NOV 1 16
SIT EC y POL
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ZERO HEDGE
ECONOMICS
S&P 500 stocks are down 6
days in a row to 4-month lows - the first time since Aug 24th when stocks
crashed on ripples from the China devaluation...
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Since the last FOMC meeting
(9/21) the probability of rate hike by December 2016 has soared from under 50%
to 76% today (ahead of tomorrow's Fed statement). At the same time, the US
yield curve has steepened drastically (with 2s10s up over 20bps to 5-month highs).
However, unlike the last 4 Fed meetings, the US yield
curve is steepening into the statement...
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Following last week's inventory
draws across the entire energy complex, API was expected to report a seasonally
'normal' 1.54mm barrel build but instead printed a massive
9.3mm build - the biggest since March. Distillates saw a 6th straight
week of draws but Cushing saw the biggest build in 3 months. Gasoline saw the biggest draw in 2 months (-3.5mm) but
RBOB prices are sinking along with WTI.
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The Problem with Predictions
The
problem with this is of course that by the time everybody realizes that a
recession is actually unfolding, the stock market is usually already
half-way to making its bear market lows. Mainstream economists and central
planning bureaucrats are usually particularly clueless when it comes to
forecasting recessions. They don’t even recognize them when they are staring
them into the face.
As an example,
shortly before the market crashed in 2008, nearly everybody denied that a
recession might already be in train or might be imminent. The ECB
actually hiked its main refinancing rate in the summer of 2008. It is fair to
say that no-one at the ECB had even the foggiest idea that an economic
contraction was already underway.
It is of
course true that stock market declines very often go hand in hand with
recessions. Historically the stock market often tends to lead the
economy in economic downturns, but not always. The lead times are quite
variable and sometimes very painful market declines can occur without a
recession (such as e.g. in 1987).
In order to successfully estimate likely long term market returns
one doesn’t really need to forecast the timing of recessions anyway – one mainly needs to consider valuations
(price/ earnings, price/sales, Q ratio, etc.).
In the last recession the stock market’s lead
time was very short – but the recession was only officially recognized after it
had been underway for almost a year already – click to enlarge.
Conclusion
In short, one has to adopt what
will appear as a contrarian position and do so in a timely fashion; while this is a tall order, those who wait for official
confirmation of a recession will have waited too long.
An alternative to making correct
forecasts is to use a trailing stop or some other type of systematic approach
to time exit and entry into the market. To simply
hold on in the face of excessive valuations and excessive credit growth
“because there is no recession” seems a very risky strategy by comparison
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Interest over time
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Bernie's back...
Why has the price
of Humalog insulin gone up 700% in 20 years? It's simple. The drug industry's
greed.
Why has the price of Humalog insulin gone up 700%
in 20 years? It's simple. The drug industry's greed.
SEE big GRAPH AT https://twitter.com/SenSanders/status/793489784375087105/photo/1
Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-01/eli-lilly-plunges-7-month-lows-after-bernie-sanders-tweet
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POLITICS
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In the world of politics, the
cover-up is often worse than the original crime. It was his role in the Watergate cover-up that took down Richard Nixon,
and now Hillary Clinton’s cover-up of her email scandal could send her to prison for a very, very long time.
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"After you have smashed your BlackBerry, don't forget to wipe the fingerprints from
your email server with this non-abrasive, soft microfiber 'Cloth or Something'.
Guaranteed not to prove intent,
or you will get a full refund paid when you are released from prison."
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The extent to which Hillary
Clinton's key advisers are now the focus of major FBI investigations is
becoming clear. As The
DailyMail.com reports, the Clintons' long-term inner-circle - some of whom stretch back
in service to the very first days of Bill's White House - are being examined in at least five separate
investigations.
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DEMOCRACY NOW
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Selected
Articles: Collapse of the Clinton Apparatus? Hacker Whistleblowers, Trump, and
the FBI Converge By Global Research
News
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The
Real Reasons Why FBI Director James Comey Reopened the Hillary Email
Investigation By Joachim Hagopian
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US
Department of Justice (DOJ) Tried Repeatedly To Kill FBI’s Clinton Foundation
Investigation By Chuck Ross
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Hillary Clinton, FBI and the Real November
Surprise By Pepe Escobar
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Can The American People Defeat The Oligarchy
That Rules Them? By Paul
Craig Roberts
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The Podesta Emails Show How America is Run By Thomas Frank
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COUNTER PUNCH
Mike Whitney How
Putin Derailed the West
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Renee Parsons Comey’s
October Surprise
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Binoy Kampmark The
FBI Intervenes: James Comey and Hillary Clinton’s Emails
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
Are Western Powers on Track to Make Syria the New Libya? https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201611021046977685-western-powers-may-destablize-syria/
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Turkey 'Seeking to Neutralize Kurds, Beef Up Its Own Presence
in Syria' https://sputniknews.com/politics/201611011046971794-turkey-kurds-syria/
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US and Turkey Split Over Kurds' Involvement in Upcoming Raqqa
Operation https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201610271046775588-us-turkey-ypg-raqqa/
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West 'Can't Afford to Stumble Into Military Conflict' Between
US, Russia, China
https://sputniknews.com/politics/201610291046876047-west-us-russia-china/
https://sputniknews.com/politics/201610291046876047-west-us-russia-china/
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Trump: US Government Will 'Grind to Halt' if Clinton Elected
Due to FBI Probes
https://sputniknews.com/us/201611021046980121-trump-clinton-fbi-probe/
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https://sputniknews.com/us/201611021046980121-trump-clinton-fbi-probe/
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RT SHOWS
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WASHINGTON BLOG
Posted on November 1, 2016 by
Charles
Hugh Smith
The parallels between Hillary
Clinton and Richard Nixon are not legal–they are political:
specifically, how can a leader crippled by scandal and cover-ups govern?
In even blunter terms:
how can a crippled politico deliver the goods to the special interests who bet
their cash and political capital on the politico’s ability to deliver favors?
Among the many ghosts of
Watergate, one specter especially haunts Hillary: once the
special interests and party stalwarts who defended you through every scandal
and every cover-up–month after month and year after year, on the promise that
you would deliver the goods upon ascending to the presidency–realize you are
too damaged to deliver anything of value to anyone, why would they continue
supporting you?
Once a politico has to declare “I
am not a crook” based on legalese rather than a moral foundation, that
politico’s ability to lead has vanished. Hillary and her supporters
rely entirely on legalese parsing of wrong-doing rather than on a
self-explanatory, basic moral foundation of right and wrong.
Declaring “I am not a crook”
because the wrongdoing escapes prosecution is the same as declaring “I am above
the law.” If the foundation of one’s
ability to lead is a reliance on legal parsing and allies in the Department of
Justice squashing investigations while handing out immunity like candy on
Halloween, the political capital required to lead no longer exists.
⇒ Keep Reading
⇒ Keep Reading
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On November 1st, The Intercept headlined “HERE’S
THE PROBLEM WITH THE STORY CONNECTING RUSSIA TO DONALD TRUMP’S EMAIL
SERVER”, and the reporting team of Sam Biddle, Lee Fang, Micah Lee,
and Morgan Marquis-Boire, revealed that:
“Slate’s Franklin Foer published
a story that’s been circulating through the dark web and various
newsrooms since summertime, an enormous, eyebrow-raising claim that Donald
Trump uses a secret server to communicate with Russia. That claim resulted
in an explosive night of Twitter confusion and misinformation. The
gist of the Slate article is dramatic — incredible, even:
Cybersecurity researchers found that the Trump Organization used a secret
box configured to communicate exclusively with Alfa Bank, Russia’s largest
commercial bank. This is a story that any reporter in our election
cycle would drool over, and drool Foer did.”
The Intercept team concluded their detailed analysis of the
evidence by saying:
“Could it be that Donald Trump
used one of his shoddy empire’s spam marketing machines, one with his last
name built right into the domain name, to secretly collaborate with a
Moscow bank? Sure. At this moment, there’s literally no way to disprove
that. But there’s also literally no way to prove it, and such a grand
claim carries a high burden of proof. Without more evidence it would be safer
(and saner) to assume that this is exactly what it looks like: A
company that Trump has used since 2007 to outsource his hotel spam is
doing exactly that. Otherwise, we’re all making the exact same speculation
about the unknown that’s caused untold millions of voters to believe
Hillary’s deleted emails might have contained Benghazi cover-up
PDFs. Given equal evidence for both, go with the less wacky story.”
NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
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Kuczynski, presidente nuevo de un mundo viejo Adrián Fernández
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Keiser
report 987 El "estado en disputa" que
podría definir las elecciones de EE.UU.
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PRESS TV
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