DIC 18 2021 P-B ND SIT ECON y POL Part 1 & 2
ND denounce-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
Quick News:
WE'VE REACHED PEAK INFLATION- DANIELA CAMBONE AND JIM RICKARDS
You could also see severe, "tightening into weakness," with a potential of three rate hikes next year,
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TIMING THE CRASH: WHY "BUY THE 1ST RATE HIKE, SELL THE PENULTIMATE HIKE" WON'T WORK THIS TIME
by Tyler Durden
"Remain defensive and bearish until a) positioning shows full-blown capitulation and/or b) credit events/losses on Wall St force central banks to announce reversal of tightening."
Speaking on CNBC, the FOMC's most clueless member - NY Fed president John Williams who runs the world's most important trading desk yet has zero trading experience and every market crisis shows it - said that the Fed is “very focused” on taming “too high” inflation and will be able to do so without causing a recession.
That, of course, is a lie: as we last week, virtually every single rate hike cycle since before the Great Depression ended in disaster (and/or recession)
See Chart:
How FED tightening cycles end
... and this time won't be any different, just like the brief bear market at the end of 2018 which ended the Fed's last rate hike cycle, wasn't any different.
See Chart:
S&P 500 Draw Downs
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/drawdowns%20BI%20dec%2017_0.jpg?itok=Mn5vEfdC
Guaranteeing that there will be a very sad ending (at least until the next QE/NIRP/ETF purchases at which point everything will go vertical) is that in keeping with the long-running theme from BofA CIO Michael Hartnett that we are about to get the double whammy of "Inflation Shock…Rates Shock", Hartnett writes in his latest Flow Show "here come the central banks…Fed to end QE in March & hike thrice in '22, BoE hiked 15bps despite Omicron surge, Norges hiked 25bps, ECB tapering & hinting rate hike in '22; in contrast in EM…swaps market hinting China could cut 50bps next Monday & Turkey aggressively easing (Turkish stocks up 54% in local-FX terms & down 27% in US$-terms YTD)."
However, while everyone knows how it all ends - in both nominal and real terms - the question is when.
And here we get some useful insight from Hartnett who reminds us of the "wonderful old market adage" to "buy the 1st hike, sell the penultimate rate hike" because "first rates hikes are “good” hikes on back of strong growth and mid-cycle bull market."
But this time, the BofA strategist says that this market-timing adage is "wrong" as inflation is already out of control and even with speedier end to QE, and central banks are only slightly less out of control.
As a result, Hartnett writes that tighter financial conditions remain his key investment forecast into '22, and his favorite trades are as follows:
- Tighter financial conditions = long US$, long MOVE/VIX, short credit, short PE/XBD.
- EPS deceleration/flatter yield curve/high CPI = long quality, defensives, yield & shortextended cyclical (SOX/XHB), long commodities to hedge inflation
- Contrarian = short Nasdaq ("hubris"), long EM/China ("humiliation").
Which brings us back to the point up top, namely that inflation always precede Recessions: whether driven by asset, housing, commodity, consumer or labor, inflation is like a very high body temperature, and must be reduced via tightening or recession to return the body to normal and ensure future good health.
And while global growth is good right now (despite Omicron risks) with just 6% of investors forecasting recession in '22 (a recent FMS finding we mocked last week), the risk that the coming “rates shock” quickly morphs a into “recession scare” is high.
Finally, according to Hartnett, UK mid-cap stocks and yield curve are the best leading indicator of “policy error” - case in point, in 2017/18 BoE's 1st rate hike was the penultimate rate hike, and markets were sold.
See Chart
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/uk%20mid%20cap%20stocks.PNG?itok=Q71JvKRv
How to best position for the coming pain? As BofA puts it, "Defence until Capitulation and/or new Declaration of Indulgence", or in other words, remain defensive and bearish until a) positioning shows full-blown capitulation and/or b) credit events/losses on Wall St force central banks to announce reversal of tightening.
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption.
Inventing new variants of pandemics don’t require science, only control World-media
MEET THE SCIENTISTS HUNTING FOR THE NEXT VARIANT OF CONCERN
“I worked through the night."
America has some of the most advanced medical research capabilities in the world. So why is it that a small group of labs in South Africa seems to be a step ahead of everybody else when it comes to sniffing out new variants?
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Dems & Reps are rotten pork from the same pigsty
SHELLENBERGER: WHY DEMOCRATS SELF-DESTRUCT ON CRIME
Progressives still deny rising crime even as it undermines Joe Biden's presidency
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It is time to abandon such political garbage. Vote progressive people!
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The debacle of capitalism & its obsolete neoliberalism is the dystopia we’re in
EXACTLY WHICH DYSTOPIAN NOVEL ARE WE LIVING IN?
Turns out we’re not in a single dystopian novel.
We’re in the two above simultaneously:
Capitalism with explosive inequality and
Liberalism for big Corp who profit from it
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The ghost LGNTQ is not a ghost, it is a REAL expression of freedom we must accept
PARENTS ERUPT AT CALIFORNIA SCHOOL BOARD MEETING OVER ALLEGED 'COACHING' OF STUDENTS INTO LGBTQ CLUB
"How could you even allow this? How could you even have this meeting to question it? How dare you let these teachers come in and act as if they have done nothing wrong?"
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Join the CLUB of REALITY and WELCOME all of them. Long life to LGNTQ!
Don’t pay attention to old time mind. Check if our grandparents belong to 1 variant in the past & IF SO: give a nice hug to them.
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Delusional are d conservative with empty tolerance & irrational mind. AOC is d opposite
A DELUSIONAL AOC PROVIDES THE TWEET IRONY OF THE DAY
No princess, what's happening is the public is sick of your progressive cohort for hijacking the Democratic Party to the extreme Left...
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We need more than hundred AOC in our time to take out intolerance US sickens
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We need good police, no those shooting people in streets when demonstrate for Hum-R
THE 16 US CITIES THAT HIT ALL-TIME HOMICIDE RECORDS THIS YEAR
City leaders across the nation urge for more funding for police.
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Don’t use United Flights. It is not the first time they commit this type of abuses
MAN THROWN OFF UNITED FLIGHT AFTER USING RED THONG AS A MASK
“I think the best way to illustrate absurdity is with absurdity.”
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Un loco americano con una loca (fly-foster) don’t match
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State esocialis, D rest in limbo
ESCOBAR: PUTIN, XI RUNNING CIRCLES AROUND BIDEN'S HYBRID WAR
Russia and China's announcement of an independent financial trading platform will free nations under US sanctions from western intrusion into their commercial activities..
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China will not attack US but they will respond with RU to US attack, will be devastating
US BUILDS SOFTWARE TO PREDICT CHINA'S RESPONSE TO MILITARY ACTION
The tool will seek to calculate "strategic friction"...
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SPUTNIK NEWS : https://sputniknews.com/
- London 'Highly Unlikely' to Deploy Troops in Ukraine, UK Defence Secretary Says
- Empty Streets and Closed Shops: Bethlehem's Tourism is Struggling to Survive The Pandemic
- Suspect in Arson in Osaka Keeps People From Leaving Clinic Standing at Exit
- Germany Announces Quarantine for UK Travelers to Curb Omicron Variant Spread
- UK Scientists Warn of Daily COVID Surge to Two Million Unless New Curbs Introduced Before New Year
- Civilian Deaths From US Strikes in Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan Downplayed by Pentagon
- CNN Closes Offices to Nonessential Employees as COVID-19 Gains Strength
- Trump Says CNN Wants Jeff Zucker Out ‘Because His Ratings Have Gone to All-Time Low’
- Moscow-Ankara Ties Unaffected by Murder of Russian Ambassador Karlov
- ‘Very Safe Because We Work With Cartels’: Alleged Border Smuggler Reveals Business Profits
- Texas Gov. Abbott Presents State-Funded Border Wall, Slams Biden for Not 'Doing His Job'
- Russia Testing New Radar Drone for Reconnaissance of Ground Targets
- North Carolina Rep. Claims Opioid Crisis 'Affects Every Community' in US
- North Carolina Rep. Claims Opioid Crisis 'Affects Every Community' in US
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DIC 18 2021 PART 2 ND SIT EC y POL SPANISH ++
REBELION
Econ: La pandemia es funcional a la ofensiva del capital J C. G
Espania: La estufa eléctrica: un lujo inalcanz con pensiones tan bajas
BOL: Millonaria corrupc tiene en vilo a la oposición neoliberal DA
Perú Las tribulaciones de Castillo en palacio José Justo Calderón
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RT EN ESPAÑOL
Dos misiles impactan contra la 'zona verde' de Bagdad, donde se ubica la Embaj de US https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/414172-cohetes-impactan-zona-verde-bagdad
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Varios países africanos destruyen cientos de miles de vacunas anticovid: ¿por qué lo hacen https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/413933-paises-desarrollo-destruir-vacunas
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Pentá "subestimado demasiado " el número de muertos civiles causados en Medio-OR https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/414170-nyt-pentagono-subestimar-profundamente-muertos-civiles-ataques
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Asesinan a otro líder social en Colombia y el número total de víctimas asciende a 165 https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/414165-asesinan-lider-social-colombia-victimas-165
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Fuerza Aérea de US provoca "explosión sónica" con un aviones y se disculpa con resid- locales https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/414177-fuerza-aerea-eeuu-provocar-explosion-sonica-aviones
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO allies
- Bombshell Document Dump on Pfizer Vaccine Data By Global Research
- The Imposition of Compulsory Vaccination with a Biometric Health Passport? By PS
- Will the Fed Crash Global Financial Markets As a Means to Implemtr “Great Reset”? By F. William Engdahl,
- The Final Solution. Full Digitization. “The QR Codification of the World” By Peter Koenig
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VOLTAIRE NET ORG https://www.voltairenet.org/en
JOE BIDEN’S FOREIGN POLICY RECORD
According to White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki, the top three foreign policy achievements of the Biden administration in 2021 are:
1. “Reclaiming our
leadership role in international institutions and convening world leaders to
make real progress on the biggest challenges of our time–serving as the world’s
vaccine arsenal, driving the global economic recovery, and restoring U.S.
leadership on climate.”
2. "Restoring our alliances, including with Europe," in
particular by settling trade disputes.
3. “In the Indo-Pacific, we have developed new platforms like AUKUS
(Australia/UK/USA) and elevated the Quad (Australia/India/Japan/USA)."
SOURCE: https://www.voltairenet.org/article215140.html
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