NOV 16 2021 ND SIT ECON y POL Part 1 & P 2
ND denounce-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
by Tyler Durden
"...profit growth has accounted for the entire S&P 500 return in 2021 and will continue to drive gains in 2022."
One day after the increasingly grouchy Morgan Stanley published its 2022 equity market outlook, in which it predicted that the S&P would close the coming year at 4,400, some 6% lower from current levels, as a result of multiple contraction emerging from higher yields and urged clients to exit the US and instead focus on Europe and Japan, Goldman overnight published its own far more cheerful view on where stock will trade in the coming years.
With multiples already stretched, Goldman said that profit growth - which accounted for the entire S&P 500 return in 2021 - will continue to drive gains in 2022. It sees S&P 500 EPS will rising 8% to $226 in 2022 and by 4% to $236 in 2023 (the bank's EPS estimate is 2% above 2022 bottom-up consensus). Curiously, with companies consistently expanding profit margins despite input cost pressures and supply chain challenges, Goldman expects profit margins to rise another 40 bps to 12.6% in 2022 before declining by 20 bp in 2023 due to corporate tax reform.
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/goldman%202022%20forecast.jpg?itok=DEzhuSDB
Of course, Goldman's base case will likely be wrong (as was its forecast in Nov 2020 when the bank forecast the S&P rising to "only" 4,300 despite predicting a "Roaring '20s Redux"), and so it has also supplied two alternative projections: i) a faster growth and lower inflation than expected, would lift the S&P 500 to 5500, 17% above the current level; ii) Slower growth and higher inflation would reduce the S&P 500 by 25% to 3500. With the Fed set to hike at least twice in 2022, our money is on the latter, unless of course a market crash some time in the H2 of 2022 spooks the Fed and it promptly is forced to unwind its tightening.
See Chart:
Goldman Sachs top down S&P 500 Index Model
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/goldman%20scenarios.jpg?itok=KR3y-tyK
In terms of macro assumptions, Goldman's economists expect strong but decelerating US and global economic growth in 2022. Based on the bank's top-down model, US economic growth accounts for roughly 50% of the variability in annual EPS growth. Kostin calculates that each 1% increase in GDP growth translates to roughly $7 of S&P 500 EPS; the bank's macro earnings model also assumes the labor market will continue to tighten, 2-year and 10-year interest rates will rise gradually, and oil prices will decline by year-end 2022 after peaking at $90/bbl early next year.
See Charts:
Exhibit 4: Macro Assumptions to our 2022 & 2023 S&P 500 forecasts
Exhibit 5: We forecast EPS growths 8% in 2022 & 4% in 2023 due to tax reform
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/macro%20assumptions.jpg?itok=SDBA1ijz
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Finally, looking closer at valuation, Goldman expects that rising interest rates will be offset by equity risk premium (ERP) compression and lead to a roughly flat forward P/E multiple in 2022. Goldman economists expect the nominal 10-year US Treasury yield will rise to 2.0% by year-end 2022, driven primarily by increasing real rates. If this forecast is realized, both nominal and real interest rates would still remain low by historical standards and continue to support the relative attractiveness of equities. The bank's ERP model includes changes in 10-year breakeven inflation, the 10s2s slope of the yield curve, consumer confidence, policy uncertainty, and the size of the Fed balance sheet. Kostin forecasts the ERP will decline to 4.6% by year-end 2022 from 5.0% currently as investors gain clarity and confidence regarding the inflation and fiscal policy outlooks. This would still register modestly above the 45-year average.
Combining Goldman's interest rate assumptions and its ERP model imply a forward P/E multiple of 21.6x at year-end 2022 compared with 21.8x today. As Kostin admits, the start of a Fed hiking cycle, rising real rates, and a decelerating economic growth environment suggest further absolute valuation expansion is unlikely, which is why Goldman is confined to forecasting EPS growth as the driver of higher stock prices. Even so, at 21.6x, the P/E multiple would rank in the 93rd percentile vs. history in absolute terms. However, relative equity valuations vs. US Treasury yields would still register as attractive compared with historical averages (46th percentile).
See Charts:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/gs%20rates%20forecasts.jpg?itok=9_jB7NqM
In effect, this entire note boils down to two things: the Fed model, i.e., rates are so low so investors have to buy stocks... and FOMO, or there is nothing else all that money sloshing around can buy.
READ the full article at:
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Stocks & Dollar Jump As Bonds, Bullion, & Bitcoin Dump
by Tyler Durden
...the dollar closed at its highest in 13 months...
After a chaotic open (as retail sales sparked optimism and Fed's Bullard did the opposite), the trend was 'buy all the things' in stock-land until the European close. Then Small Caps and Big Tech diverged (lower and higher respectively)...
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2021-11-16_13-00-06.jpg?itok=BJ1uWj8N
Also, that seems unlikely given the hawkish shift in STIRs today.
Nasdaq's (growth-dominant) strong outperformance has erased all of Russell 2000 (value-dominant) for November...
See Chart:
Russell 2000 / Nasdaq 100
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2021-11-16_12-29-42.jpg?itok=84ouXvGe
"Most Shorted" Stocks were squeezed yet again
See Chart;
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm3CB5.jpg?itok=kZdiUJPz
Treasury yields were higher on the day with the long-end underperforming (but the moves were modest compared to yesterday's chaos). 30Y Yields are now up over 9bps this week while 2Y is unch....
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm63A9.jpg?itok=-obsfxZC
The dollar closed at its highest since early October 2020...
See Chart:
Bloomberg Dollar Index
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmC82B.jpg?itok=O51iC8gB
Interestingly, the last few weeks have seen the correlation between bitcoin and gold increase significantly as both have benefited from inflation-safe-haven flows..
See Chart:
Bitcoin / gold correlation
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm536B.jpg?itok=b4RgDYVx
Gold was down today, but held well above the $1800 level...
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2021-11-16_12-20-22.jpg?itok=p3MNhzYX
Finally, it may be time for a “great rotation” away from shares of faster-growing U.S. companies and toward cheaper stocks, according to Crescat Capital. The money manager cited a comparison of enterprise value relative to sales for the Russell 1000 growth and value indexes in a blog post Saturday.
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm18C.jpg?itok=w_xdu5yO
The growth-value gap widened to 3.41 points, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, exceeding a peak of 3.40 points from July 2000, shortly after the end of an Internet-driven bull market.
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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-dollar-jump-bonds-bullion-bitcoin-dump
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Coal Demand Booms Under Biden As Prices Hit 2009 Levels
Make Coal Great Again.
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WTI Rebounds On Small Crude Build, Big Cushing Draw
Cushing crude stocks fell once again, getting ever closer to operational limits...
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beyond equity volatility...
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Daily Briefing: 'Tis the Season to Shop & Be Merry Despite Inflation
Tony Greer returns to the Daily Briefing to discuss a spike in retail sales in October, even in the face of rising inflation. Not only are sales up 1.7% from…
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption.
Buchanan: Are Democrats Looking To The Lifeboats?
Only 8% of the nation thinks he has done a “great deal” in his first year, which corresponds to FDR’s famous “First 100 Days” in 1933...
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FBI Whistleblower Reveals Biden DOJ Activated Counterterrorism Division Against Protesting Parents
This would suggest Garland lied under oath...
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Biden Reportedly Begged China To Release Oil Reserves During Xi Call; Quid Pro Quo?
...the question is, what did Biden offer in return?
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Peter Schiff: The Only Thing Transitory Is The Fed's Credibility
"The Fed is basically doubling down on its theory that this is transitory. All they are willing to concede is that this transitory period is going to last longer than they thought."
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis, D rest in limbo
China's Bitcoin Ban Is The Unnoticed Geopolitical Event Of The Decade
China's decision to ban bitcoin mining could prove to be the biggest geopolitical faux pas of the next decade
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SPUTNIK NEWS : https://sputniknews.com/
- Ted Cruz Presses DHS Head Mayorkas Over 'Biden Cages' for Migrant Kids at Southern Border
- Inflation Has Been Killing You For 40 Years. Why Are You Noticing Now?
- White House Clarifies Chinese President Xi Absolutely Not ‘An Old Friend’ of Biden’s
- Two Missiles Fired by Israel Towards South of Damascus, Syrian State Media Report
- Chilean Senate Narrowly Fails to Impeach President Piñera Over Pandora Papers Leaks
- Country That Set Off H-Bomb in Space Calls Russian Shootdown of Own Satellite ‘Reckless’
- VP Harris' Niece Meena Wants Parents to Focus on Anti-Racism, Says ‘White Supremacists’ Founded US
- Advocacy Group Warns Counties in 5 US States to Clean Voter Lists or Face Lawsuits
- US Man Gets 18 Months in Jail for Threatening to Kill 2 Senators
- Biden Says Build Back Better Bill to Pass US House, Senate Within Week
- Biden Says US 'Not Going to Change' Policy on Taiwan, Not Encouraging Independence
- FBI Using Counterterrorism Tool to Track Parents Challenging Educators, House Republicans Say
- No ‘Unconditional Love’: Texas Church Derided For Chanting Viral Anti-Biden Slogan
- Fossil Fuel Companies Claim They’re Leading Clean Energy Charge After Decades of Fighting It
- Russian Military Publishes First Video From Successful Anti-Satellite Missile Test
- US Says Routinely Operates in Sync With Allies After Jets Seen Over Poland-Belarus Border
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NOV 16 2021 PART 2 ND SIT EC y POL SPANISH ++
REBELION
Eco-POL: La China de Xi, triunfalismo y nubarrones de tormenta EM
PAL: Mujeres palestinas: ORG y lucha frente a violencias E Llopis
UE: Polonia, ping-pong en la frontera Guadi Calvo
Ecuad: El día de la masacre obrera J J. Paz-y-Miño C
ALC: Amenaza neofascista y estrategias de contención democ F de la C
Values: Fraternidad y democ radical Luis Roca
ARG: Renovac parlament y horizontes políticos J C. G
COP26: El acuerdo final prorroga lo improrrogable
BOL: Geopolítica del nuevo intento golpista R B
T POL: Socialismo, capitalismo y alternativa cooperat DF
BRA: Enriquecerse con la tragedia ajena Eric N
Jeff Hearn: Igualdad = socied menos violent y más feliz CM
Chile: Las escalofriantes medidas de Kast G M
COL: Solidaridad con Elías Díaz de poets, escritors y artists d España
COL: Denuncia del CPHH en nombre de Elías Díaz
Opin: La (re)formación de la clase obrera B J Silver
Cuba -15 d Nov: La Habana tomada por la alegría Pedro R
Cuba: Violenc de género: orientación y denuncia D Edith
Perú: Del “buen vivir inca” a la econ ecomunitarista SLV
Ecuad: masacre policial: Al menos 58 personas mueren SLV
MX: Detencions, deportac y crimen de migrantes G C
España: 19 años del desastre del Prestige, no olvidamos
Mundo: El hambre avanza indetenible
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RT EN ESPAÑOL
BOL: Senado aprueba por unanimidad la derogación de ley de lavado de activos: TP
https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/410499-senado-bolivia-derogar-ley-madre-protestas
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Rusia dice haber derribado un satélite durante prueba en el espacio y rechaza Acu-US https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/410500-rusia-dice-derribar-satelite-negar-acusaciones-eeuu
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Senado de Chile no alcanza los votos necesar para el juicio político contra S Piñera https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/410543-senado-chile-rechazar-destitucion-pinera
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Mujer ARG es la 2da persona del mundo que se habría curado de CV por inmunid naturl https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/410509-mujer-argentina-segunda-persona-curada-vih-inmunidad-propia
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El mayor complejo industrial flotante del planeta: Arabia Saudi construirá la ciudad de Oxagon https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/410537-arabia-saudita-construir-futuristica-ciudad
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Siria denuncia ataque israelí con 2 misiles en las afueras de Damasco https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/410574-siria-denunciar-ataque-israeli-2-misiles
Pronto los neo-nazis de ISR sufrirán una lluvia de misiles que no podrán detener
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Brasil busca acuerdo con Elon Musk para monitorear la Amazonía con satélites Starlink https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/410567-gobierno-brasil-buscar-cerrar-acuerdo-elon-musk-amazonia
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Jordania acusa a Irán de alinear un arquero hombre en partido de fútbol femenino https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/410463-jordania-acusar-iran-alinear-hombre-futbol-femenino
El gender de una hermafrodita (she-male) lo decide ella. Asi ocurrió en las olimpiadas de JA y es lo más humado del mundo. Ningún dogma religiose debe interferir en ello.
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CROSS TALK https://www.rt.com/shows/crosstalk/
Did Biden just give China green light to 'reunify' with Taiwan?
Presidents Biden and Xi seem for all appearances to regard each other as old friends, reminiscing about their long acquaintance at the conclusion of Monday’s three-hour virtual summit. But is peaceful cooperation really in store for Beijing and Washington? And how does this square with Biden's tough talk on China and appearance of commitment to Taiwanese self-determination? Investigative journalist Ben Swann has the details. Former USTR official Steve Gill joins Scottie Nell Hughes to discuss the disturbing shades of doublespeak coloring the hours-long summit.
Hay 2 factores que explicarian un acuerdo secreto entre US-CH. 1-US necesita vender su Soya a China. 2- No hay modo d que la guerra militar entre ambos la gane el US. Los misiles nucleares de CH ya están instalados frente al US (pequeños submarinos guiados via satélite. Uno de ellos fue descubierto y cuando trataron de capturarlo les estallo en la nariz). US ha tratado de destruir el satelite CH y RU acaba de tomar la posta con un nuevo satélite. No hay modo de ganar la guerra por el control de Taiwan. El US tiene los días contados para retirar de Taiwan su arsenal militar. Ese habría sido el acuerdo.
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO allies
- The Covid Hoax: The Steamroller to Tyranny. “It’s not Just a Question of Vaccination or No Vaccination” By Peter Koenig,
- Does the Covid-19 Pandemic really Exist By Prof Michel Chossudovsky
- Covid Jab Is Far More Dangerous than Advertised. By Dr. Peter McCullough
- “The Great Reset” Is Here: Follow the Money. “Insane Lockdown” of the Global Economy, “The Green Agenda” By F. William Engdahl
- Covid-19 and the New World Order. Who Owns Planet Earth? By Joachim Hagopian
- Will Another Gaddafi Lead Libya? By Steven Sahiounie,
- Austrian Sports Legend Says He Is ‘Ashamed of the Government’ By Free West Media,
- Proof that the COVID Vaccines Are the Most Deadly Vaccines in Human History By Steve Kirsch
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VOLTAIRE NET ORG https://www.voltairenet.org/en
The Cebrowski doctrine in the Horn of Africa
After Somalia, South Sudan and Sudan, the chaos is spreading to Ethiopia and soon to Eritrea
by Thierry Meyssan
SOURCE: https://www.voltairenet.org/article214712.html
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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’ team
- “Hell on Earth”: Millions of Afghans Face Starvation as U.S. & West Freeze Billions in Gov’t Funds
- Historian Alfred McCoy Predicts the U.S. Empire is Collapsing as China’s Power Grows
- Glasgow Pact Slammed for Betraying the Global Poor Who Suffer Most from the Climate Emergency
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