Aug 17 2021 ND SIT EC y POL Part 1
ND denounce-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
STOCKS DUMP, DOLLAR JUMPS AS SELF-SUSTAINING RECOVERY NARRATIVE COLLAPSES
by Tyler Durden
...gimme more stimmies!!
Ugly retail sales, industrial production strong, homebuilder sentiment slammed, and the Kiwis locking down over one (yes one) COVID case... All added up to 'growth scare' time as US macro data is declining/disappointing at the fastest rate since March 2020..
See Chart:
US Macro Surprise Index
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmCE1D.jpg?itok=1BxBgYQm
After yesterday afternoon's ridiculous gamma-squeezed meltup in stocks, today was rewind day as all the major indices lost their gains and fell below yesterday's lows, led by Small Caps. Of course, as is the way of the new normal, around 1300ET everything was suddenly panic-bid again...
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2021-08-17_12-59-28.jpg?itok=EseQDlgu
Small Caps tumbled down towards their 200DMA and bounced. Nasdaq fell back to its 50DMA and bounced...
See Charts:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2021-08-17_12-18-23.jpg?itok=zIaa6l1T
Overall, the last two days have seen "back to the old normal" stocks hammered relative to "hunker down" stocks.
See Chart:
‘Get out of the party’ stocks vs ‘stay home in fear’ stocks
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmB8D0.jpg?itok=zrxBiwU1
Credit markets are not buying whatever stocks have been smoking...
See Chart:
S& P vs HYG
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm20D0_0.jpg?itok=xrJV7umA
The dollar soared today, scrambling up to last week's highs and running stops...
See Chart:
Bloomberg Dollar Index
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm1338.jpg?itok=w4ULvqVf
Gold was down today, but only modestly given the big jump in the dollar...
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2021-08-17_12-23-54.jpg?itok=qpejbxCV
WTI fell back to a $66 handle again today ahead of tonight's API inventory data...
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2021-08-17_12-25-00.jpg?itok=byE2oqUz
Finally, VIX started to catch up to VVIX's warnings this week..
See Chart
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmA75B.jpg?itok=Yc4bnmk8
And don't forget THE DEBT CEILING IS STARTING TO STRESS THE BILL CURVE.
See Chart:
T Bill Yield Spread
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm3FE5_0.jpg?itok=TYY1i3KZ
'probably nothing' NEW
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US ECONOMIC GROWTH SUDDENLY COLLAPSES, AS EVEN GOLDMAN SAYS "NOT GOOD"
by Tyler Durden
"The softening in nominal spending leads us to track only 1.5% qoq saar for real consumer spending in 3Q. This follows 2Q real consumption tracking of 12.3%"
UMich chief economist Richard Curtin observed that over the past half century the UMIch survey "Sentiment Index has only recorded larger losses in six other surveys, all connected to sudden negative changes in the economy," today's dismal retail sales data was the straw that finally broke the back of any last trace of positive sentiment.
And shortly after we published the summary of the latest Bank of America Fund Manager Survey which showed that overall sentiment had collapsed with expectations for growth, profits and inflation all plunging in August...
See Chart:
FMS economic expectations have fallen drastically since March
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/fms%20chart%202_0.jpg?itok=AGpFptJk
Goldman became the latest bank to chime in with its brutal assessment of the current situation summarized by strategist Chris Hussey's midday market intel note titled simply "not good." He explains why:
Retail sales declined 1.1% in July, more than expected, even as core retail sales were revised up for May and June. Notably, the decline comes without the government-imposed mobility restrictions and shutdowns that we witnessed earlier in the pandemic, suggesting that US consumers were electing to stay home and spend less — consistent with the sharp fall last week in the UMichigan Consumer Sentiment Survey. And a look into the individual categories reveals the sharpest deceleration in consumer discretionary items like electronics & appliances, as well as non-store retailers, also perhaps a reflection of some unemployment benefits expiring. A quick look at earnings today from consumer bellwethers WMT and HD also suggest consumer behavior is moderating.
On the supply side of the equation, Industrial Production rose in July, largely driven by an 11.2% increase in motor vehicle and parts manufacturing, while business inventories also increased. Builder sentiment also declined, hitting the lowest level since July 2020, driven by the current sales and prospective sales components, although future sales expectations remains unchanged.
Putting it all together, the Goldman strategist writes that "the combination of lower-than-expected retail sales and auto production in July, and given an increasingly likely drag on services consumption from the Delta variant, our economists are will likely revise our second-half growth assumptions even as we still do not expect material economic impact from the Delta variant in the US amidst abundant vaccine supply and relatively permissive COVID policies."
But more importantly, unlike Goldman, BofA did not need to wait days to revise its GDP forecast, and instead Meyer wrote that "after adjusting for higher prices (PCE deflator of 4.4% qoq saar), the softening in nominal spending leads us to track only 1.5% qoq saar for real consumer spending in 3Q. This follows 2Q real consumption tracking of 12.3%."
Plugging that number into the bigger GDP model, and BofA now finds that "the economy is running at a slower pace in 3Q," and currently tracking just 4.5% following the retail sales report, down from the bank's official forecast of 7% qoq saa, which is about to come down significantly.
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bofa%20GDP.jpg?itok=-KOx7Ild
In short: Biden better find a way to pass another major stimmy, or else the US consumer is toast.
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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-economic-growth-suddenly-collapses-even-goldman-says-not-good
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OIL EXTENDS LONGEST LOSING STREAK SINCE MARCH AFTER DISAPPOINTINGLY SMALL CRUDE DRAW
“Poor data coming out of China is ground zero for reignited global concern surrounding Covid-19,”
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US ECONOMIC COLLAPSE in BRIEF NOTES:
DEBT CEILING DOUBTS SOAR AS 'KINK' IN T-BILL CURVE BUILDS
"In recognition of this risk, T-bills maturing mid-October to mid-November have started to cheapen relative to neighboring issues."
Here is the evolution of the spread between October and November T-Bill yields...
See Chart:
T-Bill Yield Spread (Oct-Nov)
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm3FE5.jpg?itok=pPMPp1Jj
Fed’s reverse repos "may make some investors more willing to avoid bills with maturities at risk."
Investors remains significant uncertainty however as to the date at which the money runs dry - which explains the breadth of the kink in the first chart above.
However, they do note that their model "shows the U.S. Federal government running out of debt capacity and cash in early November, leading to a technical default on some debt."
See Chart:
US Treasury General Account at the FED:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm1503.jpg?itok=443pX4O0
Press secretary Jen Psaki noted last week that: “Raising the debt limit has been done 80 times … in a bipartisan fashion. Ninety-nine percent of [the debt] existed before President Biden took office.”
See Chart:
TH INCREDIBLY SPAKING US NATIONAL DEBT
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/US-Gross-National-Debt-2021-08-12.png?itok=1CIOouaP
She added that Republicans would also face pressure from “former leaders from both sides of the aisle [who] are eager to see Congress raise the debt limit and not face default.”
We shall see...
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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/debt-ceiling-doubts-soar-kink-t-bill-curve-builds
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Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption.
BIDEN ADMIN TO EXTEND TRAVEL MASK MANDATE TO JAN 2022
'Just another five months to beat the virus'?
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis, D rest in limbo
Nasty Imperialist robbery
US TREASURY FREEZES BILLIONS IN AFGHAN RESERVES, DEPRIVING TALIBAN OF CASH
"The decision was made by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and officials in Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control..."
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TALIBAN WARNING: US MUST FULLY WITHDRAW AMERICAN TROOPS BY SEPT. 11
It’s not clear what will happen if American forces
remain in Afghanistan after Sept. 11.
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Easy to guest: they will bring beautiful flowers with smell to ‘popi’ & with a tack saying: this missile loves you to death and bye bye stupid Americans: YOU DESEVE INFERNO! They are very polite eh. They are in love with Americans. Love is Love. No body understand this type of love, only people from Afganistan.
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DOES THE US PILFER Afghanistan's Trillions In Minerals or we were saints to be pray?
"Afghanistan is plagued with the curse of plenty. They have, we think, upwards of $3T worth of minerals..."
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Las moscas no van a la mierda a rezar, los magnates del US tampoco.
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Captured by fear and abandon she decide to accept suicide. What if Taliban pardon her
"I'M SITTING HERE WAITING" FOR THE TALIBAN TO KILL ME, FIRST FEMALE MAYOR IN AFGHANISTAN SAYS
27 year old mayor of Maidan Sharh, Zarifa Ghafari, says she hasn't tried to leave the country because SHE HAS "NOWHERE TO GO".
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Presid Biden: UN-FREEZ THE BILLIONS IN AFGHAN RESERVES & US can get this lady back & Free. IT is humanism vs nasty business that is at stake. Does US has ethical morals for this exchange. I don’t think so, but it is possible. IF happens she will be my heroine & my youngest daughter & member of my family I will give her my house (food included) until she get a new one. She deserved.
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SPUTNIK NEWS : https://sputniknews.com/
-Live Updates: Biden, Johnson to Hold Virtual G7 Meeting Next Week to Discuss Strategy on Afghanistan
- US Congressman Says China Will Move in Afghanistan to Mine Rare Earth Minerals
- US Transportation Security Agency Extends Federal Mask Mandate to January 18
- Biden Admitted US War in Afghanistan Isn’t Really Ending - It’s Becoming a Somalia-Like Drone War
- National Assembly of Venezuela Approves Memorandum Signed by Authorities, Opposition
- Former US President Bush Expresses ‘Deep Sadness’ Over Taliban Takeover
- Biden’s Approval Ratings Hit Lowest of Presidency Following Taliban Takeover
- One Syrian Soldier Dead, 3 Injured as Militants Shell Aleppo, Hama
- Lavrov Says Counterproductive to Impose Any Form of Governance on Afghan
- After Afghanistan Failure, US Watchdog Doubts Possibility of Nation-Building Success
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