lunes, 31 de agosto de 2015

AUG 30 SIT EC y POL

AUG 30 SIT EC y POL


ZERO HEDGE


Following Monday’s historic stock market downturn, many politicians and so-called economic experts rushed to the microphones to explain why the market crashed and to propose "solutions” to our economic woes. Not surprisingly, most of those commenting not only failed to give the right answers, they failed to ask the right questions.
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"Something happened  The August turbulence in global markets has produced significant shifts, including a 6.6% fall in equity prices. The currencies of emerging market countries have depreciated substantially against the G-4, while emerging market borrowing rates for sovereigns and corporates have moved higher. Global oil prices have been whipsawed as have G-4 bond yields. The speed and magnitude of these movements is reminiscent of past episodes in which financial crises emerged or the global economy slipped into recession. However, nothing appears to be breaking."
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Manipulation = Fragility. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/30/2015

In markets distorted by permanent manipulationthe most powerful incentive is to borrow as much money as you can and leverage it as much as you can to maximize your gains in risk-on asset bubbles. However, a core dynamic is laying waste to global financial markets: the greater the level of central bank/government manipulation, the greater the systemic fragility.
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...one theory is that some within the Fed realized that QE wasn’t working, and never worked, thus another path was needed. But what alternative did they have, since rates were already ZERO? So maybe they changed courseand took a strong dollar policy vs. a weak one to intentionally weaken the commodity sector and thus boost consumer spending. Throughout this down turn, that message has been repeated by Yellen herself many times, as a source of economic stimulus and for sure has been repeated over and over in the media and the talking heads of Wall Street.
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Like a dog returns to its vomit, the Fed's speculative bubble policy enables the one percent to once again feast on the carcass of the real economy. 'And no one could have ever seen it coming.' Once is an accident. Twice is no coincidence. Remind yourself what has changed since then. Banks have gotten bigger. Schemes and fraud continue. What will the third time be like? And the fourth?
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Economic problems are now compounded by lower population growth and ageing populations; slower increases in productivity and innovation; looming shortages of critical resources, such as water, food and energy; and man-made climate change and extreme weather conditions.

Future generations will bear the bulk of the cost as they are left to tackle the unresolved problems of their forebears. … Governments are unwilling to tell the truth about the magnitude of the economic problems, the lack of solutions and cost of possible corrective actions to the electorate.

For the moment, to paraphrase Alexander Solzhenitsyn, the “permanent lie [has become] the only safe form of existence”. …. But the world cannot postpone, indefinitely,dealing decisively with the economic, resource management, social and political challenges we face.
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"This feels like 2008 all over again," as NPR reports the latest Iowa Poll showed Sanders just 7 points behind Hillary Clinton, who leads 37 to 30 percent among likely Democratic caucus-goers. Why 2008? As NPR notes, that's when a heavily favored Clinton stumbled and lost to Barack Obama, then a young senator whose middle name, Hussein, was the same as a dictator the U.S. had just overthrown and whose last name rhymed with America's Public Enemy No. 1. And while the socialist septuagenarian continues to surge, Hillary faces yet another 'issue', as Yahoo Tech reports, 1 million (or one third) of her 'apparent' Twitter followers are fake.

[ The trend: a graphic shows they are going in different –opposite- directions. Hillary is going down & Sanders is moving up. See Graphic:  ] http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08-overflow/20150830_bernie3.jpg

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During the last crisis period, starting in March 2007 and lasting through November 2008, foreign central banks withdrew gold for a total of 20 out of 21 consecutive months, repatriating a grand total of 409 tons of gold. The last period of peak redemption culminated with the failure of Lehman in September 2008, the near failure of AIG in October and November 2008, coupled with the Fed's bailout of the western financial system. If past is prologue, one should ask: what current or future event is driving the ongoing redemption of 246 tons of gold (and rising) from the NY Fed this time?
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"The first three months of 2015 only saw a marginal increase in SWF assets in the headwind of falling oil prices. TheCityUK expects that SWFs’ assets will increase by 4% in 2015 to $7.4 trillion, well below the 12% average annual growth seen over the previous five years. Flows into some funds could turn negative. Growth in SWFs’ assets is closely related to the price of oil, as around 60% of SWFs’ assets originate from commodity exports."
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The virtuous circle that has sustained the dollar and buoyed USD assets for decades has definitively been broken. Now, with China's Treasury liquidation serving to exacerbate the pressure from the demise of the petrodollar, it's critical to take stock of accumulated petrodollar reserves in order to understand how large the unwind could ultimately be in a worst case scenario. As it turns out, narrowly focusing on official FX reserves could understate the size of petrodollar accumulation by some $2.5 trillion.
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The Value-At-Risk Fiasco, Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/30/2015

VAR (invented at J.P. Morgan well before both the global financial crisis and their entertaining London Whale drubbing) is an expression of the largest possible loss, contained within a specified confidence interval.  We can for example explore the history of worst weekly losses in the S&P, for each month starting more than 5 years ago in January 2010 (and through May 2015).  A total of 65 months.  We can set a probability tolerance of just over 6%, and state that the probability of seeing a loss greaterthan this VAR should be less than or equal to ~6% (or 1 in 16 months). 

[ el arte de mentir con números tiene la simpleza de usar números y Stats para darle autoridad a la auto-mentira .. Alguien se imagina la 5ta pata del gato y de acuerdo a su dimensión establece un índice de efectividad del animal para cazar ratones y para mantener equilibrio en la cuerda floja en la que esta = Ciencia ...? Yo lo que creo es que la farsa y el auto-enganio de los especuladores tiene límites .. pueden mentirse a sí mismos y gozar su VARitonitis .. pero no estafar al resto ]
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NEWS IN SPANISH


Colombia. Negocios cotidianos. Bandas paramilitares, narcotráfico, y poder político y económico en Colombia y la frontera con Venezuela. Juan Alberto Sánchez Marín
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Europa. La Grecia ficciónPablo M Fernández Alarcón
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ALC.  Guatemala profunda. Carolina Vásquez Araya
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Perú.  Dia de la vergüenza nacional. Gustavo Espinoza M.
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Colombia.  -De nuevo cada quien por su lado. Adelaida Nikolayeva
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Perú . DEMAGOGIA HUMALISTA EN EDUCACION  Por Mauricio Quiroz. https://www.facebook.com/mauricio.quiroz.73113/posts/560753230744706
Humala continua mintiendo al pais en educación en la entrevista que presenta frecuencia latina el domingo 30 de agosto. Sigue el mismo camino de su ministro de Educación Jaime Saavedra, incompetente ministro que ni siquiera puede ejecutar el presupuesto asignado. Ofreció 6% del PBI para educación y ya termina su gobierno y nada. …
Tampoco existe articulación en el diseño curricular con el proyecto educativo nacional. Al 29-08-15 se ha gastado el 40.5% en inversiones educativas cuando debería estar en 70 %. …
En infraestructura para instituciones educativas ha reducido el presupuesto que paso de s/.  918 millones en el presupuesto de apertura para tener solo s/. 632 millones en su presupuesto modificado anual. En materiales educativos, tiene asignado s/. 152 millones y solo ha ejecutado a la fecha el 19 %.   
Socialmente, mantiene a cerca de 90,000 maestros en condición de contratados cuando su gobierno recibió con menos de 15,000. Tiene a cerca de 200,000 maestros con sueldos inferiores a 1,200 nuevos soles, sin ningún incremento en sus casi 5 años de gobierno. …
Pretende evaluar a los maestros en su desempeño obligándoles a aceptar una ley de seudo reforma magisterial nº 29944 que liquida la ley del profesorado nº 24029 pese a que existe una demanda en curso ante la Comisión interamericana de derechos humanos. …
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GLOBAL RESEARCH


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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE


Pushing the Edge on Nuclear War. By William R. Polk. Washington’s neocons and liberal hawks are ratcheting up tensions again over Ukraine with the goal of humiliating and even destabilizing nuclear-armed Russia
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American, Not Russian, Aggression is the Real Problem. By Bryan MacDonald. The fact that genuine Russia analysts, who understand the country, have been replaced by neocon nutters who lump the nation in with the likes of Syria, ISIS and North Korea is, frankly, disturbing
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Barak’s Tales of Israel's Near War With Iran Conceal The Real Story. By Gareth Porter. A good cop/bad cop routine by the US and Israel was in fact a strategy to get crippling sanctions against Iran approved by the UN Security Council
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Palestine Overwhelmed by Illegal American Immigrants. By Juan Cole. If there were a Palestinian Donald Trump, he’d be fulminating against illegal immigrants swamping the Palestinian West Bank
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Welcome To The Trade Deal Wars. By Pepe Escobar. TPP has been developed as the economic/trade arm of the “pivoting to Asia”
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Beijing BingoBy Eric Margolis. China’s raw material import boom is finished. So watch out Canada, Australia, Brazil, Peru, and Africa.
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PRESS TV

US considering sanctions against China. Mon Aug 31, 2015 The US is considering imposing a package of sanctions against Chinese companies and individuals over the alleged cyber theft.
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‘Journalist behind China market chaos’. Mon Aug 31, 2015 A journalist in China confesses to causing a stock market crash.
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I advised Snowden to go to Russia: Assange. Mon Aug 31, 2015 WikiLeaks Assange says he advised NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden to seek asylum in Russia.


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