Nueva Democracia: DIC 19 2021 P-B ND SIT ECON y POL Part 1 + 2

YES, Humans are social beings made of ‘work’ and spirituality. Work is the 1^st component of life, the objective or material part of life. It is the work & production of economics (money included) plus the building of political relation with other humans that make social BEINGS. The 2^nd component of life is spirituality: the way of thinking & feeling (including love to their country or patriotism) . These 2 components are interconnected and work hand on hand. Their thinking and the products of thinking are not totally determined by consciousness. It is in reverse, consciousness is determined by objective work (in economic terms) of man during life. Both components, the objective one (work) & spirituality (way of thinking), are the two main components of social beings, all social sciences said so. Lockdown break social beings. It creates animals, one against the other, especially in time of crisis & war.

====

STOCKS, BOND YIELDS TUMBLE AFTER MANCHIN "NO" ON BUILD BACK BETTER, GOLDMAN SLASHES GDP

by Tyler Durden

Goldman has removed the assumption that BBB will become law from its forecast

A decisive "no" from Senator Joe Manchin on President Biden's Build Back Better (BBB) social engineering spendfest has sparked anger from The White House and economic outlook cuts from Wall Street.

While BBB enactment had already looked like a close call, in light of Manchin's comments Goldman has removed the assumption that BBB will become law from its forecast.

In light of their changed fiscal assumptions, Goldman lowers their real GDP forecast for 2022: 2% in Q1 (vs. 3% prior), 3% in Q2 (vs. 3.5% prior), and 2.75% in Q3 (vs. 3% prior).

The main points from Goldman's report are as follows:

1. Senator Joe Manchin (D-W. Va.) released a statement this morning indicating that he would not support President Biden’s Build Back Better (BBB) legislation, saying that his “concerns have only increased as the pandemic surges on, inflation rises and geopolitical uncertainty increases around the world”. His statement also cites electric grid reliability and the increased reliance on foreign supply chains as concerns, in reference to the bill’s energy and climate provisions. In apparent reference to the bill’s social benefits, he says “my Democratic colleagues in Washington are determined to dramatically reshape our society in a way that leaves our country even more vulnerable to the threats we face.” He also makes multiple references to concerns about the public debt and potential fiscal implications of the legislation.

2. BBB no longer looks like the base case. We recently put the probability of a modified version of the BBB legislation passing at slightly better than even but, in light of Manchin’s comments, the odds have clearly declined and we will remove the assumption from our forecast. With headline CPI reaching as high as 7% in the next few months in our forecast before it begins to fall, the inflation concerns that Sen. Manchin and others have already expressed are likely to persist, making passage more difficult. The omicron variant is also likely to shift political attention back to virus-related issues and away from long-term reforms. There is still a possibility that Congress passes a few smaller short-term fiscal provisions aimed at virus-related issues, and it also still looks likely that Congress will pass a version of the Senate’s competitiveness legislation, which included around $250bn in economic incentives related to research, manufacturing, semiconductors and supply chains.

3. The most important question for the near-term outlook is the fate of the expanded child tax credit. Sen. Manchin has already proposed adding work requirements on the credit, which could be done by making it only partly refundable, as it had been until 2021. In theory, congressional Democrats could finance a permanent extension of a partly- or non-refundable child tax credit at the current higher level ($3000/$3600 per child, depending on age) with the revenue from the tax increases in the House-passed BBB; Manchin has not objected to those tax increases. However, it would likely take several weeks to negotiate a new compromise, and with the expanded child tax credit expiring Dec. 31, the urgency to extend it is likely to fade while any negotiations take place. It is also unclear whether progressive Democrats would accept legislation that drops most of their other priorities. While we still think there is some chance that Congress extends the expanded child tax credit retroactively in some form, the odds of this happening seem to be less than even at this point.

4. A failure to pass BBB has negative growth implications. We had already expected a negative fiscal impulse for 2022 as a result of the fading support from COVID-relief legislation enacted in 2020 and 2021, and without BBB enactment, this fiscal impulse will become somewhat more negative than we had expected. Specifically, the expiration of the child tax credit and the lack of the other new spending we had been expecting will reduce the fiscal impulse to growth by around 1pp in Q1, 0.5pp in Q2 and 0.25pp in Q3. With this change, our GDP forecast for 2022 now stands at 2% in Q1 (vs. 3% prior), 3% in Q2 (vs. 3.5% prior) and 2.75% in Q3 (vs. 3% prior).

See Chart:

Failing to pass a reconciliation Bill will result in notable drags in 2022-2023

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2021-12-19_18-27-20.jpg?itok=lQHITCFh

And 30Y Yields lower (also lower for the month).

See Chart:

UST 30 Y Yield

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2021-12-19_18-13-42.jpg?itok=P5ls1w1e

The White House is furious.

White House press secretary Jen Psaki said in a statement on Sunday that Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) went back on his word when he announced Sunday that he will not support President Joe Biden’s mammoth “Build Back Better” spending package, likely imperiling the measure.

“Senator Manchin’s comments this morning on FOX are at odds with his discussions this week with the President, with White House staff, and with his own public utterances."

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), a self-described democratic socialist, alleged Manchin “does not have the guts to stand up to powerful special interests” by voting for the bill. Sanders did not elaborate on who those “powerful special interests” may be.

The White House will continue to apply pressure on Manchin to see whether he will reverse his position, Psaki said.

….

SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bond-yields-tumble-after-manchin-no-build-back-better-goldman-slashes-gdp

----

MORGAN STANLEY: HERE COMES THE CHINA UPSWING

From Chetan Ahya, chief Asia economist at Morgan Stanley

China's easing measures will complement the sustained strength in exports and a pick-up in private capex, driving the recovery

The China Upswing

Over the years, China has experienced a number of mini-cycles. This year brought another iteration – the economy started the year on a strong footing but has entered a policy-induced downturn. The policy cycle has shifted from overtightening to easing, and our chief China economist Robin Xing estimates that GDP growth will accelerate to 5.5%Y in 2022. Investors we speak with are less confident in the recovery, but we think that this mini-cycle repeats a familiar pattern and policy-makers have already taken steps to reverse the downturn.

Moreover, the recent statement after the Central Economic Working Conference confirms their resolve and increases our confidence on the recovery call.

In the current cycle, with the sharp pick-up in external demand, policy-makers stuck to their playbook and tightened macro policies to slow infrastructure and property spending. But policy tightening was unusually aggressive this time, with debt/GDP reduced by 10 percentage points in 2021. The property sector has seen the most prominent tightening

This past week, top policy-makers convened at the Central Economic Working Conference (CEWC), an annual meeting that sets the agenda for the economy in the year ahead. Their statement acknowledged that "China's economic development is facing three pressures: demand contraction, supply shock and weakening expectations", suggesting to us that they will continue to take action to stem the downturn:

Policy-makers are prioritizing infrastructure investment in areas like pollution alleviation, carbon emission reduction, new energy sources, new technologies and new industrial clusters.
Regarding the property sector, the statement mentioned efforts to "support the commodity housing market to better satisfy homebuyers' reasonable housing demand". They will "enhance guidance on housing market expectations" and "promote a virtuous cycle" for the first time in the past decade. The January 2022 reset of mortgage loan quotas will help to lift home purchases.
As for decarbonization, a similar reset of the targets in the new year will alleviate near-term headwinds. Policy-makers have now indicated that they will first invest in alternative energy before curtailing fossil fuel-based energy sources.

These easing measures will complement the sustained strength in exports and a pick-up in private capex, driving the recovery.

See Chart:

Policy easy now underway: credit impulse to rise

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/china%20credit.png?itok=Xkw2mJpc

The character of regulatory tightening is also changing at the margin. Policymakers are taking a more structured and institutionalized approach, and changes from here on will likely be more incremental. More broadly, the CEWC statement also made it clear that while policy-makers want to divide the economic pie more equally, the pie still needs to grow, which in our view will alleviate concerns about further actions that could weigh on private corporate sentiment.

In terms of market implications, our China equity strategy team continues to prefer A-shares rather than offshore markets. Our China property and Asia credit strategy analysts are bullish on the China property sector as well as China HY property.

The key risk to our call in the near term is the Omicron variant. The effectiveness of containment and tracing capabilities has improved over time such that each successive wave of Covid outbreaks has had a smaller impact on mobility and hence growth. However, Omicron’s greater transmissibility suggests to us that it will keep China’s Covid-zero policy in place for longer and could force China to impose more selective, surgical shutdowns than during the Delta wave.

….

SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-here-comes-china-upswing

----

RICKARDS: THE GREAT SUPPLY CHAIN COLLAPSE

The bottom line is if supply chains are breaking down, the economy is breaking down. If the economy breaks down, the breakdown of social order is not far behind...

====

ONE CHART TRADERS MIGHT WANT TO PONDER

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

But when the Fed's fundamental powerlessness is revealed and the buy-the-dippers have been forced to liquidate, the true meaning of "mild" contagion will become apparent.

Note that the chart explicitly states that the data is a simplified, hypothetical scenario that isn't based on any specific viral variant. It is a generalized depiction of the consequences of big numbers: a virus that is terrifically contagious but not terribly lethal (i.e. "mild") still ends up killing far more people than the more severe but less contagious variants because the number of infected people becomes consequentially large very quickly.

But when the Fed's fundamental powerlessness is revealed and the buy-the-dippers have been forced to liquidate, the true meaning of "mild" contagion will become apparent, too late for those who thought being fully invested was a can't-lose strategy.

See Chart:

A variant that transmits faster, even if milder, could lead to many more deaths

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/contagion-deaths12-21a.jpg?itok=gH93GHqC

….

Read the full article at:

SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/one-chart-traders-might-want-ponder

----

US DOMESTIC POLITICS

Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption.

Only animals in time of crisis (pandemics included) reject PEACE as main way of life

WHY THE US WILL REJECT RUSSIA'S PROPOSED PEACE-SETTLEMENT

U.S.-and-allied arms-manufacturers and the billionaires that ride 'em will no doubt be terrified that their decades-long gravy trains are finally being seriously challenged...

….

WHY?.. because we are ruled by animals: those who believe that wars is the only way to expand our system. The FACT is that world-wars are today are obsolete: Nuclear war will create total destruction in both sides. There won’t be winners, only genocide in both sides plus total destruction of environment at world level & new pandemics. It is time for nuclear dismantle world wide. IF WW3 explode the military in both sides will be declared obsolete and dissolved. The world will not need those animals any longer. It is time to create a STRONG SOCIAL MOVEMENT IN FAVOR OF PEACE

====

Democracy never existed in US since billionaires’ finance or buy elections= fraud

WHY IS THE LEFT SUDDENLY WORRIED ABOUT THE END OF DEMOCRACY?

...leftist elites are terrified that democracy will work too robustly...

….

The end of OLD democracy will start when billionaires are prohibited of ‘investing’ in Elections

====

Contradictions inside ruling classes is a big sign of debacle of US polit-Ec system

AMAZON BOWED TO BEIJING'S PROPAGANDA ARM TO KEEP CHINESE SALES SECURED, NEW REPORT REVEALS

Similar to what we noted about Apple and its "pay to play" arrangement ... it looks as though Amazon is also in the midst of trading integrity for profit when it comes to Beijing.

----

Pero no son esas contradicciones internas las que definirán la caída del poder imperial. Son los FRENTES POPULARES en cada Estado los que instalaran 1ro la autonomía económico y política y luego el separatismo Estatal frente al FED. Hay Estados donde el crypto currency tiene ya mas poder de compra-venta que el US dollar. Estos avanzaran más rápido al separatismo si ocurre el WW3. Esta es una de las opciones del poder popular para su emancipación. Hay otras…

====

TINA, BOGO & FOMO'S ENGINES ARE STUTTERING

While reaction to Omicron will drive the direction at the start of the week... quality will overwhelm FOMO in the coming weeks..

====

NAVARRO: BIDEN, DEMOCRATS, & CHINA ARE TO BLAME FOR AMERICA'S STAGFLATION MESS

America’s working classes and small businesses are under attack from a virulent epidemic of inflation..

====

Omicron is story invented by profiteers of vaccines. It did not kill people as corona virus

AMERICANS BRACE FOR HOLIDAY "TIDAL WAVE" AS OMICRON SPEEDS INFECTIONS

Some experts now expect the pandemic to last until 2024..

….

It is time to take control of our health & immune system, time to expropriate the LABS from the terrorist big Pharma and transfer them to States & Nations

====

US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)

Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis, D rest in limbo

RUSSIA PUBLISHES DETAILS OF SECURITY PROPOSALS SENT TO US & NATO

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com

====

Gaddafi father was brutally assassinated & Lybian gold stolen by Obama’ Regime

RISE OF GADDAFI'S SON THROWS LIBYAN ELECTIONS INTO CHAOS, ALARMS WEST

Return of Gaddafi regime? NATO & UN ?

alarmed over his popularity among Libyans...

====

US-China chaos has its HEROES: mere delinquents

FORMER HARVARD CHEMISTRY CHAIR ADMITS TO TAKING TENS OF THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS FROM CHINA

“I can’t even believe I did this,... It’s my mistake and obviously I made a mistake.”

====

ESCOBAR: PUTIN, XI RUNNING CIRCLES AROUND BIDEN'S HYBRID WAR

Russia and China's announcement of an independent financial trading platform will free nations under US sanctions from western intrusion into their commercial activities...

====

SPUTNIK NEWS : https://sputniknews.com/

- Dutch Prosecutors Insists MH17 Was Downed by Buk Missile From Donbass

- Chinese Foreign Minister: Beijing Would Not Fear Confrontation With US

- Kremlin: Deployment of Weapons Near Russia to Require Measures to Balance Situation

- Iran Conducts Air Defence Drills Above Bushehr Nuclear Facility

- Russian Scientists Come Up With New Way to Improve 5G

- US Hospitals Overwhelmed and Not Ready for Influx of Omicron Patients

- NATO Should Stop Escalation to Prevent Possible Military Response From Russia

- Israel Bans Travel to US Amid Omicron Strain Concerns

- Moscow Needs Urgent Response From US on Security Guarantee Proposals

- Blast From the Past: Live Torpedo From Historic WWII Battle Found in Norway