lunes, 24 de agosto de 2015

AUG 24 SIT EC y POL

AUG 24 SIT EC y POL

BLACK MONDAY .. THE CRASH AT PORTAS.  READ THESE ARTICLES

  • Great fall of China sinks world stocks, dollar tumbles (Reuters)
LONDON | BY MARC JONES: Alarm bells rang across world markets on Monday as a near 9 percent dive in China shares and a sharp drop in the dollar and major commodities panicked investors. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/24/us-markets-global-idUSKCN0QT00B20150824

  • Global Stocks Fall Sharply Amid Concerns About the Chinese Economy (WSJ)
WSJ. By TOMMY STUBBINGTON: The meltdown in financial markets intensified Monday, as global stocks and commodities extended last week’s steep declines and the Dow plunged nearly 600 points. http://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-set-for-heavy-losses-1440399044

  • Stock Rout Spreads Through Europe After China Plunge (BBG)
Bloomberg Business. By Jeremy HerronNick Gentle Stephen Kirkland : VIDEO: Is the Global Market Selloff a Buying Opportunity?. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-23/asia-braces-for-more-selling-as-deepening-stock-rout-boosts-yen  August 23, 2015, a day before Black Monday

  • The Fed Is Looking at a Very Different Dollar Than Wall Street (BBG)
That may spell trouble for investors.  By Andrea Wong. Bloomberg B VIDEO : By many popular measures, the dollar has traded sideways for the last six months. Then there's the Federal Reserve's measure.

The greenback is surging, according to an index the Fed created to track the U.S. currency versus 26 of the country's biggest trading partners. It's risen 1.3 percent beyond a 12-year high reached in March, when the central bank fired the first of a series of warnings that a stronger dollar may hurt growth and lower inflation.  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-23/the-fed-is-looking-at-a-very-different-dollar-than-wall-street   August 23, 2015, a day before Black Monday
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NOW A SOCIALIST VIEW ON THE CRISIS by RICHARD WOLFF. Interview by Thom Harmann
IN: The Big Picture : Market meltdown Aug 25, 2015

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ZERO HEDGE


Read every statement and check its graphic

It started in China...
Continued in Europe...
And then catastrophied in The US...
The crash in stocks at the open appeared as much driven by a collapse in USDJPY - JPY carry unwinds - which ripped back and lifted stocks...
Cash indices ripped back off the lows and Nasdaq 'touched' unchanged on the back of AAPL... before it all fell apart again...
As the end of the day loomed, chatter of QE4 (hope) and PBOC RRR Cut (hope) managed to ramp stocks... dragging S&P minis back to VWAP... (on heavy volume)
Some context for the drop today...
Everything is red post-QE3...
Energy stocks crashed, catching down to energy credit markets...which hit another record wide today...
"Inconceivable" - US financial stocks collapse to credit...
VIX explodeder...
Catching up to credit...
Treasury yields plunged as stocks collapsed but as the PPT stepped in and rescued AAPL, so bonds got hit (with the long bond yield soaring to +4bps from -11bps at one point)... then as the weakness re-accelerated, yields plunged... 10Y traded with a 1 handle once again... and 30Y went out with a higher yield
The USD drooped most in 5 months today back to 7 month lows...
Despite USD weakness, commodities were all lower as we suspect margin calls necessitated widespread selling in everything...
Crude was utterly monkey-hammered back to a $37 handle...
EVERY STATEMENT or PARAGRAPH HAS ITS OWN GRAPHIC.. PRESS  TITLE TO SEE THEM
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"That's where we find ourselves now—i.e., interest rates around the world are at or near 0%, spreads are relatively narrow (because asset prices have been pushed up) and debt levels are high.  As a result, the ability of central banks to ease is limited, at a time when the risks are more on the downside than the upside and most people have a dangerous long bias.  Said differently, the risks of the world being at or near the end of its long-term debt cycle are significant.... We Believe That the Next Big Fed Move Will Be to Ease (Via QE) Rather Than to Tighten"
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"The hedge fund guys didn't build this country. These are guys that shift paper around and they get lucky. They are energetic. They are very smart. But a lot of them - they are paper-pushers. They make a fortune. They pay no tax. It's ridiculous, ok?"
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The correction may soon morph into a full-fledged bear market if the Fed makes good on its supposed intentions to raise interest rates this year. Have no illusions, while most market observers are quick to blame the sell-off on China, this market was given life by the Fed, and the Fed is the only force that will keep it alive. Unfortunately for the Fed, it won't be able to get away with doing nothing for too much longer. Events may soon force it to show its hand. Then perhaps some may notice that the Fed is holding absolutely nothing and has been bluffing the entire time.
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As the cost of insuring equity market risk (VIX) spiked higher this morning (having been broken for minutes after the open), catching up to the cost of insuring credit market risk (CDX HY) which has been screaming dead canaries for weeks, a funny thing happened to the volatility of volatility. VVIX (the estimate of the uncertainty of the cost of insuring equity risk) exploded to a level never seen before - as various ETF/hedging strategies imploded - a level twice as high as during the Lehman crisis...
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By starving investors of safe return, activist Fed policy has promoted repeated valuation bubbles, and inevitable collapses, in risky assets. On the basis of valuation measures having the strongest correlation with actual subsequent market returns, we fully expect the S&P 500 to decline by 40-55% over the completion of the current market cycle. The only uncertainty has been the triggers.
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One Millennial's Letter To CNBC. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/24/2015

My advice to my generation if they would like to buy various assets is to just literally say to yourself, "Don't think about the price or what other people are paying. Just ask: 'What would I pay for 1 share of XYZ, knowing it has an artificial edifice around it?'" Then take a swing while flying blind and pray you hit it.
But until that is no longer the case, count me out. Me and my entire generation.
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Deutsche Bank's 10 Reasons Why The Market Is Going Lower. by Tyler Durden on 08/24/2015

Blink and you missed it. With stocks surging back to green and CNBC celebrating, one could be forgiven (were on a goldfish) for believing everything is truly awesome again. However, as Deutsche Bank details, there are ten good reasons why this is far from over...
As Deutsche's David Bianco explains, here are 10 reasons why the S&P likely dips 5-10% or possibly more before any sustained recovery...

1. Poor S&P 500 sales and EPS growth, even ex. Energy
Amid low commodity prices, the stronger dollar, weak investment spending, weak exports and slower foreign markets, S&P sales growth has been poor, even ex. Energy.
2. Demanding valuations vs. history, especially ex. big Banks and Tech
3. Plunge in commodity prices has taken another significant down leg
4. Strong dollar with further upside likely even upon modest Fed hikes
5. Subpar US growth trends with weak productivity and investment
6. US and DM acceleration unlikely to offset slowdown in China and EM
7. Record high S&P margins, approaching record years of EPS growth
8. 3.5+ years since the last correction, no 5%+ dip yet in 2015
10% corrections happen about once every 2 years. Although it has been 978 trading days (as of August 20, 2015), i.e. 3.88 years since last correction, the last -19.4% correction on Oct 2011 was severe, and the Apr-Jun 2012 sell-off (9.94%) was just shy of 10%.
9. Fed hikes loom on tightening job market despite slow GDP/ low CPI
10. No sign of baton pass to investor equity demand as buybacks plateau

Our near-term expectation for a 5-10% dip is in part because we think the Fed hikes despite slow growth.

The Fed not hiking might reduce S&P downside risk this autumn, but we think it would equally limit upside potential until a hike occurs.
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The truth is that similarities, though perhaps few in number, do exist [betwee US & Iran] . Similar though contrasting religious convictions, a penchant for exceptionalism, and pistachios aside, water management stands to be a defining issue for both nations – and, truthfully, the world – as we approach mid-century.
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If the Fed was hoping to get the retail investor back and buying in the market to allow the hedge funds, institutions and private clients who are all selling at unprecedented levels it may have to come up with a different strategy than today's flash crash rerun.
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Forget The Dips, Sell The Rips. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/24/2015

So now comes the era of gluts, shrinking profits and a drastic deflation of the giant financial bubble that the world’s central banks have so foolishly generated. And this time they will be powerless to stop the carnage. Yet the beleaguered central bankers will launch desperate verbal and market manipulation ploys to brake the current sell-off and thereby preserve the bloodied remnants of their handiwork.  When in response the gamblers make their eighth run at buying a dip that is now rapidly turning into a crater, it will be an excellent time to sell anything in the casino that isn’t nailed down.
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[After mid-day came the following four-recovery-simulation articles: The top message was this: Keep the market open .. stop closing INFO as zerohedge tried to do it.. Let's see what happens tomorrow.]


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Translation: the Fed is not data dependent, but it is, as we have said all along, entirely market dependent.
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Following the recent broad market selloff which has taken all US stock indices into the red for 2015 and in some cases, red for the past 52 weeks, the real question traders should be asking themselves now that the power and potentcy of central bank intervention is increasingly questioned is whether stocks are now fundamentally cheap or at least, "fairly" valued. The answer, as SocGen's Andy Lapthorne points out, is a resounding no.
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The S&P Energy sector ETF - XLE - collapsed at the open to its lowest since October 2011... Of course, this should come as no surprise whatsover to those who watch credit...

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Before noon these were the articles published in zerohedge: nice alert!! .. but panicking. Better hide the truth, was the message then after.  

Panic!! All Major US Equity Indices Halted. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/24/2015

Nasdaq was the first to be halted at 0758ET.
The Dow is now down 850 points from Friday's close and halted...
The S&P 500 Futures is halted for the first time in history.
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BlackMonday Now Trending On Twitter.  Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/24/2015
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The fragility of this artificially manipulated financial system was exposed over the last couple of days of last week. It all ended with the S&P 500 falling -3.19% on Friday - its worst day since November 9th 2011.
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Curious why few if any traders can actually execute any trades, whether buys or sells? The reason is that despite the relative calmness of the index prints, what is going on beneath the surface is an unprecedented wave of constant halt and unhalts, making it virutally impossible for any matching enginge to, well, match buyers and sellers.
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Are there any conditions now that are actually better than those of 2008? Or are conditions now less resilient, more fragile and more dependent on unprecedented central bank interventions?
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Paging Carl Icahn... AAPL shares just broke below $100 in the pre-open, the lowest since late October.
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"We should all be in “survival mode” today;there is no reason to take action of any sort other than to raise liquidity where  necessary in order to survive the present chaotic situation. Survival is all that matters. All else is secondary, even if that means surviving with far less liquidity than one had only mid-week last week. This is time for retaining what liquidity we can muster; this is not a time for courage. Get smaller; get liquid and get safe. This is getting ugly and we can only hope it does not get worse."
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"Regional buyers need a lot of conviction to step in front of this speeding train [especially] in context of a rapidly changing economic environment."
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S&P FUTURES AT DAY’S LOW, FALLING 61PTS OR 3.1%
NEW LOWS FOR NASDAQ FUTURES, DOWN 195PTS OR 4.6%
NEW LOWS FOR DOW FUTURES DOWN 533PTS OR 3.2%
EUROPE’S STOXX 600 FALLS 5.3%, WORST ONE-DAY DROP SINCE 2011
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Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/24/2015 - 07:37
  • Deutsche Bank Says Rout ‘Very Serious’ as Growth Outlook Dims (BBG)
  • Great fall of China sinks world stocks, dollar tumbles (Reuters)
  • Global Stocks Fall Sharply Amid Concerns About the Chinese Economy (WSJ)
  • Stock Rout Spreads Through Europe After China Plunge (BBG)
  • China stocks give up year's gains as 'national team' stays on bench (Reuters)
  • The Fed Is Looking at a Very Different Dollar Than Wall Street (BBG)
  • French train gunman 'dumbfounded' by terrorist tag (Reuters)
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GLOBAL RESEARCH

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NOTICIAS EN SPANISH

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Chile. Bachelet en la trampa. Editorial de Punto Final
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PRESS TV

Stocks witness carnage amid meltdown fears. Mon Aug 24, 2015 Continued selloff in Chinese shares is wreaking havoc across the global market, with the US industrial average Dow tumbling more than 1,000 points.
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‘Cuba-Russia relations still strong’. Mon Aug 24, 2015 Cuba rejects as speculation claims that Havana-Moscow ties have cooled after the Caribbean state and the US restored relations.
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'US drawing military plan for Iran'. Mon Aug 24, 2015 The US military is drawing plans for a potential “comprehensive attack” against Iran if the nuclear agreement collapses, says a report.

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