DIC 10 2021 P-B ND SIT ECON y POL Part 1 & P 2
ND denounce-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
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FIVE MILLION AMERICANS IN PATH FOR POSSIBLE TORNADOES FRIDAY NIGHT
"LIVE update from western TN ahead of a significant nocturnal tornado outbreak expected TONIGHT across a large zone..."
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ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
Quick News:
THE FED IS ABOUT TO START PLAYING WITH MATCHES NEXT TO A $30 TRILLION DEBT BOMB
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OMI-GONE? STOCKS SOAR AS SCARIANT & CPI SEND BONDS, BITCOIN, & THE BUCK LOWER ON THE WEEK
by Tyler Durden
...two weeks to slow the spread (of hysteria or euphoria)..
It has been two weeks since the deadly (no one has died anywhere in the world) new COVID variant - Omicron - and only The Dow has managed to shrug off the constant fearmongering and panicky policy-making to 'slow the spread' of this "mild" virus...
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2021-12-10_12-05-23.jpg?itok=N9ljdUcN
Small Caps are notably ugly since Omicron was unleashed on the world. But this week saw the S&P rip to its best week since February as Goldman's melt-up appears to have come true...
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2021-12-10_12-47-10.jpg?itok=-9DRbK8B
I guess I place these charts yesterday
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AND JUST LIKE THAT, INFLATION IS ABOUT TO DISAPPEAR?
by Tyler Durden
"Starting in January 2022, weights for the Consumer Price Index will be calculated based on consumer expenditure data from 2019-2020."
Earlier this year, when inflation was still "transitory" two Fed chairs, Powell and Bernanke, made comments which we joked only make sense if the definition of inflation is changed
Sadly, our feeble attempts at humor were not unjustified, and as any economic history buff knows the US dramatically changed how it calculates consumer inflation back in the 1980s, an event extensively covered by AllianceBernstein former chief economist Joseph Carson on this website in the past (see "Consumer Price Inflation: Facts vs. Fiction") with the most important difference being that while the CPI of the 1970s included house price inflation, the current measure does not. Instead, home price pressures have been swept in the purposefully nebulous Owner-Equivalent Rent which can be whatever politicians wants it to be (there have been other definitional changes, see here, here, here and here for more). Bottom line, however, is that if today's CPI did include house prices in its measurement, the currently reported inflation numbers for house price inflation would push CPI (and core CPI) to double-digit gains.
Of course, it is politically inconvenient to report true inflation is - just see what happens in any banana republic where society is fed up with runaway inflation. It's also why politicians on both sides of the aisle are always eager to tweak the definition of inflation ever so slightly (or not so slightly) so it appears to be less than it truly is. After all, for them masking reality is a matter of political survival.
In any case, what we though this summer was just a joke appears to be coming true, because as the BLS has reported, starting next month it will adjust the weights for its Consumer Price Index basket, which will be calculated "based on consumer expenditure data from 2019-2020." Alas, there is no further detail on this critical topic, although we will take any bet that post-revision reported inflation will drop because, well, "adjustments."
See Chart:
US BUREAU OF LABOR STATTISTICS
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/cpi%20weight%20update.jpg?itok=RL2NONUq
In the same press release, we also read that "the BLS considered interventions, but decided to maintain normal procedures"... whatever those are. Said otherwise, the BLS may not be "intervening" for now, but when the inflationary rubber hits the road next year with the midterms coming up fast and Dems ratings still in the dumps, we doubt that the BLS will have any qualms to "intervene."
Incidentally, this "update" may explain the conviction behind Biden's statement today: in a statement after the blistering hot CPI report came out...
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/cpi%20yoy%20dec%202021_0.jpg?itok=DQdnIYo8
... Joe Biden said that despite experiencing the most rapid inflation in almost 40 years in November, U.S. price increases are slowing, in particular for gasoline and cars.
“Today’s numbers reflect the pressures that economies around the world are facing as we emerge from a global pandemic -- prices are rising... But developments in the weeks after these data were collected last month show that price and cost increase are slowing, although not as quickly as we’d like,” he said. Biden's chief of staff Ronald Klain chimed in too.
Well, all that prices needs to slow "as quickly as we'd like" at least in government reports such as the CPI, is for the BLS to give them a gentle nudge lower.
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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/and-just-inflation-about-disappear
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BOFA: "THE BUBBLE IN SPECULATIVE FROTH HAS POPPED RESULTING IN EPIC DIVERGENCES"
64% of 23% YTD gain in Nasdaq (3780 stocks) DOWN TO JUST 5 stocks - Microsoft/Google/Apple/Nvidia/Tesla.
See Chart of the US Econ debacle
When you open the title above
Because the content of this article is so good
But it is prohibited to you if not member.
That is that Tyler Durden, its author, said.
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everything is awesome…
SPX ATH and VIX
Time for that chart again. VIX HAS CRASHED SINCE LAST FRIDAY, but vs a new SPX ATH it is still not "cheap". Go figure...
See Chart
Closing SPX and VIX on each data when the SPX hit a New all-time high
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/unnamed_120.png?itok=wIr98bQN
Even bond volatility is falling
You know things are "awesome" when even bond volatility, MOVE, is moving lower. Note that despite bond vol down from recent highs, the gap vs VIX is once again back to very wide levels.
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/unnamed%20%281%29_80.png?itok=YKnL535Q
Thin thin market
The Nasdaq is up 21.17% YTD. AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, TSLA & NVDA are the top 5 return contributors YTD. Excluding the top 5 contributors, the Nasdaq is up 5.79% this year - just an average year. Not a "bull market in everything"..
See Chart:
YTD Nasdag with and without the top 5 contributors
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/unnamed%20%282%29_72.png?itok=F7PLz3EX
Potential for more buybacks (Dawn)
US buybacks are more encouraging this year, after a very subdued 2020. Buybacks as a share of profits are still low.
See Chart:
S&P 500 buyback as a % of EBIT
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/unnamed%20%283%29_66.png?itok=iZn5RoTf
Dry Powder
While industry fundraising declined to $480bn in 2020 (from +$1tn in 2018), dry powder increased in 2020 to $2.4tn. Industry total AUM (fair value + dry powder) has grown at a 15% CAGR over the last five years to more than $7.5tn. Meanwhile, industry deployment reached a new record of $880bn in 2020 despite the challenging investment environment.
See Chart:
Industry Dry Powder ($ B)
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/unnamed%20%284%29_64.png?itok=mWeSRQjM
EM as the top macro trade for 2022
JPM has the long EM trade as one of the top macro trades for next year. EM has had many problems in 2021 (was the top trade for many earlier this year): China slowdown, tightening, inflation overhang, FX weakness and the corona headwind. JPM argues this is now all priced in and they see EM beating DM next year. They write:
1. EM valuations are cheap and trade at a wider than historical discount to DM
2. expect the phase-out of US exceptionalism and convergence of the EM growth, valuation multiple, and reopening differentials vs. DM
3. constructive on China equities
4. EM remains under-owned by global investors
They recommend the 6 months ATM call switch (long EEM vs short SPX calls) for around zero cost. EEM volatility remains relatively low vs SPX vol.
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/unnamed%20%285%29_60.png?itok=F9oKxffC
See also this Chart:
EEM less SPX volatility spread is low
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/unnamed%20%286%29_57.png?itok=bDXmLsUm
Most of the oil panic is now gone
Remember the explosion in oil volatility, OVX, in early December? OVX has retraced most of the move. When it comes to energy "fear", VXXLE, the entire move higher has now been "fixed".
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/unnamed%20%287%29_54.png?itok=ZYEEVTlu
ETH - will shitty liquidity lead to (even) more volatility?
ETH is trading just below the huge 4k level. Noteworthy is the fact liquidity is getting worse. Nothing extreme (yet), but we could be facing more "erratic" moves going forward (both ways). Note 1 week vols continue pushing new recent highs...
See Chart:
Liquidity = Volatility
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/unnamed%20%288%29_52.png?itok=CbD5fnna
Omicron: still mild symptoms
Currently, NTC have 337 COVID patients but only 11% are oxygenated (points to low acuity) at similar points in previous waves NTC had > 2,000 patients. In the Omicron wave, in contrast to previous waves, ~78% of NTC’s admissions have been below 50yrs of age (cf lower vaccination rate in this group) and average length of stay has been only 3 days, half that of previous waves. So far, mortality at NTC facilities has been 1.2% of those admitted vs 12-20% of patients in previous waves. (Comments from Dr. Richard Friedland CEO of Netcare, South Africa’s largest private hospital group)
Omicron - not out of the woods yet
Mizuho's chief market economist reminds us of three points worth having in the back of your head.
1. Omicron is unlikely to be the final variant - nations with low vaccinations will likely see high numbers of new infections...opportunities to new mutations...could give us more "headache"
2. The public tends to support prompt preventative action - closing down borders...preventative measures constrain economic activity
3. Europe was in the grip of a new wave even before the emergence of Omicron - think temperature delta and as Mizuho writes "ignoring official recommendations on mask-wearing."
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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/hodath
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OMI-GONE? STOCKS SOAR AS SCARIANT & CPI SEND BONDS, BITCOIN, & THE BUCK LOWER ON THE WEEK
...two weeks to slow the spread (of hysteria or euphoria)...
US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption.
Is the SC above the US Constitution? Or, they have to RESPECT IT?
SUPREME COURT WILL HAVE TO DECIDE CALIFORNIA GUN LAW [ don’t have to ]
“We are filing to stay the issue, to get cert with the Supreme Court,”
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The access of guns to kids should be avoided and parents penalized if happens, but every US family house’ owner has the right to protect them with guns. It will be STUPID for Americans to Wait for the police to do so.
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Plan to contin killing USD? The issue is ‘private greet vs public need’. Plan t kill= idiocy
PLANS FOR NEW NYC CASINO INCLUDE "WORLD'S LARGEST CRYPTOCURRENCY TRADING FLOOR"
The project, slated to cost more than $3 billion, will also include a eSports arena and space to host events like New York's Fashion Week.
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It is unbillable to see Americans train to kill American values.
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...government policies of mass dollar debasement are what really stimulates barbarism. Spineless money produces spineless people...
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Why young people adopt socialist ideologies? Main cause is nasty capitalist crisis
YOUNG PEOPLE TURN TO COLLECTIVISM BECAUSE OF THESE PSYCHOLOGICAL DISPARITIES
Are Americans changing with the times, are the times changing with Americans, or, has nothing really changed at all in the past century?
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With or without mask the main point is to take care of own immune system
NEW YORK WILL REQUIRE MASKS AT ALL INDOOR BUSINESSES THAT DON'T HAVE VACCINE REQUIREMENT
This newest mandate, designed to combat increased virus spread at a time when people are spending more time indoors, will be in place through Jan. 15 when the state plans to re-evaluate its effectiveness.
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JILL BIDEN INSISTS POTUS'S BRAIN ISN'T SCRAMBLED EGGS
by Tyler Durden
For the second time in less than 18 months, Jill Biden has insisted that her husband, the sitting President of the United States, is mentally fit to serve.
In an interview with CBS' Rita Braver at Camp David, the First Lady dismissed recent polls indicating that Americans have questions about Joe Biden's mental fitness.
The full interview will air on Sunday.
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/jill-biden-insists-potuss-brain-isnt-scrambled-eggs
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Could be FALSE FLAG to denigrate them, but IF call in states BLM has strong pwr is OK
BLACK LIVES MATTER CALLS FOR XMAS BOYCOTT OF "WHITE COMPANIES"
Is it racist to encourage supporters to boycott businesses based on the skin color of their owners...
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It is more than racism to encourage sabotage to CHINA olympics
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis, D rest in limbo
The best News of the Month, so far
UN CHIEF ACCEPTS INVITATION TO BEIJING WINTER OLYMPICS DESPITE DIPLOMATIC BOYCOTTS
"...his two immediate predecessors have attended almost every Olympic Game since at least 2002..."
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Yes: THIS IS THE BEST NEWS OF THE MONTH, so far. It is a severe blow to US imperialist boycott. Only those countries that don’t practice sports can follow such stupidity, just coming from the country that committed many genocides worldwide before & after VietNam war (the image of the little girl burned by US Napal bombs comes to mind). US Empire was defeat in Vietnam & will be defeated in China Olympics next year, not US young sportive but US as empire in political terms. I’m American and I send my sincere applause to UN Chief. I will try to go to China for the Olympics, if I get money. Hugo Adan Zegarra.
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Biden’s full plate is to attack RU-CN. Their plan: 9 stat in US + UK banks n nuke C + NAT
BIDEN'S FULL PLATE: UKRAINE, TAIWAN, TEHRAN
His guiding principle in dealing with Russia, China and Iran should be a simple one: Consistent with securing the vital national interests of the USA, keep us out of what Winston Churchill called “unnecessary wars.”
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WW3 with not winners (only genocide, total destruction in both sides) means that WW3 is obsolete. The real issue for debate among super-powers is the dismantle of nuke worldwide. The rest is military stupidity.
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WORLD ECONOMY ENTERING PERIOD OF OIL SCARCITY, HALLIBURTON CEO SAYS
Jeff Miller warns that global oil supply could soon be surpassed by demand for the indefinite future...
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US SETS 1-WEEK DEADLINE TO SEE IF IRAN TALKS ADVANCE AS ISRAEL PUSHES MILITARY OPTION: REPORT
Psaki: "The president has asked his team to be prepared in the event that diplomacy fails and we must turn to other options."
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SPUTNIK NEWS : https://sputniknews.com/
- Assange's Pardon Depends on 'Massive Protests by Ordinary People'
- India Set to Begin Supplying Workforce for Russian Shipyards
- Daesh Takes Credit for 2 Explosions in Kabul, Reports Say
- At Least 2 Killed, 5 Injured After Tornado Hits Arkansas and Illinois
- Kanye West's Publicist Pressured Georgia Election Worker After Trump Accused Her of Fraud
-Italian Bishop in Hot Water After Telling Children Santa Is Product of Coca-Cola Marketing
- 'Bidenflation' Hits 40-Year High With POTUS' Approval Rating on Economy Falling
- Biden Signs Bill to Fast-Track Process to Raise US Debt Limit
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DIC 10 2021 PART 2 ND SIT EC y POL SPANISH ++
REBELION
LULA: «En Brasil acabamos con el hambre el 2012, hoy 19 mill vuelven al hambre»
Irak: Los libertadores de Mosul se convirtieron en ocupantes Judit Neurink
Mund: Peligro: ROBO DE CEREBROS Y RECURSOS HUMANOS H López
Ecol S: HACIA CONTROL POPULAR DEL AGUA Y EL PETRÓLEO Pablo Corso
ALC: Luis Lacalle provoca al pueblo… y el pueblo uruguayo responde N C
Perú: CAE LA INTENCIÓN GOLPISTA Cesar Robles
Hondur: libertad sindical “NOS ESTÁN DEVOLVIENDO LA ESPERANZA” GT
ARG: DOS MARCHAS, CAMINOS OPUESTOS Daniel Campione
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RT EN ESPAÑOL
Preso politico condena el fallo de extraditar a Assange a EE.UU https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/413275-snowden-condena-veredicto-extradicion-assange-eeuu
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Lenín Moreno "negocio con la cabeza de Assange" para facilitar su extradición al US https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/413274-corr ea-entrevista-extradicion-assange-
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Fundadores y directores ejecutivos de empresas USA venden sus acciones a niveles sin precedentes https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/413280-ceos-empresas-eeuu-venden-acciones-niveles-record
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CROSS TALK https://www.rt.com/shows/crosstalk/
Ukraine crisis: Cold War 2 between Russia and US MORE dangerous than Cold War 1
On this episode of Going Underground, we speak to Richard Sakwa, professor of Russian and European politics at the University of Kent. He discusses the summit between Putin and Biden over the Ukraine crisis, the unresolved issues at the end of ‘Cold War 1’ that led to ‘Cold War 2’ between the US and Russia, NATO expansion towards Russia’s borders contrary to promises made prior to the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the threat of nuclear war
SOURCE: https://www.rt.com/shows/going-underground/542827-ukraine-crisis-cold-war2/
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO allies
- US Wins Appeal over Extradition of WikiLeaks Founder Assange By Al-Jazeera
- Reuters Chairman Is Top Investor and Board Member of Pfizer By E Mangiaracina
- US Imperialism and the Larger Context of the Kyle Rittenhouse Case By V Montes
- Oxygen Deprivation Mask Syndrome Now Sweeping Across the Globe By S.D. Wells
- Ten Contradictions that Plague Biden’s Democracy Summit By Medea Benjamin
- Macron’s Revenge for AUKUS Betrayal By M. K. Bhadrakumar
- Yes, It’s a “Killer Vaccine”: By Michel Chossudovsky
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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’ team
- “Hold the Line”: Watch Filipina Journalist Maria Ressa’s Full Nobel Peace Prize Acceptance Speech
- “The Forever Prisoner”: Alex Gibney on How Patient Zero of CIA’s Torture Program Still Held at Gitmo
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