Aug 2 2021 ND SIT EC y POL Part 1
ND denounce-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
CORPORATE MARGINS SET TO TUMBLE AS COMPANIES FREAK OUT ABOUT SURGE IN "BAD INFLATION"
by Tyler Durden
"we are starting to see the good inflation environment turning into a bad inflation environment with many companies citing accelerating cost inflation, particularly around wages."
First the good news: according to Bank of America's earnings tracker, Q2 earnings season is already one of the strongest in history (as one would expect following trillions in fiscal and monetary stimulus and comping off the catastrophic Q2 of 2020 when covid shut down the economy), and following the busiest earnings week of 2Q, 296 S&P 500 companies (76% of index earnings) have reported. 2Q EPS is now tracking a 13% beat or $51.12, topping BofA's estimate of $50 or an 11% beat; and far above the historical average since the start of earnings season
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/7%25%20beat%20so%20far.jpg?itok=U5wwUdKz
To avoid the skewed 2020 data and doing a two-year lookback, 2Q is now expected to be +83% YoY or +24% vs. 2Q19, vs. last quarter’s 25% 2-yr growth rate. Financials, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary led the EPS beat, while revenues are also coming in red hot and tracking a 3% beat, led by Energy.
See Charts:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Q2%20earnings%20tracking%20BofA.jpg?itok=YsWTd22t
More importantly, the proportion of beats also remained strong: 83%/85%/74% of companies beat on EPS/sales/both, representing the best proportion of beats in history (since 2011)
See Charts:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bofa%20consensus%20q2%202021.jpg?itok=V3iLSA99
What is more surprising is that in a quarter when many predicted margins would be hit by surging input costs, not only was that not the case but companies once again posted skyhigh margins, with 2Q net margins (ex-Financials) jumping to a new high at 13.0%, topping last quarter’s 12.5%. This was consistent with BofA's Corporate Misery Indicator, which rose to a record high (“least miserable”) in 2Q, indicating it was among the most favorable macro environment for corporate margins in history since 1978!
See Charts
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Q2%20net%20margins%20bofa.jpg?itok=11Wc0IqY
How is this possible in a time when numerous commodity prices have hit never before seen levels? Simple: companies have experienced virtually no pushback to rising prices as most Americans can easily absorb the rampant inflation. Indeed, as IHS Markit Chief Economist Chris Williamson commented in today this is "perhaps the strongest sellers’ market that we’ve seen since the survey began in 2007, with suppliers hiking prices for inputs into factories at the steepest rate yet recorded and manufacturers able to raise their selling prices to an unprecedented extent, as both suppliers and producers often encounter little price resistance from customers." It remains to be seen just how long such a "seller's market" will be the norm, although we expect it to reverse quite painfully once government handouts end.
In any case, that was the good news: now the bad and that was summarized best by BofA's Savita Subramanian who wrote that "we are starting to see the good inflation environment turning into a bad inflation environment with many companies citing accelerating cost inflation, particularly around wages."
On a YoY basis, inflation mentions rose nearly 1100% YoY, outpacing the 900% increase we saw last quarter.
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/inflation%20mentions%202_0.jpg?itok=M4S7DxRQ
Notably, labor-related mentions - i.e., discussion of rising wages - rose the most among inflation categories BofA tracks in 2Q, up 155% YoY. This compares to last quarter when labor-related mentions rose the least (+12% YoY), pointing to soaring wage pressure, and is why BofA remains cautious on labor-intensive Consumer Discretionary and Industrials.
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/supply%20chain%20bofa_0.jpg?itok=DYo4LFzk
Continue reading and see more charts at:
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HOW TO SPOT THE START OF THE TAPERING CYCLE
The question Fed Chair Powell is asked time and time again and the one he cannot seem to answer is “what does transitory mean and when will inflation point to the beginning of tapering?” The answer is likely not about inflation at all
Take a look at the spread between the labor participation rate and job openings (JOLTS). It’s nowhere near pre-pandemic levels. Looking back at where labor and job openings were when the Fed announced tapering in December 2013 serves as a decent indication of what this relationship needs to look like before tapering is a more convincing option for the central bank.
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/VC%201.jpg?itok=52iaPJN4
The question Fed Chair Powell is asked time and time again and the one he cannot seem to answer is “what does transitory mean and when will inflation point to the beginning of tapering?” The answer is likely not about inflation at all, but jobs. Remember, inflation is transitory for the Fed, or is it?
Take a look at another metric of jobs returning to pre-pandemic levels: payroll gains and jobless claims. It seems we’re already there and the Fed is indeed behind the curve. It’s likely to fall even further behind once inflation begins to percolate.
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/vc2_0.jpg?itok=XUkzHGrt
That means inflation and inflationary expectations are like a spring wound tight. It is only when you reach the tipping point that it unravels. For the Fed, it appears that time is when labor participation increases sufficiently to fill current job openings.
We may be closer than we think to that moment. School re-openings and the end of extended jobs benefits is right around the corner. That should produce an increase in the labor participation rate and result in fewer job openings. That’s when the first aforementioned metric may come into play.
For equity investors, it’s not a time to panic. The 2013 taper tantrum didn’t produce an extended selloff but it was a different story for bond traders. As the participation/job opening gap closes, the canary in the coal mine may stop singing. That’ll likely be a sign that tapering is at hand and signal the beginning of a substantial bond correction.
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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/how-spot-start-tapering-cycle
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Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption.
EVICTIONS START WITH NANCY PELOSI & THE HOUSE ON A 7-WEEK BREAK
The PAIN STARTS IN THE SOUTH. Laws and procedures to evict tenants in some Southern states are among the MOST LANDLORD-FRIENDLY in U.S..
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis, D rest in limbo
BEIJING QUIETLY ISSUED 'BUY CHINESE' PROCUREMENT GUIDELINES FOR HOSPITALS & STATE COMPANIES
US China Business Council has lately complained of NEW PROBLEMS IN COMPETING FOR AND WINNING BIDS THERE...
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IMF CREATES RECORD $650 BILLION SLUSH FUND FOR PANDEMIC RELIEF
The creation of the reserve assets -- known as special drawing rights -- is the first since the $250 billion issued just after GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS IN 2009...
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BIDEN ADMIN IS BOOTING 24 MORE RUSSIAN DIPLOMATS BY SEPTEMBER
Russian ambassador urges "common sense to prevail".
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DROUGHT, FROST PLUNGE BRAZIL'S SECOND CORN YIELDS TO DECADE LOW
"Failure of the 2021 corn crop..."
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How to vitalized immunes Syst is the point. Vacs don’t prevent nor cure: Why t take it
THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION GOES TO WAR WITH THE "NON-VACS"
Is COERCION the answer?
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SPUTNIK NEWS : https://sputniknews.com/
-Blinken Warns Iran 'There Will Be a Collective Response' After Deadly Mercer Street Attack
- Russian Diplomats' Working Conditions and US Continue to Deteriorate
- Argentina Begins Vaccination of Teenagers Against COVID-19
- Bibi Says Biden Could Ruin Israeli Operat Against Iran by Leaking Info to US Media
- ‘Ownership is Ours’: Sheikh Jarrah Families Refuse ‘Protected Tenants’ Deal by Israeli Supreme Court
- US Treasury Begins Taking 'Extraordinary Measures' After Debt Limit Reinstated
- Researchers Discover Microbes That Could Help Fix DNA Mutations
- Sullivan, Incoming Israeli Security Adviser Discuss Iran 'Threat'
- US, Israeli Military Leaders Discuss Regional Events After Mercer Incident
- CDC Extends Rule Allowing Immediate Expulsion of Migrants on US Border Due to COVID-19
- With Just 12% of US Rental Aid Distributed, Tenants Fear ‘Tsunami of Evictions’ As Moratorium Ends
- Biden Administration Urges Rest of Government to Extend Eviction Moratorium
- Third Known Police Officer That Responded to Capitol Riot Committed Suicide
- US Navy Would Welcome Opportunity to Engage With Russian Counterparts
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Aug 2 2021 PART 2 ND SIT EC y POL SPANISH ++
REBELION
Mov Soc y ONG: Agst boicot a Cumbre de alimenta d sept próx S F
ECOL-S: LOS “VICIOS” DEL ECOLOGISMO Alfredo Apilánez
Econ : América Latina y el mandato exportador FC y M S
Sociol: Buen Vivir para superar límites del desarrollo Thea R
COL: “La respuesta del Estado a protesta social es genocidio” G B
ALC: Am-Lat podría ser líder mund d ciencia abierta no comercia FB
"Sin remedio": UN LIBRO PREMONITORIO Alberto Pinzón
Chile: Convención Constitucional y la voz del amo A Lavquén
COL: “Capturaron adolecentes, los torturan y los amputaron” LA M
Opin: Surgimiento y decadencia de centros de poder Marcos Silva
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RT EN ESPAÑOL
Hay presión creciente del Congre y la prensa para que Castillo destituya sus ministros https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/399523-crecientes-presiones-castillo-destituir-gabinete-peru
Castillo tiene que movilizar los Consejos Municipales para destituir congresistas de la derecha oligárquica que no lograron el 50% +1 del electorado en cada región y nominar a nuevos en voto directo mediante asambleas Municipales. Y pedir además cárcel para Keiko por estar envuelta en los latrocinios y crímenes de su padre. Castillo tiene que desmontar el frente oligárquico antes de llamar a la Asamblea Constituyente que prometió. La lucha por el poder político recién empieza y Castillo y su frente tienen que actuar con firmeza y con pueblo movilizado en cada región.
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Global Times acusa a EE.UU. de ser "el mayor propagador de la pandemia" https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/399587-diario-chino-acusa-eeuu-propagar-pandemia
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Tribunal Electoral de BRA pide a Corte Suprema invest a Bolsonaro por declar contra el sistema de votac https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/399617-tribunal-electoral-brasil-investigar-bolsonaro
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Castillo como parte del Grupo Lima esta contra sanciones US a VEN. Hay cambio d posic https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/399590-peru-nuevo-gobierno-cambio-politica-venezuela
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Se suicida 3er policía encargado de proteger el Capitolio de EE.UU. durante el asalto https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/399596-suicida-tercer-policia-irrupcion-capitolio
Los policías no tenían que disparar a los manifestantes que ingresaron por la ventanas, solo tenían que capturarlos, no asesinarlos a sangre fría. Están siendo investigados y por eso se suicidan. La brutalidad policial causo muchas muertes de inocent n el US
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Amy Goodman’ team
- Dr. Rupa Marya & Raj Patel on Deep Medicine & How Capitalism Primes Us for Sickness
- “Give Us the Moratorium”: Rep. Cori Bush Sleeps on Capitol Steps Demanding Eviction Protection
- “The Ants and the Grasshopper”: Raj Patel’s New Film Aims to “Decolonize” Climate & Health Solutions
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