EGYPT REJECTS IMF AND
INDICATED HISTORICAL REALIGNMENT .Monday Sep 16-13
Introduccion
By Hugo Adan
En el BRIEF OVERVIEW al “EL ALGEBRA DE LA
REVOLUCION EN EGIPTO” escrito en Agosto 30 de este anio, indicaba yo lo
siguiente:
Hipótesis
5, La posibilidad de que al-Sisi cambie de posición y se alinee con el
bloque Ruso-Chino son remotas, pero existen. Hay factores de contexto que
podrían generar este alineamiento.
A. La urgente necesidad de tomar control del Gas del Sinaí en manos de
Israel. Esto podría ayudar a balancear la crisis presupuestal de Egipto
B. La Guerra contra Syria, Iran y Libano donde Israel tiene activo
role. Si se desata la guerra y esta deviene regional, la nación no aceptaría que
Al-Sisi se alie con Israel.
C. Al-Sisi ha logrado cierta autonomía de NATO y sus asociados en la
Banca Mundial (IMF) con los prestamos obtenidos de la Liga Arabe (Saudis, Qatar
y Emiratos) y si estos se usan solo para pagar las deudas vencidas al IMF, no serán
ayuda y podría generar conflictos sociales
como la demanda del no pago al IMF. La austeridad y el desempleo no dan para más
y el Gbno tarde o temprano tendrá que gestionar la condonación de la deuda
externa.
D. En el ejército Egipcio aún existen núcleos nazeristas de convicción
nacionalista y AL-SISI podría tener en ellos el respaldo para un Gbno autónomo
frente al Oeste. El nacionalismo
nazerista podría ayudarle a limpiar la imagen de genocida que al-Sisi tiene a
raíz de la masacre de Agosto 14. Si el nazerismo toma fuerza, eso convertiría a
Egipto en un nuevo eje de poder regional, aunque inicialmente le podría traer problemas
con los Saudis, Qatar y Emiratos que apoyan lo que decida EU y NATO, Israel y
aliados en Europa. A Traves de estos EU va a querer imponer sobre Egipto su posición
frente a la guerra regional.
En la
hipothesis 8 indicabamos:
Hipotesis 8. El
nazerismo o nacionalismo de ayer (1950-1970) tuvo propiedades (vitalidad,
fuerza y debilidades) que correspondieron a un sistema global bipolar consolidado
que no existió hasta hace 15 dias. En
los tiempos de Nazer ese bipolarismo fue usado por los nacionalistas y Nazer logró protegerse bajo en umbrela de la URSS.
La URSS invirtió en la represa de Asuan y el proyecto agrario que dio bases sólidas
a la economía Egipcia.
Hoy los problemas son diferentes, Egipto necesita
insertarse en el mercado como productor eficiente y este requiere nueva tecnología
y cambios político-económicos urgentes. Al momento del estallido de la rev -conocida
como “Primavera Arabe”- Egipto no tuvo opciones en el macro-systema mundial.
La
crisis reciente en Syria (la amenaza de bombardeo a este país) genero la
emergencia de un sistema bipolar o multipolar similar al de los tiempos de
Nazer. En este nuevo macro-sistema es posible la emergencia de un nuevo
nacionalismo militar. Decimos nuevo porque tendría características que no tuvo
antes.
El nacionalismo tendrá esta vez que responder a desafíos globales. Sera
por tanto un nacionalismo de contenido internacionalista
y antimperialista. Decimos eso porque tendrá que apuntar a la instalación de una nueva
democracia, autónoma, abierta a un mercado y donde se tendrá que depurar el
neoliberalismo que lideran las trasnacionales y su World Bank, IMF and world trade regulators. Sera por tanto
una democracia de naturaleza antimperialista que no podrá forjarse sin apoyo de
la nación entera. Y esta por supuesto demandara un fuerte control social sobre todas
las políticas internas.
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No esperábamos que Al-Sisi demande tan rápido AUTNOMIA
frente al IMF y la noticia es buena:
EGYPT
REJECTS IMF AND INDICATED HISTORICAL REALIGNMENT .Monday Sep 16-13
Egypt
has rejected that it is seeking an IMF loan and states that the North African
nation is facing an international plot. Analysts expect a historical political
realignment of Egypt, unseen since the country realigned itself, away from the
Soviet Union and towards the USA in the early 1970s.
Christof Lehmann (nsnbc) , – Official
Egyptian sources say that Egypt does not seek to obtain a loan from the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) and stresses that the country is confronted
by an international plot. Egypt is, according to analysts, in the process of a
historic re-orientation, last seen in the early 1970s.
A growing number of international
experts and analysts agree that Egypt is in the process of a historical,
political, geopolitical and military reorientation towards the BRICS
countries, and that Egypt is seeking to assume a position, comparable to the
one it had during the period prior to Egypt´s orientation towards the USA and
away from an alliance with the Soviet Union during the early 1970s.
Egypt´s official government information website informs, that Egypt´s Minister of Industry and Foreign Trade,
Mounir Fkhry Abdel-Nour, has said that the current government does not seek to
obtain a loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Abdel-Nour noted, that the financial
aid Egypt received from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates
and Kuwait, in addition to other resources, are enough to help Egypt overcome
its economic crisis. He stressed, that Egypt is currently facing a plot, which
appears clearly through the terror acts and stances of some international media
outlets against the government and democracy. As nsnbc international reported,
earlier this year, Egypt received:
USD 5 billion from Saudi Arabia, consisting of a USD 1 billion grant, USD 2 billion
deposits in the Central Bank of Egypt, CBE, and USD 2 billion delivered in the
form of oil products. As stated above, while discussing the 1.3 billion
US-aid including the delivery of 20 F-16 fighter jets, all developmental aid is
beneficial for the donor country´s economy. USD 2 billion had been provided by
Saudi Arabia before, that is, after the fall of Mubarak.
USD 4 billion from Kuwait, consisting of a USD 1 billion grant, a USD 2 billion
deposit in the CBE and a USD 1 billion in oil products.
USD 3 billion from the United Arab
Emirates, consisting of a USD 1 billion
grant and a USD 2 billion interest-free deposit in the CBE. Whether the UAE
help ever manifests is questionable. The UAS also pledged USD 3 billion in
October 2011 but never delivered.
Blue Nile Hydroelectric Dam Project
in Ethiopia. Photo courtesy of PRESS TV
Although much misunderstood due to
the above mentioned media campaign in the Qatar based Al-Jazeera, the US TV
channel CNN and similar media, the people-powered military coup in Egypt, and the establishment of
the interim government have countered a predominantly Qatar-backed coup
d´etat in the North African Country.
Had the Morsi administration been
successful at maintaining the grip on power, Egypt would have been co-opted
into a US-led military aggression against the Syrian Arab Republic and a neo-colonialist proxy war against its southern neighbor Ethiopia.
Criticism of Egypt´s military and
the interim government are, among others based on Egypt accepting funds from
Saudi-Arabia. The Saudi readiness to provide funds for Egypt however, must
according to many analysts be interpreted as a Saudi attempt to reassert some
of the regional influence it has lost to Qatar. In 2007, Qatar began
funding a massive pivot of the Muslim Brotherhood in Turkey, Syria,
Libya, Palestine,
as well as in Egypt, in
preparation of the so-called “Arab Spring”. The “Scamble for Foreign Influence” in Egypt was detailed in an
analysis by the author, published in nsnbc international on 12 July.
Many analysts, including the scribe
and historian Webster G. Tarpley,
consider Egypt´s current policy as a political and strategic realignment, away
from US hegemony, and towards BRICS membership and closer relations to Russia,
with a more independent regional foreign policy.
The transition would be a historical
shift, unseen in Egypt since the country shifted its alignment, away from
the former Soviet Union and towards the USA in the early 1970s.
On 16 September,during his first
visit to Russia, Egypt´s Foreign Minister Nabil Fahmy said in an interview with
Moscow News, that Egypt appreciates Russia ”supporting stance to the
Egyptian people´s will”. Fahmy confirmed, that:
“Egyptian foreign policy is seeking
to develop relations with Russia, boost bilateral cooperation and enhance
mutual interests”.
At the sidelines of the G20, BRICS
members decided to capitalize the new Development Bank with 100 billion USD.
Photo courtesy of RIA NOVOSTI, Igor Russak
On Friday, Nabil Fahmy stressed, in
an interview with the Russian RIAN news service, that Egypt appreciates the
Russian initiative with regards to Syria´s chemical weapons, saying:
“If this initiative should be
successful, it would become the most important element for the protection
against the threat of a division of the Middle East, as it occurred after the
first World War. Should a military solution for solving the crisis be chosen,
it would bring the real threat of splitting parts of the Eastern
Mediterranean region”.
With regards to Egypt´s rejection of
claims that the country is seeking an IMF loan, it is noteworthy, that the BRICS member states, at the sidelines of the recent G20 Summit in
St. Petersburg, Russia, have agreed to capitalize the new BRICS
Development Bank with USD 100 billion,
and that the Bank is expeted to assume operations earlier, than it was expected
when the decision to establish the Bank was made during the BRICS Summit in Durban, South Africa.
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