OCT 3 2021 ND SIT ECON y POL Part 1 & P 2
ND denounce-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
Evergrande Stock Suspended Amid Default Concerns; Sending Futures, Cryptos Sliding
Futures got dinged on Sunday night and Hong Kong stocks slumped the most in two weeks after shares in Evergrande and its property management unit were suspended from trading Monday in Hong Kong, as traders eyes a fresh
The news of the suspension sent S&P futures in the red after earlier gains, with Japan's Topix also reversing an early gain...
See Chart:
Emini S&P Futures vs Evergrande suspended
... and sent Hong Kong's Hang Seng falling as much as 2.7%, the most in two weeks, as shares of pharmaceutical and tech companies slide. Following the Merck news, Wuxi Biologics slumped as much as 8.1%, the most since Aug. 20, while CSPC Pharmaceutical tumbles as much as 7.1% In tech land, the Hang Seng Tech Index extended its fall to 2.6%; Ping An Healthcare and Alibaba Health drag it lower, declining at least 6% each
The Evergrande suspension also hammered cryptos although why anyone, beyond a handful of confused algos, would sell here when China can no longer ban bitcoin and its peers having already banned it about 17 times
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/cryptos%2010.3.jpg?itok=vj9Ue4w0
Yet as nervous algos were once again googling Evergrande, it appears that China was already taking active steps at ringfencing the coming default, with Caillan reporting that Hopson Development - which is also halted in HK this morning - was set to acquire a 51% stake in Evergrande Property Services for more than HK$40b, a template for what future piecemeal (forced) bailouts of the insolvent property developer will look like.
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These Are The Four Main Risks In The Upcoming Q3 Earnings Season
Four key risks to watch: (1) Supply chains, (2) oil,
(3) labor costs, and (4) China growth.
As Goldman recently warned (again) S&P 500 returns "have typically been below-average when rates rise by 1 standard deviation in a month and negative when rates rise by 2 standard deviations. The recent move in nominal rates was a 1.5 standard deviation event on a monthly basis, but reached the 2 standard deviation threshold on a 10-day basis."
See Chart:
Interest rates has sharped risen during the las two weeks
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/interest%20rates.jpg?itok=OxWYLQBo
So going back to Goldman's key risk factors we start with...
1. Supply chains.The ISM Suppliers Deliveries Index averaged 74 during the past six months (>50 indicates slower deliveries), the highest level since 1974. Of the 26 S&P 500 firms that reported results since the start of September, 18 mentioned supply chains on their earnings calls, primarily within Consumer and Industrial sectors. The average consensus revision to 4Q 2021 EPS for these firms has equaled -4%.
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/supply%20chain%20mentions.jpg?itok=pR7nzfEP
Goldman economists estimate that strong goods demand accounts for two-thirds of global manufacturing delays. Ironically, Goldman then writes that the strong demand backdrop and expectations that disruptions will ease is likely one reason that 2022 EPS estimates for these firms have been roughly unchanged. This is completely wrong as even the CEO of Mersk said that global demand has to ease so that supply can catch up and supply-chains can normalize; absent this we will remain in an indefinite state of stagflation. Where Goldman does get it right is that the largest firms have highlighted mechanisms including price hikes, cost controls, leveraging scale,and switching suppliers to mitigate the impact of supply chain disruptions, which however means sharply higher prices for a much longer length of time than the "transitory" argument suggests.
As such, Goldman warns that "a key risk is that supply chain normalization takes longer than expected and that unmet demand today is not fully recouped in later quarters. Services industries such as Financials and Software have less EPS risk than goods-producing industries such as Industrials."
2.OIL. Brent oil prices have risen by 51% YTD and Goldman's commodities team recently hiked its year-end forecast to $90/bbl, above their previous forecast of $80. However, contrary to expectations that these will be rapidly passed on to consumers leading to sharp gains for energy companies, Kostin says that "based on our top-down earnings model, oil prices have a roughly neutral impact on aggregate S&P 500 EPS" and calculates that every 10% increase in Brent prices boosts S&P500 EPS by just 0.3%.
3. LABOR COSTS. Ongoing commentary from corporations shows an acute focus on rising wages and the lack of labor supply. Goldman's adjusted Wage Tracker sits at the highest level since 2007.
SEE CHART:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/wage%20tracker%20gas_0.jpg?itok=7_tw4wXx
Read more comments & charts & going to the next point:
4. China growth. Goldman's China Economics team recently lowered their Q3 growth forecasts to 0% (QoQ) amid sharp cuts to production in a range of high energy intensity industries and the property market slowdown.
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/China%20GDP%20revised_0.jpg?itok=Ln9tjwXJ
The good news - according to the traditionally cheerful Goldman - is that downside risk from these four factors appears relatively contained in aggregate today, but certain stocks face more risks than others. Indeed, several early reporters beat on 3Q EPS but offered weak guidance (MKC, MU, NKE). Consistent with recent quarters, and as we predicted recently, guidance will be a clearer differentiator of stock price reactions than 3Q results during the season. As Kostin - correctly - cautions, earnings revisions typically carry a particularly strong signal for stock returns in the current backdrop of decelerating economic growth, underscoring the importance of identifying the “winners” and “losers” around these key macro risks. Readers should monitor management commentary to assess the implications of these macro factors on the S&P 500 earnings outlook.
Finally, in addition to these four themes, Biden's corporate tax hikes remain a broad-based, imminent risk to the 2022 EPS outlook. As Goldman warned previously, a change in the corporate tax code would have a direct impact on nearly all S&P 500 companies. The bank's baseline assumption for a 25% statutory corporate tax rate and an increase in the foreign income tax rate would represent a 5% hit to 2022 S&P 500 EPS. However, thanks to growing bickering between progressive and centrist Democrats, uncertainty about whether tax reform will actually become law is high, as the House delayed a vote on the bipartisan infrastructure bill. Prediction market odds of an increase in the corporate tax currently stand at 66%.
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/prediction%20market%20odds.jpg?itok=vE7RVja8
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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/these-are-four-main-risks-upcoming-q3-earnings-season
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Morgan Stanley: Tapering Is Tightening... And Dip Buying Is Starting To Fail
After the Evergrande dip and rally, stocks have probed lower and taken out the prior lows, making this the first time that buying the dip hasn’t worked, simultaneously violating important technical support.
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption.
CDC Director Says Vaccines 'Can't Prevent Transmission'
Because not respect to parents’ choice:
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Corporate Insiders With Impeccable Trading Records Send Clear Signal "Stock Market Is Rigged"
"It's really easy to say that our markets should be a level playing field, but the reality is that they never have been."
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Government Debt Is Taxation Without Representation
Government officials are tying a millstone around the necks of future Americans...and future taxes are just one part of it.
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90,000 Educators Beg Biden: We Need FBI Protection From "Mobs" Of Parents Irate Over Mask Mandates
"...respectfully asks for federal law enforcement and other assistance to deal with the growing number of threats of violence and acts of intimidation occurring across the nation".
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Progressives Blink First, Offer To Cut Spending Short To Reduce $3.5 Trillion Plan
"It’s going to be somewhere between $1.5 and $3.5..."
See Video: FACE THE NATION: AOC
https://twitter.com/i/status/1444675394439888897
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This may be speculation, what is certain is the threat of AUKUS to China
Reports Of Military Planes At Bagram Air Base Fuel Speculation Of Chinese-Afghan Alliance
Months ago, Bagram Air Base became center stage of the calamitous withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan. Since then, foreign policy experts have opined that it will unveil the next act of that tragedy in welcoming
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Air Force's Secretive X-37B Spaceplane Orbits Earth For 500th Day
However, a few unclassified experiments have been named.
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Slaves have not freedom of expression:
$2.2 Million Raised For Marine In Military Detainment After Criticizing Afghan Chaos
“People are upset because their senior leaders let them down. And none of them are raising their hands and accepting accountability or saying, ‘We messed up.'”
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis, D rest in limbo
- Luongo: Energy Subsidies, Bitcoin, & The Socialist Takeover That Isn't
Bitcoin, among other technologies, is slowly eating away at these unsustainable markets while the socialists in China, France and yes, Washington D.C. scramble to keep the central planners’ dream alive
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"It's A Really Dangerous Situation" - Afghanistan Faces Imminent Blackouts As Power Bills Skyrocket
Too bad the IEA won't be able to turn to its new allies in Beijing...they're somewhat preoccupied with a power crisis of their own right now...
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In Deep Ship: What's Really Driving The Supply-Chain Crisis
By Michael Every and Matteo Iagatti of Rabobank
It is impossible to ignore the current shipping crisis and its impact on global supply chains and economies.
Summary
- It is impossible to ignore the current shipping crisis and its impact on global supply chains
- A common view is that this is all the result of Covid-19. Yet while Covid has played a key role, it is only part of a far larger interconnected set of problems
- This report examines current shipping market dynamics; overlooked “Too Big to Sail” structural issues; a brewing political tsunami as a backlash; possible Cold War icebergs ahead; and the ‘ship of things to come’ if maritime past is a guide to maritime future
- The central argument is that while central banks and governments both insist inflation is transitory and will fall once supply-chain bottlenecks are resolved, shipping dynamics suggest they are closer to becoming systemically entrenched
- Moreover, both historical and current trends towards addressing such problems suggest potential global market disruptions at least equal to the shocks we have already experienced. Many ports will get caught in this storm, if so
Ready to ship off?
Businesses face huge headaches as supply dries up. Consumers see bare shelves and rising prices. Governments have no concrete solutions – save the army? Economists have to discuss the physical economy rather than a model. Central banks still assume this will all resolve itself. And shippers make massive profits.
This report will explore the shipping issue coast-to-coast, and past-to-present in six ‘containers’:
“Are you shipping me?”, a deep-dive into market dynamics and supply-demand causes of soaring shipping prices;
“To Big to Sail”, a key structural issue driving things;
“Tsunami of politics” of the looming backlash to what is happening;
“Cold War icebergs” of fat geopolitical tail risks;
“Ship of things to come?”, asking if the maritime past is a potential guide to maritime future; and
“Wait and sea?”, a strategic overview and conclusion.
See Figure 1
The ix containers of problems for shipping
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/ship%201.jpg?itok=6GLtr5fU
Are You Shipping Me?
Since 2020, global shipping has been frenetic, with equally frenetic shipping rates (figure 2); difficulties for both businesses and consumers; and container-carrier profits.
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/ship%201_0.jpg?itok=4DwdMCR6
Is Covid-19 driving these developments, or are there other structural and cyclical factors at play? Let’s take stock.
One root of the problem…
In 2020, COVID-19 become a global pandemic, and lockdowns ensued: factories, restaurants, and shops all closed, bringing global supply chain almost to a halt. In this context, container carriers had no visibility on future demand and did the only reasonable thing: cut capacity.
See Chart:
That is that you call ‘cancel culture’
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/ship%202.jpg?itok=ZHOGQaOG
Continue reding & see more charts at:
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/deep-ship-deep-dive-supply-chain-crisis
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Tit for Tat: you plan to use Taiwan to bomb CH: we will destroy you & then invade it
China Sends Nearly 40 Jets Toward Taiwan For 2nd Consecutive Day
China ramped up size of incursions into Saturday night..
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Chaos theory is a set of speculations that don’t deserve the word ‘theory’
A Butterfly Has Flapped Its Wings
One or more butterflies have flapped their wings and the impending storms are on their way
We just don’t have the data or the models (currently) to link that butterfly will storm in New York.
Here there are 6 issues were the butterfly can display its storm & chaos
Afghanistan, Energy Problems in Europe and China, Jobs, Transitory Inflation. Central Banks, China Real Estate
SPUTNIK NEWS : https://sputniknews.com/
“ In Chaos Theory, patterns only emerge over time and only once those patterns emerge can we see them for what they were. I think we have had several critical events and “moments” that will play out in the coming weeks and most seem bad (except that they do reinforce my longer-term view that we will develop a domestic manufacturing base in the coming years).
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SO: ZERO THEORY NOT EVEN REMOTE FEMAL INTUITION on those issues
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J&J Vaccine Possibly Linked To Two More Serious Health Conditions, EU Regulator Finds
The European Union’s drug regulator on Oct. 1 recommended updating the label for Johnson & Johnson’s COVID-19 vaccine with warnings for two more serious health conditions likely linked with the vaccine.
The regulator agreed to send warning statements directly to health care practitioners regarding both the clotting and the immune condition..
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OCT 3 2021 PART 2 ND SIT EC y POL SPANISH ++
REBELION
US: Perdido y encontr en Guantán: M Adayfi, el deteDnido 441 A+D
ALC: Sistemas sanitarios basados en otras visiones del mundo Erica A
Mund: Teoría no occidental de las relaciones internacionales L S
Ecol-S: Modernización ecológica o «ecologización transmoderna»?
UE: Yanis Varoufakis se despide de Angela Merkel Yanis Varufakis
Puerto Rico Apagones : miremos el bosque, los no sargazos J N M
Libro: Prisión, justicia y derechos humanos Sergio Ferrari
Cultur: Por un esperancismo sin euforia Salvador López
ARG: Ley de hidrocarburos y lógica increment para benefic exportac
ECOL: Muchos humanos olvidan la naturalez donde viven R Pardo
Econ: La 1ra crisis de reproducción integral del sistema Salvo Torre
BRA: Lula y la imposibilidad de la tercera vía J V Santos
Chile: El siniestro plan anti mapuche que se cayó el 2018 Minga
Cuba: Cubainformación, nueva diana del bloqueo a Cuba
Opinion: Pospandemia y límites de la política J M C
COL: DDHH, democracia, paz y libertad sindical: agendas en crisis
Opin: Atrapados en la particularidad inmediata F U
Opin: Función histórica del Bien Común y economías transformad
Ecuad: El derecho a la tierra no es una dadiva del gobier de turno
Ecuad: Los megarricos ganan más de 414 000 dólares al mes J B
EE.UU: intenta volver a su “patio trasero”
UE: Parejas elecciones en Alemania marcan el adiós d Á Merkel
África: Violencia de El Aaiún contra médica y dos abog d españa
PAL-OM: Cuando ya no hay nada que perder María Landi
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RT EN ESPAÑOL
Tres jefes de Estado: Lasso, Piñera y Abinader están vinculad con paraísos fiscales https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/405886-pandora-papeles-secretos-financieros-latinoamerica
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Secretos financieros al descubierto: publican los Papeles de Pandora https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/405877-publican-papeles-pandora
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Rusia lanza por 1ra vez el misil hipersónico Tsirkón desde un submarino nuclear https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/405916-rusia-lanzar-misil-hipersonico-tsirkon-submarino
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Suspenden de cotización las acciones del gigante inmobiliario chino Evergrande https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/405906-suspenden-cotizacion-acciones-evergrande
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Snowden revela "lado gracioso de filtraciones apocalípticas" de Papeles de Pandora https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/405890-edward-snowden-lado-gracioso-papeles-pandora
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El volcán de la isla española de La Palma continúa arrojando ríos de lava https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/405917-volcan-isla-lapalma-rios-lava
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3.200 sacerdotes pederastas desde 1950 dentro de la Iglesia católica francesa https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/405862-pederastas-francia-sacerdotes-abusos-sexuales
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El jefe de Inteligencia de ISR asegura que Irán no tendrá bomba nuclear a corto plazo https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/405851-israel-iran-no-tener-bomba-nuclear
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Corea del N acusa al Consejo de Seguridad de la ONU de "estándares de doble rasero" https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/405857-corea-norte-acusa-consejo-seguridad-onu-doble-rasero
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CROSS TALK https://www.rt.com/shows/crosstalk/
On Contact – America's Fate: Oligarchy or Autocracy
The competing systems of power in the United States are divided between oligarchy and autocracy. There are no other alternatives. Neither are pleasant. Each has peculiar and distasteful characteristics. Each pays lip service to the fictions of democracy and constitutional rights. And each exacerbates the widening social and political divide, and the potential for violent conflict. The oligarchs from the establishment Republican Party, figures such as Liz Cheney, Mitt Romney, George and Jeb Bush and Bill Kristol, have joined forces with the oligarchs in the Democratic Party to defy the autocrats in the new Republican Party who have coalesced in cult-like fashion around Donald Trump
SOURCE: https://www.rt.com/shows/on-contact/536306-richard-wolff-capitalism-tools/
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO allies
- Dr. Carrie Madej: First U.S. Lab Examines “Vaccine” Vials, Horrific Findings Revealed
- “We Are on the Edge of an Abyss—And Moving in the Wrong Direction.” UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres By Carla Stea,
- The End of the Speed Limit on the Highway to Nowhere By Edward Curtin
- US Navy Awards Boeing $220M Taiwan Harpoon Contract By Inder Singh Bisht,
- Forced Vaccinations Get Worse – Louisiana Health System Now Requires Spouses of Employees to Get Vaccinated By Sundance
- 1,969 Fetal Deaths Recorded Following COVID-19 Shots but Criminal CDC Recommends Pregnant Women Get the Shot By Brian Shilhavy
- CDC Allows Hospitals to Classify Dead Vaxxed People as “Unvaccinated” By C N
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