DEC 6 18 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Econ
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
"In 2017, the financial world was filled with talk of synchronized
sustainable growth in major economies for the first time since before the 2008
global financial crisis... Now that vision is in ashes. "
The trouble is that the Fed doesn’t set policy in a vacuum since it’s the most influential central bank in the world.
Its tightening has created the need for other central banks to tighten or pause
their easing in order to match it.
The global phenomenon is neatly illustrated in the chart below.
This chart combines the QE and QT of the BoE, BoJ,
Fed and ECB using colors to show the individual contributions of each central
bank.
The Fed’s QE1 (2008), QE2 (2010) and QE3 (2012)
stand out clearly in the three blue spikes. The BoE also had three waves of smaller magnitude shown as green waves
from 2010–2016. The BoJ started late (in 2011) but has never stopped since, as
shown in the red wave. Finally, the gray wave is the
ECB. They were also late to the party but made it up in volume.
What’s important about this chart is not where
we’ve been but where we’re going. The Fed is already in negative territory (the blue wave below the “0” line starting in 2018). The BoE is neutral but is also ready to go negative. The ECB and BoJ are still positive but trending down sharply;
the ECB will go negative in 2019, according to current plans.
The black trend line
shows the aggregate of all four central banks. It crashed in 2018 (mostly
because of the Fed) and will go negative globally in 2019.Before long, the cartoon of Jay Powell shoveling cash into a furnace will
have to be updated to include Mark Carney, Mario Draghi and Haruhiko Kuroda.
If another crisis
happens, the Fed will cut rates back to zero. But it won’t be enough. Then
they’ll have to abandon QT and go back to QE4. Other central banks will follow
the Fed’s lead.
The market sees this coming, but the Fed does not. As usual, the Fed will
be the last to know. Investors should prepare now for the inevitable crackup.
Having cash and gold are
two places to start.
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...given a drag from winter storms, and given rising
jobless claims and tighter financial conditions, the underlying pace of
job growth may have also slowed somewhat.
Bloomberg points out that the seasonal adjustment factor applied to November
payrolls reflects a recurring pickup in the pace of job creation, partly due to
holiday-related hiring. The adjustment typically trails October,
when the bulk of that rise occurs, and has averaged 249k over the past five years.
See Chart:
CONSENSUS FORECASTS:
- Non-farm Payrolls: Exp. 200k, Prev. 250k
- Unemployment Rate: Exp. 3.7%, Prev. 3.7% (NOTE: the FOMC projects unemployment will stand at 3.7% at the end of 2018, and 4.5% in the longer-run)
- Average Earnings Y/Y: Exp. 3.1%, Prev. 3.1%
- Average Earnings M/M: Exp. 0.3%, Prev. 0.2%
- Average Work Week Hours: Exp. 34.5hrs, Prev. 34.5hrs
- Private Payrolls: Exp. 200k, Prev. 246k
- Manufacturing Payrolls: Exp. 20k, Prev. 32k
- Government Payrolls: Prev.4.0k
- U6 Unemployment Rate: Prev. 7.4%
- Labour Force Participation: Prev. 62.9%
The
Headlines - via Ransquawk
Arguing for a weaker report:
Jobless claims.
Winter weather.
Exhibit
1: Winter Storms during the Survey Week Likely Weighed on November Payroll
Growth
See Chart:
Arguing for a stronger report:
Holiday retail hiring.
Post-hurricane rebound.
Job availability.
Neutral factors:
Manufacturing surveys.
Job cuts.
Tariff uncertainty.
Goldman
sees the November unemployment rate remaining stable at 3.7%
last November
(also an early Thanksgiving), the unrounded jobless rate rebounded (to 4.12%
from 4.07%), reflecting a sharp rise in youth unemployment (+2.2pp to 15.9% for
ages 16-19) that was particularly pronounced among part-time workers. These distortions subsequently unwound in December, echoing a similar
pattern in previous instances (see right panel of Exhibit 3).
See Chart:
Finally, Goldman estimates average hourly earnings
increased 0.3% month over month, with the year-over-year rate moving to a cycle
high of 3.2%. This reflects somewhat favorable calendar effects, as the survey week ended on
the 17th. Additionally, we see scope for a rebound in supervisory
earnings, as October average hourly earnings (+0.18%) underperformed relative
to the production and nonsupervisory subset (+0.31%). Finally,
we expect a modest boost
from hourly
wage hikes at Amazon, perhaps worth 0.01-0.04pp in
November.
…
Read more at:
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-06/payrolls-preview-bezos-boost-beware-stormy-weather
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"... none of this
should surprise me anymore. "
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US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds
& corruption. Urge cambio
"Bill
Clinton mixes and matches his
personal business with that of the foundation"
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US-WW ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol
& global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
We can do the same –with bankers like Wells Fargo & big
Corp devoted to speculat
George
Soros Fund Management, the Hungarian billionaires' $25 billion family office,
has been fined $200,000 by a
securities regulator in Hong Kong over its aggressive 'naked shorting' of
a locally listed company.
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Demand of money for good (production
business) and bad (speculators) investors
This art don’t consider the missuses of money for bad
speculators. They’re opposit
Money supply growth is the most
important fundamental datum for overvalued risk assets. Everything else is just
decoration.
"In short, the markets are facing a
far more profound problem than just the question of whether the trade
dispute can be resolved, or if a smooth Brexit can be achieved, or the conflict
over Italy’s budget will be settled amicably."
See Chart:
Although recent surveys show that lending standards in the
euro area have eased considerably, bank lending growth
remains quite anemic.
Reinvestment of the proceeds from maturing bonds will continue
so as to prevent the ECB’s balance sheet from shrinking, but a stagnating
balance sheet is materially different from an expanding one. Based on the growth in bank loans and the
concomitant slowdown in QE, we concluded a few months ago based on a rough
estimate that TMS growth in the euro area was likely to
fall to less than 5% y/y by the end of the year. We still believe this is
likely to happen sometime between December and February.
See Chart:
Japan –
“Stealth Tapering” and the Sword of Damocles
QQE has pushed
Japan’s money supply growth to a multi-year high in early 2017. Prior to this
expanded QE program, growth rates in the 5% to 6% range usually marked peaks,
as banks and borrowers alike were cutting back on outstanding credit. In the meantime the y/y growth rate has slipped back to 6.15%
– still hefty by Japanese standards, but the trend is now pointing down.
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/5-BOJ-tapering-768x488.png?itok=y0aPr9ny
China –
Downtrend in Money Supply Growth Continues
But, Since our last missive, y/y growth in M2 has
essentially remained stuck near a 20-year low of ~8.72%, while y/y growth in M1
has dipped below 4% for the first time since 2015.
See Chart:
Evidently, no
serious reflation efforts are underway as of yet, although the PBoC has cut
minimum reserve requirements several times this year and is frequently seen
injecting short term liquidity to keep repo rates under control.Recently
chatter about an imminent rate cut has become more insistent. Over the past few days it has intensified, as the rally in
the yuan on the heels of the talks between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping was seen
as giving the PBoC more leeway to ease.
Conclusion
In summary we can say that although
y/y money supply growth in the euro zone and Japan is still fairly strong for
the moment, the trend is definitely no longer supportive. Not
surprisingly, we have recently not only seen weakness
in stock prices, but also fairly sharp breakouts in credit spreads, as
positive arbitrage effects are beginning to dissipate.
In short, the markets are facing a far more profound
problem than just the question of whether the trade dispute can be
resolved to everybody’s satisfaction, or whether a smooth Brexit can be
achieved or whether the conflict over Italy’s budget will be settled amicably.
See Chart:
For some
reason many people seem to completely ignore the Fed’s QT operation and the
cutback in central bank support elsewhere, but this is precisely what one
should focus on. As we have stressed
for a long time, money supply growth is the most
important fundamental datum for overvalued risk assets. Everything else is just
decoration.
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Trump “unaware” vs. Trump old trick of threats to
force “deals” at convenience
"Arrest
of Huawei exec has nothing to do with a trade war with China. It’s an action by
federal prosecutors for alleged violations of law, not leverage in a trade
dispute."
[[ No, no fui yo quien la liquidó.. fueron mis leyes:.. butcher’ logic ]]
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SPUTNIK
and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO
..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes &
terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
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Respuesta a los críticos de la Renta Básica Daniel
Nettle
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Perú recuerda a Juan Santos Atahualpa com genio
milit
…
Que es la ‘casi libertad’ para el verdugo Lenin Moreno?
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Opin “Auditoria” Lulen
Lizaso
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ALAI NET
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RT EN ESPAÑOL
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Keiser Report Los conocim económ de Pamela
Anderson
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PARA MANIANA
INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal
conflicts that favor WW3
COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics
GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars from US-NATO allies
DEMOCRACY NOW
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Econ
PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..
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