S&P's lowest close since October 2017...taking out the intraday lows from February

But Goldman is leading the charge lower: Goldman is down 40% from highs
See Chart:


FANG Stocks were slapped back to 4-week lows...down 27% from the highs... (AAPL is down 30% from its highs)
See Chart:


VIX term structure remains dramatically inverted and above 25 today...
See Chart:
Vix Term Structure


And if Equity cyclicals are right, bond yields have a long way to fall...
See Chart:


The Dollar Index slipped lower  all day extending Friday's losses...
See Chart:


With a weaker dollar and dovishness all around, PMs rallied as crude and copper crumbled...
See Chart:


Finally, for those hoping for a dovish Jay Powell on Wednesday to lift stocks into year-end, be careful what you wish for - Eurodollar markets are already priced for max dovishness and stocks are trading with a notable premium over that...
See Chart:
S&P 500  Market Implied FED rate move in 2019


The world's largest stock index - the $23 trillion market cap NYSE Composite - has collapsed to its weakest since May 2017...
See Chart:
NYSE Composite


Q4 is not looking pretty...
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Short news on Econ:
...that said, the drift only lasts until Thursday; we have 6 more trading days in 2018 after that...
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As both traders and pundits are convinced the market will likely shut down at midnight on December 21st, here’s what to expect courtesy of UBS
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Short interest in cash equities (and ETFs) has risen slightly but remains near its lowest levels since 2010.  See Charts
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"...you are witnessing a massive culling of the hedge fund industry as hundreds of funds are liquidated and thousands more get sizable redemptions."
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"Long-term, we are not even close [to capitulation]... An asset-bubble, credit-bust recession is on the way..."
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In other words, tightening for the real economy but easy conditions for markets...
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Un-checked conventional wisdom is a dangerous thing...  See Chart
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Regular news:

Trump told the world he doesn't need its money to either fund the US deficit or prop up stocks, and according to the latest data, the world has taken up Trump on his dare, and has been liquidating US securities.
See Chart:
China’s holding of US Treasuries fell to the lowest since mid 2017


Not only China, other countries did the same
In total, the major foreign holdings of US Treasury securities dropped by $26bn to $6.20 trillion, the lowest number since April 2018.
See Chart:
Aggregate foreign holdings of US Treasuries


Finally, away from US Treasuries, and looking at total flows, foreigners sold a net total of $6.5BN in long-term US securities, led by a $22BN sale of US corporate stocks.
What was perhaps more notable is that in October, foreigners sold another $22.2BN in US stocks, the 6th consecutive month of selling, a new record long stretch of foreign sales of US equities, and one during which official and private foreign investors sold a total of $124 billion over the past 6 months, also record high.

See Chart:
Foreign holding change in US Corporate Stocks (SBN)

The bottom line: Trump told the world he doesn't need its generosity to either fund the US deficit or prop up stocks, and according to recent data, the world has taken up Trump on his dare, and has been actively liquidating US securities.
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"I'm pretty sure this is a long-term bear market for stocks...S&P is headed to new lows"

But from the moment Gundlach started dropping truth-bombs, the market was monkeyhammered...
See Chart:


All the major indices rolled over...
Additionally, Gundlach says the Federal Reserve shouldn’t raise interest rates when it meets this week, citing concerns about the bond market and expectations that a slowing economy may require policy reversals in 2020.

“I don’t think they should,” Gundlach said in the interview on CNBC"The bond market is saying there’s no way the Fed should be raising interest rates."
See Chart:

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[[ Here only extracts. To see the 10 steps, open the source below ]]

There is no “get rich quick” plan...

Do you remember all of the analysis about how:
  • Rate hikes won’t matter
  • Surging earnings due to tax cuts will power the market higher
  • Valuations are reasonable
These were all issues which we have heavily questioned over the last couple of years.

Of course, you really can’t blame the average investor for ignoring fundamental realities considering they have been repeatedly told the stock market is a “sure thing.” Just “buy and hold” and the market will return 10% a year just as it has over the last 100 years.

This fallacy has been so repeatedly espoused by pundits, brokers, financial advisors, and the media that it has become accepted as “truth.”

But, if it were true, then explain why roughly 80% of Americans, according to numerous surveys, have less than one years salary saved up on average? Furthermore, no one who simply bought and held the S&P 500 has ever lost money over a 10- or 20-year time span. Right? 
Not exactly.

See Charts:

Here is the problem.
No matter how resolute people think they are about buying and holding, they usually fall into the same old emotional pattern of “buying high” and “selling low.”
Investors are human beings. As such, we gravitate towards what feels good and we seek to avoid pain. When things are euphoric in the market, typically at the top of a long bull market, we buy when we should be selling. When things are painful, at the end of a bear market, we sell when we should be buying.

In fact, it’s usually the final capitulation of the last remaining “holders” that sets up the end of the bear market and the start of a new bull marketAs Sy Harding says in his excellent book Riding The Bear:” 

Statistics compiled by Ned Davis Research back up Harding’s assertion. Every time the market declines more than 10%, (and real” bear markets don’t even officially begin until the decline is 20%), mutual funds experience net outflows of investor money. To wit:

Lipper also found the largest outflows on record from stocks ($46BN), the largest outflows since December 2015 from taxable bond ($13.4BN) and Investment Grade bond ($3.7BN) funds, and the 4th consecutive week of outflows from high yield bonds ($2.1BN), offset by a panic rush into cash as money market funds attracted over $81BN in inflows, the largest inflow on record.”

See Chart:
Flows for the broad US assets classes: stocks and bonds

“Fear is a stronger emotion than greed.”
Most bear markets last for months (the norm), or even years (both the 1929 and 1966 bear markets), and one can see how the torture of losing money week after week, month after month, this would wear down even the most determined “buy and hold” investor.

But the average investor’s pain threshold is a lot lower than that. The research shows that it doesn’t matter if the bear market lasts less than 3 months (like the 1990
bear) or less than 3 days (like the 1987 bear). People will still sell out, usually at the very bottom, and almost always at a loss.

So THAT is how it happens.
And the only way to avoid it – is to avoid owning stocks during bear marketsIf you try to ride them out, odds are you’ll fail.

But you can do something about it.
Just like any “detox” program, these are the steps to follow to becoming a better long-term investor.

10-Step Process To Curing The Addiction

STEP 1: Admitting there is a problem 
STEP 2: You are where you are
STEP 3:  You are not a loser
STEP 4:  Accept responsibility
STEP 5:  Understand that markets change
STEP 6:  Ask for help
STEP 7:  Make change gradually
STEP 8:  Develop a strategy 
STEP 9:  Learn it. Live it. Love it.
STEP 10:  Live your life 
That’s it.

You are in control of your situation rather than the situation controlling you.
The markets will continue to remain volatile as a more important “bear market” takes hold in the next year or so.
In short:
There is no “get rich quick” plan.
So, live your life, enjoy your family, and do whatever it is that you do best. Most importantly, make your portfolio work as hard for you as you did for the money you put into it.
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“Once this volatility shows that we’re not going to resume the bull market, then people are going to rush for the exits... it could be worse than 1929.” 
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio



"...the President of the United States is lying about the FBI, attacking the FBI, and attacking the rule of law in this country"
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"Anyone who offends the US-centralized empire will find themselves subject to a trial by media, and the media are owned by the same plutocratic class which owns the empire..."
1. His persecution, when sincerely examined, exposes undeniable proof that we are ruled by a transnational power establishment which is immoral and dishonest to its core.

2. Assange started a leak outlet on the premise that corrupt and unaccountable power is a problem in our world, and that the problem can be fought with the light of truth. 

3. Anyone who offends the US-centralized empire will find themselves subject to a trial by media, and the media are owned by the same plutocratic class which owns the empire. To believe what mass media news outlets tell you about those who stand up to imperial power is to ignore reality.

4. Corrupt and unaccountable power uses its political and media influence to smear Assange because, as far as the interests of corrupt and unaccountable power are concerned, killing his reputation is as good as killing him. 

5. The fact that the mass media can keep saying day after day “Hey, you know that bloke at the embassy who shares embarrassing truths about very powerful people? He’s a stinky Nazi rapist Russian spy who mistreats his cat” without raising suspicion shows you how propagandized the public already is.

6. Relentless smear campaigns against Assange have given the unelected power establishment the ability to publicly make an example of a journalist who published uncomfortable truths without provoking the wrath of the masses. 

7. There are people who worked really hard to get journalism degrees, toiled long hours to earn the esteemed privilege of appearing on the front pages of a major publication, only to find themselves writing articles with headlines like “Julian Assange is a stinky, stinky stink man.”

8. Ordinary citizens often find themselves eager to believe the smear campaigns against Assange because it is easier than believing that their government would participate in the deliberate silencing and imprisoning of a journalist for publishing facts.

9. Anyone who says Assange is not a journalist is telling a lie that they may or may not actually believe in order to justify his persecution and their support for it.

10. Another reason people can find themselves eager to believe smears about Assange is that the raw facts revealed by WikiLeaks publications punch giant holes in the stories about the kind of world, nation and society that most people have been taught to believe they live in since school age

11. We live in a reality where unfathomably powerful world-dominating government agencies are scrutinized and criticized far, far less than a guy trapped in an embassy who published inconvenient facts about those agencies.

12. Assange disrupts establishment narratives even in his persecution. Liberal establishment loyalists in America still haven’t found a rational answer to criticisms that in supporting Assange’s criminal prosecution they are supporting a Trump administration agenda. You now have the same people who’ve been screaming that Trump is Hitler and that he’s attacking the free press cheering for the possibility of that same administration imprisoning a journalist for publishing facts.

13. The precedent that would be set by the US prosecuting a foreign journalist for merely publishing factual information would constitute a greater leap in the direction of Orwellian dystopia than the Patriot Act, for America and for the entire world.

14. The billionaire media has invalidated itself with its refusal to defend Assange. They know the precedent set by his prosecution for WikiLeaks publications would kill the ability of the press to hold power to account, but they don’t care because they know they never do that. For all their crying about Jamal Khashoggi and Jim Acosta’s hurt feelings, they do not actually care about journalism or “the free press” in any meaningful way.

15. Whenever I see a blue checkmark account on Twitter bashing Assange I mentally translate whatever they’re saying into “There is nothing I won’t do to advance my career in corporate media. If you’re in a position to promote me I will literally get down on my knees right this very second and let you do whatever you want to my body.”

16.  I sometimes feel like I respect professional propagandists who smear Assange more than I respect ordinary citizens who go around smearing him for free. What do these people think they’ll get as a reward for their work as pro bono CIA propagandists? A gold star from Big Brother? They’re like slaves who beat and betray other slaves that fall out of line in order to win favor with the master, except they’re not even achieving that. The professional manipulators are at least cheering for their own class to continue to have its leadership’s interests advanced; ordinary people who do it are cheering for their own oppression.

17. Even lower in my view are the self-proclaimed leftists and anarchists who view themselves as oppositional to the establishment but still help advance this smear campaign. It is impossible to attack Assange without supporting the Orwellian empire which is persecuting him. I don’t care what mental gymnastics you’re doing to justify your pathetic cronyism; what you are doing benefits the most powerful and depraved people on this planet.

18. Anyone who participates in the ongoing smear campaign against Assange and Wikileaks is basically just saying “Extremely powerful people should be able to lie to us without any difficulty or opposition at all.”

19. Everyone should always be extremely suspicious of anyone who defends the powerful from the less powerful. It’s amazing that this isn’t more obvious to more people.

20. Contrary to the narratives promoted by establishment smear merchants, Julian Assange is not hiding from justice in the Ecuadorian embassy. He is hiding from injustice. Everyone who knows anything about the US government’s prosecution of leakers and whistleblowers knows he has no shot at a fair trial, and would face brutal mistreatment at the hands of the same regime which tortured Chelsea Manning.

21. The persecution of Assange is essentially a question that mankind is asking itself: do we want to (A) continue down the path of omnicidal, ecocidal Orwellian dystopia, or do we want to (B) pull up and away from that trajectory and shrug off the oppressive power establishment which is driving us toward either total extinction or total enslavement? So far, A is the answer we’ve been giving ourselves to that question. But, as long as we switch before it’s too late, we can always change our answer.

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"The masses of people playing Candy Crush and using Viber on their mobiles are overwhelmingly unaware of their participation in data mining how their participation poses a danger to a healthy democracy..."
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"The media are part of the agenda to remove any outsider to allow Washington to do what it does best – manipulate the people and False flags are very much a part of the agenda..."
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7,000 of those homes had zero offers, up 54% compared to 2017 and the highest number of homes in Las Vegas Valley to not get a bid in more than two years...
                [[ When this bubble is going to be burst.. in whose interest? ]]
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TRUMP MOVING AHEAD WITH SECOND FARM BAILOUT DESPITE TRADE 'TRUCE'

Trump may have ‘inadvertently’ raised questions about the prospects for a lasting trade truce. 
[[ He agreed .. and just do the opposite, as usual. Who trust him?  How China is going to respond to this Econ Terror by Trump?. They will respond of course ]]

Trump tweeted Monday afternoon that he had authorized Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue to move ahead with the second round of farm subsidies ("Market Facilitation Payments") that the administration had authorized over the summer after China retaliated against the US by slapping tariffs on US agriculture imports like soybeans.

See Chart:
Trump’s Emergency Aid for Farmers in Context

Though the subsidies hadn't offset the trade war's brutal impact on soybean farmersrelief for America's beleaguered farmers finally arrived earlier this month when Chinese importers bought 500,000 in US soybeans, purportedly as a gesture of good faith following a "trade truce" struck by Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the G-20 Summit in Argentina.
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US-WW ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo


Last week something historic happened in the US Senate. For the first time in 45 years, a chamber of the US Congress voted to pull US forces from a military conflictunder the 1973 War Powers Act...
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"It’ll be just like the old days in Nanking and Pearl Harbor..."
[[ It could be the reverse.. Remember Pearl Harbor was masterminded by PENTA and CIA.. Japan felt in the trap  Hiroshina-Nagaz was already calcul ]]
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CHRISTOPHER STEELE ADMITS HE WAS HIRED TO HELP HILLARY CHALLENGE 2016 ELECTION

Former UK spy Christopher Steele admitted in a London court that he was hired to help Hillary Clinton contest the results of the 2016 election in case Trump won, according to the Washington Times.  

Steele assembled an anti-Trump "dossier" of opposition research investigative firm Fusion GPS, which was in turn hired by DNC law firm Perkins Coie LLP. The document used "a senior Russian Foreign Ministry figure," and "a former top level intelligence officer still active in the Kremlin," according to Vanity FairIn other words, Hillary Clinton - through Steele and other intermediaries - was working with Russians against Donald Trump.  
[[ Interesting twist.. with same fake “evil”: the Russians.
Are you going to trust this story-tell .. OR
You are going to consider it just as distraction story? ]]
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3


RELATED 1
RELATED 2
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

REBELION

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USA       Angelitos   David Brooks
                Nancy MacLean: Pdo Rep; asaltado por multimillonarios”
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Cult        Clara Ramas: “El deseo de vínculo produce comunidad” S L
                Los últimos años del príncipe anarquista  Jesús Aller
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PAL-OP   Una idea llamada Daraya  Joey Ayoub
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ECON    Trabajo infantil y capitalismo  Gastón Remy
                La teoría económica al revés  Michael Roberts
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Ecuad    Llaves del crecimiento económico  Juan Paz-y-Miño Cepeda
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Niñez    Pequeñas figuras de papel  Carolina Vásquez
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ALC        indígenas y Gob progresistas en Am Lat  Ollantay Itzamná
                Perú post referéndum: en espera de pasos de Vizcarra MA
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                Panor polít-sindical   Macri-Macrón  Mario Hernandez
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Cuba      Crítica de la razón defensiva  Rafael Hernández
                Decreto 349 debería preocupar a todo cubano?
                Granma alerta: alza de denunc por violenc de gén
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ALAI NET             

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RT EN ESPAÑOL

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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3


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The Myth of Western Democracy   By Paul Craig Roberts
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COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics


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Anis Shivani   What is Neoliberalism?
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies


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DEMOCRACY NOW
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Econ

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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..


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