miércoles, 22 de enero de 2014

GERMAN GOLD ESPECULATORs, MANIPULATORs & CONSPIRATORs



GERMAN GOLD ESPECULATORs,  MANIPULATORs  & CONSPIRATORs

GERMANY HAS RECOVERED A PALTRY 5% TONS OF GOLD FROM THE NY FED AFTER ONE YEAR

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/19/2014  [only extracts]

On December 24, we posted an update on Germany's gold repatriation process: a year after the Bundesbank announced its stunning decision, driven by Zero Hedge revelations, to repatriate 674 tons of gold from the New York Fed and the French Central Bank, it had managed to transfer a paltry 37 tons. This amount represents just 5% of the stated target, and was well below the 84 tons that the Bundesbank would need to transport each year to collect the 674 tons ratably over the 8 year interval between 2013 and 2020.

The release of these numbers promptly angered Germans, and led to the rise of numerous allegations that the reason why the transfer is taking so long is that the gold simply is not in the possession of the offshore custodians, having been leased, or worse, sold without any formal or informal announcement.

However, what will certainly not help mute "conspiracy theorists" is today's update from today's edition of Die Welt, in which we learn that only a tiny 5 tons of gold were sent from the NY Fed. The rest came from Paris.

As Welt states, did the US sell Germany's gold?  Maybe. The official explanation was as follows: "The Bundesbank explained [the low amount of US gold] by saying that the transports from Paris are simpler and therefore were able to start quickly."

ESPECULATIONS

Supposedly, there was another reason: "The bullion stored in Paris already has the elongated shape with beveled edges of the "London Good Delivery LGD" standard. The bars in the basement of the Fed on the other hand have a previously common form. They will need to be remelted [to LGD standard]. And the capacity of smelters are just limited."

So... New York Fed-held gold is not London Good Delivery, and there is a bottleneck in remelting capacity?

Furthermore, Welt goes on to "debunk" various "conspiracy websites" that the reason why the gold is being melted is not to cover up some shortage (and to scrap serial numbers), but that the gold is exactly the same gold as before. Finally, to silences all skeptics, the Bundesbank says that "there is no reason for complaint - the weight and purity of the gold bars were consistent with the books match." In conclusion, Welt reports that in 2014 "larger transport volumes" can be expected from New York: between 30 and 50 tons.

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[GOLD MANIPULATION PROFITEERS]

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN EPIC SHORT SQUEEZE IN PHYSICAL GOLD

By: Chris Tell at http://capitalistexploits.at/   Capitalist Exploits on 01/21/2014 [only extracts]

Markets are there to extract money from inexperienced, gullible "traders". OK, some are experienced and just careless, but many are newly minted dreamers, set out into the world by some seminar "guru" who convinced them they could day trade their life savings into a small fortune. You know what they say about small fortunes, right? Financial Darwinism!

Paying attention to "numbers" and trading them intelligently is far superior to chasing unqualified love from long-legged women [those who pay for supercars and penthouses].

The numbers  Tred shared with me were: [Tres Knippa is a broker and trader on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)].
  • -89,756.78 - This number represents the overnight movement of registered gold OUT of inventory at Brink's, and INTO Eligible Inventory at J.P. Morgan.
  • 370,137 - This is the number of ounces of Registered Gold for delivery.
  • 300,000 - This is the number of ounces, represented in gold contracts, that any one entity can own (3,000 contracts).
  • 81% - The percentage of supply at the Comex which would be exhausted should just ONE entity put on a "Limit Long" position, AND demand delivery.

These should be very scary numbers for the folks running the Comex, but even scarier numbers for anyone not holding physical gold and trading paper!

Tres also shared the chart below with me. This is a graphical representation of the amount of paper gold versus the Registered Gold available for delivery:  [Open the website above to see the chart]

Zerohedge also posted a neat little story about the German's only having recovered a paltry 5% Tons of their gold from the US, after a year! You can read all about it here. In short they have repatriated just 37 tons of the 674 tons they have promised to repatriate.

Looking back he was right and I was wrong. The USD has indeed performed better, and likely will continue to outperform in 2014. Although up to this point it's been more a factor of a breather in the gold bull market than USD strength.

I'm a gold bull, not a gold bug. I do believe that the long term trend for gold is bullish. This current setup clearly has the potential for some fireworks. Maybe nothing happens (doubtful), but the risk/reward setup is rather favourable from where I sit. Heads I win, tails I win.

Whatever you choose to do with the above information, I encourage readers to never ever confuse "trading for profit" with investing. I'm happy to trade futures contracts, buy gold in the FX spot markets - essentially trade paper in one form or another, but I would NEVER let that obfuscate the fact that I need to hold PHYSICAL GOLD as protection. Timing a profitable trade is like passing gas, it is largely a matter of knowing when it is inappropriate, and acting accordingly!

THE MANIPULATION RULE

Grant Williams, the prolific editor of Things That Make You Go  said it perfectly in his latest missive:
                "Gold is a manipulated market. Period.
"2013 was the year that manipulation finally began to unravel.
"2014? Well now, THIS could be the year that true price discovery begins in the gold market. If that turns out to be the case, it will be driven by a scramble to perfect ownership of physical gold; and to do that you will be forced to pay a lot more than $1247/oz.
Count on it."

Think about this as a parting thought. Would the Comex, if under pressure for delivery, ever void your positions in order to "stabilise" the market? Or, would that just not be palatable in the Land of the Free?  As Grant said above,  "Count on it."

For the traders out there, Tres shared with me another anomaly in the gold markets which he's been trading successfully for the last couple of months. I'm in the process of translating this from "trader speak" into English, and it will be sent out to members of our currently complimentary Trade Alert service shortly. You can get access to this and more by dropping your email here.
- Chris :
"I firmly believe that in the years to come, when we look back at the great game being played in gold, we will pinpoint January 16, 2013, as the day when it all began to unravel.

"That day, the day the Bundesbank blinked and demanded its bullion, will be shown to be the beginning of the end of the gold price suppression scheme by the world's central banks; and then gold will go on to trade much, much higher." - Grant Williams

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HERE A KIND OF ESPECULATION spread by GOP Greg Hunter

FED-THEY DO NOT HAVE ANY MORE GOLD

By Paul Craig Roberts  USAWatchdog.com , commented by Greg Hunter On Jan 21, 2014
http://usawatchdog.com/fed-they-do-not-have-any-more-gold-paul-craig-roberts/#more-11652

Former Assistant Treasury Secretary Paul Craig Roberts is making some bold new claims about the Federal Reserve and its official government gold holdings.  Dr. Roberts contends, “They don’t have any more gold.  That’s why they can only give Germany 5 tons of the 1,500 tons it’s holding.  In fact, when Germany asked for this delivery last year, the Fed said no.  But it said we will give you back 300 tons . . . . So, they said we will give you back 20% of what you trusted us to keep for you over the next seven years, but they are not even able to do that.” 

Dr. Roberts goes on to say, “The stocks of gold at the Bank of England seem to be disappearing.  The stocks of many of the gold trusts, such as GLD, are being looted . . . all of this gold is disappearing into Asian markets.  The entire West is being drained of gold.” 

According to Dr. Roberts, this is an inflection point for the gold market.  Dr. Roberts says, “The reason is: the ability to supply large amounts of gold to the bullion dealers to sell has diminished with the supply of gold and silver.  What the Fed did was turn to massive ‘naked shorts’ of gold futures contracts. 

They don’t have the real gold  . . . so they come in and dump contracts, say in a period of 6 minutes, that are three times the amount of gold COMEX has to make delivery. . . . So, it drives down the price of gold.  That’s how they got the price down from $1,900 to $1,250.” 

Roberts contends that America’s gold is “mainly gone.” That’s right, a former Assistant Treasury Secretary who is the father of Reaganomics, says, “They obviously don’t have any because, if they did, they would have given Germany’s gold back.  If they had any, they would let people audit the vaults.” 

Dr. Roberts warns, “The point is the ability to continue selling these ‘naked shorts’ is now disappearing because there is no gold left to back them up. . . . None of these EFT’s has the gold to back the shares.  The ability to continue looting them in order to make good on gold deliveries is running out.  So, this will prevent the Fed from selling ‘naked shorts’ to protect the dollar from its policy of quantitative easing.  That’s what’s it’s all about. 

You can’t print $1,000 billion new dollars every year without causing other holders of dollars to wonder about the value of the money and to seek a way of getting out of it.  China has been doing that by going into gold.” 

On gold holdings, Dr. Roberts argues there are two big reasons why he says, “I don’t think they have any.”  Roberts says, “There is no reason for partial delivery if you have the gold.  There is no reason to sell all these naked shorts if you have the real gold you can dump on the market.” 

Roberts predicts, “If people in the West try to move from dollars into bullion and there’s not any to speak of, then you would see a massive rise in the price.”  Dr. Roberts also predicts, “I think, this year, you are going to see a further downturn in the economy.  The signs are not only that we do not have a recovery, but it’s going to get worse. . . . Christmas sales were very negative.  There’s no growth in people’s income and no jobs. 

So, if the economy goes down further, what does that mean?  It means the deficit widens.  It means they have a greater debt ceiling lift.  They have to have a bigger debt ceiling increase, and all of this will alarm the world.  They’ll say, good heavens, they already had a trillion dollar deficit.  Now it’s gone up, and the Fed can’t stop the quantitative easing without the stock and bond market collapsing.  The banks’ solvency will become an issue. 

So, the world is watching a bigger deficit, more printing of money, and they are likely to start dumping dollars.  When they do that, they’ll say ‘gold, I want gold.’  There’s not much supply to meet demand, and the price has to escalate.  So, I wouldn’t be surprised if that shows up this year.” 
  
Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with economist Dr. Paul Craig Roberts. 

After the interview, Dr. Roberts said, “Here’s another heads up.”  He told me he’s going to post an article from an anonymous insider that will address the question of “estate recovery” contained in Obama Care.  Dr. Roberts charges, “The Affordable Care Act is not affordable and doesn’t provide care.  It’s a way to loot the poorest people and steal whatever assets they have.”  Roberts says the upcoming article will show, “The poorest who are supposed to be helped are herded into Medicaid, where any property they own is subject to estate recovery.”

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