DIC 11 2021 P-B ND SIT ECON y POL Part 1 & P 2
ND denounce-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
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PFIZER JAB IS ONLY 23% EFFECTIVE AGAINST OMICRON, SOUTH AFRICAN STUDY FINDS
Pretty soon, Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla will have all the "data" he needs to justify another round of "mandatory" boosters.
Source: https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/pfizer-jab-only-23-against-omicron-south-african-study-finds
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COVID-19 A PANDEMIC OF FEAR "MANUFACTURED" BY AUTHORITIES: YALE EPIDEMIOLOGIST
“Overall, I’d say that we’ve had a pandemic of fear. And fear has affected almost everybody, whereas the infection has affected relatively few,”
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ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
Quick News:
REGULATION HAS MADE HOUSING UNAFFORDABLE. CAPITALISM CAN FIX THIS.
Regulation has made Housing Unaffordable. Capitalism Can Fix this.
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70 DEAD IN KENTUCKY AS BIDEN CALLS TORNADO OUTBREAK "ONE OF THE LARGEST IN HISTORY"
"It's a tragedy."
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If Goldman is right, and the Fed is about to hike 7 times in the next three years, it is about to commit the biggest policy blunder of all time.
At the start of the month, not long after Goldman capitulated and brought forward its first Fed rate hike forecast by one year to July 2022, virtually every Wall Street bank promptly followed in Goldman's footsteps turning uber hawkish and expecting several rate hikes and/or accelerating tapering over the coming year. All, expect Morgan Stanley, which stubbornly refused to yield to peer pressure and continued to forecast no rate hikes in 2022 whatsoever.
This remarkable divergence in Fed outlooks between the two most influential banks promoted us to tweet on Dec 1 that "2022 shaping up as a huge showdown between Goldman and Morgan Stanley. Former says 2, maybe 3 hikes; latter say no hikes. One will be spectacularly wrong."
Just a few days later, with inflation soaring to a fresh 39-year-high (although perhaps finally topping out), Morgan Stanley decided to gracefully and quietly tap out and this week the bank's -chief US economist Ellen Zentner, pulled forward the bank's rate hike path by 6 months to September 2022, acknowledging that it was wrong and admitting that there has been a "pivot in the Fed's reaction function."
Even so, Morgan Stanley still remains well beyond market expectations, saying it has "even greater conviction" in its call that core inflation moves off its highs in 1Q 2022, which however further validates concerns that the Fed is engaging in a policy error and tightening into a recession.
Here are some more details from Zentner's note:
Before investors close out the year, we need to get past the FOMC's final meeting next week, and it comes with every opportunity for surprise. On Wednesday, we expect the Fed to move to a hawkish stance by announcing that it is doubling the pace of taper, highlighting continued inflation risks and no longer labeling high inflation as transitory, and showing a hawkish shift in the dot plot. We think this shift will shake out in a 2-hike median in 2022, followed by 3.5 hikes in 2023 and 3 hikes in 2024.
At the end of the meeting, we think the FOMC's median view will align more closely with ours – we look for 2 hikes in 2022, followed by 3 hikes plus a halt in reinvestments in 2023. Moreover, we expect the Fed's median forecast for core PCE and the unemployment rate will also come in reasonably close to our own, which now has higher inflation receding to around 2.5% 4Q/4Q next year, and the unemployment rate back to its pre-pandemic low around 3.5% in 4Q22. The incoming data on the labor market and inflation has strayed materially from the Fed's outlook and therefore warrants what we deem to be a sea change in its stance on the appropriate path for policy.
At the same time, Zentener also says that the timing of liftoff in the bank's forecast is tied closely to inflation outcomes, with its base case expectation that following the current re-acceleration in inflation we have been expecting, core PCE shows some slowing beginning in February next year. The pace of this deceleration will be important in determining how much of a breather the Fed takes between the end of its asset purchases and the first rate hike.
See Chart:
EXHIBID 6: Market implied path for CPI cover the next 12 Months
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/market%20implied%20path.jpg?itok=ajTXbNvF
Separately, on Friday we received data on inflation for the month of November showing that on a year-over-year basis, core CPI increased to 4.9% from 4.6%. Headline CPI ran at the highest rate since 1982. Despite the alarming headlines, financial markets seemed to be relieved at the results. Why? Because, according to Morgan Stanley, for the first time in months the month-over-month increase of 0.5% was in line with expectations instead of delivering an upside surprise.
Going back to Morgan Stanley's mea culpa, Zentener writes that in her outlook, the biggest out-of-consensus call has been the view that core inflation will show signs of slowing in 1Q22 as pandemic-related price pressures, particularly in goods, are slowly abating. She says that today she has "even more conviction in that view" and here's why:
We are seeing nascent signs that pipeline inflation pressures are easing – based on evidence from company earnings transcripts, ISM comments, Korea trade data, China's inflation data, the Fed's Beige Book, a department huddle with our equity analysts, and our own survey.
But while Morgan Stanley is at least somewhat cautious about going hawkish, Goldman no longer has any such qualms, and moments ago on Saturday afternoon, the bank went all in on its hawkish relent... and so one month after pulling forward its call for a rate hike by over a year to July 2022, the bank now says that "the FOMC is very likely to double the pace of tapering to $30bn per month at its December meeting next week, putting it on track to announce the last two tapers at the January FOMC meeting and to implement the last taper in March." As a result, Goldman now expects the FOMC to deliver rate hikes next year in May, July, and November (vs. June, September, and December previously) and another 4 in 2023 and 2024 (spread evenly 2 and 2).
Chair Powell has indicated that the FOMC is likely to retire the word “transitory” from its statement and instead explain that it thinks the current period of elevated inflation is unlikely to “leave a permanent mark” by raising long-term inflation expectations. More meaningful changes to the statement, especially to language about inflation having run persistently below 2%, are also possible.
We expect the Summary of Economic Projections to show somewhat higher inflation and lower unemployment. Our best guess is that the dots will show 2 hikes in 2022, 3 in 2023, and 4 in 2024, for a total of 9 (vs. 0.5 / 3 / 3 and a total of 6.5 in September). We think the leadership will prefer to show only 2 hikes in 2022 for now to avoid making a more dramatic change in one step, especially at a meeting when the FOMC is already doubling the taper pace. But if Powell is comfortable showing 3 hikes next year, then we would expect others to join him in a decisive shift in the dots in that direction.
In conclusion, Goldman's forecast calls for 3 hikes in 2022 (vs 2 for Morgan Stanley) and then 2 per year starting in 2023. The bank also expects two hikes per year starting in 2023 because like MS, it also expects inflation to fall to moderately above 2% and growth to slow to just above potential by then.
That said, Goldman's Jan Hatzius says that he "inferred from the September dots that Powell and Governor Brainard envision hiking twice per year in that environment, a slower pace than last cycle that we assume reflects the new monetary policy framework." However, the bank will watch the December dots to see if they still view that as the default pace.
Or, one can just look at what the market is saying and the conclusion there is clear: with the 4Y1Y - 2Y1Y curve inverting... [ I call this Econ DEBACLE ]
See Chart:
... as STIR traders now expect rates in 2023 to be higher than in 2025, the verdict is simple: not only is the Fed engaging in policy error, hiking into an economic slowdown - with inflation having already peaked, someone has yet to explain to us how monetary policy will help alleviate supply chains, for example - but it will then proceed to rapidly cut rates (perhaps to negative) while injecting trillions more in QE once markets crash (amid the coming rate hike panic detailed meticulously by BofA CIO Michael Hartnett) to reflect the Fed's panicked actions (which an objective observer could say reek suspiciously of political pandering to appease Joe Biden who is clearly freaking out about his collapsing rating and the impact inflation is having on it) some time in late 2022, JUST BEFORE THE MIDTERMS.
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HERE'S HOW RESERVE CURRENCIES HAVE EVOLVED OVER 120 YEARS
...nothing lasts forever... [ See Chart ]
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption.
In crisis-time: Tighten the belt has to be done by both sides: Capital & Labor
KELLOGG PLANS TO PERMANENTLY REPLACE 1,400 STRIKING WORKERS
“We have made every effort to reach a fair agreement, including making six offers to the union, all which have included wage and benefits increases for every employee. It appears the union created unrealistic expectations for our employees,”
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YES, by both sides, otherwise both lost & this wrong ritual could break d whole
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RELATED ARTICLE: the worse part is suffered by Labor. Courts will favor them
INFLATION SURGES NEAR 40-YEAR HIGH, WAGES AREN'T KEEPING UP
The Fed may talk like it's concerned about consumer inflation, but it's shown it's much more committed to keeping asset prices high, and that precludes any significant effort at reining in inflation...
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Inflation is caused by the ruling class (Big Corp + QEs & Bail-outs) and One labor strike won’t affect them. National labor strike will, but this process requires time and active LABOR FRONTS. Meanwhile the family of the labor need to be feed. That is why I propose mutual negotiation (capital & labor). IF the owner of the factory don’t accept negotiation, take control of the factory as happen in US (first recession: 1929-1935). Then ARG took the example at the beginning of this Century. Taking factories will create base for LABOR FRONT & will initiate a process of REV at National Level. COURTs will favor ‘negotiation pro Labor’ and if they don’t do it THE NATION will demand their resignation. That happen also during the time of FDR (several factories were confiscated by d FED}.
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FALSE FLAG? :’It’s for the people’s own good’, could mean for Big Corp ruling d State
California's Controller claims her office “couldn’t locate” a single payment. No, that’s not fake news, or a comedy punch line. California’s top financial officer actually argued this in court recently, despite admitting she paid 50 million individual bills
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US SHALE SLAMS BIDEN'S OIL POLICIES
A group of Republican lawmakers have introduced a bill that would protect the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserves and shore up U.S. energy security
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PENNSYLVANIA SUPREME COURT ENDS SCHOOL MASK MANDATE
Department of Education hosts mask-free event
as state battles to keep masks on kids..
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Vax don’t prevent nor cure Covid 19. They reproduce virus & pharma business
NAVY DESTROYER #2 OFFICER FIRED OVER REFUSAL TO GET COVID-19 VAX OR TESTED
Seriously?
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NO serious reason for naïve officials to take it. IF they decide to give their life in war, they will do it with honor.. instead of wasting their life with vaxines
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Bats (owners of vaxx labs) and vaccine injections eat canaries in coalmines:
HAVE PROFESSIONAL ATHLETES BECOME THE CANARY-IN-THE-COVID-COALMINE?
The sudden spate of on-field emergencies has raised questions among several seasoned veterans of the game, Robert Bridge writes.
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis, D rest in limbo
As if the Covid hysteria being pushed by the media needed any more fodder for the flame...
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IRAN WARNS AGAINST REPORTED US-ISRAELI DRILLS PREPPING ATTACK ON NUKE SITES
US & Israeli officials have called it "mowing the grass"..
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One analyst said that Iran already have nuke-missiles donated by China and they start creating their own. Of course ISR have more than 100 missiles in their hands and they’re making deals with US to start WW3 in the middle East & take the oil from Iran and Syria. RU is now arming Iran-Syria rapidly.
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What IF China create a crypto currency based on gold for the Olympics?
XI'S GAMBIT: CHINA AT THE CROSSROADS
China's extraordinary growth has had four primary engines: Mercantilist exports, Property development, Infrastructure projects, and Debt...The problem is all four are running into diminishing returns that are veering into malinvestment.
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Most of the world trade is still in USD, German currency is behind and the UK comes next. With the crypto money based on GOLD (the ‘new yuan’) CHINA will start taking out the US dollar from the global market.
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SPUTNIK NEWS : https://sputniknews.com/
- House COVID Panel Issues Warning After Ex-Trump Aide Navarro Refuses to Comply With Subpoena
- Two Dead After Ukrainian Drone Drops Explosives in Donetsk Repub-People’s Milicia
- Tucker Carlson Reveals Son Was Inside Capitol Building During January 6th Attack
- Tornado Kills at Least Six Amazon Employees in Illinois
- US Never Intended to Send Combat Troops to Ukraine, Biden Says
- Julian Assange Suffered Stroke During October Court Appearance, Fiancee Reveal
- US May Block Another French Naval Deal After Approving $9.4 Bln Sale to Greece
- Israel Consulted US Prior to Covert Strikes on Iranian Nuclear Site
- Biden: Outbreak of Deadly Tornadoes 'Likely Largest' in US History as Death Toll Exceeds 70
- Why Joe Biden's 'Summit for Democracy' Is Facing Criticism From All Directions
- Israel Preparing Military Option to Prevent Iran's Nuclear Bomb Acquisition
- Moscow Calls US Hypocrisy Amid Reports CIA is Planning Pivot to Focus on Russia, China
- Warring Libyan Armed Forces Agree to Unite Army
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DIC 11 2021 PART 2 ND SIT EC y POL SPANISH ++
J Assange: UK falló a favor de US de extraditar a J Assange Isabella A
Perú LANZAN INICIATIVA CIUDADANA POR NUEVA CONSTITUCIÓN
ALC: La inconsecuente política ambiental de Costa Rica JF Campos
ALC: “Globalización y lucha por la tierra en América Latina” M T
Cultur: Kropotkin: legado de filósofo y científico revoluc E Llopis
Detroit (2017): ¿Juicio al racismo? No, lavado de manos LC Muñoz
C Katz: La ilusión: el FMI nos permitirá seguir creciendo, una fantasía
Econ: Nueva variante de covid trastoca la salud y el comercio G C
Fem en España: BEATRÍZ Natalia Salvo
Chile: Segunda vuelta: Cunde el pánico en la granja Rafael Agacino
Opin: EN DEFENSA DE LA FILOSOFÍA Hayled Martín
Opin: férrea decision de la gente común: construir un mundo nuevo
España: DENUNCIAR VIOLENCIA Y RACISMO INSTITUC TIENE PRECIO
MX: DOS CANDIDATOS Y UNA PARÁBOLA Miguel Ángel Ferrer
MX: AGONIZA LA DERECHA MEXICANA José García
Elección clara: Reconstruir mejor o construir más bombas? AG DM
VEN: La ONU reconoce al Gobierno constituc de Maduro Á Verzi R
Europa: ZEMMOUR, LE PEN Y EL ANTIFASCISMO Ugo Palheta
África: NÍGER, LA GUERRA ES CONTRA LOS CIVILES Guadi Calvo
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RT EN ESPAÑOL
Biden amenaza con enviar más tropas US a Europa del Este pro OTAN https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/413362-biden-amenaza-enviar-tropas-este-europa
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Biden: "Es probable que este sea el mayor brote de tornados de nuestra historia" https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/413367-biden-tornados-eeuu
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China califica la democracia US como "arma de destrucción masiva" https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/413365-pekin-califica-democracia-eeuu-arma
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Hay evidencias de que el 'fracking' puede crear un tipo de sismo completam nuevo https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/413320-eeuu-evidencias-fracking-desencadenar-terrenotos-grandes
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Reportan que Israel se prepara para un ataque militar contra Irán https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/413379-israel-preparativos-ataque-iran
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Julian Assange tuvo un derrame cerebral a finales de octubre https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/413369-assange-derrame-cerebral-octubre
US lo quiere aquí para demostrar que el US es fascista y hay que tenerle miedo. Pero ocurrirá lo inverso: el pueblo saldrá a las calles por su libert y deslegitimará a Biden mientras los médicos socialistas demandaran su custodia. Por la libertad de prensa: VENCEREMOS!
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Despiden a una camarera tras recibir una propina de más de 2.000 dólares https://actualidad.rt.com/viral/413328-despiden-camarera-recibir-propina-grande
Querían su dinero, pero ella prefirió su libertad y se fue
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CROSS TALK https://www.rt.com/shows/crosstalk/
On this episode of Going Underground, we speak to Richard Sakwa, professor of Russian and European politics at the University of Kent. He discusses the summit between Putin and Biden over the Ukraine crisis, the unresolved issues at the end of ‘Cold War 1’ that led to ‘Cold War 2’ between the US and Russia, NATO expansion towards Russia’s borders contrary to promises made prior to the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the threat of nuclear war, the lack of implementation of the Minsk Agreement, and much more
SOURCE: https://www.rt.com/shows/going-underground/542827-ukraine-crisis-cold-war2/
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO allies
- Scientists Want to Stamp Children with Invisible Ink to Prove They’ve Been Vaccinated By Ethan Huff,
- “Largest Health Care Fraud Settlement in Its History” (2009). US Department of Justice By US Department of Justice,
- What Are the Truly Verifiable Facts Surrounding COVID-19? By David Skripac
- Vaccinated People Are Up to Nine Times (9X) More Likely to be Hospitalized than Unvaccinated People By Steve Kirsch
- Inside the Military’s Secret Undercover Army By William M Arkin
- Sincere Devotion to the Vaccine. Encounters with a COVID Believer By Michael Welch and Dr. Tara Moriarty,
- US Wins Appeal over Extradition of WikiLeaks Founder Assange By Al-Jazeera
- Reuters Chairman Is Top Investor and Board Member of Pfizer By Emily Mangiaracina,
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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’ team
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