Nueva Democracia: Aug 16 2021 ND SIT EC y POL Part 1

Aug 16 2021 ND SIT EC y POL Part 1

ND denounce-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco

ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS

Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

Autos: the industry most prosperous years ago is now in sales crisis

BRACE FOR A BIG MISS IN JULY RETAIL SALES

by Tyler Durden

The actual print may be the worst in the past 12 months.

Just a quick note ahead of tomorrow's retail sales data, which consensus expects to come in at -0.2% headline at +0.2% ex autos, but which will be a big miss.

Last week we pointed out that BofA's latest internal debit and credit card spending data showed a sharp slowdown in the month of July (whether due to covid fears, new restrictions, burning through savings, an outsized slowdown in good spending, etc), with total BofA card spending down 1.3% on a month-over-month seasonally adjusted basis, the biggest drop in the past 12 months..

See Chart:

Retail sales ex-auto

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/retail%20sales%20ex%20auto%20aug%202021_0.jpg?itok=PMXthrww

... and down almost double for retail sales ex-autos, which BofA founds shrank by 2.4% mom sa.

See Charts:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/retail%20ex%20auto%20bofa_0.jpg?itok=AjTNzEBk

Today, when looking at its own card spending data, JPM also poured cold water on any hope of sustained economic activity in the US, writing that there is concern that the delta wave is depressing sentiment. On the heels of a drop in global business and consumer confidence in July, JPM eyed the University of Michigan survey which reported an unexpected plunge in US consumer confidence last Friday with the headline reading plummeting from 81.2 to 70.2 in August, refuting the far more optimstic Conference Board survey result.

See Chart:

Michigan Consumer indicators

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/sentiment%20spread.jpg?itok=qTVI8pIJ

This decline, JPM concludes, "aligns with recent indications that the Delta variant may be suppressing consumer spending and we look for a well below consensus 1.5% m/m drop in tomorrow’s July retail sales report."

See Chart:

US Chase card spending

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/car%20spending%20jpm.jpg?itok=pKgj-ehY

And so between two of the biggest issuers of debit and credit cards, both of whom are seeing a sharp slowdown in spending - as we observed last week in "A Sudden Negative Change In The Economy": Consumer Spending Slides As Majority Now Expect A New Slowdown - we can conclude that tomorrow's retail sales number will be a big miss to expectations...

See Chart:

BOFA forecast for July Census Bureau Retail sales

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/retail%20sales%20comp%20aug%202021_1.jpg?itok=2S_JXY33

which of course should send stocks quickly to new all time highs.

….

SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/brace-big-miss-july-retail-sales

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Inflation slows?

SHIPPING CONTAINER FREIGHT RATE INFLATION SLOWS, BUT...

...upward momentum in prices has been waning since mid-July.

With international container shipping rates blowing out like never before amid chaos in Transpacific shipping due to massive port backlogs and production delays in China, new data suggests the rate of increase in container shipping prices is slowing, according to Bloomberg.

The five-week average increase in the WCI Composite Container Freight Benchmark Rate shows the upward momentum in prices has been waning since mid-July. The rate is about 1.4 percentage points, a considerable change from early July when it was around five percentage points.

See Chart:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2021-08-15_18-12-36.png?itok=2s7xbgFm

Bloomberg points out, "market is also anticipating inflation to be higher in the near term, but expect it to be transitory, buying into the Fed's narrative."

Looking at inflation swaps and the U.S. breakeven curve, rate traders expect lower inflation down the road. The chart below shows inflation swaps at 3% in a year, but then slumping back to 2% the years after.

See Chart:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2021-08-15_18-37-22.png?itok=wuGNAcms

With container rates slowing today, the question is whether prices have peaked or if the next leg up is imminent?

That would be good news for the American consumer, whose confidence and buying attitudes just collapsed, but Goldman Sachs is pouring cold water in this hope, explicitly warning that "port closures or stricter control measures at ports could also put further upward pressure on shipping costs, which are already very high."

….

SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/shipping-container-freight-rates-slow-amid-record-high-prices

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MISH: DON'T FALL FOR JOE BIDEN'S BIG LIE ON INFLATION

"These steps will enhance our productivity - raising wages without raising prices. That won’t increase inflation. It will take the pressure off of inflation,"

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THIS IS WHAT HEDGE FUNDS BOUGHT AND SOLD IN Q2: COMPLETE 13F SUMMARY

For once, the "smart money" was not caught off guard

by the resurgent covid pandemic

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US DOMESTIC POLITICS

Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption.

BIDEN BLAMES EVERYONE BUT HIMSELF FOR FAILURE IN AFGHANISTAN

He blamed Trump, the Afghan people, the ousted Afghan president...while in passing acknowledged the country's 'unanticipated' ultra-fast collapse.

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SNYDER: WE'RE RAPIDLY BECOMING A "1984 SOCIETY" & IT'S ONLY GOING TO GET WORSE

Are you a potential domestic terrorist? You may not think so, but the Department of Homeland Security may see things quite differently..

SEE A SLOGAN:

We have never seen anything quite like this before.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2021-08-16_6-37-24.jpg?itok=919DC0dr

….

SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/snyder-were-rapidly-becoming-1984-society-its-only-going-get-worse

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'A DAY THAT SHOULD LIVE IN INFAMY' - PETER SCHIFF: 50 YEARS AGO, NIXON SLAMS SHUT THE "GOLD WINDOW"

The dollar has lost more than 85% of its value since Nixon’s fateful decision

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