AUG 19 17 SIT EC y POL
ND denuncia debacle d Globaliz neoliberal y
propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Econ
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal
globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
A key broad market gauge is potentially breaking a major line of support...
As our Chart Of The Day shows, the VLG closed yesterday below the bottom of its 8-month trading
range.
So what is the technical significance of this development?
Is it the end of the road for the bull? First
of all, it confirms the late-July false breakout and projects a move lower.
Secondly, the loss of the range support opens the door for such a move. Just
how much of a drop are we talking about? And
can a recovery negate this breakdown?
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"Investing in Phase 3 is a dangerous game. Equity
markets are moving into overshoot mode. This is nice while it
lasts, but the Dreaded
Phase 4 may not be too far away. This
is when a global recession pushes both equities and
credit into a bear market. Bubbles collapse... In 2007, Phase 3
lasted only 4 months."
…
The unspoken, if all
too familiar, message was that riskier financial assets, such as credit and
equities, have been artificially boosted by central bank actions, actions which
are soon coming to an end whether voluntarily in the case of the Fed, or
because the central bank is simply running out of eligible bonds to monetize,
in the case of the ECB and BOJ.
In short, King is worried the global market is about to enter another
tantrum.
Is he right?
To answer that
question, another Citi strategist, Robert Buckland, admitting that "we are
(always) worried", takes a look at where we currently stand in the
business cycle as represented by Citi's Credit/Equity
clock popularized also by Matt
King in previous years.
For those
unfamiliar, here is a summary of the various phases of the business cycle
clock:
- Phase 1: Debt Reduction – Buy Credit, Sell Equities
Our clock starts as
the credit bear market ends. Spreads turn down as companies repair balance
sheets, often through deeply discounted share issues. This dilution, along with
continued pressure on profits, keeps equity prices falling. For the present
cycle, this phase began in December 2008 and ended in March 2009. Global equities
fell another 21% even as US spreads tightened.
- Phase 2: Profits Grow Faster Than Debt – Buy Credit, Buy Equities
The equity bull
market begins as economic indicators stabilise and profits recover. The credit
bull market continues as improving cashflows strengthen company balance
sheets. It’s all-round risk-on. This is usually
the longest phase of the cycle. This began in March 2009, and according to most
Wall Street analysts, is the phase we find ourselves in right now.
Equity and credit investors both do well in this phase.
- Phase 3: Debt Grows Faster Than Profits – Sell Credit, Buy Equities
This is when credit
and equities decouple again. Spreads turn
upwards as fixed income investors become increasingly worried about
deteriorating balance sheets. But equity
markets keep rallying as EPS rise. Share prices are also boosted by the effects
of higher corporate leverage, often in the form of share buybacks or M&A.
This is the time to favour equities over credit.
- Phase 4: Recession – Sell Credit, Sell Equities
In this phase,
equities recouple with credit in a classic bear market. It is associated with a
global recession, collapsing EPS and worsening balance sheets. Insolvency fears
plague the credit market, profit warnings plague the equity market. It’s all-round
risk-off. Cash and government bonds are usually the best-performing asset
classes.
* * *
The reason why Citi is concerned where exactly in the
business cycle the US economy and capital markets are to be found at this very
moment, is that as Goldman
showed recently, corporate leverage has
never been higher...
…
Keep reading this Source http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-19/dreaded-phase-4-what-happens-when-credit-spreads-finally-rise
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"...during
the last 19 months the Red Ponzi propagated a false upturn in the global
economy that is already decisively reversing. This comes at the same time that central banks of the major developed
world economies are finally bringing their printing presses to a halt...
the morning-after toll will be especially severe and
disruptive - this used to be called a 'depression'..."
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POLITICS
La seudo democ y sist duopolico es obsoleto por fraudulento y
corrupto. Urge cambiarlo
"...When social revolutions are suppressed by the state, they may
spark a political revolution as the socially oppressed
come to see the overthrow of the autocratic political order as a necessary step
towards liberation..."
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"For
decades the liberal/progressive/left has invested heavily in driving people
apart. Black studies,
women’s studies, and Native American studies can easily cross into propaganda
that generates hatred... Charlottesville has given us a debauchery of denunciation
that proves that we are a divided nation. "
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"The
Trump presidency that we fought for, and won, is over," Steve Bannon said on Friday. "We still have a huge movement, and we will
make something of this Trump presidency. But that presidency is over. It’ll be something else. And there’ll be all kinds of fights,
and there’ll be good days and bad days, but that presidency is over.”
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"The removal of Bannon is the end of even a facade of populism. This is now the Goldman Sachs Presidency with
a thin-skinned, unthinking authoritarian as a figurehead."
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"While nobody with any sense can find any
logic in the far-right racist groups like the Nazis or the Klukkers vs.
Black Lives Matters' media power - and the fear many have of being labeled a racist for opposing them - will continue
to give haters on the far left the power to rewrite American history."
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A NASA plan to stop the Yellowstone supervolcano from erupting, could actually
cause it to blow... triggering a nuclear winter that would wipe out humanity.
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“Out of anger and frustration, I said
something that could have been reframed..."
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Marco Rubio openly incites to violence
"In a truly 'free' society, no one gets beaten up for their political
views. Laws cannot be passed against thoughts or symbols. And mob
violence is not allowed to rule the day. But Florida Senator Marco Rubio, like most establishment political hacks,
is not interested in a free society. He’s interested in
seizing power in any way possible."
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WORLD ISSUES and ME
Global depression is
on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K- compet. D rest in limbo
Just when China is starting to offer an alternative—an alternative that
the US should be trying to bury—the US is moving to
“weaponize” the dollar and pound other nations—even those as geo-strategically
vital as Russia—for simple domestic political reasons. It all seems so
short-sighted.
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"We
do not believe this is an appropriate time to add to risk. Share prices have in
many cases risen to unprecedented levels at a time when economic growth is by
no means assured. Geopolitical problems remain widespread and are
proving increasingly difficult to resolve." - Lord
Jacob Rothschild
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"The artificial creation of money without any
support is always behind every crisis. The People’s QE has failed every time it has been implemented. This would not be
different."
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"Google has come under scrutiny by free-speech organisations
for shutting down neo-Nazi website, Daily Stormer, seemingly too distracted to notice the tech giant has been waging a censorship campaign against
news organisations that publish content which conflicts with the narrative of
the Washington establishment, along
with Facebook and Twitter on the grounds of ‘fake news’."
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Global Econ-Pol
crisis leads to more business-wars:
profiteers US-NATO under screen
Confirmed:
Police Told to Stand Down in Charlottesville—Did Nothing as War Broke Out By Matt Agorist,
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Locked
and Loaded: War with North Korea Cannot be Contained but Must be Prevented By K.J. Noh and Ann Garrison
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
The nasty business of
US-NATO-Global-wars uncovered .. pro RU view
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RT SHOWS
On contact End
of the line auto-manufacturing
severely damaged in Indiana, strike is on
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Bringing
down statues, more corporate censorship
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Latino America fight
to break with collapsing Empire: leftist
view on alternatives
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Desastres naturales con la firma de
Trump Hedelberto López
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Feminismo salvaje Javier Cercas
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Keiser
Report Cría cuervos y te sacarán los ojos
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PRESS TV
Global situation
described by Iranian observers.. Titles distorted n incomplete sentences
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