DEC 17 18 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Econ
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
Here the summary of the whole US debacle so far
"It's an ol' fashioned buyers'
strike" according to CNBC's Bob Pisani.
But it's the worst start to December since at least 1950, Bob?!
See Chart:
S&P 500 December-to-date performance
Most worryingly for the
asset-gatherers and commission-takers, there is no capitulation... it's death
by a million fleshwounds...
See Chart
Death by Million hedge fund liquidation
US Futures show the real action
today...a brief buying panic from the US open to EU close and then the
liquidations began in size...
On the cash side, Trannies were the
least shitty shirt in the laundry pile with Dow, S&P, Small Caps, and
Nasdaq all glued together...
See Chart:
Nasdaq joined the rest of the US
equity markets in the red for 2018...
See Chart:
Some Context:
- Dow -12.7% from highs (correction)
- S&P -13.7% from highs (correction)
- Nasdaq Composite -17.3% from highs (correction)
- Dow Transports -19.4% from highs (correction)
- Russell 2000 -20.6% from highs (bear market)
In Short: S&P's lowest close
since October 2017...taking out the intraday lows from February
But Goldman is leading the charge
lower: Goldman is down 40% from highs
See Chart:
FANG Stocks were slapped back to
4-week lows...down 27% from the highs... (AAPL is down 30% from its highs)
See Chart:
VIX term structure remains
dramatically inverted and above 25 today...
See Chart:
Vix Term Structure
And if Equity cyclicals are right,
bond yields have a long way to fall...
See Chart:
The Dollar Index slipped lower
all day extending Friday's losses...
See Chart:
With a weaker dollar and dovishness
all around, PMs rallied as crude and copper crumbled...
See Chart:
Finally, for those hoping for a
dovish Jay Powell on Wednesday to lift stocks into year-end, be careful what
you wish for - Eurodollar markets are already priced for max dovishness and
stocks are trading with a notable premium over that...
See Chart:
S&P 500 Market
Implied FED rate move in 2019
The
world's largest stock index - the $23 trillion market cap NYSE Composite - has
collapsed to its weakest since May 2017...
See Chart:
NYSE Composite
Q4 is
not looking pretty...
…
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Short news on Econ:
...that said, the drift
only lasts until Thursday; we have 6 more trading days in 2018 after
that...
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As both
traders and pundits are convinced the market will likely shut down at midnight
on December 21st, here’s what to expect courtesy of UBS
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Short
interest in cash equities (and ETFs) has risen slightly but remains near its
lowest levels since 2010. See
Charts
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"...you
are witnessing a massive culling
of the hedge fund industry as hundreds of funds are liquidated and
thousands more get sizable redemptions."
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"Long-term, we are not even close [to capitulation]... An asset-bubble, credit-bust recession is on
the way..."
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In other
words, tightening for the real
economy but easy conditions for markets...
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Un-checked conventional wisdom is a dangerous thing... See
Chart
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Regular news:
Trump told the world he doesn't need
its money to either fund the US deficit or prop up stocks, and according to the
latest data, the world has taken up Trump on his dare, and has been liquidating
US securities.
See Chart:
China’s holding of US Treasuries fell to the lowest since
mid 2017
Not only China, other countries did
the same
In total, the major foreign holdings
of US Treasury securities dropped by $26bn to $6.20 trillion, the lowest number
since April 2018.
See Chart:
Aggregate foreign holdings of US Treasuries
Finally, away from US Treasuries, and looking at total flows, foreigners sold a net total of $6.5BN
in long-term US securities, led by a $22BN sale of US corporate stocks.
What was perhaps more notable is that in October, foreigners sold another $22.2BN in US stocks, the 6th
consecutive month of selling, a new record long stretch of foreign sales of US
equities, and one during which official and private foreign investors sold a
total of $124 billion over the past 6 months, also record high.
See Chart:
Foreign holding change in US Corporate Stocks (SBN)
The bottom line: Trump told the
world he doesn't need its generosity to either fund the US deficit or prop up
stocks, and according to recent data, the world
has taken up Trump on his dare, and has been actively liquidating US
securities.
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"I'm
pretty sure this is a long-term
bear market for stocks...S&P is headed to new lows"
But from the moment Gundlach started dropping truth-bombs, the market was monkeyhammered...
See Chart:
All the major indices rolled over...
Additionally, Gundlach says the Federal Reserve
shouldn’t raise interest rates when it meets this week, citing concerns about
the bond market and expectations that a slowing economy may require policy
reversals in 2020.
“I don’t think they should,” Gundlach said in
the interview on CNBC. "The bond market is saying there’s no way the Fed should be raising
interest rates."
See Chart:
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[[ Here only extracts. To see
the 10 steps, open the source below ]]
There is
no “get rich quick” plan...
Do you remember all of the analysis
about how:
- Rate hikes won’t matter
- Surging earnings due to tax cuts will power the market higher
- Valuations are reasonable
These were all issues which we have heavily questioned over
the last couple of years.
Of course, you really can’t blame the average investor for
ignoring fundamental realities considering they have
been repeatedly told the stock market is a “sure thing.” Just “buy and hold” and the
market will return 10% a year just as it has over the last 100 years.
This fallacy has been so repeatedly espoused by pundits,
brokers, financial advisors, and the media that it has become accepted as “truth.”
But, if it were true, then explain why roughly 80% of Americans, according to numerous
surveys, have less than one years salary saved up on
average? Furthermore, no one who simply bought and held the S&P 500 has ever lost money over a 10- or 20-year
time span. Right?
Not exactly.
See Charts:
Here is the problem.
No matter how
resolute people think they are about buying and holding, they usually fall into
the same old emotional pattern of “buying high” and “selling
low.”
Investors are human beings. As such, we gravitate towards what feels good and we seek to avoid pain. When
things are euphoric in the market, typically at the top
of a long bull market, we buy when we should be selling. When things are
painful, at the end of a bear market, we sell when
we should be buying.
In fact, it’s usually the final
capitulation of the last remaining “holders” that sets up the
end of the bear market and the start of a new bull market. As Sy Harding says in his excellent
book “Riding The
Bear:”
Statistics compiled by Ned Davis Research back up Harding’s
assertion. Every time
the market declines more than 10%, (and “real” bear markets
don’t even officially begin until the decline is 20%), mutual funds experience net outflows of
investor money. To
wit:
“Lipper also found the largest outflows on record from stocks ($46BN), the
largest outflows since December 2015 from taxable bond ($13.4BN) and
Investment Grade bond ($3.7BN) funds, and the 4th consecutive week of outflows
from high yield bonds ($2.1BN), offset by a panic rush into cash as money market funds attracted
over $81BN in inflows, the largest inflow on record.”
See Chart:
Flows for the broad US assets classes: stocks and bonds
“Fear
is a stronger emotion than greed.”
Most bear markets last for months (the norm), or even years (both the 1929 and 1966 bear
markets), and one can see how the torture of
losing money week after week, month after month, this
would wear down even the most determined “buy and hold” investor.
But the average investor’s pain threshold is a lot lower
than that. The research shows that it doesn’t matter if the bear market lasts
less than 3 months (like the 1990
bear) or less than 3 days (like the 1987
bear). People will
still sell out, usually at the very bottom, and almost always at a loss.
So THAT is how it happens.
And the only way to avoid it – is to
avoid owning stocks during bear markets. If you try to ride them out, odds are you’ll fail.
But you can do something about it.
Just like any “detox” program, these are the steps to follow to becoming a better long-term
investor.
10-Step Process
To Curing The Addiction
STEP 1:
Admitting there is a problem
STEP 2: You are
where you are
STEP
3: You are not a loser
STEP 4:
Accept responsibility
STEP 5:
Understand that markets change
STEP 6: Ask
for help
STEP
7: Make change gradually
STEP 8:
Develop a strategy
STEP
9: Learn it. Live it. Love it.
STEP 10:
Live your life
That’s it.
You are in control of your situation
rather than the situation controlling you.
The markets will continue to remain volatile as a more
important “bear market” takes hold in the next year or so.
In short:
There is no “get rich quick” plan.
So, live your life, enjoy your family, and do whatever it is
that you do best. Most
importantly, make your portfolio work as hard for you as you did for the money
you put into it.
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“Once this volatility shows that we’re not going to resume the bull market, then people are going to rush
for the exits... it could be worse than 1929.”
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US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds
& corruption. Urge cambio
"...the
President of the United States is lying about the FBI, attacking the FBI, and attacking the rule of law in this
country"
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"Anyone who offends the US-centralized empire will find themselves subject to a trial by media, and
the media are owned by the same
plutocratic class which owns the empire..."
1. His persecution, when sincerely examined, exposes
undeniable proof that we are ruled by a transnational power establishment which
is immoral and dishonest to its core.
2. Assange started a leak outlet on the premise that corrupt and unaccountable power is a problem in our world, and
that the problem can be fought with the light of truth.
3. Anyone
who offends the US-centralized empire will find themselves subject to a trial
by media, and the media are owned by the same plutocratic class which owns the
empire. To believe what mass media news outlets tell you about
those who stand up to imperial power is to ignore reality.
4. Corrupt
and unaccountable power uses its political and media influence to smear Assange because, as far as the interests of corrupt and
unaccountable power are concerned, killing his reputation is as good as killing
him.
5. The
fact that the mass media can keep saying day after day “Hey, you know that
bloke at the embassy who shares embarrassing truths about very powerful people?
He’s a stinky Nazi rapist Russian spy who mistreats his cat” without raising
suspicion shows you how propagandized the public already is.
6. Relentless smear
campaigns against Assange have given the unelected power establishment the ability to publicly make an example of a
journalist who published uncomfortable truths without provoking the wrath of
the masses.
7. There are people who worked really hard to get journalism
degrees, toiled long hours to earn the esteemed privilege of appearing on the
front pages of a major publication, only to find themselves writing articles with headlines
like “Julian Assange is a stinky, stinky stink man.”
8. Ordinary citizens often find themselves eager to believe the
smear campaigns against Assange because it is easier than believing that their
government would participate in the deliberate silencing and imprisoning of a
journalist for publishing facts.
9. Anyone who says Assange is not a journalist is telling a
lie that they may or may not actually believe in order to justify
his persecution and their support for it.
10. Another reason
people can find themselves eager to believe smears about Assange is that the raw facts revealed by WikiLeaks publications punch giant
holes in the stories about the kind of world, nation and society that most
people have been taught to believe they live in since school age.
11. We live in a reality where unfathomably powerful
world-dominating government agencies are scrutinized and criticized far, far
less than a guy trapped in an embassy who published inconvenient facts about
those agencies.
12. Assange disrupts
establishment narratives even in his persecution. Liberal
establishment loyalists in America still haven’t found a rational answer
to criticisms that in supporting Assange’s criminal
prosecution they are supporting a Trump administration agenda. You now
have the same people who’ve been screaming that Trump
is Hitler and that he’s attacking the free press cheering for the possibility
of that same administration imprisoning a journalist for publishing facts.
13. The precedent
that would be set by the US prosecuting a foreign journalist for merely publishing factual information would constitute a greater
leap in the direction of Orwellian dystopia than the Patriot Act, for America
and for the entire world.
14. The billionaire media has
invalidated itself with its refusal to defend Assange. They know the
precedent set by his prosecution for WikiLeaks publications would kill the
ability of the press to hold power to account, but they
don’t care because they know they never do that. For all their crying
about Jamal Khashoggi and Jim Acosta’s hurt feelings, they
do not actually care about journalism or “the free press” in any meaningful
way.
15. Whenever I see a blue checkmark account on Twitter
bashing Assange I mentally translate whatever they’re saying into “There is nothing I won’t
do to advance my career in corporate media. If you’re in a position to promote
me I will literally get down on my knees right this very second and let you do
whatever you want to my body.”
16. I sometimes feel like I
respect professional propagandists who smear Assange more than I respect
ordinary citizens who go around smearing him for free. What
do these people think they’ll get as a reward for their work as pro bono CIA
propagandists? A gold star from Big Brother? They’re like slaves who
beat and betray other slaves that fall out of line in order to win favor with
the master, except they’re not even achieving that. The professional manipulators
are at least cheering for their own class to continue to have its leadership’s
interests advanced; ordinary people who do it are cheering for their own
oppression.
17. Even lower in my view are the self-proclaimed leftists and
anarchists who view themselves as oppositional to the establishment but still
help advance this smear campaign. It is impossible to
attack Assange without supporting the Orwellian empire which is persecuting
him. I don’t care what mental gymnastics you’re doing to justify your pathetic
cronyism; what you are doing benefits the most powerful and depraved people on
this planet.
18. Anyone
who participates in the ongoing smear campaign against Assange and Wikileaks is
basically just saying “Extremely powerful people should be able to lie to us
without any difficulty or opposition at all.”
19. Everyone should always be extremely suspicious of anyone who defends the powerful from the less powerful. It’s
amazing that this isn’t more obvious to more people.
20. Contrary to the narratives promoted by establishment
smear merchants, Julian Assange is not hiding from
justice in the Ecuadorian embassy. He is hiding from injustice. Everyone
who knows anything about the US government’s prosecution of leakers and
whistleblowers knows he has no shot at a fair trial, and
would face brutal mistreatment at the hands of the same regime which tortured
Chelsea Manning.
21. The persecution
of Assange is essentially a question that mankind is asking itself: do we want to (A) continue
down the path of omnicidal, ecocidal Orwellian dystopia, or do we want to
(B) pull up and away from that trajectory and shrug off
the oppressive power establishment which is driving us toward either total
extinction or total enslavement? So
far, A is the answer we’ve been giving ourselves
to that question. But, as long as we switch before
it’s too late, we can always change our answer.
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"The masses of people playing Candy Crush and using Viber on their
mobiles are overwhelmingly
unaware of their participation in data mining how their participation poses a
danger to a healthy democracy..."
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"The media are part
of the agenda to remove any outsider to allow Washington to do what it does best – manipulate the
people and False flags are very much a part of the agenda..."
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7,000 of those homes had zero offers,
up 54% compared to 2017 and the highest number of homes in Las Vegas
Valley to not get a bid in more than two years...
[[
When this bubble is going to be burst.. in whose interest? ]]
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TRUMP MOVING
AHEAD WITH SECOND FARM BAILOUT DESPITE TRADE 'TRUCE'
Trump may have ‘inadvertently’
raised questions about the prospects for a lasting trade truce.
[[ He agreed .. and just do the opposite, as
usual. Who trust him? How China is going to respond to this Econ Terror by Trump?.
They will respond of course ]]
Trump tweeted Monday afternoon that he had authorized
Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue to move ahead with the second round of farm subsidies ("Market Facilitation Payments") that the administration
had authorized over the summer after China retaliated
against the US by slapping tariffs on US agriculture imports like soybeans.
See Chart:
Trump’s Emergency Aid for Farmers in Context
Though the subsidies hadn't offset the trade war's brutal
impact on soybean
farmers, relief for America's
beleaguered farmers finally arrived earlier this month when Chinese
importers bought
500,000 in US soybeans, purportedly as a gesture of good faith
following a "trade truce" struck by Trump and Chinese President Xi
Jinping on the sidelines of the G-20 Summit in Argentina.
…
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-17/trump-moving-ahead-second-farm-bailout-despite-trade-truce
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US-WW ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol
& global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
Last week something historic
happened in the US Senate. For the first time in 45 years, a chamber of the US Congress voted to
pull US forces from a military conflictunder the
1973 War Powers Act...
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"It’ll be just like
the old days in Nanking and Pearl Harbor..."
[[ It
could be the reverse.. Remember Pearl Harbor was masterminded by PENTA and
CIA.. Japan felt in the trap Hiroshina-Nagaz
was already calcul ]]
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CHRISTOPHER
STEELE ADMITS HE WAS HIRED TO HELP HILLARY CHALLENGE 2016 ELECTION
Former UK spy Christopher Steele admitted in a London court
that he was hired to help Hillary Clinton contest the results of the 2016
election in case Trump won, according to the Washington
Times.
Steele assembled an anti-Trump
"dossier" of opposition research investigative firm Fusion GPS,
which was in turn hired by DNC law firm Perkins Coie LLP. The document used
"a senior Russian Foreign Ministry figure,"
and "a former top level intelligence officer still active in the
Kremlin," according to Vanity
Fair. In other words, Hillary
Clinton - through Steele and
other intermediaries - was working with Russians
against Donald Trump.
…
[[ Interesting
twist.. with same fake “evil”: the Russians.
Are you going to trust this
story-tell .. OR
You are going to consider it just
as distraction story? ]]
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO
..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
RELATED 1
RELATED 2
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes &
terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
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USA Angelitos David Brooks
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ALAI NET
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Futur? Colapso global y después ¿qué?
Mirand el 2019 WD-WF
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RT EN
ESPAÑOL
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Keiser Report "Estados Unidos y China van
camino a la guerra"
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal
conflicts that favor WW3
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The Myth of Western Democracy By Paul Craig Roberts
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NUKES A Spiritual Special Ops Team’s Christmas Gift By Edward Curtin
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Trump, The Quintessential American By
Chris Hedges
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An Historical Journey Into Crimea By Pepe Escobar
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Butina Pleads Guilty to Befriending the U S By Jacob G. Hornberger
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I Feel No Sympathy For Israeli Settlers By Gideon Levy
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COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics
Martha Rosenberg Big
Pharma Fights Proposal to Keep It From Looting Medicare
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Anis Shivani What is
Neoliberalism?
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars from US-NATO allies
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DEMOCRACY NOW
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Econ
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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..
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