jueves, 9 de diciembre de 2021

DIC 9 2021 P-B ND SIT ECON y POL Part 1 & P 2

 

DIC 9  2021 P-B ND SIT ECON y POL Part 1 & P 2

ND denounce-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco

 

 

ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS

Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

 

Quick News:

RUSSIA: A PROMINENT PLAYER IN THE GLOBAL GOLD MARKET

BY GoldCore

The increase in Russia’s gold reserves is part of a multi-year drive to reduce the countries exposure to US dollars and the Euro.

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GOLDMAN PRIME: TUESDAY WAS THE BIGGEST SHORT SQUEEZE IN 6 MONTHS

by Tyler Durden

Tuesday saw the "largest 1-day global net buying

in 6 months driven by short covers"

Over the weekend, when the market mood was close to suicidal due to the late Friday selloff over Omicron fears, we published a very contrarian take from Goldman's trading desk (never to be confused with Goldman's sellside research which is, sadly, usually quite worthless) and which explained several reasons why the market would rip, chief among them being a huge short squeeze, which is why we urged readers to take the opposite side of the prevailing doom and gloom. One day later, looking at the latest Goldman Prime data, we doubled down on this call, and said late on Monday to "brace for a faceripping short squeeze."

See Chart:

Brace for face ripping short squeeze:

https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1468049452892098566/photo/1

 

Sure enough, Tuesday, December 7 saw markets explode higher with the S&P storming higher by more than 100 points and closing just shy of 4,700 and not too far off its all time high, a dynamic we laid out early on Tuesday in "REKT" - Stocks Storming Higher On Massive Hedge Fund Short Squeeze"

And while Tuesday may seem like ancient history now, some two days later, when the market mood is decidedly more sour following today's Nasdaq pounding, overnight Goldman prime confirmed what we said, writing on December 7 saw the "largest 1-day global net buying in 6 months driven by short covers" with US equities "net bought for a second straight day as managers reduced Macro shorts [zh: i.e. covered] and rotated back to Software stocks."

And the punchline from GS Prime's note, which confirms what we said, namely that Tuesday's "global net buying was driven mainly by short covers, which made up more than 90% of the $ activity."

See Chart:

Emini S&P Futures

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/gS%20prime%202021-12-09_16-33-25.jpg?itok=M6yDGpCF

 

The catalyst behind the furious "face-ripping" squeeze in question was not discussed, but one has to only think to what we said on Monday  in "Stocks Soar After Gartman Says "A Bear Market Is Required" And "Stocks Are Headed Lower"" to have a pretty good idea of what happened.

While of secondary importance, here is a drill down into Tuesday's activity:

  • Macro Products (Index and ETF combined) made up 80% the overall $ net buying (+1.0 SDs), driven entirely by short covers
  • US ETF shorts on the GS Prime book decreased for a second straight day by 2.8% (still up 1.8% week/week), the largest net covering since mid-November.
  • Single Names were modestly net bought (+0.2 SDs), amid risk-on flows with long buys outpacing short sales 1.4 to 1. Info Tech, Real Estate, and Utilities were the most $ net bought sectors, while Comm Svcs, Industrials, and Staples were the most $ net sold.
  • Info Tech stocks were net bought for the first time in 7 days, driven by long buys outpacing short sales 6 to 1.
    • In $ terms, yesterday’s net buying in US Info Tech was the largest since July (+1.3 SDs).
    • IT Services and Software were the most net bought subsectors driven by long buys, while Semis & Semi Equip and Comm Equip were modestly net sold driven by short sales .
    • A fter being heavily net sold in 5 of the previous 6 days, constituents of the High Multiple Software basket (GSCBSF8X) collectively saw the largest 1-day $ net buying in the past three months, driven by long buys and short covers (2.8 to 1), and made up more than 70% of the $ net buying in Info Tech yesterday.
    • US Software long/short ratio now stands at 5.06, which is -11% below the record level of 5.69 seen in early November (in the 71st percentile vs. the past year and in the 94th percentile vs. the past five years).
  • Most $ Net Bought Industries –  IT Services, Automobiles, Software, Internet & Direct Marketing Retail, REITs, Capital Markets, Biotech, Pharmaceuticals
  • Most $ Net Sold Industries – Specialty Retail, Health Care Providers & Svcs, Electrical Equip, Entertainment, Hotels, Restaura

See Charts:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/flows%20dec%207.png?itok=69YAXbY_

 

And while the mystery behind Tuesday's insatiable buying is now clear, the big question is whether today's weakness in the Nasdaq was a fresh wave of shorts entering the market, and just how furious will be tomorrow's squeeze higher if the CPI misses the already sky-high expectations.

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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-prime-tuesday-was-biggest-short-squeeze-6-months

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STRESS IS ALIVE... 

by The Market Ear

35 handles below all time highs..

NASDAQ - stuck with rising volatility

NASDAQ is basically flat since early November. Sure volatility has increased, but the index itself has been stuck inside a range (with one big up and one big down move). For the longer term crowd, overwriting offers interesting set ups for earning that extra yield (Apple is one of those candidates, here). Outright protection via long vol stays rather rich...unless you believe the market is about to sell off violently.

See Chart:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/unnamed_117.png?itok=dFaaODwu

 

What do bulls need in order to get excited?

It looks like the furious squeeze in equities was not enough to pump up the bulls in the latest AAII sentiment reading. The pop higher in the AAII bullish readings is tiny...

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/unnamed%20%281%29_78.png?itok=TLtEgLyW

 

Seen the "real" stuff lately?

SPX real earnings yield at negative 2.33%. Real US average hourly wage growth at negative 1.43% and real 30 year mortgage rate at negative 3.11%

See Chart:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/unnamed%20%282%29_70.png?itok=1DBUGBbE

 

An see this one too::

REAL US Average hourly wage growth

See Chart

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/unnamed%20%283%29_64.png?itok=X8QnXf9R

 

Fed going for the heavy tool box?

Nordea have been spot on when it comes to predicting the surge in inflation. Below are the main points to focus on going forward:

1. Core inflation to print at 5.1% with upside risk

2. Headline inflation to reach 6.6% YoY (highest since 1982)

3. The Fed will double down on the tapering speed at the FOMC on December 14-15

4. First hike due at June 2022

5. Stay long USD as the Fed is going to hawk things up

 

Pricing of hikes has recently shot up higher as people adjust to their expectations, but we still ask ourselves if it is time for some VIX longs soon? Let's see how they "treat" VIX closer to Fed...

See Charts:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/unnamed%20%284%29_62.png?itok=G8BERnbP

 

This one too:

The self-fulfilling prophecy of consumer behavior leads to more inflationary preasure

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/unnamed%20%285%29_58.png?itok=H8qnQzEH

 

What chance of a rate hike AND WHEN:

See Chart:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/unnamed%20%286%29_55.png?itok=_Spu9Ee0

 

It's not only an equity (stress) thing

VIX has crashed since the recent panic highs, but it remains well above the levels we saw in late Oct/ early Nov. Note that this hasn't been an equity stress only. US credit protection, CDX IG, has seen the biggest uptick in a long time.

Our own VIX guy gave us the sell vol signal close to recent panic VIX highs. Let's see how stress develops going into Fed, but our "optimal" scenario would be to get vols even lower and then look at Fed vol trades. (The pick up in CDX IG in Sep is the contract roll).

See Chart:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/unnamed%20%287%29_52.png?itok=jW6lc00m

See more interesting charts at:

SOURCE:  https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/stressalive

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"POTENTIAL POLAR VORTEX EVENT" COULD SPARK BULLISH REVERSAL IN NATGAS 

"Long UNG Equity." 

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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS

Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption.

 

AMERICA'S PUBLIC EDUCATION SYSTEM IS COLLAPSING AS TEACHERS' UNIONS FORCE SCHOOLS TO CLOSE

Parents simply can't cope with all these cancellations as remote learning appears to become a permanent part of the curriculum.

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UNIVERSITY SHIELDING BIDEN'S RECORDS MUST PROVIDE MORE INFORMATION JUSTIFYING DECISION: COURT

Tara Reade, who accused Biden of sexually assaulting her in 1993 at a Capitol Hill building, has said that she believes a workplace discrimination and harassment complaint she filed against Biden at the time may be in the records...

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IF migrants work and pay taxes  WHY NOT?

NEW YORK CITY DEMS PASS BILL ALLOWING NON-CITIZENS TO VOTE

The bill that will let more than 800,000 residents who aren’t U.S. citizens vote in municipal elections...

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MAINE GOVERNOR ACTIVATES NATIONAL GUARD TO HELP AT HOSPITALS AFTER MANDATE FORCED OUT HUNDREDS

One of the most-vaccinated states in the country, Maine has seen COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations increase in recent weeks

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Because COVID like beautiful people

SCIENTISTS MAY HAVE DISCOVERED WHY COVID HITS FAT PEOPLE HARDER

"The more fat mass, and in particular visceral fat mass, the worse your inflammatory response..."

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ENVIRONMENTAL "ACTIVIST" EXXON INVESTORS ARE NOW TARGETING THE CEO, DESPITE COMPANY'S RECENT PROGRESS CURBING EMISSIONS

Are they ever going to be happy?

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US-WORLD  ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)

Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis, D rest in limbo

 

Risk of WW3?

US HEADED TOWARD "CUBAN MISSILE CRISIS" SITUATION OVER UKRAINE: KREMLIN

Thursday witnessed a dire 'close call' between Ukraine & Russian vessels in the Kerch Strait...

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BEIJING SCRAMBLES TO HAMMER YUAN, SETS FIXING AT WEAKEST ON RECORD VS ESTIMATES

Will Beijing soon use cryptocurrencies as an FX release valve?

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SPUTNIK NEWS :  https://sputniknews.com/

- Italian Priest Gets 3 Years in Prison for Stealing Church's Money for Drugs, Gay Orgies

- Teacher-Turned Nuclear Submarine Spy Says Wanted to Flee Because of Trump, Not Arrest

- Kyle Rittenhouse, Dubbed ‘White Supremacist’ by Biden, Wants to Tell POTUS ‘Facts of What Happened’

- Trump Claims 'Somebody' in Obama Admin. Gave Out US Hypersonic Missile Secrets to Russia & China

- Conversion Therapy Banned in Canada After Bill Passes in Senate

- US Senate Passes Measure to Set Up Final Vote to Raise Debt Ceiling as Soon as Next Week

- US Court Denies Trump Appeal to Stop House Probe From Getting White House Records

- Nicaragua Ends Diplomatic Relations With Taiwan, Recognizes 'There Is Only One China'

- Amtrak to Temporarily Cut Some Services Over Vaccine Mandate

- Chilean President Signs Law Legalizing Same-Sex Marriage

- Biden ‘Corrects’ Declaration of Independence During His ‘Summit For Democracy’

- US Threatens Additional Measures Against Iran if Diplomacy Fails

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DIC 9  2021 PART 2 ND SIT EC y POL SPANISH  ++  

 

REBELION

Ecuad :  Quito: entre Madre Patria y «leyenda negra»  J J. Paz-y-M C

Mund: Occid creo condic que obligan a iraquíes, iraníes y sirios a uzar

US:  Ómicron, inflación mund y posib suba de tasas de interés  Lucia O

Chile: Natacha? policía investig asesinat de la activista Javiera Rojas

Video R  REIR, LLORAR O INDIGNARSE? https://youtu.be/icjLdvXTzwo

Perú  REFLEXIÓN DE COYUNTURA   Milcíades Ruiz

BRA:  LA «MALDICIÓN» DE LOS VICEPRESIDENTES  Valerio Arcay

Chile: Se aprobó el matrimonio igualitario: un paso histórico   Pág 12

Cuba:  LA HERENCIA MARTIANA EN RETAMAR   Cristóbal León

España:  LIDERAZGOS PARA LA NUEVA ETAPA   Antonio Antón

MX: El zapatismo vive: “Nos hemos propuesto cambiar el mundo” JM

US:   BIDEN Y LOS 110 DEMÓCRATAS  Iñaki Gil

UE:  ZEMMOUR, LE PEN Y EL ANTIFASCISMO   Ugo Palheta

Mundo:  ELECCIONES Y RENOVACIÓN DE “SERVILES”  M R. F

África:  ¿POR QUÉ ÁFRICA?    Williams Brown

Rojava: «El desarrollo cultural depende del espacio de libertad»  O C

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RT EN ESPAÑOL

Rusia denuncia: buque ucraniano dirigiéndose hacia el estrecho de Kerch  https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/413162-buque-ucraniano-donbass-estrecho-kerch

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Vacuna de Pfizer no ofrecen protección contra la variante ómicron   https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/413170-director-biontech-dosis-vacuna-pfizer

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Senado acusa a Pedro Castillo por modificar la "constitucion" sobre presupuesto https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/413171-presentar-acusacion-constitucional-pedro-castillo

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Parlamento de Ecuador abre debate de ley para garantiz aborto en caso de violación https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/413161-ecuador-asamblea-nacional-aborto-violacion

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Biden prometió parar la guerra en Yemen, pero sigue "peor que nunca"  https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/413112-biden-parar-maquina-guerra-yemen

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Rusia actualiza sus submarinos nucleares de tercera generación  https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/413136-rusia-actualiza-submarinos-nucleares-leopard

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Un comerciant de criptomoneda obtiene 3.200 % de ganancia en 1 sola transacción https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/413167-comerciante-criptomonedas-beneficia-3200-sola

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Rechazan la inclusión de Mario Vargas Llosa en la Academia Francesa   https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/413160-intelectuales-rechazan-inclusion-mario-vargas-llosa-academia

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Presentan en US un dron de ataque a tierra que no necesita pistas de aterrizaje https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/413150-video-eeuu-presentan-dron-mojave

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Coche eléctrico: ¿solución a la contaminación o nuevos retos para el ecosistema? https://actualidad.rt.com/video/413133-coche-solucion-contaminacion-retos-ecosistema

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CROSS TALK   https://www.rt.com/shows/crosstalk/

Hughes

APPLE'S MULTI-BILLION DOLLAR 'BRIBE' TO DO BUSINESS IN CHINA

Tim Cook of Apple committed to paying to $279 billion in China in 2016, much of it in the form of state-controlled Chinese firms, which is par for the course in China's "pay-to-play" regard for who is allowed to do business there. But, as "Boom Bust" co-host Ben Swann explains, Apple has still to recoup the astronomical sum

SOURCE:  https://www.rt.com/shows/news-views-hughes/542745-apples-multi-billion-dollar-bribe/

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GLOBAL RESEARCH

Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies

- Vaccine Mandates Result from the Abuse of True Science By Dr. Birsen Filip

- The Farce and Diabolical Agenda of A “Universal Lockdown” By Peter Koenig,

- The Putin-Modi Summit: A Global Geostrategic Game-Changer? A Balancing Alliance By Andrew Korybko

- Olympics: US Boycott . Actually “Who Is Boycotting Whom?” By Peter Koenig

- What Putin Really Told Biden By Pepe Escobar

- Building a Pretext to Wage War on Russia By Rick Rozoff,

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DEMOCRACY NOW

Amy Goodman’  team

- “An Outrage”: House Passes Largest Military Budget in Generations Despite End of Afghanistan War

- “Your Debt Is Someone Else’s Asset”: Calls Mount to Cancel Debt & Halt Wealth Transfer to the Rich

- How Europe’s “Shadow Immigration System” Pays Libyan Militias to Jail Migrants in Brutal Conditions

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