DEC
31 18 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Econ
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
US Econ in the Current world recession: US data was the most
disappointing since 2008:
"It
wasn't supposed to be this way..."
The world's central banks' safety
harness finally gave way and one by one the world's markets started to plunge.
Global
stock markets lost almost $12 trillion in 2018 - the largest market cap loss since 2008 (and second
largest in history)...
See Chart:
But they said "It could never happen again" ...
fortress balance sheets and all, and yet global systemically important banks
collapsed in 2008.
See Chart:
No
corner of the world escaped unscathed.
This was China's 2nd worst year on
record (2nd to 2008).
See Chart:
The only major
Asian market in the black for the year was India, where the BSE was ahead by almost 6 percent.
See Chart:
Europe was a bloodbath with the
Stoxx 600 down 13% in 2018, its
biggest loss since 2008.
See Chart:
US equities looked unstoppable... until Humpty Dumpty fell
off the wall.
... and December was a bloodbath
(even with the last few days' manic bounce):
See Chart:
And so, this is still the worst
December for US stocks since The Great Depression.
See Chart:
S&P 500 December-to-date-Performance
Gold and bonds outperformed notably
in December as stocks plunged.
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018-12-31_8-00-47.jpg?itok=7ZE3wAWY
This is the first time since the
1970s that the S&P 500 has slumped so much when earnings growth was more
than 10%.
See Chart:
So what should retail investors do?
Well don't turn to the hedgies - Long-short equity fund performance in December
is the worst since August 2011.
See Chart:
Equity Long-Short Hedge Founds worse since Aug 2011
Bonds were all underwater on the
year - despite a huge compression in yields over the last two months - with the
short-end the worst performer on a yield basis.
See Chart:
And the yield curve collapsed
further this year...(inverting in the 2s5s region)
See Chart:
And yields have a long way to fall
if cyclical stocks are right.
See Chart:
And worst quarter for junk bonds
since Q3 2015.
See Graph:
Meanwhile, the dollar rallied on the
year to its best annual gain since 2015:
See Chart:
Bloomberg Dollar Index
While all commodities ended the year
lower, gold outperformed (and WTI did not):
See Chart:
Oil suffered its first annual decline since
2015, slumping
more than 20 percent in a turbulent year that saw fears of supply scarcity turn
to expectations of a surplus.
“We are most likely past the peak of this long economic uptrend,” said analysts at JBC Energy GmbH
in Vienna.
See Chart: Oil
Turbulence
While gold is down in 2018 in dollar
terms, it appreciated against the yuan:
See Chart:
US Economic data was the most
disappointing since 2008:
See Chart:
"Simply looking at the markets would suggest that the global
economy is headed into recession,” said Robert Michele,
chief investment officer and head of fixed income at J.P. Morgan Asset
Management.
“However, while we agree the global economy is in a growth slowdown, we
don’t see an impending recession,” he added, looking at the Fed to provide a
policy cushion.
"Already, commentary out of the Fed
suggests that it is nearing the end of a three-year journey to normalise
policy."
And the market agrees that The Fed
will cut rates more than hike them from here on out...
See Chart:
The question is - will the Fed's
policy error reversal crash stocks further amid a total loss of confidence in
central command once again?
See Chart:
Implied FED Fund Target Rate
Finally, we note with a glass of
champagne inches away from our hands, this will not end well for bond bears and
if bond shorts are squeezed - what happens to stocks from there?
See Chart:
Something is wrong: US long rates are too high & S&P
500 too Low
…
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Short News
The last
time the 1s2s traded almost this negative, when it touched -10.2bps, was in
October 2008, just after the government announced it had bailed out AIG.
See Chart:
…
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-31/1y-2y-treasury-yield-curve-inverts-most-financial-crisis
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Long/short
equity Hedge Funds are on track for worst month since 2011, with equity hedged
strategies down -5% MTD, on track for the worst monthly performance since
August 2011.
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/equity%20LS%20dec%2031.jpg?itok=24l1degk
….
SOURCE:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-31/hedge-funds-track-worst-month-2011-systematics-throw-towel
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US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds
& corruption. Urge cambio
Only Trump’s
Psychiatrist can decipher his delusion
of winning 2020 election
"She
did very badly in proving that she was of Indian heritage. That didn't work out
too well."
[[
Elizabeth Warren do not have to
answer Trump’s idiocies ]]
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[[ Here only selected part.. gop to the source
below to read full article ]]
Here are the articles that you,
dear readers, found most interesting in the past 365 days.
Changes within the administration did start to emerge as the
year progressed, when Gary Cohn, Trump's chief economic advisor and former
Goldman COO, resigned
after repeated confrontations with Trump. Things only escalated from
that point on as one after another prominent Trump advisor took the revolving
door out of the administration, which saw the departure of Secretary of State
Rex Tillerson, FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe and National Security Advisor
HR McMaster, and which most recently parted ways with both its Attorney
General, Jeff Sessions, its Chief of Staff, John Kelly and Defense Secretary,
James Matthis.
See Photos: Trump Administration Departures
Continuing on the themes from the prior year, 2018 also
demonstrated how dominant the political narrative has become when it comes to
finance and capital markets. For all those lamenting that relentless coverage
of politics in a financial blog (which sadly also includes every tweet from
Donald Trump), why finance appears to have taken a secondary role, and why the
political "narrative" has taken a dominant role for financial analysts,
the past year showed vividly why that is the case. After
all, none other than the president rejoiced publicly at every new all time high
in the S&P and, conversely, has been uncharacteristically silent during the
recent sharp drawdown.
See Chart: Presidential # Fin Twit
A look at the Presidential’ Market
Twits. S&P 500 Index
The reason for Trump's recent self-imposed radio silence on
all things market is simple: after declaring the S&P500 a "massive
bubble", Trump had pivoted to the point where he would take daily credit
for the market's record highs. And, as we said last year, "eventually, the
time will come for Trump to pay the piper." That time came in the fourth
quarter of 2018 when the S&P, along with most other developed markets
tumbled as suddenly what had worked for years, no
longer worked, and the one dominant strategy of the past decade, namely "buy the dip", finally failed and
was replaced with "sell the rip."
See Chart: “The end of Buy the Dip”
Average Daily SPS Return if Previous
Week return was Negative
[ Geo-Economics: ] After $16 trillion in liquidity has been
conjured out of thin air by the world's central banks, and the tens of
trillions of credit money created (and misallocated) by China - a country which
was the world's growth dynamo for the past three decades and which is now not
only rapidly slowing down but engaged in a trade war with the US (there is a
saying that shooting wars usually follow trade wars) - the entire world is
floating on an ocean of excess money, which for one more year almost succeeded
in masking just how ugly the truth beneath the calm surface is. Now, as the Fed hiking and actively shrinking its balance
sheet and the ECB set to join in just a few days (with the BOJ not too far
behind), as the liquidity tide starts to come out in earnest, those swimming
naked will finally be exposed, especially if as we expect, the handoff from
monetary to fiscal policy is far more volatile than what the market currently
prices in.
See Chart: Central Bank Assets and Rolling 6m Change, USD bn
Finally,
and as always, we wish all our readers the best of luck in 2019, with much
success in trading and every other avenue of life. We bid farewell
to 2018 with our traditional and unwavering year-end promise: Zero Hedge will
be there each and every day - on most occasions with a cynical smile - helping
readers expose, unravel and comprehend the fallacy, fiction, fraud and farce
that the system is reduced to (ab)using each and every day just to keep the
grand tragicomedy going for at least one more year.
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"Their defining characteristic
is a behavior, not an ideology or factional plumage. Violence is violence."
[[ naïve way of separating ‘action from ideology’ in politics ]]
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"It's
just not right. The American people believe in the value of work - and that
workers deserve to be valued..."
[[ We
didn’t learn the lesson from FDR -1935:similar crisis- .. He forced the rich to
stop their gluttony with his NEW DEALS.. we do the opposite now. We give them
QEs, bailouts & free money.. We have to cut military expending and give to the LABOR the help they need ]]
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"The
legislation would continue existing levels of border funding without giving
President Trump the new wallmoney he is seeking."
[[ I
did say before “the wall is “ blind alley” un callejon sin salida. Trump has to break it with a bigger drama.. that is the adoption of a NEW
ELECTORAL LAW as it happen in Ireland. READ: Sameer Dossani What
Ireland’s Pro-Choice Referendum Teaches Us on Dem . If Trump throw
the PRO-CHOICE
agenda, he will kill
the duopoly system that is the source of Fraud &
Corruption for both Dems & Reps. There’re many easy
ways of doing so. Then he can compete & even win the 2020
election with a new party or electoral
Front (Reps agst Fraud: Patria without fraud). Trump
will be able to compete with the new Popular Front
(Dems for Socialism). If Trump lose and socialists fail in Govt, Trump
can return to power. This is a win-win situation for Trump.. a chance the he
don’t have it now.. Trum has only one choice now:
impeachment and RIP. The other
choice: WW3 will be the worse for our Nation and
the whole humanity. MAD (mutual assured destruction
will prevail) and the united FED will disappear .. secession or separatism in different regions will be the
aftermath of WW3. The FASCIT Trump and
his family will be hunt alive or death.
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"Teacher
pay is now 5% lower than it was in
2009"
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US-World ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
Sided? SOROS
'PERSON OF THE YEAR' INDEED - THE YEAR GLOBALISTS PUSHED PEOPLE'S PATIENCE TO
THE EDGE
[[ If what he did was ‘withouit the
concent of people’ he can’t be person of the year ]]
"Since 2015, the proponents of neoliberalism
have been pushing aheadwith their plans for open borders and globalist
agenda without the consent of
the people. The
last 365 days saw that destructive agenda greatly challenged..."
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[[ What?:
Open their doors for ‘trade competition’ of course.. that is why China lead the
World ]]
While there is still plenty of work
to be done, the sound
money movement continues to gain strength...
[[ Many
times we openly did the reverse.. that is why we are out of competition ..
We used military power –nuke blackmail-
to force our Econ proposal.. that was Ec terror: big error ]]
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO
..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
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Olvidate de China.. creas desconfianza en el US .. y ya
nadie te cree a nivel global
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes &
terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
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Chile la inminente evaporac de los ahorros de los
trabaj P W
COL La rebeldía estudiantil contagia la pradera MH Restrepo
COL La rebeldía estudiantil contagia la pradera MH Restrepo
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ALAI NET
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RT EN
ESPAÑOL
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal
conflicts that favor WW3
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Manual Exposed as Platform show Video About
Israel Terroriz Pals By
Jessica Corbett
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Banishing Truth By Chris Hedges
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Can El Paso be a Model for Peaceful
Coexistence? By César
Chelala
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Govt Shutdown or Not, the Police State Will
Continue to Flourish By John
W. Whitehead
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars from US-NATO allies
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DEMOCRACY NOW
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Econ
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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..
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