NOV 28 2021 P-B ND SIT ECON y POL Part 1 & P 2
ND denounce-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
Quick file:
Where Will Omicron Send Markets On Monday?
The variant was called "pretty mild" over the weekend.
Are we in for a face-ripper-rally?
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"What we are seeing clinically in South Africa and remember, I’m at the epicenter, that’s where I’m practicing, is extremely mild"
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"...have reasonable degree of confidence that this mutation is unlikely to be more malicious and that the existing vaccines will most likely continue to be effective..."
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ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
AFTER 'RED FRIDAY' ROUT, WILL THE FED SLOW THEIR ROLL?
Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,
What “Black Friday’s” plunge showed was that despite the Fed’s best efforts, “instability” is the most significant risk to the market and you...
Over the last couple of weeks, the market has been warning to the risk of a downturn, all that was needed was a catalyst to change sentiment.
With mutual fund distributions running through the first two weeks of December, there is additional downside pressure on stocks near term. However, our “money flow sell” signal is firmly intact and confirmed by the MACD signal. Such suggests we continue to maintain slightly higher levels of cash.
See Chart:
Spy, SPDR S&P 500 ETF, Trust, D (Dynamic) [ZH1]
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Sp500-Chart2-112621-1024x660.png?itok=9uCBMh2e
Notably, the market is getting oversold near-term, with the money-flow signal depressed. Such suggests that any further weakness will provide a short-term trading opportunity. As discussed last week, the statistical odds are high that we will see a “Santa Rally” as most professional managers will position for year-end reporting.
Just remember, nothing is guaranteed. We can only make educated guesses.
Higher Interest Rates Will Lead To Market Volatility
Did “Black Friday’s” plunge send a warning about rates? Last week, we discussed that it isn’t a question of if, but only one of when.
I showed the correlation between interest rates and the markets. With the sharp drop in rates, it is worth reminding you of the analysis. It is all about “instability.”
The chart below is the monthly “real,” inflation-adjusted return of the S&P 500 index compared to interest rates. The data is from Dr. Robert Shiller, and I noted corresponding peaks and troughs in prices and rates.
See Chart:
The long- term correlation between Stocks and Interest rates
To try and understand the relationship between stock and bond returns over time, I took the data from the chart and broke it down into 46 periods over the last 121-years. What jumps is the high degree of non-correlation between 1900 and 2000. As one would expect, in most instances, if rates fell, stock prices rose. However, the opposite also was true.
See Chart:
Period changes in Rates vs. Markets
Rates Matter
Notably, since 2000, rates and stocks rose and fell together. So bonds remain a “haven” against market volatility.
As such, In the short term, the markets (due to the current momentum) can DEFY the laws of financial gravity as interest rates rise. However, as interest rates increase, they act as a “brake” on economic activity. Such is because higher rates NEGATIVELY impact a highly levered economy:
- Rates increases debt servicing requirements reducing future productive investment.
- Housing slows. People buy payments, not houses.
- Higher borrowing costs lead to lower profit margins.
- The massive derivatives and credit markets get negatively impacted.
- Variable rate interest payments on credit cards and home equity lines of credit increase, reducing consumption.
- Rising defaults on debt service will negatively impact banks which are still not as well capitalized as most believe.
- Many corporate share buyback plans and dividend payments are done through the use of cheap debt.
- Corporate capital expenditures are dependent on low borrowing costs.
- The deficit/GDP ratio will soar as borrowing costs rise sharply.
Critically, for investors, one of the main drivers of assets prices over the last few years was the rationalization that “low rates justified high valuations.”
Either low-interest rates are bullish, or high rates are bullish. Unfortunately, they can’t be both.
What “Black Friday’s” plunge showed was the correlation between rates and equity prices remains. Such is due to market participants’ “risk-on” psychology. However, that correlation cuts both ways. When something changes investor sentiment, the “risk-off” trade (bonds) is where money flows.
The correlation between interest rates and equities suggests that bonds will remain a haven against risk if something breaks given exceptionally high market valuations. The market’s plunge on “Black Friday” was likely a “shot across the bow.”
It might just be worth evaluating your bond allocation heading into 2022.
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/after-red-friday-rout-will-fed-slow-their-roll
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Hedge Funds Suffered The Worst Week In Six Months... And That Was Before Friday
by Tyler Durden
GS Equity Fundamental L/S Performance Estimate fell -1.57% between 11/19 and 11/25, driven by alpha of -1.12% which was "the worst alpha drawdown in nearly six months" and beta of -0.45%.
While last week's Black (or rather red) Friday's illiquid market meltdown was one for the post-Thanksgiving ages, and the collapse for oil bulls was one of the worst daily drops in history, we expect much of the selloff to reverse in the coming hours as the narrative that (C)omicron is the second coming of the bubonic plague, is quickly played down even by the biggest propaganda agents after even the doctors that discovered the Moronic Omicron strain said it was "extremely mild" and is likely destabilized by the dozens of spike protein mutations.
Unfortunately, the reversal of Friday's selloff will be of little comfort to hedge funds who were already getting hammered going into the post-Thanksgiving turmoil, because according to Goldman prime, the GS Equity Fundamental L/S Performance Estimate fell -1.57% between 11/19 and 11/25, driven by alpha of -1.12% which was "the worst alpha drawdown in nearly six months" and beta of -0.45% (from market exposure and market sensitivity combined).
See Chart:
GS Equity Fuundamental Long/Short Performance Estimate
Some more positioning details:
- Overall book Gross leverage rose +1.0 pts to 237.6% (29th percentile one-year) while Net leverage fell -1.5 pts to 84.5% (7th percentile one-year).
- Overall book L/S ratio fell -1.7% to 2.104 (20th percentile one-year). Fundamental L/S Gross leverage rose +0.8 pts to 178.8% (57th percentile one-year) while
- Fundamental L/S Net leverage fell -0.5 pts to 64.5% (31st percentile one-year).
See Charts:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/gross%20and%20net%20leverage.jpg?itok=XfbCDiHD
Continue Reading and see more charts at:
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-funds-suffered-worst-week-six-months-and-was-friday
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Inflation Never Mattered Much For Crypto... Until About A Year Ago
Forward-looking measures of US consumer prices today rank among the most prominent correlations for digital assets.
Inflation never mattered much for crypto... until about a year ago.
See Chart:
BGCI versus US 5y 5y Inflation swap
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bgci%20inflation%20swap.jpg?itok=42YVarqx
.... something we first pointed out a month ago.
See Chart:
USD Inflation swap 2Y 2Y forward vs ETHUSD (log)
Continue reading and see more charts at:
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/inflation-never-mattered-much-crypto-until-about-year-ago
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Futures, Oil, Cryptos Soar As Omicron Panic Fades
BTFD [ See Chart ]
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FREE TRADES - A WORLD WITHOUT PAYMENT-FOR-ORDER-FLOW
...European regulators are in the process of banning payment for order flow too and US regulators may very well follow...
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BLACK FRIDAY SHOPPING DOWN 28% OVER 2019 LEVELS DESPITE IMPROVEMENT OVER LAST YEAR
America is 'back'!
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption.
NEW VARIANT HYSTERIA COMES FROM SAME INSTITUTION THAT POPULARIZED LOCKDOWNS, PREVIOUS COVID SCARES
Imperial College yet again panics the masses...
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This type of terrorism only creates fear…scientist & most people don’t trust on it.
It may be necessary to keep "vaccinating the world for years." = FALSE FLAG
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You must take care of your immune system instead. Vitamins E & D3 all days in the evening is the solution. Exercises under the sun & changes in your daily diet make the rest: replace carbohydrates with greens & roots (beets ++). Using the mask outside home may help to prevent contagious. Don’t get vaccinations unless prescribed by doctors. They already kill many people with vax. Health business must be controlled by people (they local State and regional association of States). Fed and States must confiscate their labs & machinery to pay for their crimes. And the big Pharma Corp must be sued in Courts. NO MORE CRIMINAL BUSINESS with our health.
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WW3 Fear does exist. Only Nuke dismantle worldwide will create a peaceful mind
Fear is power mongers’ best friend...
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PEACE MIND IS THE BEST FRIEND!
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BIDEN ADMIN PUSHES HIGHER FEES FOR OFFSHORE, ONSHORE OIL & GAS COMPANIES
“So, begging OPEC+ for more supply, raiding our strategic reserve to try to lower prices at the pump, and now increasing leasing fees on U.S. producers. Yep, makes perfect sense...if you’re a Democrat,”
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Suspect Arrested In Philadelphia's Record 500th Homicide This Year
The brazen murder took place in broad daylight in South Philadelphia
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Antifa Member Who Took Axe To Senate Office Given Probation And His Axe Back
...while awaiting sentencing, reportedly wrote: “ I am ANTIFA. I will always attack fascists, racial superiority complexes...”
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Freedom and Long Life to antifa militants!
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A President Betrayed by Bureaucrats: Scott Atlas Exposes The Real COVID Disaster
Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Brownstone Institute,
Atlas’s book has exposed a scandal for the ages...
Scott Atlas’s A Plague Upon Our House, is a full and mind-blowing account of the famed scientist’s personal experience with the Covid era and a luridly detailed account of his time at the White House. The book is hot fire, from page one to the last, and will permanently affect your view of not only this pandemic and the policy response but also the workings of public health in general.
You are invited to read it!
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis, D rest in limbo
World Leaders Earn Poor Approval Scores In 2021
Out of the top 13 world leaders, only 4 can currently claim positive net approval ratings... [ See Interesting MAP ]
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STOP imperial GENOCIDE on Afganistan!
Taliban PM Seeks Global Help While Blasting Former US-Backed Regime As Mass Starvation Looms
New prime minister in 1st public address highlights $9 billion frozen in US banks as Afghan children starve amid harsh winter...
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BIDEN'S "STRATEGIC" OIL RESERVE RELEASE WILL MOSTLY GO TO CHINA AND INDIA
Supply shortages have China and India
purchasing sour crude from the Gulf of Mexico...
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"THE OMICRON VARIANT" – MAGIC PILLS, OR SOLVING THE AFRICA PROBLEM?
is it just a coincidence that “Omicron” is an anagram of “moronic”
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Worse than Omicrom are the crimes of ISR on Palestinian & the bombing of Syria
Israel Moves To Ban All Foreigners From Entry Amid Omicron Variant Fears
Defense official: "Authorities are scrambling to locate 800 Israelis who may have been exposed to the new Omicron variant of COVID-19."
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STOP FASCIM in US!: We demand total respect to our freedom of thought
Bovard Blasts The Biden Crackdown On Thought Crimes
The Biden administration is seeking to radically narrow the boundaries of respectable American political thought...
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SPUTNIK NEWS : https://sputniknews.com/
- Maduro Calls EU Observers at Latest Venezuelan Elections ‘Delegation of Spies’
- 'Keep Livin': Matthew McConaughey Decides Not to Run for Texas Governor
- 'French Trump' & Possible Presidential Candidate Zemmour Spotted Showing Middle Finger to Protester
- Market Bull Expects US Fed. Reserve to Lift Interest Rates Six Times til 2024 due to High Inflation
- Republican Rep. Says Congress Leadership 'Needs to Change' as GOP Could Secure Southern Border
- Roger Stone Calls FBI 'Biden's Personal Gestapo' While Speaking of Jan. 6 Committee Subpoena
- Trump's Super PAC to Hold Biggest Fundraiser Yet Amid Biden's Sinking Poll
- His Life, His Rules: Biden Spotted With Mask Down on His Chin While Inside Shop
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NOV 28 2021 PART 2 ND SIT EC y POL SPANISH ++
REBELION
Ecol: El clima, la energí y el mito de la transición D Chavez
Cuba: Tres fotos para entender un premio J. Á Téllez
No more new News or Rebelion esta bloqueado por el fascism
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RT EN ESPAÑOL
OMS: aún no está claro si la variante Ómicron del coronavirus es más peligrosa https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/411952-oms-comunica-variante-omicron-peligrosa
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Taiwán denuncia que 27 aviones militares chinos entraron en su zona de defensa aérea https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/411955-taiwan-27-aviones-militares-chinos-incursion
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Xiomara Castro lidera las elecciones presiden de Honduras, según result preliminares https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/411980-candidata-izquierdista-xiomara-castro-liderar-elecciones
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Perú: sismo de magnitud 7,5 en la provincia peruana de Chachapoyas en Amazonas https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/411919-peru-sismo-amazonas
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Perú: "golpe de Estado" en proceso la moción de vacancia para destituir a P Castillo https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/411965-gobierno-peruano-tilda-golpe-mocion-vacancia
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Taiwán denunc que 27 aviones militares chinos entraron en su zona de defensa aérea https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/411955-taiwan-27-aviones-militares-chinos-incursion
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Afgan: el primer ministro talibán afirma que su movimient no interferirá en otros países https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/411909-primer-ministro-taliban-afirmar-interferir-paises
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Se reanuda el programa nuclear de Irán tras 5 meses de estancamiento https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/411964-reanudar-negociaciones-programa-nuclear-iran
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Maduro califica de "espías" a observadores de la UE en los últimos comicios de Venezuela https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/411968-maduro-espias-observadores-comocios
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inversión en crypto-monedas convirtió en millonaria a mucha gente en el 2021 https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/411914-inversion-convirtio-millonarios-gente-2021
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Científicos psicópata dicen que "todos los gatos domésticos" si tienen rasgos psicópatas https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/411913-cuidado-gatos-son-psicopatas
Yo llevaba a mi gato al mercado en el bolsón delantero de mi casaca y el nunca le saco los dientes a nadie, mas bien le gustaba que le soben la cabeza y el cuello.
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO allies
- There is No Such Thing as a “Confirmed Covid-19 Case”. There is No Pandemic By Prof Michel Chossudovsky,
- Thanksgiving Glorifies the Abhorrent Colonization of Indigenous Peoples By S Hirsh
- The Vaccine is More Dangerous than COVID-19: By Dr. Peter McCullough
- The “Great Reset” or the “Great Pretext” … for Dystopia. By Diana Johnstone
- Trends in Mortality and Morbidity in the Most Vaccinated Countries : Twenty-one Proven Facts By Gérard Delépine,
- A Letter to the Vaccinated By Dr. Angela Durante
- The State, the Deep State, and the Wall Street Overworld By Prof Peter Dale Scott
- America’s New Nuclear Bomb Is Ready: The B61-12 has a Nuclear Warhead with 4 “Selectable Power Options” By Manlio Dinucci
- Dystopian “Great Reset”: “Own Nothing and Be Happy”, Being Human in 2030 By Colin Todhunter,
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