lunes, 3 de agosto de 2015

AUG 3 SIT ECON y POL



AUG 3 SIT ECON y POL

ZERO HEDGE


When we insist that markets are broken and the equities have been consigned to the gambling casinos, look no farther than today’s filing by Alpha Natural Resources. Markets, which were this wrong on a prominent name like ANRZ at the center of the global credit boom, did not make a one-time mistake; they are the mistake. As it now happens, the global credit boom is over; DM consumers are stranded at peak debt; and the China/EM investment frenzy is winding down rapidly. Now comes the tidal wave of global deflation...
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Is Barack Obama trying to kill the economy on purpose? He promised to fundamentally transform America, and he is doing it in hundreds of different ways.  These new greenhouse gas regulations are just one example.  Our nation is being gutted like a fish, and most Americans don’t seem to care. What in the world will it take for this country to finally wake up?
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Back in April, we highlighted Beijing’s "massive debt problem", noting that as of last year, total debt in China amounted to some $28 trillion when you include government debt, corporate debt, and household borrowing. [WHAT IS THE US DEBT IF WE ADD ALL THESE ITEMS? ]


However “Beijing has recently shown a willingness to tolerate defaults and the case of Baoding Tianwei Group Co even suggested that in some instances, state-affiliated companies may not receive immediate government support. Nevertheless, the abrupt 180 on LGVF financing and the transformation of the local government debt restructuring initiative into the Chinese version of LTROs betrays the extent to which China is still reluctant to deleverage its economy in the face of flagging growth “.

[El arte de mentir con #s no les funciona bien a los alarmistas americanos:  Si en Abril la deuda era de 28 trillones y a fines de julio bajo a 23  -eso es: 5 trillones menos en 4 meses- significa que en un año esa deuda podría bajar en 15 trillones y que en 2 años tendrían deuda zero. En otras palabras significa que la terapia que hoy aplican –desenganche con el  modelo neoliberal- es sumamente efectiva. Dudo que esa hazaña pueda lograrse en USA donde las grandes mafias corpor tienen control del Estado ]
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"With these stupid governments printing trillions and trillions of new currency units," warns investor Doug Casey, "it's building up to a catastrophe of historic proportions." In an excellent brief interview with Reason magazine Editor-in-Chief Matt Welch, Casey expounds on the US noting that "as any institution gets larger and older it inevitably becomes corrupt and fails." What to do? "I wouldn't keep significant capital in banks," he exclaimed, "most of the banks in the world are bankrupt. That didn't stop the "brain dead" Greeks who left their money in banks as all the signs were on the wall, he notes as he addresses whether gold is a good investment in 2015, and offers back-handed bright side: Catastrophes create many opportunities to earn a profit.
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"Due to the lack of appropriated funds for this fiscal year the entirety of the PFC payment was not made today. This was a decision that reflects the serious concerns about the Commonwealth's liquidity in combination with the balance of obligations to our creditors and the equally important obligations to the people of Puerto Rico to ensure the essential services they deserve are maintained."
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We are delighted to report that about 7 years after it was glaringly obvious to everyone except the Fed of course, now - with the usual half decade delay - even the NY Fed has finally figured out what even 5 year olds get. "A new study from the New York Federal Reserve faults these policies for enabling college institutions to aggressively raise tuitions. The implication is the federal government is fueling a vicious cycle of higher prices and government aid that ultimately could cost taxpayers and price some Americans out of higher education, similar to what some economists contend happened with the housing bubble."
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We have lived through a credit hyper-expansion for the record books, with an unprecedented generation of excess claims to underlying real wealth. In doing so we have created the largest financial departure from reality in human history. Bubbles are not new – humanity has experienced them periodically going all the way back to antiquity – but the novel aspect of this one, apart from its scale, is its occurrence at a point when we have reached or are reaching so many limits on a global scale. The retrenchment we are about to experience as this bubble bursts is also set to be unprecedented, given that the scale of a bust is predictably proportionate to the scale of the excesses during the boom that precedes it. Deflation and depression are mutually reinforcing, meaning the downward spiral will continue for many years. China is the biggest domino about to fall, and from a great height as well, threatening to flatten everything in its path on the way down. This is the beginning of a New World Disorder…
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The Fed would have needed to hike rates by 800 bps in the wake of the dot-com collapse in order to prevent the housing bubble. That would have purged the system and gradually, the FOMC could have eased by around 300 bps over the next four years. That policy course would have prevented the speculative bubble that brought capital markets the world over to their knees in 2008. And why didn’t the Fed do this? Because "such a large increase in interest rates would have depressed output more than the Great Recession did." In other words, thanks to Alan Greenspan, the US economy cannot function under a normalized monetary policy regime.
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How many more times will we be told that "it" doesn't matter... or it is "transitory" with regard any and every flashing red warning signal from asset values that are not centrally manipulated with regard asset values that are 'plunge protected'? Well to try and kill one of those myths off, we present the following chart... showing how a collapse in commodity prices is unequivocally bad for US equity markets...
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"It violates the essence of what made America a great country in its political system. Now it’s just an oligarchy, with unlimited political bribery being the essence of getting the nominations for president or to elect the president. And the same thing applies to governors and U.S. senators and congress members. So now we’ve just seen a complete subversion of our political system as a payoff to major contributors, who want and expect and sometimes get favors for themselves after the election’s over."
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Amid Escalating Violence In Turkey, Erdogan Says Putin Ready To "Give Up On Assad". Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/03/2015  [ Just a false flag from Erdogan.. Fact: putting is sending guns to Iran & Iran is supporting Assad and PPK. Los 2 bufones del medio oriente Netanyahu y Erdo … sin futuro ]

As opposition lawmakers accuse Tayyip Erdogan of blocking efforts to form a coalition government, Ankara says the PKK orchestrated a suicide attack that killed three Turkish soldiers. Meanwhile, Erdogan says Vladimir Putin is ready to "give up on" Bashar al-Assad in Syria.
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Obama Authorizes "Defensive" Airstrikes Against Assad Regime In Syria . Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/03/2015  [ Para lo que sirve nuestro premio nobel de la paz.. para incinerar inocentes civiles. READ THIS: ‘US strikes in region kill 100s of civilians’  ]

"President Barack Obama has authorized using air power to defend a new U.S.-backed fighting force in Syria if it is attacked by Syrian government forces or other groups, raising the risk of the American military coming into direct conflict with the regime of President Bashar al-Assad," WSJ reports.
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Amid the collapse in coal prices, not helped by the 'China situation' and President Obama's nudge, WSJ reports that the ailing US coal just got another black eye as Alpha Natural Resources is expected to file for chapter 11 bankruptcy protection early Monday to cut its more than $3 billion debt load. After four straight annual losses, Alpha - one of America's largest coal producers - has secured $692mm in DIP financing as it prepares its restructuring plan expected to sell some of the best mines and shutter others. It appears the Arch Coal's CEO's ominous words last week were prophetic - “Coal markets are as difficult as I’ve seen them during my 30 years in the industry." [ How many people is affected? ]
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If last week's shocking crash in the Employment Cost Index (ECI) to the smallest increase on record, was enough for some to seal the deal that the Fed will not hike rates for the balance of 2015 (and perhaps ever), here comes the Fed's unofficial mouthpiece, WSJ's Jon "Stingy Consumers" Hilsenrath, to debunk any such speculation with a note which likely came straight from the Fed titled the "Fed Doesn’t Demand Wage Growth Before Increasing Interest Rate."
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The Athens Stock Exchange reopened on Monday after a five-week hiatus. Stocks fell nearly 23% out of the gate with the country's insolvent banks trading limit-down. Meanwhile, Markit confirmed that the Greek economy has for all intents and purposes collapsed, with Greece's manufacturing PMI printing at 30.2. New orders plunged to just 17.9, betraying a contraction of unprecedented depth.

[ Las ratas de la troika firmaron convenio, se comprometieron a cumplirlo.. para luego quitarse .. pero Grecia sigue en la EU .. la pobreza que acecha los obligara a salirse y será en pacto con otros de la EU ]
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Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/03/2015 - 07:35
  • Deadline Draws Near for Puerto Rico (WSJ)
  • U.S. to defend Syrian rebels with airpower, including from Assad (Reuters)
  • Alpha Natural Resources to Seek Chapter 11 (WSJ)
  • Iran’s Rouhani Says Nuclear Deal ‘More Than What Was Imagined’ (BBG)
  • Cables Show Hillary Clinton's State Department Deeply Involved in Trans-Pacific Partnership (IBTimes)
  • Win or Lose, U.S. Stocks Get Biggest Earnings Bang Since ’12 (BBG)
  • Weaker China factories argue for more policy support as stocks swoon (Reuters)
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If China had hoped it would root out intervention by eliminating Citadel's rigging algos, and unleash a buying spree it was wrong: the Shanghai Composite opened negative, and never managed to cross into the green, despite the usual last hour push higher, ending down -1.1% and down for 6 of the past 7 days. The real action, however, was not in Asia but in Europe, and specifically Greece, where the stock market finally reopened after a 1+ month "capital control" hiatus. Despite the attempt to micro manage the reopening, the result was not pretty, with stocks crashing 23% at the open and staging barely a rebound trading -17% as of this moment, even as banks promptly traded down to the -30% limit as the realization that an equity-eviscerating recapitalization (or bail-in) is now inevitable.

[ El efecto immediato sera la subida de precios de mercancias Chinas en el oeste.. plus other ef]
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It appears that the recent spike in shipping rates was analogous to the dead cat bounce in crude oil prices: a speculator-driven anticipation for a sustainable rebound that never took place. And now, just like with crude prices, it is all crashing down.... again.  According to Reuters, shipping freight rates for transporting containers from ports in Asia to Northern Europe dropped 22.8 per cent to $400 per 20-foot container (TEU) in the week ended last Friday, data from the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index showed.
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GLOBAL RESEARCH

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NEWS IN SPANISH

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La agricultura familiar campesina. Ilusión o desafío. François Houtart
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Puerto Rico. La isla del (des)encanto. Ricardo Alarcón de Quesada
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Balance crítico del Gobierno de Rafael Correa. Francisco Muñoz Jaramillo (ed.) E-book
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RT LATEST SHOWS

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PRESS TV

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'US escalating military role in Syria'. Mon Aug 3, 2015 The US is escalating its military involvement in Syria to target the Assad government, a peace activist and analyst in Washington says.
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ISIL executes 19 Iraqi women in Mosul. Mon Aug 3, 2015 ISIL militants kill 19 Iraqi women in Mosul because they refused to marry members of the terrorist group.
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