AUG 26 17 SIT EC y POL
ND denuncia debacle d Globaliz neoliberal y
propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Econ
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal
globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
"For the next 7 years, S&P 500
returns will be a negative 3.9%... The cruel reality of today’s
investment opportunity set is that we believe there are
no good choices from an absolute viewpoint - that is, everything is expensive..."
For the Next 7 Years, S&P
500 Returns Will be a Negative 3.9%
The chart above breaks the total return from the beginning
of the current
bull market in the S&P 500 into its four main components:
increasing multiples, margin expansion, growth, and dividends.
SEE CHART at the web site below
He notes that this total return is more than double the level
of long-term real return growth since 1970.
No Good Options Are Left
The bottom line? “The cruel
reality of today’s investment opportunity set is that we believe there are
no good choices from an absolute viewpoint - that
is, everything is expensive (see the chart below).”
SEE CHART at the web site below
In absolute terms,
the opportunity set is extremely challenging. However, when assets are
priced for perfection as they currently are, it takes very little
disappointment to lead to significant shifts in the pricing of assets. Hence,
our advice (and positioning) is to hold significant amounts of dry powder,
recalling the immortal advice of Winnie-the-Pooh, “Never underestimate the
value of doing nothing” or, if you prefer, remember—when there is nothing to do, do nothing.
Markets appear to be
governed by complacency at the current juncture. Indeed, looking at the
options market, it is possible to imply the expected probability of a significant decline in
asset prices. Now, we have no
idea what the true likelihood of such an event is, but when faced with the
third most expensive US market in history, we would suggest that 10% seems very
low.
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Dispelling the magical thinking behind the hype...
Energy
is everything.
This is an amazingly
important concept. Yet it's almost universally
overlooked.
With high net-energy, society enjoys increasing complexity
and technological advances. It's what enables us to pursue massive goals like
desalinating billions of gallons of seawater, or going to Mars. But
without high net-energy fuel sources, our capabilities quickly regress to those
of decades -- or even centuries -- past.
The central point of this report is that the US is deluding
itself when it comes to energy abundance (generally) and oil (specifically).
The bottom line is this: The US shale industry
resembles a fraudulent Ponzi scheme much more so than it does any kind of
"miracle".
How do I know that?
Because,
collectively, US shale companies have lost cash in every year of their existence. The burned through cash when
oil was $100 -- and again when it was $90, $80, $70, $60, $50, $40, and $30 a
barrel. They burned through cash in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013,
2014, 2015 and 2016.
You don’t have to be
a finance guru to appreciate or understand that any
industry that persistently burns through cash is a bad deal. Especially
one whose prime product – shale wells – principally deplete (-85%) in roughly
three years. If you’ve been in business for 9 years drilling wells that
mostly run out in 3 years, and you haven’t managed to produce positive cash
flow at any point along the way, then it's time to admit that your business model simply
doesn’t work.
The Danger Behind Myths and Fantasies
Sometimes myths and fantasies are harmless to hold. Like
dreaming that someday you’ll be a major rock star, or bet on the Powerball lottery, where your chances of winning are
292,201,338 to one. Or committing your nation to a ground war in Asia thinking
you can "win".
FIRST, back to the myth of "energy
independence". The EIA itself has been a major proponent of this useless
data glob as seen in their most recent 2017 Annual Energy Outlook:
SECOND: It
is a massive error to state that the US “is on the brink of becoming a net
exporter of oil.” While I can see how that conclusion follows logically from
all the disinformation provided about “energy independence” and the hype
spouted by Wall Street and the shale companies -- it’s totally false.
The US is NOT on the brink of becoming a net oil exporter.
And it almost certainly never will be.
Here’s the data:
THIRD: One
analyst doing a superior job looking at the details is Rune
Livkern of Fractional Flow, who made this excellent chart estimating that
in the Bakken play, one of the best-performing shale basin darlings of
the entire “revolution,” the cumulative negative cash flow between 2009 and
2016 (a full 7 years of history) totaled some -$32 billion in losses:
FOURTH: A company breaking even at $20 should be rolling in cash with
oil at $45. But they aren’t.
Here’s the cash flow chart from PXD.
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"In total we can estimate the
probability of no deal at around 33 percent. We
think this is an alarmingly high probability of a very bad outcome."
For all the breathless
news flow over the past 7 days, the single most consequential event of last
week was the sudden jump in debt ceiling/government
shutdown odds following Donald Trump's confrontational Phoenix speech,
which laid out a problematic dilemma: Trump's Mexican wall, or a government
shutdown. While various financial pundits rushed to discount the odds of a
worst case scenario, the market - in Treasury
bills, if not so much equities - was spooked,
sending the "pre-post default bill"
spread to the widest on record...
In total, Konstam estimates that the
probability of no deal - or a technical
default of the United States - is a whopping 33%. As the biggest
German bank redundantly notes, "We think this is an alarmingly high
probability of a very bad outcome."
We conclude with some troubling parting words from Deutsche
Bank:
While the Obama administration
publicly maintained it was opposed to prioritizing the debt service, it came
to light that Fed and Treasury officials had formalized a plan to do exactly
that in 2011 if Congress and the White House hadn’t acted in time. There
has also been in the past citation of the
14th Amendment, which, in Section 4, states “The validity of the public debt of the United
States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and
bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be
questioned.” This leaves open the
possibility that the President might unilaterally decide to raise the debt
ceiling by bypassing Congress and effectively declaring the debt ceiling
unconstitutional. This was debated in both 2011 and 2013, with
President Obama expressing concern about the damage resulting from such
unilateral action, regardless of constitutionality.
That said, we doubt Trump
would share Obama's concerns about the optics of any executive-level action,
"regardless of constitutionality."
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POLITICS
La seudo democ y sist duopolico es obsoleto por fraudulento y
corrupto. Urge cambiarlo
One of the most important things to remember
about this legislation is that it was ignored by the media, and while it may
only affect the Washington D.C. metro area now, it could be laying the
blueprint for future legislation across the country.
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"Americans are very slow to escape from
the false reality in which they live. Americans are a thoroughly brainwashed people who hold tightly to their false life
within The Matrix... Sooner or later it will dawn on them that there
is nothing they can do but violently revolt."
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"We've created a generation of anger addicts who can't read
past the first page of a book. This is why the
howls of outrage from within the ranks of the news media about Trump's election
ring a little bit false. What the hell did we expect
would happen? Who did we think would rise to prominence in our rage-filled,
hyper-stimulated media environment? Sensitive geniuses?"
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Harvey made landfall just before
midnight on Friday between Port Aransas and Port O'Connor as a monstrous
Category 4 storm - the first of that level to strike
the U.S. since Charley in 2004, and the strongest storm in more than 50 years
to hit Texas. By daybreak it had been downgraded to a Category
1 storm from a Category 4, according to the National Weather Service.
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WORLD ISSUES and ME
Global depression is
on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K- compet. D rest in limbo
From Montezuma to the shores of Tripoli, the US has had a military presence across the
world, from almost day one of its independence...
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In what we believe to be a first for the global fast-food industry, Burger King Russia has reportedly
created a virtual currency called the “Whoppercoin.”
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Global Econ-Pol
crisis leads to more business-wars:
profiteers US-NATO under screen
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Observations
on Venezuela’s Constituent Assembly, Trump Represents an Alliance of Dark
Interests By José Vicente
Rangel,
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
The nasty business of
US-NATO-Global-wars uncovered .. pro RU view
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US
Special Representative Says Ukraine Not Ready Yet to Join NATO It is a de-facto
member
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RT SHOWS
On
contact Agenda
of hate with Ajamu Baraka
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Latino America fight
to break with collapsing Empire: leftist
view on alternatives
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Los nuevos fascismos en el sistema mundo Eddy Sánchez
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Ana Esther
Ceceña “La guerra hoy en dÃa se provoca a
través de la ruptura del tejido social, la desestabilización y la precarización
de las poblaciones”
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La enfermedad, un negocio para la
industria farmacéutica nuevatribuna.es
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PRESS TV
Global situation
described by Iranian observers.. Titles distorted n incomplete sentences
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