domingo, 30 de noviembre de 2014

KEYNESS VS AUSTRIAN SCHOOL




KEYNESS VS AUSTRIAN SCHOOL  
PART 3

Hugo Adan , Nov 27, 2014
Before we go to the 3rd part, we want to resume that we said in part 1 and 2.

In Part 1, we derived different models of capitalism from the degree of competition, role of intervention and regulation, and scope of public ownership. These models include laissez-faire capitalism (or nascent capitalism from the commercial stage), welfare capitalism (typical of mature industrialism), and crony capitalism (or decadent capitalism). We also talked about  state capitalism, that is transitional capitalism to either settled dawn the nascent capitalism or transition to socialism in the case of Russia and China post revolutions.

Mixed capitalism is the 2nd largest type of capitalism seen in European countries (Nordic capitalism is called: Germany, DenmarkFinland, IcelandNorway and Sweden) in which the state represent the interest of both labor and capital, but no one interest in particular. Some scholars said that this type of capitalism was born in France during Bonaparte era; this why was called bonapartism (or corporativism in other views)

Another type of capitalism –quasi similar to Bonaparte’s  though this time coming from democratic elections- occurred when the State, the unionized workers, and big corporations (the owners of the state) merges to solve domestic problems. The most brutal of them was called fascism in Italy and Nazism in Germany.  The same merge occurs in the democratic US experiment of FD.Roosevelt  (1933-45) and in Russia with Stalin’s dictatorship of the “proletarian Bolshevik  party” since 1923. The difference in these merges is the class interests that the State represents. In the U.S case, the whole nation was united to confront the great depression; in Russia the whole nation was united under the lead of the working classes’ Party, to confront the economic and military sabotage to socialism from European countries. In Germany the whole nation was united under the lead of big corporations  supporting Hitler. They reject the heavy burden imposed by European countries who win the 1st WW and to recover the land stolen to Germany during this war. In all of these experiments, statism was the common solution, but the class interest defended, was the difference.

According to Lenin there is another type of capitalism –the so called “monopoly capitalism or imperialist-capitalism”, named also “the last stage of capitalism”. In the opinion of professor James Petras in the U.S and Atilio Boron in the South, the imperial capitalism lead by the US is now processing a transition toward neo-fascism or neo-nazism. The evidence argued to support this thesis  is the suppression of constitutional rights and freedoms stated by the Universal declaration of Human Right and the expansion of neoliberalism  abroad via wars and nuclear blackmails in favor of big transnational corporations.    

In Part 2, we talked about Adam Smith philosophy and main economic tenets. We said that he was inspired in the utilitarian view of Bentham & J.S.Mill.  According to them individuals are motivated by rational-self-interest, seeking pleasure and happiness and avoiding pain & unhappiness, that  was the basic ideology of the emerging capitalism. They coined the myth that capitalism will bring the greatest good for the largest number of people.  Adam Smith brought this false promise to the realm of economics. To him the brutal competition among entrepreneurs will assure goods and services in abundance for everybody. At the end, all people will benefit from this abundance and they will pay the price they are willing to pay, so consumer sovereignty will prevail. All that we have to do is to take out the State hands from the market competition. The market don’t need state regulations, the rough competition can bring instabilities, but at the end all will benefit from them, it was his main message.

The stock market crash of October 29, 1929 (known as Black Tuesday) was the end of Adam Smith myth. The recession started in the US and spread worldwide as great depression. Personal income, tax revenues, profits and prices dropped so much that companies burned their products, dumped into rivers, while international trade plunged by more than 50%. Unemployment in the U.S. rose to 25%, and in some European countries rose as high as 33%, just the rate we have it today again.

It was Franklin D Roosevelt (FDR) –inspired or not by the letter from Keynes to him- who introduced the correction to the “free-market” cannibalism of Adam Smith with the New Deal and the Glass-Steagal Act  in 1933. With FDR the State became a State-facilitator of a deal between the labor, the industrial companies, traders and  Bankers. Unions got recognition of their rights and strong welfarism was introduced, bankers  were forced to inject liquidity to companies providing work to the labor, union’s strike were rid off from the map until  economic recovery is reached. At the end of FDR rule, in 1944, the IMF was set to help the reconstruction from this crisis. Thanks to this deal known as 1st  Breton Woods (1944) the world system got 25 years of prosperity after the 2nd World war.

Love of convenience between U.S and Saudis. In  1971 the OPEC countries demanded fair price for their oil. The US made a deal with the Saudis to get a special price in return for military protection to the Muslim kingdom. Since then the conversion of dollars to gold was rid off  and the fiat dollar or petro-dollar was installed worldwide as dominant currency for bank deposits and international trade.

The failure of the Austrian school.  Since 1985 a savage imperialism was set with Reagan and Thatcher who dismantled the Glass-Steagal Act and imposed the neoliberal policies inspired by the Austrian school. Neoliberalism was imposed brutally in central American and in the South (fascism in Chile, Peru and Argentina). The economic rules of Milton Friedman with the authoritarian design of Kissinger prevailed at the cost of many thousands of lives. A new way of laissez-faire  or brutal competition to take control of the market was unleashed, thanks to the fundamentalist ideologies of neoliberalism. Ten years later those fascist experiments of the Chicago School of economics were demolished in the south by popular uprisings and regular “democracy’ was restored in the whole continent, though the division north-south was totally damaged. In the South the 1980 experiment was a lost decade, in the North, neoliberalism open the door to the current mess of derivatives, hedge funds, speculation and corruption. Huge amount of Capital flow outside, tax evasion became rampant and the explosive inequality started rapidly.

Neoliberal policies of the Austrian school came hand on hand  with genocidal wars of plunder worldwide. After the collapse of the USSR (1989) and especially since the 1990s, a 2nd round of cold war was initiated via NATO militarism: Yugoslavia was destroyed and East European countries from the ex USSR were assimilated to NATO. Before leaving, Clinton destroyed totally the Glass Steagal Act. Since the year 2000 imperial terrorism  became open against  Muslim countries under the pretext  of fighting terrorism, entire countries and cities were wiped out (Faluya among them). After Bush neoliberalism came Obama’s with similar militaristic tones: Muslimg countries continue being destroyed, this time he added drones. 

The dangers of a new world recession came back after the crash of 2007-8. Keynesian economics provide the temporary solution to avert the new world depression.  However, the chances of a big depression are still on, the level of volatitlity (booms & busts) is every year higher than before. The “confidence” factor was crushed by  the 2008 recession. Obama’s Keynesianism in the 1st term –it is said today-  was defeated and the Austrian school of Hayek mixed with Friedman’s monetarism is about to be installed again, after the Democrats defeat in Nov 4,2014.

The fact is that a new great depression similar to the 1930s was averted with the formula of Keynes and is also a fact that the debate on causes and solution to the current crisis is on. Is it possible that the mix of Austrian school with the Chicago monetarist school be installed democratically this time, as the Akerlof and Shiller suggested in the debate with Posner?  Or,  is coming back the Keynesian model with more QEs when the situation demanded, while an alternative to decaying neoliberalism is designed? 

This debate is the topic of this 3rd part: Keynes vs Austrian school. The problem is how to avoid a new depression and  how Keynesians and members  of the Austrian school  are addressing this issue. We are going to summarize the main tenets of each school  and then we will revise the old debate (2010-11) between Posner and Akerlof and Shiller in this regard. They suggested a mix of both schools,  though not clear lines on the uses of State was set, nor is clear the model to which the US economy should go, as Posner stated.  

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PART 3
KEYNES vs AUSTRIAN SCHOOL  Comparative approach
By Hugo Adan

Sources used:

According to the Austrian insider there are 5 issues that summarize the differences between both schools.  Hay 5 temas que hablan de las diferencias entre las 2 escuelas.  Van en spanglish


What factors define economic growth vs recession?
1-  DE QUE DEPENDE EL CRECIMIENTO ECONÓMICO?  y/o SUS CRISIS

KEYNESIAN ANSWERS                                    AUSTRIAN ECONOMICS ANSWERS

Spending drives econ growth                                Saving & production drives econ growth
Savings cause decrease                                         Savings available in the Econ depends on:
The formula of growth:                                          Demand for debt & supply of saving
C+G+I+NX                                                            To get equilibrium betw these 2 factors:
C= consumer expending                                        Interest rate is the key: since it determine
I= Business investment                                          the amount of saving available to ec-growth
NX= Net of experts
G= Government expending


2- GDP is determining factor                                Interest rate is the key for econ-growth
in strength of an economy                                     why?
Why?                                                                      Because “capital goods come into existence
Because whatever the amount of                          by saving. A part of the goods produced is
savings one get have not significant                     withheld from immediate consumption &
influence on income & the amount                       employed for processes the fruits of which
of consumption of others in a market.                  only mature at a later day” LV Mises
Is impossible for all individuals to
simultaneously  save any given sum.


3- BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY
Agregate demand is the key                                   Interest rate is the key

a-“animal  spirits” drive consumer  confid          a-the FED sets interests rates lower than
down causing a decrease in spending &               market would, causing currency creation
an increase in savings                                            b-New currency is borrowed into econom.
b-Layoff & “stickky wages” cause spendg          Low rates & Govt policies direct funds 
to drop & can spiral the econ into depress            into areas they would not otherwise be.
c-The Govmt must step in with spending             c-The econ experience artificial boom
and reduced interest rates in order to                   as expanding companies hire
spark the rest of the economy into                       d-Interest rate rise as everyone grasp for
doing the same.                                                      few resources and savings available
d-The Govmt boost aggregate demand               e-The econ turns to “bust” as is revealed  
by increasing the Govmt section of GDP             
through public works & national projects           demand was base on inflation, not saving
e-The new spending circulates causing
increasing demand and companies to
hire.
Summing: “The right remedy for the                    Summing: to combat the depression by a
trade cycle is not to be found in                            forced credit expansion is to attempt to
abolishing booms & thus keeping us                     cure the evil by the very means which
permanently in a semi-slump; but in                    brought it about; because we suffer
abolishing slumps and thus keeping us                from misdirection of production” Hayek
permanently in a quasi-boom                                                               


4- DEFINING INFLATION                                    DEFINING INFLATION
Inflation is a general increase of prices                  Inflation is the artificial increase in the
& a steady rate is needed for a growing                supply of currency & credit an is always
economy.                                                                    harmful.

“Why is low inflation a problem?  One answ         Price decrease is natural as production
is that it discourages borrowing & spending         capabilities increases.
& encourages sitting on cash. Since our                Both expending and savings increases
biggest econ problem is an overall lack of            when purchasing power increases.
demand, falling inflation makes that problem     “The inflation tax, while largely ignored, 
worse”. Paul Krugman  (it creates deflation)      hurts middle class & low income American
                                                                                 the most. Simply put, printing money to pay
Deflationary spiral:                                                for federal spending difuse the value of the
Falling prices =>falling demand=>consumers    dollar, which cause higher price for goods
all wait for lower prices=>bankrupcies=>             and services”. Ron Paul
layoffs & wage reduction => falling prices



5- METHODOLOGY: STRUCTURING THE ECONOMY
Keynisians: Possitivism                                          Austrian school: Praxeology

Every rationally justifiable assertion can be         Study of human action based on the fact
scientifically verified  or is capable of logical       that humans engage in purpose behavior
or mathematical proof.                                            as opposed to reflexive behavior.
A free market without government                        Spontaneous order among individuals
Supervision can lead to poverty.                            without intervention creates the best
                                                                                 environment for economic growth.
Lack of government regulation                              Monopolies are impossible without a Gvt
creates monopolies.
Total utility principle vs money savings                1 first =>2 second=>3 third. Meaning:
The 1st dollar you own gives you more                 utility can only be measured ordinally.
utility than de million th you may save.               What bring happines to 1, may not to other
Therefore redistribution actually                          The desires of individuals creates common
benefit the whole economy                                     goods.
“Such consumption is not consistent                  Free market tend to lead to abundance for
with the actual habits of the generality               all of its participants,violent intervention in
of capitalists. The great object of their                the market and hegemonic society tend to
lives is to save a fortune.. There must                 lead to general poverty. Murray Rothbard
therefore be a considerable class of
persons who have both the will and
power to consume more material
wealth than they produce”. Malthus


FINAL THOUGHT:  The ideas of economist and political philosophers, both when they are right and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is commonly understood. Indeed the world is ruled by little else. Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence, are ususally the slaves of some ddefunt  economist”.  John Maynard Keynes.
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RELATED ARTICLES:
For Keynes main tenets  OPEN:
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For Austrian school of economics open:
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For comparative approaches:
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REGARDING THE DEBATE BETWEEN POSNER & AKERLOF-SHILLER (2009-2011)

To read the debate bet the Fed Judge Richard Posner  & the Nobel prize in economy Akerlof +  Shiller  we should start  with the book summary of Alerkof done by Wikipedia. In this book Akerlof tried to put together both schools by departing from a paragraph of Keynes on “animal spirits” or subjective factor affecting the realm  of economics. According to Postner Keynes was misread and the possibility of putting together both schools is remote. Even if Austrian scholars accept a limited intervention of the State to regulate the unwanted freedom that big corporations have in current neoliberal economics, as Frederick D. Roosevelt did it in 1933, there is not clear lines on what  state intervention would be permissible from them. The main critique of Posner to both Keynisians and Austrians is that none of them are interested in designed a new post-neoliberal alternative, they simply want to keep alive the current obsolete system.  They do not have a model  that could inspire real change.
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Here the source to get the summary of Akerlof +  Shiller  book “Animal spirits
Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism : Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy ...
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Here  the response to R.Posner  critique by  George A. Akerlof & R. Shiller  http://www.newrepublic.com/article/books-and-arts/disputations-our-new-theory-macroeconomics
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R. Posner , the Judge  with  a  degree in economics  and author of “A Failure of Capitalism: The Crisis of ’08 and the Descent into Depression comes back against Akerlof-Shiller  with this article: "Disputations: A Case of Misrepresentation". The New Republic. Retrieved 2010-09-11. Open: http://www.newrepublic.com/article/politics/disputations-case-misrepresentation

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ENJOY AND HAPPY HOLYDAYS   
Hugo Adan
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