Nueva Democracia: NOV 12 20 ND SIT EC y POL

NOV 12 20 ND SIT EC y POL

ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco

WATCH LIVE: POWELL, LAGARDE, & BAILEY DISCUSS THE FUTURE OF CENTRAL BANKS

The central bankers will discuss economic stabilization in a dramatically changing environment...

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ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS

Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

THE HOUSING DEBT BUBBLE IS GOING TO BURST

“...the relative calm we feel in the markets right now isn’t the end of the storm, it is just the eye, it may seem like there is no storm at all...yet the worst is yet to come.”

Authored by Patrick Hill via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

The $100B+ Housing Debt Bubble Is Going To Burst

“Being self-employed, I don’t like to add extra bills or burdens, and with a moratorium, there’s no guarantee that later I won’t be further into debt.”

- Lucy, freelance photographer, Colorado – July 2020

Lucy’s concern about accumulating debt echoes across America. Millions of renters and homeowners are anxious about paying both their monthly housing bill and a ballooning debt balance.

Based on present missed payment rates, consumers will accumulate at least $100B in housing debt by January 2021. The following model describes a set of linked health, social and economic events. These events are likely to unfold in next 6 months. An uncontrolled wave of virus infections drives the cascading economic impact:

Virus growth uncontrolled > economic activity contracts > unemployment rises

> personal income falls > consumers miss rent and mortgage payments

> rent and mortgage payment moratoriums fail > consumers use credit cards to make payments

> small business apartment landlords & homeowners default on mortgages (debt bubble bursts)

> consumer spending dives

Virus Growth Uncontrolled

On November 2st the U.S. had a 44% increase in daily COVID-19 to 93,581. The chart below indicates the second wave of infections did not decline to the first wave low. Thus, experts forecast a third winter wave peak of cases will be higher than the second spring wave peak.

See Chart:

50,000 total reported on Nov 2: Cases vs deaths

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/1-8_7.png?itok=AW8J2RYK

Economic Activity Contracts

The U.S. Economy is contracting according to the latest Sales Manager Index. The next chart shows a U.S. Sales Manager survey of national economic activity jumping in the 3rd quarter and then rolling over into contraction.

See Chart:

US : Headline Sales manager index

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2-3_5.png?itok=klP4YgxM

Unemployment Rises

The latest report from the Department of Labor for state unemployment claims and continuing benefits shows a high level of unemployment continuing. The trend chart below shows that while regular state benefits are declining, extended emergency benefits increase for long-term jobless workers.

See Chart:

US Continue jobless claims

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/3-3_8.png?itok=5MQX6P9f

Personal Income Falls

Consumer personal income received a boost from several sources. The CARES Act provided $1,200 stimulus checks, enacted the Payroll Protection Program targeting small businesses, a $600 weekly increase in unemployment insurance, and other emergency loans. The following Oxford Economics analysis indicates that a budget squeeze began in October.

See Chart:

US: The Income risk from expiring Fiscal aid

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/4-2_6.png?itok=HML1EoxC

Consumers Miss Rent and Home Mortgage Payments

The Mortgage Bankers Association reports for the 2nd quarter of 2020 rental income losses of $9.1B and mortgage payments missed of $16.3B. For the 3rd quarter, rental losses were $9.1B and $19.4B in missed mortgage payments. For the 4th quarter, we forecast a continuing $35B total for both missed rental income and mortgage payments. The total forecast for both rental income losses and missed mortgage payments by 2021 is $90B.

However, Moody’s Analytics forecasts $70B in missed rental payments alone by 12.8M renters by January 2021. Confirming the 12.8M figure, a study by Joint Center For Housing Studies at Harvard reports that 12.1M renter households have at least one at-risk-industry worker. Due to the wide variance in estimates, we forecast at least $100B in rental and mortgage debt due in January 2021.

Our forecast of $100B in looming housing debt builds on our earlier analysis in a recent Executive – Employee Catch 22 post. In that post we identified two consumer segments, workers and professionals. We noted all homeowners reported no-confidence in making next month’s payment. The analysis indicates that 16% of professional homeowners reported little or no-confidence in making mortgage payments for September. Yet, workers reported twice the no-confidence rate of professionals at 34%.

Rent and Mortgage Moratoriums Fail

The CARES Act mortgage and rent moratorium covered homes and apartment buildings secured with federal loans through July 31st. Renters obtained payment relief, while landlords continued to pay mortgage loans from their funds or relief act assistance. In mid-August, President Trump signed an executive order instructing the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to identify households where infections may increase and mandate that household members be protected from eviction to ensure public safety. Since the federal moratorium ended and the CDC policy has been put into effect, thousands of landlords have filed suits challenging the CDC authority to protect renters from eviction.

Courts in some states are finding in favor of landlords causing evictions to rise. Moody’s Analytics forecasts that 16% of all renters will face eviction by January 2021. States like California and Washington passed blanket rent moratoriums in effect until January 1st, 2021. Rent debt is not erased in any case. The California moratorium calls for landlords to receive 25 % of the debt balance in January and 50% in February, followed by 25% increments to zero. With no stimulus assistance to renters and distressed homeowners, housing debt will likely continue to soar.

Consumers Use Credit Cards To Make Payments

Credit card usage by renters increased by 70% last spring. As renters received stimulus payments, the rate dipped to 50%. However, the credit card payment rate has risen to 65% due to the end of stimulus assistance.

See Chart:

Credit card payments to small businesses. Annual Change

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/5-1_5.png?itok=iVxtCdvU

Consumers building credit card debt while unemployed or on reduced income assistance is unsustainable. Many consumers will be unable to make their credit card payments. Defaulting on their credit cards will hurt their credit score and make it more difficult to obtain other housing because they have an eviction record. A surge in credit card defaults will increase losses for credit card issuing banks as well. Today, missed rent payments force millions of small business landlords to fall behind in their mortgage payments.

Small Business Landlords Default on Mortgages

When renters miss payments, their landlords must continue to pay the mortgage on their building. Property corporations with access to low-interest bank loans or bond markets will have a cushion during this rent loss period. However, many small business landlords are financially stressed. Small business landlords own 22M properties, which are usually 1- 4 unit buildings Local small unit landlords finance their purchases with savings, other business profits, or family and friends. Only 12% of small unit buildings were covered by the CARES Act rent moratorium, which ended on July 31st. So, some small business landlords have taken action to evict tenants.

Facing a cash flow crunch, anxious small business landlords applied for CARES Act business emergency loans to mitigate income loss.

However, by 1st quarter of 2021, there are likely to be millions of people evicted or with poor credit so, finding another paying tenant could be problematic. Small business landlords facing declining income and poor prospects for new paying tenants will likely default on their mortgage. There is likely to be a surge in multi-unit buildings for sale, causing a decline in multi-unit building construction

Consumer Spending Dives

A perfect economic storm is gathering strength from the health, social and financial forces we have identified in this post. The corona virus continues to penetrate all facets of American life, driving uncertainty in the economy. Until we have a national virus containment program implemented, the pandemic will force economic activity down. Without a stimulus package from Congress, millions of unemployed workers, renters, and small businesses will struggle. With the bottom 80% of consumers facing severe economic headwinds, consumer spending will likely dive in the first half of next year.

For investors, this is the time to prepare for a possible severe economic storm coming this winter. Scott Minerd, Global CIO at Guggenheim, observes that we have a pause now giving us time to prepare for an economic whirlwind:

“the relative calm we feel in the markets right now isn’t the end of the storm, it is just the eye, it may seem like there is no storm at all…yet the worst is yet to come.”

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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/housing-debt-bubble-going-burst

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KILLING USD and create tax evasion for the FED

BITCOIN, ETHEREUM EXTEND GAINS AS PAYPAL'S CRYPTO-TRADING SERVICE GOES LIVE IN THE US

"The shift to digital forms of currencies is inevitable, bringing with it clear advantages in terms of financial inclusion and access; efficiency, speed and resilience..."

It has been a month since PayPal announced it would begin allowing crypto-trading through its platform and today that service went live.

The big cryptos have rallied strongly since the announcement and are extending gains today...

See Chart:

BITCOIN

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmDF31.jpg?itok=iHV2rchy

One more crypto: ETHEREUM

See chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm2C98.jpg?itok=KSSaEaGu

In Spanish: “al palo caido.. acha con el”

As CoinTelegraph's Kollen Post reports, PayPal's crypto trading and payments went live for all eligible customers in the United States.

Per its updated announcement, PayPal ended its waitlist for customers looking to use cryptocurrency in the U.S. Trading features a limit of $20,000 per week, which is double the originally announced $10,000.

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SOURCE https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/bitcoin-ethereum-extend-gains-paypals-crypto-trading-service-goes-live-us

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NO NUCLEAR BAILOUT IN PA

Put a stop to the shady practices of nuclear corporations. Say no to a nuclear bailout.

No Nuke Bailout

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STOCKS, YIELDS SLIDE AS ODDS OF $1+ TRILLION FISCAL STIMULUS COLLAPSE

The White House move "greatly diminishes the chances of a trillion-dollar or more stimulus for the U.S. economy before January."

Having traded near sessions highs, the Emini swooned nearly 20 points lower as fiscal stimulus noise and signal returned to the forefront after Sen Mitch McConnnell spoke in the Senate and agreed that while "there should be another fiscal stimulus package," he caveated that he was not interested in "dramatically larger" stimulus.

However, perhaps due to its bigger challenges with challenging the election outcome, the White House drive for a mega stimulus has now fizzled, with Bloomberg reporting that the Trump administration is now stepping back from stimulus talks.

According to Bloomberg, the White House move "greatly diminishes the chances of a trillion-dollar or more stimulus for the U.S. economy before January."

The paradox in all of this is that if Trump fails to overturn the election outcome, he will hand Biden a $1.6 trillion blank check: that is how much cash is currently in the Treasury General Account which the US government could quickly distribute to the population... if it so wanted.

See Chart:

Treasury Cash Balance

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/TGA%2011.12.jpg?itok=d32pYxI2

Fed Chair Powell said that Congress and/or Fed will need to do more, suggesting that as Fiscal stimulus odds fade, monetary stimulus odds rise:

POWELL: THIS IS NOT A TIME FOR COMPLACENCY
POWELL: THERE'S NO FULL RECOVERY WITHOUT CONFIDENCE

Following the news, ES dropped about 20 points but has since recovered some of the loss...

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-11-12%20%281%29.jpg?itok=wm9tmUeL

... while 10Y yields dropped to session lows, briefly sliding below 0.90%.

See Chart:

UST 10Y Yield

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-11-12.jpg?itok=75b6q7EK

But the brief bounce in stocks has given way as more realize fiscal help is not coming anytime soon...

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-11-12_9-43-31.jpg?itok=wvMtJuK6

BLOCKED?... El fascism can burn books.. but never create it

SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-yields-slide-odds-1-trillion-fiscal-stimulus-collapse

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AS BITCOIN TOPS $16K, DALIO WARNS NATIONS WILL 'OUTLAW' CRYPTO IF PRICES KEEP RISING

expects authorities to clamp down on cryptocurrencies

when they see “material” growth.

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APPLY FDR POLICY: TAX THEM HEAVELY

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US DOMESTIC POLITICS

Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio

The experts in FRAUDS still fostering violent chaos

GIULIANI: 650,000 VOTES WERE COUNTED UNLAWFULLY IN PHILADELPHIA AND PITTSBURGH

“What’s being said in the mass media, that we have no evidence, is a complete, absolute lie, just like they’ve been lying for years...”

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If we can’t get 90%+ accuracy on vaccine to CV-19, pay the people infest with wrong vaccine

LESS THAN HALF OF AMERICANS LIKELY TO COMPLY WITH NEW COVID LOCKDOWN: GALLUP

Poll published just as one of Biden's coronavirus task force doctors floated the idea of a new six week lockdown...

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Gallup is clear: Americans don’t trust the pro-business health syst. It should no be privatized, greed only benefits big corp. 50% of US Populat won’t accept Lock Down

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EVERYTHING YOU DON'T WANT TO KNOW ABOUT COVID VACCINES (BECAUSE YOU CAN'T BE BULLISH ANYMORE)

In such a highly polarized, politicized environment, is such a scrupulously objective study even possible?

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MARICOPA COUNTY AZ GOP CHAIR RESIGNS AFTER FAILING TO CERTIFY DOMINION VOTING MACHINES

"100% unacceptable..."

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DID ICE JUST NUKE THEIR TWITTER ACCOUNT AHEAD OF BIDEN U-TURN ON IMMIGRATION?

Odd timing...

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FOX TUMBLES AS TRUMP URGES FOLLOWERS TO TURN AWAY AMID RUMORS ABOUT RIVAL OFFERING

In a tweet, Trump essentially blamed the network for the election results, and argued that the network "forgot what made them successful".