Aug 28 2021 ND SIT EC y POL Part 1 + P2
ND denounce-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
THE STRUCTURAL CHANGES TAKING PLACE IN THE ECONOMY ARE "VERY DANGEROUS"
A toxic brew is being created by current Fed policies that highlight its role as the great enabler...
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THE ECONOMIC DEBACLE OF US EMPIRE:
THE BEAR CASE IN 12 "CHARTS OF DARKNESS"
"it’s no coincidence that since the outbreak of COVID-19 global central banks have bought $834mn of financial assets every 60 minutes…and every 60 minutes the market cap of global tech stocks has risen $780mn."
One such stubborn holdout is BofA whose Chief Investment Strategist, Michael Hartnett has for much of the past six months been warning that a stagflationary bust in the economy is coming, in keeping with BofA's year-end target of 3,800.
Last Friday, in his weekly Flow Show notes, Hartnett went so far as to put a tentative time for when he expects stocks to reverse. Pointing out that the annual change in stocks closely tracks that of the ISM/PMIs with a slight lag, Hartnett said that October is when the chickens will come home to roost as that's when the .average ISM PMI will turn negative, with stocks set to follow.
See Chart:
ISM & S&P500. YoY%
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/ISm%20index.jpg?itok=RIGPNHJ9
It's not just the correlation: in keeping with his favorite 3Ps - Policy, Prices and Profits - Hartnett lays out several other reasons why the 4th P, the party, can't keep going on forever.
Hartnett concluded by predicting "negative returns stocks & credit in H2", BUT one week later, both stocks and credit keep rising, with the S&P closing above 4,500 for the first time.
So fast forward one week when in his latest Friday Flow Show, Hartnett - getting more and more gloomy as a result of the meltup that just one stop - published a note titled CHARTS OF DARKNESS, which recaps his pent-up disillusionment with the market in the form of a thematic “dirty dozen” charts on the pandemic, the macro dislocations, wealth inequality caused by the central bank liquidity supernova, coming stagflation & the H2 EPS risks from the US consumer, China & credit markets.
So without further ado, let's go down the list of charts starting with...
PANDEMIC:
COVID-19 pandemic by the numbers…5.1 billion vaccinations, 214 million cases, 4.5 million deaths (Chart 3); the policy reaction…$32 trillion of monetary and fiscal stimulus; the Wall St reaction…global stock market capitalization up $57 trillion in 18 months; despite >5bn vaccines, societies & economies remain hostage to the pandemic, allowing Wall St to discount endless stimulus to the benefit of asset prices; the “end” of the pandemic will be very negative for Wall St, but few think it “ends” soon.
See Chart 3:
The global COVID 19 pandemic in numbers
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/global%20covid%20macro.jpg?itok=SsGzBUwf
Pandemic & Wall St: the battle between lockdown & reopening battle has caused significant relative asset price movements; the performance of reopening vs lockdown baskets is highly correlated with bond yields (Chart 4) as well as the relative performance of HY bonds vs IG bonds, small cap stocks vs large cap, value vs growth and so on (see last week’s Flow Show); the Delta variant in the past two months has caused “lockdown” to outperform “reopening”.
See Chart 4:
Reopening vs Lockdown & the 30 Y Treasury Yield
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/reopening%20lockdwon%20portfllio.jpg?itok=3WS4kJuz
THE FED & INEQUALITY
The central bank response to COVID-19 has “accelerated” inequality; between 1950 and the late-90s tech bubble, the ratio of US private sector financials assets (Wall Street proxy) vs the GDP of the US (Main Street proxy) oscillated between 2.5x and 3.5x; the radical interventionist policy of Quantitative Easing since the GFC has seen global central banks buy $22.4tn of financial assets (Fed & ECB have launched 7 QE programs – Chart 6), boosting the valuation of financial assets in the US to 6.4x the size of GDP.
See Chart 6:
Central Banks have spurred greater wealth inequality
THE FED & TECH
Fed’s determination to stoke Wall St exuberance & Main St inequality has been particularly positive to the US tech sector; the market cap of FAAMG + Netflix & Tesla equates to the 3rd largest country in the world in GDP terms; the Fed has been tech’s best friend for the past 10 years (Chart 7)…it’s no coincidence that since the outbreak of COVID-19 global central banks have bought $834mn of financial assets every 60 minutes…and every 60 minutes the market cap of global tech stocks has risen $780mn.
See Chart 7:
FAANG & Fed ‘s Excellent Adventure
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/FAANG.jpg?itok=W80BYzOl
THE FED & THE BOJ & THE ECB (Banks + nasty business= Financial Oligarchy)
BoJ has operated a zero interest rate policy for over 20 years, the ECB for almost 10 years, neither have been able normalize monetary policy, and both remain the “cement in the Fed’s shoes” (Chart 8); note zero rates in Europe & Japan in recent decades have not been asset positive; the US is different with a housing market that still is rate-sensitive, and a behemoth tech sector within the domestic equity market.
See Chart 8:
BoJ leads ECB by 15 years. ECB Lead FED by 10 years
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/policy%20rates.jpg?itok=7KMlU248
MONETARY TIGHTENING
The V-shape economy recovery since Q1’20 (Chart 9) & the inflation of asset prices, housing prices, commodity prices, consumer prices, is causing a very slow & protracted turn in monetary policy; for example, in 2021 there have been 41 rate hikes and 11 cuts (c/o 5 rate hikes & 95 cuts in 2020); the most important central bank in the world, the Fed, has thus far remained steadfastly against a tightening of monetary policy; but the inflation of asset prices, housing prices, commodity prices, consumer prices means the Fed’s liquidity tailwind is likely to weaken dramatically in coming quarters.
See Chart 9:
The FED and the Macro
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/the%20fed%20and%20the%20macro.jpg?itok=nJ2jySzj
INFLATION
inflation has soared in 2021 and it is highly unlikely to vanish as quickly as it appeared given the structural changes (War against Inequality) and pandemic unintended consequences (supply chain dislocation); in the past 6 months the annualized rate of CPI inflation was 7.8%, of core inflation was 6.8% (Chart 10), US house prices was 19.7% (May) and "pipeline inflation" PPI's are popping higher in US/China/Japan.
See Chart 10
The rise of Inflation
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/the%20rise%20of%20inflation.jpg?itok=DHCdG9X6
INFLATION VS DEFLATION
Investors are structurally positioned for deflation; as cyclical bears we think H2’21 will see outperformance of high quality defensives; but we continue to argue that longer-term the inflation theme will win and the US dollar will lose; note YTD in 2021 inflation assets are outperforming deflation assets (see Chart 11 for definitions) for the 1st time since 2016.
See Chart 11
Inflation vs Deflation
PEAK PROFITS
The BofA Global EPS model says global EPS peak was ≈ 40% in April (model driven by China FCI, Asia exports, global PMI, US yield curve); global EPS is projected to decelerate very sharply to 9% by November (Chart 12); this will be driven by inflation, supply bottlenecks, unwillingness of companies to increase inventories given Delta, peak US consumption.
See Chart:
Big Global EPS deceleration coming in next 3-4 months
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Bofa%20global%20eps%20model.jpg?itok=gKkCQ2wH
CHINA CASE:
EM stocks are approaching 20-year low versus S&P500 (Chart 13); big lows in EM are normally triggered by cathartic events (LTCM, 9/11, Lehman) but EM unambiguously where the secular value is, e.g. EM bonds cheapest relative to US high yield in 20 years; China has been the lead indicator for the virus, the lockdown, the reopening, the tech boom, the tapering, the tightening; China HY spreads have risen sharply to 1277bps, as investors fret about a “credit event” in China.
See Chart 13:
EM stocks vs S&P500: EM stocks approaching 20 year low vs S&P500
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/EM%20stocks%20vs%20SPX.jpg?itok=kdNy3_AR
CREDIT
Credit leads stocks and financial repression continues to keep spreads low (excluding China); BUt note the relative underperformance of HY bonds vs IG bonds, not a good leading indicator for stocks (Chart 14).
See Chart 14:
HY versus HG: Bonds & Global Equity
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/HY%20versus%20HG%20bonds.jpg?itok=J-WKam8Y
Read the full article at:
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bear-case-12-charts-darkness
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"IT FEELS AS IF NOBODY KNOWS ANYTHING": A "MYSTERY" MARKET MELTUP
"The absolutely impossible is literally commonplace now.” Hint: it's the Central Banks, stupid!
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WHAT DOES IT COST TO RUN BIG BUSINESS?
How much does it cost to run one of America’s largest corporations? For household names like Apple, Costco and Walmart, well over $100 billion each year.
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HOW THE FED IS ENABLING CONGRESS'S TRILLION-DOLLAR DEFICITS
When the central bank is buying up trillions in government debt, the amount of debt out in the larger marketplace is reduced. This means interest rates don't have to rise to attract enough buyers. The politicians remain happy
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DOVISH POWELL SPARKS "MOST PAINFUL" MELTUP TO 52ND RECORD HIGH IN 2021
Today was the 52nd all-time high for the S&P500 in 2021.
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"NOTHING HAS CHANGED" - WHITE HOUSE FLIP-FLOPS AGAIN ON TIMELINE FOR BOOSTER JABS
"For people watching at home, for you all who are reporting out this, nothing has changed about the eight-month timeline as it relates to the boosters," Psaki said Friday.
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Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption.
BIDEN WARNS ANOTHER KABUL AIRPORT ATTACK "HIGHLY LIKELY IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS"
“They have lost some capability to plan and conduct missions... the threat stream is still active... and the strike doesn’t get us in the clear."
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After many ups & downs, we can’t trust Biden. This could be another false flag
US FORCES BEGIN LEAVING KABUL AIRPORT AMID FINAL STAGES OF AFGHANISTAN WITHDRAWAL
It's official: US forces have initiated the final pullout.
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READ THIS!
ESCOBAR: 'FOREVER WAR' BENEFITING AFGHANS? FOLLOW THE MONEY
By Pepe Escobar via The Asia Times,
With the fall of Kabul, it’s becoming clear that financial soft power tactics may be even more deadly than a NATO occupation.
After 20 years and a staggering $2.23 trillion spent in a “forever war” persistently spun as promoting democracy and benefiting the “Afghan people,” it’s legitimate to ask what the Empire of Chaos has to show for it.
The numbers are dire. Afghanistan remains the world’s seventh poorest nation: 47 percent of the population lives below the poverty line, according to the Asian Development Bank. No less than 75 percent of the — dissolved — Kabul government’s budget was coming from international aid. According to the World Bank, that aid was responsible for the turnover of 43 percent of the economy — one that was mired in massive government corruption.
Washington has frozen $9.5 billion in Afghan Central Bank reserves and the International Monetary Fund has canceled its lending to Afghanistan, including $460 million that’s part of a Covid-19 relief program.
These dollars pay for government salaries and imports. Their absence will lead to the “Afghan people” hurting even more, a direct consequence of inevitable currency depreciation, rising food prices and inflation.
A corollary to this economic tragedy is a classic “take the money and run” caper: Former President Ashraf Ghani fled the country after allegedly packing four cars with $169 million in cash, and leaving $5 million on the tarmac of Kabul airport.
What Makes the Taliban Run
The Taliban have been operating outside of the Western banking system for two decades now. The bulk of their income comes from transit tax on trade routes (for instance, from Iran) and fuel levies. Profits from opium and heroin exports (domestic consumption not permitted) reportedly account for less than 10 percent of their income.
In countless villages across the deep Afghan countryside, the economy revolves around petty cash transactions and barter.
I received a copy of a high-level Pakistani academia-intelligence paper examining the challenges facing the new Afghan government.
The paper notes that “the standard route of development to be followed will be very pro-people. Taliban’s Islam is socialist. It has an aversion towards wealth being accumulated in fewer hands” — and, crucially, also an aversion to usury.
IMF-NATO AS BROTHERS IN ARMS
I asked Michael Hudson, an economics professor at the University of Missouri Kansas City and Peking University, how he would recommend the new government to act. He answered, “For one thing, embarrass the hell out of the IMF for acting as an arm of NATO.”
So, this may be going the Venezuela way – with the IMF not “recognizing” a new government for months and even years. And on the seizure of Afghan gold by the New York Fed – actually a collection of private banks – we see echoes of the looting of Libya’s and seizure of Venezuela’s gold.
Yet the most concise assessment may have come from Julian Assange himself:
“The goal is to use Afghanistan to wash money out of the tax bases of the U.S. and Europe through Afghanistan and back into the hands of a transnational security elite. The goal is an endless war, not a successful war.”
The “forever war” may have been a disaster for the bombed, invaded and impoverished “Afghan people,” but it was an unmitigated success for what Ray McGovern so memorably defines as the MICIMATT (Military-Industrial-Counter-Intelligence-Media-Academia-Think Tank) complex.
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escobar-forever-war-benefiting-afghans-follow-money
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OBAMA DEFENSE SECRETARY ALREADY CALLING FOR FRESH MILITARY OCCUPATION OF AFGHANISTAN
"We can’t leave the war on terrorism..."
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Newly sworn-in New York Gov. Kathy Hochul is wasting no time taking sides in the school mask wars. Even before taking the top job, she told NBC’s “Today” that she intends to mandate masks for all public school students in
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialist, D rest in limbo
KABUL ATTACK BIDEN'S "WORST NIGHTMARE", HE'LL "HAVE TO GO BACK IN" - SAYS OBAMA'S CIA DIRECTOR
"We’re going to have to go back in to get ISIS," Panetta said.
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ISRAEL TO "ACCELERATE" COVERT ACTION AGAINST IRAN, BLACK BUDGET "EARMARKED": IDF CHIEF
"the recently approved defense budget is earmarked for that."
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RUSSIA ANNOUNCES PLAN TO "ROUTINELY DEPLOY" HYPERSONIC MISSILES ON WARSHIPS
Pentagon weeks ago warned that US "current terrestrial and space-based sensor architecture may not be sufficient to detect and track these hypersonic missiles."
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PENTAGON CLAIMS ONLY ONE EXPLOSION OCCURRED DURING KABUL AIRPORT ATTACK AS DEATH TOLL HITS 170
Army Major General William Taylor explained that "very dynamic events" like those on Thursday often lead to some misinformation being reported.
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TALIBAN FIGHTERS REPORTEDLY SEIZE MILITARY SIDE OF KABUL AIRPORT USING AMERICAN WEAPONS
"we come down to the final hours of the operation, there will also be people who haven't got through, people who might qualify (for resettlement). What I say to them is that we will shift heaven and earth to help them, we will do whatever
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JAPAN PLANS TO BUILD UNDERSEA TUNNEL TO HELP DUMP RADIOACTIVE WATER FROM FUKUSHIMA INTO THE PACIFIC
The cleanup from the disaster at Fukushima-
Daiichi is still a long way from finished...
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SPUTNIK NEWS : https://sputniknews.com/
- UK Officials: They Would Clear Kabul Airlift, Report Says
- US Operation Against Daesh in Iraq Not Over Yet, Blinken Says
- Arrest, Death or Victory? Bolsonaro Suggests Three Options For His Future
-ISR-IDF Says Its Fighter Jets Attacked Hamas Compound in Gaza Strip Following Clashes at Border
- Afghan Activist Calls Biden’s Policy ‘Reckless,’ Says Fled Pres Ghani Is 'Nation Traitor'
- House GOP Lambasts Biden Over Kabul Bombings
- Protesters in Washington Demand Action Over Humanitarian Crisis in Afghanistan
- How US Policy Toward Iran and Afghanistan Could Influence Israel
- US Intelligence Releases Report on COVID-19 Origins, Says Outbreak Was Natural, Not a Bioweapon
- Boris Johnson Vows to 'Shift Heaven and Earth' to Get More People Out of Afghanistan
- China Blasts US Intel Report on COVID-19 Origins, Says It's 'Not Scientifically Credible'
- US Blue-Chip, Tech Stocks Hit Record Highs as Fed Evades Stimulus Taper Timetable
- ISIS-K Planner Hit in US Drone Strike in Eastern Afghanistan
- Ex-Pentagon Chief Predicts New Afghan War Against Al-Qaeda
- Senior Pentagon Official Reportedly Holds Talks With Chinese Military For First Time of Biden Tenure
- What is the ‘Shadow Docket’ the US Supreme Court Uses to Fast-Forward Through Cases?
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Aug 28 2021 PART 2 ND SIT EC y POL SPANISH ++
REBELION
- Olimpiadas, ¿negocio o mecanismo de control? Marcelo Colussi
US-racismo: Vigilancia, rabia blanca y el fin de la empatía J G. Russell
US: Probabilid d otra pandemia es “mayor que nunca” María Lizcano
US: transnacional del narcotráfico https://youtu.be/E606II_CRY8
Haití – RD: EL MURO Y LA ESPERANZA QUE AÚN VIVE Lilliam Oviedo
ALC: 29J Y LO QUE PUEDE PERDER GUATEMALA Kajkoj Máximo
Uruguay: De entreguismo, independencia y corrupción Nicolás C
Cuentos de oficio: MARTINA Y MARTÍN Unai Sordo
AFGAN: Fundador de Blackwater hace negocio de la desesperación
BRA: BOLSONARO E INGOBERNABILIDAD DE BRASIL Emir Sader
BRA: Steve Bannon: próxim campo de batalla d la ultraderech AV
Opin: NECESIDAD DE LA TEORÍA Iñaki Gil
Opin: EL LEGADO INSUMISO DE SIMÓN BOLÍVAR Homar Garcés
Cuba: VACUNAS CUBANAS: ALENTADORA EFECTIVIDAD Á Guerra
Cuba: Defensa inclaudicable del socialismo cubano Roberto R
Ecuad: Monseñor L Proaño, fermento del nuevo Ecuador P Pierre
MX-escuelas: UN RETORNO CONTROVERTIDO C León Campos
US: De Kabul al río Bravo, US crea crisis de refugiad Amy - Denis
Israel: UNA SOCIEDAD DE HIPÓCRITAS (Parte I) P Jofré Leal
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RT EN ESPAÑOL
Biden: nuevo ataque al aeropuerto de Kabul es "muy probable" en 24-36 horas https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/402207-biden-nuevo-ataque-aeropuerto-kabul-probable
Esperamos no sea el mismo tipo de ataque US que distorsionó la prensa mundial
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Embajada US en Kabul insta a sus ciudad a abandonar inmediatam el aeropuerto https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/402217-embajada-eeuu-kabul-insta-ciudadanos
Si se quedan en Afgan es porque no hay amenaza creíble. Al contrar es posib otro US at
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El huracán Nora toca tierra en México: publican foto y videos de cómo azota al país https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/402219-tormenta-tropical-nora-toca-tierra
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China tacha a US d ser el "mayor destructor de la paz y la estabilidad" mundial https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/402188-buques-guerra-eeuu-entran-estrecho
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Cesan a infante de Marina US por video instando asumir responsab por errores en Afganistán https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/402173-marina-eeuu-cesado-cargo-exigir-responsabilidad
Stuart Scheller, teniente coronel del Cuerpo de Marines de US fue cesado horas después del ‘atentado suicida’ frente al aeropuerto internacional de Kabul que mato más de 80 civiles afganos, y a ‘13 soldados estadounidenses’, aun anónimos. Quienes son realmente los terroristas en Afganistan? Solo los talibanes, como dice la ONU? La historieta de la ONU la aceptaron los RU para impedir ingreso de asilados AFG a su país, aunque es cierto que RU esta ahora contra el terrorismo del US en Afganistán.
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CROSS TALK https://www.rt.com/shows/crosstalk/
BOND BUBBLES & PRICE TRANSPARENCY
Max and Stacy look at the never-ending bond bubble and those who continue to bet against it. They also look at the ordinary Americans able to negotiate prices similar to or better than multibillion-dollar health insurance giants for medical procedures. In the second half, Max chats to Gerald Celente in Phoenix, Arizona about the end of yet another empire in Afghanistan.
Source: https://www.rt.com/shows/keiser-report/533235-health-insurance-price-negotiation/
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO allies
- The Ludicrous Costs of the War in Afghanistan Revealed in New Documents, Testimonies By Alan MacLeod,
- Video: Love Your Servitude – Aldous Huxley & George Orwell By After Skool,
NO MORE NEW NEWS
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