Aug 10 2021 ND SIT EC y POL Part 1
ND denounce-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
WTI SHRUGS AFTER SMALL CRUDE INVENTORY DRAW
by Tyler Durden
AFTER LAST WEEK'S SURPRISE BUILD, analysts correctly forecast a modest 816k barrel draw in crude stocks...
Helped by the passage a the trillion-dollar infrastructure bill, oil prices extended yesterday afternoon's rebound today (from a significantly sharp selloff last week blamed partly on fears the global spread of the delta variant of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 would dent energy demand).
"Crude prices are rebounding as the rout that stemmed from delta variant concerns has run its course," said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, in a note.
"The headlines for crude have been mostly constructive, but the primary driver has been the overall risk-on theme that stemmed from Senate's passing of the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure spending bill," Moya said.
Prices were also buoyed by comments from EIA that U.S. gasoline consumption is expected to average 8.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2021, up from 8 million bpd in 2020.
Still, the EIA said U.S. gasoline consumption will remain below 2019 levels through 2022 due to the proliferation of people working from home.
Investors will swing their attention to tonight's inventory data (and tomorrow's official data) for any confirmation that short-term demand fears are a thing of the past.
API
- Crude -816k (-600k exp)
- Cushing -413k
- Gasoline -1.114mm (-2.4mm exp)
- Distillates +673k (-600k exp)
After last week's surprise crude build, analysts hoped for a drop to reappear to confirm the recovery narrative and they were right with a modest 816k barrel drop in crude stocks...
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmFC5D.jpg?itok=P1PZpHKH
WTI hovered just below $68.50 ahead of the API print and did nothing after the small draw.
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2021-08-10_13-33-43.jpg?itok=j-GM8-k1
But the July WTI contract managed to close Monday above the July low at $66.41, marking that level as a "'line in the sand' for the oil market," said Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report, in a note.
"If support holds, which it likely will as long as the news flow regarding COVID does not continue to materially deteriorate, then WTI will remain rangebound between aforementioned support at $66 and resistance from July at $75 a barrel," he said.
….
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/wti-shrugs-after-small-crude-inventory-draw
----
----
BACK IN BALANCE FOR 10 MONTHS: "WHAT HAPPENS TO WAGES UNTIL THEN?"
by Tyler Durden
The Fed is saying we should withhold judgment until higher wage and price growth are firmly established, but to Harris and Bank of America that is just a matter of months, not years.
Friday’s blockbuster jobs which revealed that 943K jobs were added in July, and Monday’s job openings data according to which there were 1.4 million job openings than unemployed workers, confirmed several themes on the US labor market:
- In the near term, supply-side constraints remain strong and are holding back even bigger gains in jobs and GDP.
- The economy is on course to hit full employment early next year, causing a more sustained second period of supply constraints.
- These data do not yet reflect the escalation of COVID cases, so some slowing seems likely in the August and September data.
As BofA's chief economist Ethan Harris notes, Friday’s employment report checked all the boxes: faster-than-expected job growth, upward revisions to prior months, a much bigger-than-expected drop in the unemployment rate, a strong increase in average hourly earnings, and an uptick in the participation rate.
UBS chief economist Paul Donovan making the following caveat: "employment data is full of cautions. People are not spending in a seasonal pattern, so firms are not hiring in a seasonal pattern, so data is adjusting for a seasonality that does not exist." But setting this major caveat aside, the labor market remains impressive as the following observations from Harris attest:
- Demand for workers continues to grow much faster than supply, with a big gain in both payrolls and household employment and a modest pickup in labor supply.
- The underemployment rate plunged even more than the official unemployment rate, dropping from 9.8 to 9.2%. That is well below the 10.4% average rate going back to 1994.
- The labor market improvement was highly “inclusive”, with the unemployment rate falling faster for less educated workers, much faster for blacks (down 1.0%) and Hispanics (-0.8%) than for whites (-0.4%), and a bit faster for women (-0.6%) than for men (-0.5%).
As we discussed yesterday when we looked closer at the JOLTS data released yesterday morning, the job shortage—as of June— was even worse than expected.
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/jolts%20job%20openings%208.10.jpg?itok=ucEYSgKr
The Bloomberg consensus was expecting a small 161k increase in openings and instead the combined revisions and July increase were 864k. To put that into perspective:
- Job openings rose about as fast as employment in the month, suggesting that demand for workers grew twice as fast as supply.
- The job openings rate (openings divided by the sum of employment and openings) surged to a new record.
- The leisure and hospitality sector is in a class of its own, with job openings two times higher than normal. No wonder wages have risen almost 4% in the last three months and almost 10% in the past 12 months.
And, of course, as we first pointed out, there are now 1.4 million more job openings than unemployed, a level that has been surpassed just on a handful of occasions in on record.
See Charts:
As Harris puts it, "even prove-it-too-me Chair Powell must take some comfort from these numbers"; and shares some additional observations:
The Fed has been encouraging investors to focus on outcomes rather than forecasts when it comes to signposts in the economic recovery. However, you don’t have to rely on a fancy econometric model to be impressed by recent trends. Consider the current imbalance in the labor market. In February 2020, before the pandemic hit, there were about 7.5 million job openings in the US. As of June 2021 there were more than 10 million. That’s an average monthly increase of about 150k. Judging from surveys like the NFIB small business survey, openings probably rose again in July (ZH: they did to a new record high).
Another simple calculation is to extend recent trends in the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate has fallen 1.3% in the first seven months of this year, or at an average of about 0.2% per month. At this rate it will hit 4% by February or March of next year.
That said, even if the Fed were to take immediate action, Harris' concludes that it will clearly take a while to reverse this imbalance. For example, the economist says, "even if supply surges and starts growing 250k per month faster than labor demand, the market won’t be back in balance for 10 months." The question is happens to wages over this period, and an even more important question: what happens to inflation if indeed wage growth is here to stay? To be sure, the Fed is saying we should withhold judgment until higher wage and price growth are firmly established, but to Harris and Bank of America that is just a matter of months, not years.
….
----
----
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption.
THE PSYCHOLOGY OF SHAPING ANOTHER'S REALITY
"...the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State [under fascism]..."
====
Degrading education will affect the whole social system we have
Oregon Suspends Need For High School Graduates To Be Proficient In Reading, Writing, & Math
"If we truly care for these students, we cannot rig the system to just kick them down the road toward failure..."
====
HERE WE GO AGAIN: DOZENS OF MAJOR EVENTS ARE BEING CANCELLED ACROSS THE COUNTRY DUE TO COVID
But we thought the vaccine was supposed to return us to normal?
====
US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis, D rest in limbo
Worse Boycott to Beijing will come from US. Athletes Assoc can stop this nasty mov
Attention Turns From Tokyo Olympics To Beijing 2022 Amid Calls For Boycott
The PANDEMIC IS JUST ONE OF THE PROBLEMS that the Beijing Winter Olympics is facing...
….
Pandemic won’t be worse than Tokyo faced. The political boycott is worse. This will create a huge political respond from China. This will be bad precedent for sports world wide, Sports bring peace & solidarity, not political conflicts.
====
BEIJING PLANS TO STICK WITH ITS "ZERO TOLERANCE" APPROACH TO COVID AS DELTA WAVE SPREADS
"...in the long term, the West's barbaric route of disregarding human lives will eventually compete with China's dynamic approach of clearing COVID-19 cases, and economic growth will be the peak of the
====
TRACKING CHINA'S REGULATORY RESET: HANDY CHEAT SHEET OF BEIJING'S REGULATORY CRACKDOWN
Feeling over whelmed by all the recent regulatory changes undertaken by Beijing as the communist central planners crack down on private sectors and wealthy oligarchs? Then this cheat sheet is for you
====
NORTH KOREA LASHES OUT OVER "HOSTILE" US-SOUTH JOINT WAR DRILLS
Inter-Korean military hotline goes silent after PYONGYANG REFUSES CONTACT.
====
US AND CHINESE OFFICIALS SPAR OVER SOUTH CHINA SEA AT UN MEETING
"This country itself has become the biggest threat to peace and stability in the South China Sea."
====
CIA CHIEF'S FIRST TRIP TO ISRAEL WILL FOCUS ON IRAN STANDOFF
CIA director Bill Burns' first trip to region since taking office comes amid Israel-Iran "SHADOW WARS"..
====
RAND PAUL CALLS FOR RESISTANCE TO COVID TYRANNY
"WE WILL NOT SHOW YOU A PASSPORT, we will not wear a mask, we will not be forced into random screenings and testings SO YOU CAN CONTINUE YOUR DRUNK-WITH-POWER REIN..."
====
SPUTNIK NEWS : https://sputniknews.com/
- New York Governor Cuomo is Resigning: What Happens Next?
- Microsoft Contests Amazon’s Secret $10 Billion Cloud Computing Contract With NSA
- Chinese Court Sentences Canadian Michael Spavor to 11 Years in Prison For Spying
- Trudeau Condemns 'Unacceptable and Unjust' Prison Sentence for Canadian Michael Spavor in China
- Texas House Speaker Signs Arrest Warrants for 52 Democrats Who Fled to DC Over Voting Bill
- Microsoft Contests Amazon’s Secret $10 Billion Cloud Computing Contract With NSA
- China to Begin Trials on Benefit of Mixing SinoVac, Inovio COVID-19 Vaccines This Autumn
- AMC Theaters to Start Accepting Bitcoin for Tickets
- Tropical Storm Likely to Thrash Caribbean Islands Before Heading for Florida
- Russian MoD: CSTO Must Be Ready for Possible Infiltration of Terrorists From Afghanistan
- Canadian Prosecutor Says No One Received ‘Fairer’ Hearing Than Huawei CFO Meng
====
====
No hay comentarios:
Publicar un comentario