Nueva Democracia: DIC 23 2021 P-B ND SIT ECON y POL Part 1- 2

DIC 23 2021 P-B ND SIT ECON y POL Part 1- 2

ND denounce-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco

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FDA RELEASES MORE DATA ON "ADVERSE REACTIONS" TO PFIZER VACCINE

More than 1,000 deaths have been recorded in the US alone...

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ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS

Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

Quick News:

AFTER CHRISTMAS, GET READY FOR THE 'INFLATION BULLWHIP'

BY American Consequences

The "bullwhip effect" is what happens when demand distortion misinforms the supply chain... and it's about to hit in full force.

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Nos vamos a la’merda’.. pero con ‘good dreams’ about the future, as usual

THE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED IN 2021, AND WHAT WE ARE SEEING IS A DYSTOPIAN 2022

by Tyler Durden: Via Birch Gold Group,

"The basic issue is that right now everything is dumb..."

This year was a doozy. Right out of the gate, millionaires were sounding the alarm that the markets were looking overvalued while reducing their risk exposure.

In February we got a taste of what could be the “end game” for the U.S. dollar as we saw it lose more of its grip as global reserve currency. Of course, it won’t collapse overnight because market psychology is still propping it up (for now).

So without further ado, let’s dive into the first one…

The confused Fed

Investors became speculators and lost millions on meme stocks, and then spent millions more on cartoons of monkeys.

2021 has been one of the most challenging periods in recent economic history to report on. Because just when you think things can’t get any more insane, events prove you wrong.

Bloomberg’s Matt Levine put it best:

The basic issue is that right now everything is dumb…

The Fed has spared no effort to create an illusion of prosperity. The only problem (other than rampant inflation) is that it simply can’t last forever.

We believe the Federal Reserve will be forced to choose between a hard market crash or runaway inflation. They’re trying to thread the needle

But based on Powell’s prior track record, we’ll have to wait and see how he actually decides to handle “Inflation Nation.”

Not even Powell believes surging inflation is “transitory” anymore

Since the start of Biden’s term in January 2021, consumer price inflation (CPI) has been steadily increasing each month.

You can see the official monthly tally on the bar graph below

See Chart:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/embed_7.png?itok=infBHvz1

This “tax that no one voted for” is still increasing as you read this. One example we gave back in June about the permanent damage done to people’s wealth:

Of course, the wealthy elite like Powell and his buddies don’t have to worry about the impact on Arthur’s income when they intentionally “let inflation run hot” because it’s “good for the economy.” (Just not for you.)

Back in September (when inflation was 5.3%) we said the “inflation train” wasn’t traveling at full speed yet… Here we are in December, and it still doesn’t show any signs of slowing down.

“Inflation Nation” heading into 2022: You can see how inflation is still pulling even more money out of Americans’ pockets in the graphic below…

See Chart:

How is inflation affecting you?

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/inflation-nov-2020-2021.jpg?itok=QyyiD80S

This will not get better anytime soon.

In 2022, inflation could turn into a nightmare. You might expect everyone who doesn’t have a net worth in the millions to start pinching pennies. You might expect the U.S. Mint to stop even making pennies.

Stock market mania erupted in 2021

People with nothing to do spent their stimulus money on risky stocks. Hyper-speculative investing led to memes like Wall Street Bets, which propped up failing stocks like GameStop and AMC theaters.

On top of that, margin debt exploded to historic levels that will be tough to surpass (see chart below):

See Chart:

Margin Debt, long term and annotated

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/US-margin-debt-2021-17-18.png?itok=AbwDuYvw

Wolf Richter even called the stock market a “zoo that has gone nuts.”

Mania heading into 2022: You might think that knowing the market was severely overvalued and poised for a major correction would deter manic investing behavior.

But if you thought that, you’d have been wrong, because in addition to the examples above, according to Forbes, meme stocks like AMC and GameStop might continue to get artificially inflated well into 2022:

Make sure your savings are ready for anything

After reviewing what transpired this year, it’s a good idea to ponder what happened and consider what might be coming up next.

But considering that neither the U.S. Government nor the Federal Reserve could keep the dollar and economy under control, one good question to ponder would be:

What will either the government or the Fed do differently in 2022?

Of course this assumes they don’t keep trying to do the same thing and expect a different result. While they figure that out, it’s never the wrong time to reflect on Benjamin Graham’s words:

In the short-run, the market is a voting machine – reflecting a voter-registration test that requires only money, not intelligence or emotional stability – but in the long-run, the market is a weighing machine.

It’s a good idea to take steps to ensure your portfolio stays as stable as possible. Take a few minutes to do your own “year-end review.” Are you “voting” or are you “weighing” with your savings? Are you taking appropriate levels of risk? Are you well-enough diversified to stay on track, regardless of what market insanity comes next?

If you’re concerned about protecting your savings from inflation and market meltdowns, consider physical precious metals. Gold and silver both have a reliable track record of holding their value relative to inflation, and may be the safe haven you need to face the year ahead…

We’ll have some things to say about that?,

[ YES: keep our dreams BUT.. ] don’t forget to check back next week for our 2022 economic forecasts.

SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/clouds-have-cleared-2021-and-what-we-are-seeing-dystopian-2022

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Bitcoin is killing our USD, but this dystopic dream will ‘save you’, not the Nation

BITCOIN: THIS WILL MAKE YOU A BELIEVER

BTC is profoundly positive for society...

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Forget Jesus resurrection. New believers must believe in Bitcoin to save inferno You don’t save God but save current inferno and faster if you believe in WW3. That is what dystopian believers recommend: only bitoins salvara US’ infierno.

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We don’t believe in PEACE, we believe in WAR: our targets now are RU & China

WHITE HOUSE MULLING STRICT EXPORT CONTROLS ON RUSSIA WHICH RESEMBLE IRAN SANCTIONS

Would hit Russia'ss ability to import smartphones,

crucial aircraft & automobile parts...

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Sanctions are the path to inferno called WW3. Nuclear power in both sides make wars obsolete in our time. There will not be winners, only genocide of world innocent people, and huge destruction plus new pandemics. Real PEACE we will get it with global nuclear dismantle and PENTA-NATO opposed. While they exist there will be chances of WW3 & our life is at risk. IF a quick dismantle of NATO alliance happens, then we will have chances for nuke-dismantle world wide. And real world PEACE will be assured. This requires huge movilization of people to streets and the corresponding DEMANDS on UN and International Courts to act and accuse them of crimes against Peace as Nurenberg’ trial set it. The Main leaders of NATO don’t go beyond 100, ease to put all of them in International Courts to deactivate & eliminate them. Then we will go to nuclear dismantle.

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ALBERT EDWARDS' 2022 OUTLOOK: FOUR BIG SURPRISES... AND LOTS OF PAIN

by Tyler Durden

"The Fed may inadvertently burst the Nasdaq bubble pretty soon with just a few taps of their foot on the brake (or less gas)."

One month ago, just after all the Wall Street banks come out with glowing year-ahead outlooks and market forecasts, we observed a funny irony: the arrival of a new covid strain threw everyone in for a loop, one which would only get much worse a few weeks later when Biden's Build Back Better stimulus collapsed.

Since then things have gotten quite embarrassing for the likes of Goldman (and most of its bullish peers), which promptly slashed its GDP forecast over the weekend to just 2.0% from 3.0% and from much higher earlier in the year.

As a reminder, two weeks ago Albert penned a rather doomsday forecast about the future of the market-leading "generals", the FAAMGs, or as they are better known now, the GAMMA stocks, warning that despite the sharply declining EPS of the broader IT sector, the FAANGs continue to trade at a "nosebleed PE valuation at 30x which looks vulnerable vs the market’s 22x - the widest gap since the Nasdaq bubble." This is happening just as forward IT PEs are starting to rerate lower.

See Chart:

US tech stands at peak PE premium but is undermined by falling relative earnings

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/IT%20trailing%20EPS_0.jpg?itok=Yt4aFSUI

As the first "big surprise" of the coming year, Edwards expects that equity markets will startle most investors when they "fall sharply as US tech unravels in the first half." Presenting a slightly different chart from the one he showed two weeks ago, Edwards then addresses the elephant in the room, namely the FAAMGs again, and writes that "unsupported by earnings growth (see chart below) and with poor market breadth (see inside), it may not be higher bond yields that burst this tech bubble."

See Chart:

Floating on air: US tech is having its earning support withdrawn

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/floating%20on%20air.jpg?itok=sOWCN2ks

Edwards then echoes what Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson said last week, and lays out what he believes will be the "second surprise" for next year: if an all-out equity bear market unfolds, "investors will find that while the Powell Put still exists, the strike price may be a lot lower for equities than it was at end 2018." This is almost a carbon copy of what Wilson said last week when he predicted that "the Fed put still exists but the strike price is much lower now, in our view. If we had to guess, it's down 20% rather than down 10% unless credit markets or economic data really start to wobble."

Why? Because as Edwards explains, "policymakers globally now understand that QE creates as many problems (mainly distributional) as it solves, and that fiscal policy must do more of the stimulus work." He then asks a rhetorical question: "Would the Fed really hold back if the S&P was down 30% plus? And wouldn’t that be one huge surprise for investors?." Here we disagree with Edwards: it is our view is that no matter what, the Fed will always panic when stocks are down 15-20% - after all so much of the US wealth effect and household net worth is now tied into stocks, that Powell will not dare risk an all out collapse...

See Charts:

One: Net worth has never been higher

Next: Or as tied to stock market

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/net%20worth%20higher%20tied%20in%20to%20stock%20market_0.jpg?itok=GFxz6LQQ

.. but maybe this time is truly different.

His "third surprise" may be, well, the most surprising - Edwards expects that easing supply bottlenecks combine with soggy commodity prices to drive US headline CPI inflation back well below 2% (this is also the inventory glut thesis floated by Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank). Hence, the SocGen skeptic expects "current inflation fears to evaporate as H1 unfolds and bond yields to decline sharply."

The "fourth and final surprise" will come out of China, where after continued growth disappointments in the face of tight money (that has helped weaken industrial commodity prices in H2 2021), Beijing will be forced to launch a Powell-like policy pivot (we have already seen the early signs of this in the past few weeks) and the Chinese monetary floodgates are re-opened - including a burst in China's credit impulse and rapid renminbi devaluation .

Digging a bit deeper into these four key forecasts/surprises, and starting with the pivotal role that the giga-tech stocks will play, Edwards repeats what he said two weeks ago, and notes that as "we move into next year the US tech sector (and also the FAANGs) could hold the key for markets." Unlike any other major equity market, the S&P is dominated by these stocks and if they go belly up, inevitably so too does the whole market. As the "floating on air" chart above shows, while until recently there had been a supportive underlying earnings story, now the sector has become reliant on massive multiple expansion relative to the rest of the market (also see chart below).

See Chart:

US 12 months forward Pes showing divergence between tech & values sectors

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/12%20month%20forward%20PEs.jpg?itok=w-gJX_cG

Continue reading and see more charts at:

SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/albert-edwards-2022-outlook-four-big-surprises-and-lots-pain

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TOP 10 THEMES FOR 2022: PART 1

1) An overheating economy; 2) Covid optimism; 3) A hypersonic labor market and inflation; 4) Corporate focus on asset efficiency; 5). Inventory glut.

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'REAL' INTEREST RATES: THE MISSING PUZZLE PIECE THE MAINSTREAM IS IGNORING

Inflation is sizzling hot. Gold has historically served as an inflation hedge. So, why hasn’t gold caught a bid?

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US DOMESTIC POLITICS

Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption.

24 STATES SUE BIDEN ADMIN OVER COVID-19 MANDATES FOR CHILDREN, STAFF IN 'HEAD START' EDUCATION PROGRAM

"These unconstitutional mandates have no place in our country..."

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FORMER TRUMP ADVISER MICHAEL FLYNN SUES JAN. 6 COMMITTEE OVER SUBPOENAS

"General Flynn faces the harm of being irreparably and illegally coerced to produce information and testimony in violation of the law and his constitutional rights..."

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US WW3 is based on false allegations

HARVARD PROFESSOR CHARLES LIEBER CONVICTED OF LYING ABOUT CHINA TIES

The jury arrived at the verdict after

2 hours and 45 minutes of deliberations

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NEW YORK LAWMAKER PULLS PUBLIC HEALTH DETAINMENT BILL, BLAMES 'CONSPIRACY THEORISTS'

"This is straight up detention camp stuff in NY!"

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SUPREME COURT COULD DECIDE FATE OF MONSANTO/BAYER ROUNDUP CANCER SUITS

Scientists, Ex-EPA executive, anti-glyphosate activist offer clashing opinions in interviews...

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Vaccine’ owners use terrorism to impose their nasty business

UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA FIRES DIRECTOR OF ETHICS PROGRAM FOR DEFYING COVID-19 VACCINE MANDATE

"The University’s leadership was not interested in scientific debate or ethical deliberation..."

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Que en una Universidad ocurra esto es una vergüenza para la comunidad universitaria de California y para todas las Universidades de America. Esperamos la solidaridad de todos ellos.

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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)

Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis, D rest in limbo

US will be accused in International Courts of starting WW3

UKRAINE HOLDS PROVOCATIVE DRILLS USING US MISSILES NEAR SEPARATIST AREA

Russia responded with its own major aerial combat exercises over Crimea.

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Now US get money from pawns to keep troops there. Is this true or false flag?

JAPAN AGREES TO PAY $9.2BN TO HOST US TROOPS OVER NEXT 5 YEARS

Negotiations for increased cost-sharing

started under the Trump administration..

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