DIC 15 2021 P-B ND SIT ECON y POL Part 1 & P 2
ND denounce-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
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Quick News:
COVID PROPAGANDA ROUNDUP: AMERICAN HEART ASSOCIATION’S VACCINE WARNING IS CENSORED
The latest updates on the “new normal” – chronicling the lies, distortions, and abuses by the ruling class.
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ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
Fake news?
JIM BOVARD: HOW I ROBBED THE WORLD BANK
Exposing a fondness for dictators
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BANK STRATEGIST: "THERE IS SOMETHING SERIOUSLY WRONG WITH THE ECONOMY'S POTENTIAL"
by Tyler Durden
The supply side is anything but "gangbusters", more reminiscent of a "secular stagnation" paradigm instead. This in turn prevents the market from aggressively repricing terminal rates: either supply recovers, pushing inflation back down...
Deutsche Bank's chief FX strategist George Saravelos attended a global investor "virtual lunch" today, and the below 4 points are a summary of the key discussion points.
1. IF YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND SUPPLY, YOU CAN'T UNDERSTAND THIS MARKET.
Most commentators have insisted on adopting an excess demand framework throughout the year: "too much" stimulus leads to overheating demand, inflation and eventually a bond market implosion. While the post-COVID rebound has undoubtedly been strong, we have been arguing for months that this framework is incomplete. First, it ignores the large ongoing negative supply shock in the new COVID "normal": consider that the US still has a negative output gap and yet inflation has already accelerated to a forty-year high. Consider that the US working age population is shrinking for the first time since WWII. Consider that US productivity last quarter shrunk at its fastest pace in more than half a century. Consider that looking under the hood, capex is disappointing. Bottom line, the supply side is anything but "gangbusters", more reminiscent of a "secular stagnation" paradigm instead. This in turn prevents the market from aggressively repricing terminal rates: either supply recovers, pushing inflation back down – or, if it doesn’t, it means there is something seriously wrong with the economy’s potential.
2. WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT EXCESS SAVING TOO.
The second "post COVID normal" is structurally higher saving rates. Individuals may be spending a lot on goods but a) they aren't doing so on services and b) they are saving even more. Yes, everyone loves bitcoin but also consider that the year has seen one of the biggest retail inflows into bond funds on record and huge bank buying of bonds recycling customer deposits. Consider that European capital outflows are at a record being sucked back into the US bond market while the US current account deficit has failed to widen materially. If this were simply liquidity hoarding, people wouldn’t be buying bonds – and global capital wouldn't be attracted to the US bond market. Note that low labor supply and high excess saving may well be part of the same story: individuals are showing a growing preference for leisure over work, requiring higher equilibrium savings. The consumer signal is also aligned with a highly inverted yield curve. All of the above fits in with a market pricing of a low r*: massive excess saving keeps term premia depressed; weak supply keeps terminal rates low – both in line with the historical post-pandemic experience of the last thousand years.
3. THE DOLLAR WILL BE A KEY BAROMETER.
A flattening yield curve as a result of the forces above is historically dollar supportive and we’ve been more positive on the greenback over the last six months. How far the dollar can go, however, critically depends on the driver of the flatness: high precautionary saving and weak supply versus too much post-COVID liquidity that ultimately has to be withdrawn. If it is weak supply, the dollar move will not run for that much longer; the economy and financial conditions will tighten quicker than expected or supply will come back into line, giving the Fed some time. If it is excess liquidity keeping the S&P "too" high and bond yields "too" low, the Fed will have to keep going and tighten financial conditions more than expected: either equities will have to go down – or, if they don't, the dollar should rally more as it becomes a high-yielder. The dollar-equity correlation would flip positive and this would not be helpful for EM FX.
Between the two competing narratives, regular readers will be aware of our emphasis on the more pessimistic side of the story for more than six months now. Both scenarios are dollar positive but the pessimistic one ultimately constrains dollar strength. Our EUR/USD forecasts next year assume an additional 50bps of re-pricing in the US front-end equivalent to a 1.08-1.10 EUR/USD equilibrium but not much more. We worry this would be enough to invert the US yield curve and have a bigger impact on commodities than assumed; we are bearish oil in 2022.
4. BEWARE OMICRON AND CHINA.
Many in recent weeks have asked whether omicron is a "game changer" for the outlook. Our view is that market pricing is here because of the persistence of COVID this year not despite it, and therefore omicron is likely to aggravate all preexisting trends: too much consumption of goods over services, low neutral, inflation for bad reasons, strong dollar, flattening US yield curve. We are especially worried about what omicron means for China. The zero-COVID policy has not been tested under a far more transmissible strain and the level of disruption that may be needed to maintain containment may entail even greater supply disruption than what has been seen so far this year. As far as FX goes, while recent policy actions out of China (the RRR FX increase, higher fixings and greater emphasis on growth) all signal greater official dissatisfaction with CNY strength, it can only be a policy shift towards greater capital outflows (QDII, "wealth connect") that would be the true game changer.
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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bank-strategist-there-something-seriously-wrong-economys-potential
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption.
THE FED IS FLIPPING- MASSIVE POLICY ERROR
The Fed has made a massive policy error! Will this mean higher inflation and a catastrophic impact on the economy?
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Quick News 2
They're idiots alright...
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THE LANCET SCOLDS THOSE CLAIMING "PANDEMIC OF THE UNVACCINATED"
Pandemic of propagandists..
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PONDERING PANDEMIA, POLITICS, & POLICY MISTAKES IN 2022 (BUT THE CREDIT MARKET IS THE BIGGEST RISK)
Authored by Bill Blain via MorningPorridge.com,
At its core the credit market is broken... something is fundamentally wrong
Let me present a list of things to worry about next year: Inflation, US and China growth, Stagflation, Central Banks, Stocks, Climate and Equality, etc, etc.. BUT the big risks will be the consequences of US Politics and a Liquidity Meltdown in the Credit Markets.
HERE A NUMBER OF MAIN THEMES..
- Inflation will not be transitory – it will grind away at savings as wage demands, labour shortages, supply chain instability, and energy costs undermine the global economy.
- Two economies matter – the US will do relatively well. China is going to suffer from major energy dislocation, deepening the global supply chain crisis. Europe – really? UK – please…
- There is a moderate probability of stagflation – recession plus inflation.
- Central Banks have limited choices: destroy the global economy long-term by doing nothing to unwind monetary distortion, or destroy the global economy now by normalising interest rates. (Basically..)
- Stock markets are not at record levels because of productivity gains or soaring earnings, but because money has been overly cheap and central banks accommodative – fuelling the rally. Mean reversion is not a risk – it’s a rule.
- Credit spreads don’t reflect current real risks, which will magnify as rates rise – Credit Markets are my number one pick for a chronic liquidity crisis.
- Too much easy money and minimal returns have fuelled massive speculation, financial asset inflation, crushed returns and is generating a pensions crisis.
- FOMO and social media pressure reached a crescendo with retail desperately gambling on meme stocks and praying that crypto will make them rich. Hope is never an investment strategy.
- Politics – especially in the US – will have major consequences for markets.
- Regulatory risk in terms of tech and finance are substantial.
- Climate change is now recognised as a major risk – policy makers will act.
- Inequality is an even larger risk – policy makers are unlikely to act.
Let’s start with the big known unknown: DYSFUNCTIONAL US POLITICS.
Trump took the White House and left the US bitterly divided and fractional with 70% of his party convinced the election was “stolen”. Biden failed to pass any meaningful legislation on this issue. Democrats are beating themselves. There is no Democratic party as such, just different interest groups sailing in different directions.
The US is morphing towards a one-party “democratic-state”, or even a Trump dynasty, markets will probably embrace it, looking forward to tax breaks, subsidies and protections, and a push-back on anti-oil and climate change programmes. Long-term the consequences of a shift to an isolationist right-wing US on geopolitics will be immense.
Continue reading at:
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Are we walking to OPEN FASCISM
SENIOR CARDINAL WARNS ELITES USHERING IN "TOTAL CONTROL SURVEILLANCE STATE" THROUGH COVID
“People, who sit on the throne of their wealth,” are seizing an “opportunity to push through their agenda.”
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RU-CH have similar NUKE power & the capacity to respond immediately to US attack
WILL AMERICA'S NEW NUKE DETER WAR, OR BRING IT ON?
Authored by Bruce Wilds via Advancing Time blog,
this bomb may be the most dangerous nuclear weapon in America's arsenal.
In a bit of irony, a Twitter comment by Jill Hruby Administrator of the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) pointed to a new nuclear bomb as proof America is committed to nuclear deterrence. This is where it is important to remember that deterrence means, the action of discouraging an action or event through instilling doubt or fear of the consequences. See her Twitter post below
Twitter BLOCKED by US FASCISM
It could be argued that reworking a nuclear bomb to make it easier to justify using it and widening out the opportunities for its use is nothing to brag about. This all falls under the category of, "once it's out of the bottle it will be hard to put back in."
The B61-12 Is Light And Accurate
An article in The National Interest on October 9th, 2018 by Zachary Keck indicates this bomb may be the most dangerous nuclear weapon in America's arsenal. The combination of accuracy and low-yield make the B61-12 the most usable nuclear bomb in America’s arsenal. It also makes using nuclear weapons thinkable for the first time since the 1940s.
To be clear, the reason it is such a monster is not because of its power. The bomb has a maximum yield of just 50-kilotons, the equivalent of 50,000 tons of TNT. By contrast, the B83 nuclear bomb has a maximum yield of 1.2 megatons which is 24 times greater. The B61-12 may only be able to carry low-yield nukes but is guided by an advanced Boeing tail kit.
CAN ANYONE WIN A NUCLEAR WAR?
To put the issue of power into perspective;
On August 6, 1945, the United States dropped an atomic bomb on the city of Hiroshima. The bomb was known as "Little Boy", a uranium gun-type bomb that exploded with about thirteen kilotons of force. At the time of the bombing, Hiroshima was home to 280,000-290,000 civilians as well as 43,000 soldiers. It is estimated that around 140,000 people were killed in the bombing.
In our extensive nuclear arsenal, the United States maintains 7,200 nuclear bombs. America also maintains a plethora of expensive delivery options for its nuclear bombs. Our so-called nuclear triad includes 94 nuclear-capable bombers (B-2s and B-52s), over 400 Minuteman III ICBMs, and 12 Ohio-class ballistic missile nuclear submarines. The submarines are equipped with modern Trident II submarine-launched ballistic missiles.
The key to the effectiveness of any weapon is its accuracy. It has been reported that in 1985, a single U.S. ICBM warhead had less than a 60 percent chance of destroying a typical silo. Today, a multiple-warhead attack on a single silo using a Trident II missile is said to have a roughly 99 percent chance of destroying it.”
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/R_2.jpg?itok=nlSjdykE
A BABY NUKE WITH GREAT ACCURACY
To be clear, the B61-12 is America’s first nuclear-guided bomb, it is a new weapon. According to Hans Kristensen, from the Federation of American Scientists, existing U.S. nuclear bombs have circular error probabilities (CEP) of between 110-170 meters. The B61-12’s CEP is just 30 meters. Also, with a maximum yield of 50 kilotons, the yield can be lowered as needed for any particular mission. An amazing fact is, the bomb’s explosive force can be reduced electronically through a dial-a-yield system.
The problem with this "friendly" nuclear bomb is that those controlling its use will most likely be more inclined to use it. This muddies the boundary and red line that mankind has up until now feared to cross. As noted earlier in this article, "once the nuclear genie is out of the bottle it will be hard to put back in."
Remember the 1983 movie WarGames? In it, a young computer whiz kid accidentally connects to a top-secret super-computer. The computer which has complete control over the U.S. nuclear arsenal innocently starts the countdown to World War 3. We may be moving back into such a scenario. This bodes poorly for us poor saps living in harm's way if shit hits the fan.
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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/military/will-americas-new-nuke-deter-war-or-bring-it
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis, D rest in limbo
IF RU-CH don’t destroy NATO asap .. they will do it: that is for sure!
XI & PUTIN TO DISCUSS "VERY AGGRESSIVE" US & NATO RHETORIC IN VIRTUAL SUMMIT
Kremlin: "The situation in international affairs, especially on the European continent, is very, very tense right now..."
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IS Europe submitted to FEAR and CONTROL by big owners of vaccine=PHARMA
NORWAY BANS BOOZE TO 'SLOW THE SPREAD' OF OMICRON
More absurdity...
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Fascism in Europe is trying to consolidate power
NATO CHIEF AMONG CANDIDATES FOR TOP NORWEGIAN CENTRAL BANK POSITION
Also in the running for the central bank position are a number of students and retirees, as well as a bus driver and a baker.
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A Cardinal denounce current FASCIM in process behind owners of vaccine: Big pharma
SENIOR CARDINAL WARNS ELITES USHERING IN "TOTAL CONTROL SURVEILLANCE STATE" THROUGH COVID
“People, who sit on the throne of their wealth,” are seizing an “opportunity to push through their agenda.
A senior German Cardinal has warned that the likes of Bill Gates, George Soros and Davos Economic Forum head Klaus Schwab are using the coronavirus pandemic to force the world under “total control” of globalist “super-rich elites.”
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Of course Taliban urge mercy & compassion? .. but why from diablo who steal & kill?
A "CHANGED" TALIBAN SAYS IT'S WELCOMING WOMEN'S RIGHTS, & NOW WANTS $10 BILLION FROM US
The hardline Islamists are urging the world's "mercy and compassion"..
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IF Taliban give power to US dollar, US will used to submit them. Perhaps adopting the new Yuan (In process: before Olympics next year), or perhaps creating a crypto currency under Taliban control could be a transitory solution. This issue has to be defined by smart economist totally independent from US. Remember that a quick WW3 is ad-portas (with total destruction of both sides with NO winners: just genocide & lethal pollution world-wide). After the quick WW3 (satellite controlled war) with NATO alliance totally destroyed) will come the deal for nuke dismantle at world level. Then we (those people who survive) will have the chance of creating & building a new history. Remember: WW3 is a suicide for most people on earth: the worse evil from current military business.
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SPUTNIK NEWS : https://sputniknews.com/
- What's Behind House 6 January Select Committee's 'Manhunt' for Meadows, Bannon, & Other Trump Aides
- India Clears $10Bln Plan to Attract Chip-makers From Taiwan As US-China Rivalry Intensifies
- Kentucky: Mayfield Residents in Dire Straits as Biden Set to Visit Tornado-Ravaged State
- UK Prime Minister Promises Buildup of NATO Forces in Bloc's Periphery 'if Russia Invades Ukraine'
- Boris Johnson Vows to 'Get on With Job' Amid Tory Rebellion Over COVID Rules
- Avian Flu Alert: 25,000 Birds to be Culled in Indian State of Kerala
- Trump Claims Mike Pence Was 'Mortally Wounded' by His Inaction on 6 January, Lacks Support From GOP
- Russian Envoy Slams German Court Ruling on Khangoshvili Murder Case as Politically-Motivated
- Two Russian Tu-95MS Bombers Conduct Patrol Over Sea of Japan
- Democrats 'Are Going to Win' 2022 Midterms, Biden Says as His Approval Ratings Plummet
- UK Aid Agencies to Launch Fundraising Appeal for Afghan Children
- Greece Receives Spain's Assurances to Deliver No Weapons to Turkey
- Lithuania Recalls Top Envoy to China for Consultations Amid Rift Over Taiwan
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