NOV 7 20 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
Confessions of an Investor:
MARKET SURGES AS ELECTION TURNS INTO OPTIMAL OUTCOME
Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,
To win the “investing war,” it is essential to pick and choose our “battles” wisely. If you aren’t sure about the battleground, it is always better to retreat and “live to fight another day"...
After reducing equity risk in portfolios over the last few weeks, we suggested last week the “selling” was likely overdone.
It was quite the reversal. The rally pushed the market back above the 50-dma and lower highs’ previous downtrend. Such sets the market up for a retest of all-time highs next week.
Not Out Of The Woods
However, before you get all excited and go throwing your money into the market, you may want to step back and re-evaluate your risk. If you haven’t liked the ups and downs in the market over the last couple of months, you have too much “risk” in your portfolio.
The volatility isn’t over. Particularly as we head into 2021.
Furthermore, while we did expect this rally and added exposure in our portfolios, the previous “oversold” condition has now been largely reversed. As shown below, the market is now back to more “overbought” conditions, which suggests limited upside from current levels. Also, the deviation from the 200-dma is now back to levels that have previously led to mild, short-term corrections.
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/SP500-OB-OS-110620.png?itok=Aqqya9t7
Still A Sellable Rally
“Such a rally will provide an opportunity to rebalance portfolio risks accordingly. As we will discuss momentarily, the markets will begin to process the election’s impact on various sectors and the market itself.
However, the economy’s disconnect remains longer-term, which can not last as earnings come from economic activity. While the very short-term trading environment is conducive for a rally, the longer-term ‘investing’ environment is still problematic with weakening relative strength, participation, and fundamental issues.
Keep a watch on the Advance-Decline line. Over the last few trading days, the rapid surge in prices pushed that indicator back to more extreme overbought conditions, typically denote short- to intermediate-term tops.
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/NYAD-Line-110620.png?itok=27r8Oyog
For all of these reasons, aggressively positioned investors can use any rally to adjust portfolio volatility and risk.
Remember, investing isn’t a competition for who can say they “beat the market.” There are no “trophies.” However, there is a heavy penalty to your retirement goals if you are wrong.
Gridlock Is Best For Markets
On Thursday, in our daily “3-Minutes” video, I discussed why the markets were rallying despite a hotly contested election.
Listen Video: https://youtu.be/VT9ZmRSO3lI
As noted, it doesn’t matter who the President is. With the GOP potentially maintaining control of the Senate and narrowing the majority in the House, such vastly reduces significant policy changes such as:
- Higher taxes
- Massive stimulus packages
- Extreme regulation on the oil and gas industry
- Large spending packages on “green energy.”
- Major reform or socialization of health care.
- An inflationary spike.
Such bodes well for the markets as noted by MarketWatch:
“The likely reason that Wall Street likes gridlock is that it reduces the possibility that any major policy changes will take effect. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA, noted in an email to clients that the increasingly likely gridlock ‘lessens the prospects for an increase in regulations and taxes.’ In addition, he added, the gridlock reduces the likelihood of ‘additional fiscal stimulus’ — and that reduced likelihood in turn eases potential inflationary pressures down the road.”
As noted last week, such also aligns with historical Presidential election years. The weakness in September and October turns to strength in November and December.
See Chart:
A Continuation Of The Rally Into Year-End
My colleague Doug Kass confirms our view of a rally into year-end.
“With the perception, in part, of election uncertainty and the quicker spread of Covid-19, market participants have been positioned defensively and cautiously. We have exited the weakest period of the calendar (August to October) and are entering a two-month period where stocks are seasonally strong.
The evolving market structure change, in which the market is dominated by products and strategies chasing price and momentum, could catapult the markets higher rather swiftly. In ‘risk parity’ and other quant strategies, ‘buyers live higher and sellers live lower.’ They are and might continue to buy high.”
He is correct.
Combine his thesis with a lack of significant policy changes from Washington, and it is likely money will continue to chase “risk assets” given no other alternative currently. With yield spreads compressed, interest rates at zero, the “T.I.N.A” (There Is No Alternative) narrative continues to reign.
However, as noted, beware 2021.
The Focus Turns Back To The Fed
Once we start to analyze what “Gridlock” will mean for policy, it should become apparent what the “risks” are.
As we have noted previously, earnings growth rates continue to drop as we head into next year. With stock prices back near all-time highs, this continues to be a market that is driven solely by valuation expansion.
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Valuation-Earnings-110520.png?itok=we6jsWXx
The majority of that “price chase” has been based solely on the premise of more liquidity coming from the Federal Reserve. The hope, of course, is that eventually, earnings will play “catchup” with valuations. Historically, such has never been the case.
As we head into 2021, a “gridlocked” Congress potentially means less stimulus, less infrastructure spending, and more battles over the debt and deficit. The regular “debt ceiling” fights will return, and smaller stimulus packages will compound time delays.
Such translates into three critical factors for the financial markets:
- Less direct stimulus to households means reduced spending and lower rates of economic growth.
- Less stimulus means there is less debt issued, which keeps the Federal Reserve trapped with interest rates at zero.
- The combination of less stimulus and Fed monetization will lead to increased deflationary pressures.
In 2021, the odds of another recessionary bought will increase, putting downward pressure on stocks. The only question will be if the Federal Reserve can bail it out again as the “effective benefit” continues to decline.
The Fed Remains Stuck At Zero
This past week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concluded their meeting. Not surprisingly, given the embattled election and lack of stimulus, they provided “happy talk” to the markets.
See FED Statement:
In other words, they said “nothing.” As Mish Shedlock noted in his post:
“The Fed is stuck in glue. It did not change interest rates. Nor did it change much of its announcement.”
However, it is more important to understand their dilemma.
“The Fed is stuck and will not lower rates below zero nor can it raise them without killing housing. Meanwhile, the bubbles keep getting bigger increasing the odds of a deflationary collapse.”
Such is indeed the most significant risk to both the economy and the markets. As we noted in yesterday’s “Rescues Are Ruining Capitalism.”:
“The rest of the world followed the Fed. As interest rates fell toward zero, the world’s debts—including households, governments and nonfinancial companies—more than tripled between 1980 and 2007 to more than three times the size of the global economy.
It was taking more debt to fuel the same amount of growth, because more debt was going to unproductive borrowers. Capitalism was bogging down.” – Sharma
Eventually, the void will become too large to fill.
“The continuous bailouts continue to distort the market’s price signals, which makes the markets less efficient in allocating capital. Such has led to the rising number of “zombies” and monopolies, the widening of wealth inequality, and lower productivity and growth.
The deformation of capitalism will be an economic plague that continues to lead to further dysfunction alienating younger generations. Social unrest and revolt will be the eventual result.”
As we discussed recently in “Policies Over Politics,” what matters most long-term are taxes, debt, and deficits. Unfortunately, we will probably head the wrong way on all three.
To win the “investing war,” it is essential to pick and choose our “battles” wisely. If you aren’t sure about the battleground, it is always better to retreat and “live to fight another day.”
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SOURCE https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/market-surges-election-turns-optimal-outcome
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THE RESCUES ARE RUINING CAPITALISM
“The time to repair the roof is when the sun is shining"... Instead, we seem to have just removed the roof altogether...
Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,
I want to discuss a recent WallStreet Journal article by Ruchir Sharma entitled “The Rescues Ruining Capitalism.”
We talk much about the bailouts and stimulus programs related to the economic shutdown and pandemic. However, the bailouts began back in 2008 when the Federal Reserve intervened with the insolvency of Bear Stearns.
See List :
Facility
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/image_2020-10-29_133047.png?itok=iCk42HQC
To date, the Federal Reserve, and the Government, have pumped more than $36 Trillion into the economy to keep it “afloat.”
I say “afloat” rather than “growing” because, during the last decade, economic “growth” was a function of population growth. Monetary interventions were successful in creating inflation in financial assets. However, during the same period, the economy grew by only $2.92 Trillion.
In other words, for each dollar of economic growth since 2008, it required $12.67 of monetary stimulus. Such sounds okay until you realize it came solely from debt issuance.
Bailouts Ruining Capitalism
We need that bit of history to understand why “bailouts are ruining capitalism.”
Skeep
The Fed’s foray into “policy flexibility” did extend the business cycle longer than normal. However, those extensions led to higher structural budget deficits. The byproduct was increased private and public debt, artificially low interest rates, negative real yields, and inflated financial asset valuations.
See Chart:
Specifically to Sharma’s point:
“However, these policies have all but failed to this point. From ‘cash for clunkers’ to ‘Quantitative Easing,’ economic prosperity worsened. Pulling forward future consumption, or inflating asset markets, exacerbated an artificial wealth effect. Such led to decreased savings rather than productive investments.”
See Chart:
Economic Prosperity Poot before, Worse Now
The Fed’s “Moral Hazard”
“This is a dangerous form of denial. A growing body of research shows that constant government stimulus has been a major contributor to many of modern capitalism’s most glaring ills. Easy money fuels the rise of giant firms and, along with crisis bailouts, keeps alive heavily indebted “zombie” firms at the expense of startups, which typically drive innovation. All of this leads to low productivity—the prime contributor to the slowdown in economic growth and a shrinking of the pie for everyone.” – Sharma
By not allowing “recessions” to perform their natural “Darwinian” function of “weeding out the weak,” to Sharma’s point:
Zombies’ are firms whose debt servicing costs are higher than their profits but are kept alive by relentless borrowing.
Such is a macroeconomic problem. Zombie firms are less productive, and their existence lowers investment in, and employment at, more productive firms. In short, a side effect of central banks keeping rates low for a long time is it keeps unproductive firms alive. Ultimately, that lowers the long-run growth rate of the economy.” – Axios
See Charts
US Hits All-time high in zombie Companies
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Zombie-Companies-101520%20%281%29.png?itok=RGGUup9s
If capitalism were allowed to function, the weak players would fail. Stronger market players would acquire failed company assets. Bond-holders would receive some compensation for their debt holdings. Shareholders, the ones who accepted the most risk, would get wiped out.
Furthermore, assuming capitalism was allowed to function, investors would require appropriate compensation for the risk when loaning money to companies. Such would provide higher returns to credit-related investors rather than the current state of abnormally low yields for junk-rated debt.
See Chart:
Why is this currently the case? It is the direct result of the Fed’s creation of “moral hazard.” The definition of which is:
“A lack of incentive to guard against risk as investors believe the Fed is protecting them from the consequences of it.”
The Stock Market Is Not The Economy
“At the same time, easy money has juiced up the value of stocks, bonds and other financial assets, which benefits mainly the rich, inflaming social resentment over growing inequalities in income and wealth. It should not be surprising that millennials and Gen Z are growing disillusioned with this distorted form of capitalism and say that they prefer socialism. The irony is that the rising culture of government dependence is, in fact, a form of socialism—for the rich and powerful.” – Sharma
Continue reading at:
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rescues-are-ruining-capitalism
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"THE MARKET COULD FLIP AGAIN": GOLDMAN WARNS A "BLUE WAVE" MAY STILL BE COMING
What if the Blue Wave outcome has only been delayed by two months until the two Georgia Senate run-offs on Jan 5th? If it happens, the Blue Wave/Divided government trades would reverse once again...
"Election Surprise!"
That's the start of David Kostin's latest Weekly research report, in which he writes that while online polling markets ultimately correctly predicted the outcome of the presidential election (absent an unprecedented overturning by the Supreme Court of an election that the MSM has already called on behalf of Biden), the polls were way off in their broad pro-Democrat bias, and the result has been a dismal showing for Democrats who not only lost seats in the House, but failed to gain control of the Senate.
As he explains, "a Blue Wave did not materialize early on election night as many pollsters had predicted. Almost as shocking to investors as Trump’s improbable victory in 2016 (just 22% on the day before the election) was the fact Democrats failed to capture a Senate majority and actually lost seats in the House."
Goldman reminds us, the equity market responded to the November 3rd outcome with a powerful rotation.
On the day after Election Day, many of the popular Democratic sweep trades fell while positions likely to benefit from a divided government rallied sharply. For example, a basket of infrastructure spending beneficiaries fell by 5%, renewable energy stocks fell by 2%, and 10-year US Treasury yields fell by 14 bp. The Pharmaceutical industry and the NASDAQ-100 index each rallied by 4%.
See Chart:
Equity market response to the surprise NOV 3 Election result
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/equity%20market%20response.jpg?itok=XnBs3cA6
This comes from the same Goldman which in November said that a Blue Sweep was great for stocks, writing that a blue wave would "likely prompt us to upgrade our forecasts. The reason is that it would sharply raise the probability of a fiscal stimulus package of at least $2 trillion shortly after the presidential inauguration on January 20, followed by longer-term spending increases on infrastructure, climate, health care and education that would at least match the likely longer-term tax increases on corporations and upper-income earners."
So, will Goldman now downgrade its forecasts?
Underscoring Wall Street's revisionism, on Friday JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic wrote that the election outcome "likely eliminates the Blue Wave scenario" which suddenly is "one of the most favorable scenarios for the market. A GOP senate majority should ensure that Trump’s pro-business policies stay intact (tax code, deregulation), and if Biden is confirmed we should be able to expect an easing of the trade war (which should boost global trade and corporate earnings growth)."
Well, yes: with stocks enjoying a nearly 8% increase in the election week, it would be rather foolish of Wall Streeters to go back to their original thesis that a Blue Wave is bad for risk.
However, the greatest irony would emerge if after being written off for dead, a Blue Wave ultimately does emerge: as Kostin writes, "our client discussions since the election indicate that most investors believe a divided government is the most likely situation for the next two years. But what if the “Blue Wave” outcome has only been delayed by two months?"
Well, yes: with stocks enjoying a nearly 8% increase in the election week, it would be rather foolish of Wall Streeters to go back to their original thesis that a Blue Wave is bad for risk.
Here's why: as we explained last week, the 117th Congress begins on January 3rd, but Senate control will not be known until after Jan. 5, 2021. Based on the latest information, the Senate split appears 50 Republicans and 48 Democrats. Neither the regular nor special Georgia Senate races had a candidate capture more than 50% of the votes, so a run-off will take place between the two leading candidates in each race.
So if the Democrats win the presidency and both Georgia seats, Vice President Kamala Harris would break the tie, giving Democrats control of the Senate. Here, it's worth noting that the odds of Democrats winning both races are very slim, with Republican David Perdue well ahead of his Democrat challenger Jon Ossoff in the first race...
See Chart:
Georgia 1
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/perdue.jpg?itok=IA7g4_N7
... while the second one will see two GOP candidates, Kelly Loeffler and Doug Collins combine to take on Democrats Raphael Wornock and Deborah Jackson, with the republicans comfortably leading their democratic challengers.
See Chart:
Georgia 2
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/georgia%202_0.jpg?itok=a69jWKDZ
In any case, assuming there is yet another shock outcome, Kostin notes that the policies of a Biden administration would differ dramatically depending on the results in Georgia.
So what would be the equity implications of such an event, however unlikely it may be?
Before we get into the details of Goldman's explanation, we'd like to point out the obvious: stocks will continue ripping higher, because as we have said repeatedly, to markets it does not matter who the president is, as long as the Fed and central banks keep injecting liquidity, which as we showed yesterday, they'll keep doing.
See Chart:
Second wave of 2020 QE has began
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/second%20wave%20has%20begun_0.jpg?itok=oWqJnzML
Going back to Kostin, he writes that since markets generally do not like uncertainty, the 6% rally in equities since Election Day suggests investors now expect a divided government, reducing the uncertainty associated with the potential for major policy changes.
To be sure, since 1928 the median 12-month equity return during periods of divided federal government (12%) has typically exceeded the typical return when one political party controls Washington, DC (9%). Indicatively, Goldman's unchanged S&P 500 year-end 2020 target remains 3600 (+3%) which would result in a calendar year return of 11.4%.
So while there still remains some confusion as to what Trump will do now that the election has been called for Biden, according to Goldman, in 2020 the big source of uncertainty is control of the Senate rather than the White House.
As shown in the chart below, while prediction market odds of a Democratic sweep plummeted from 51% to 9% on Election Day, but have since risen to 23%. Policies that just a few days ago were the base case outlook for many investors, including over $2 trillion in virus-related fiscal spending, a potential infrastructure package, and the prospect of higher corporate tax rates, could suddenly again become possible. This, as Goldman previously explained, "could potentially lead to a higher level of corporate profits and equity prices, but they would also increase investor uncertainty."
See Chart:
Prediction market probabilities of Political Control in Washington DC
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/blue%20rotation%201.jpg?itok=Q8lSef4G
Here, Goldman's advice is that "portfolio managers should at least consider the prospect that Cyclicals could benefit from huge stimulus and more government borrowing could lead to a steeper yield curve that would benefit Financials and be less friendly to long-duration, high-growth Tech stocks."
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/blue%20wave%20returns%202.jpg?itok=TWTg2FwK
He concludes that beneficiaries of Trump's 2017 tax reform might be exposed to higher corporate rates, parts of the Health Care sector could face regulatory scrutiny, and some Energy firms could be forced to contend with strengthened environmental regulations.
So is a Blue Wave only a figment of Goldman's imagination? Perhaps, but consider this: stock prices, like prediction markets, appear to be reflecting a rising risk of this outcome: as Kostin concludes, "at the end of this week, infrastructure stocks and rate-sensitive Financials recovered some of their post-election decline, while Tech stocks slipped."
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
Trump needs a psychiatric help for paranoid schizophrenia. His delusions destroy him
"Legal votes decide who is president, not the news media..."
….
The CODE for Law & Order (State & Judiciary) is RIGHT vs WRONG (not legal vs illegal) and Trump is WRONG: He is assuming with not evidence that someone is stealing his votes. Nobody is stealing what he don’t have it. If something is wrong in vote’ counting , the recounting fix the problem. Nothing legal vs illegal on it (nobody goes to jail for this type of mistake). What is wrong is to accuse persons or people on a felony not committed (stealing votes). It is also wrong the trying to use Court on election matters: that is abuse of authority in both Trump & the Judges who participate in this political game. The issue here is that Trump lose this election & it is a matter of honesty & decency to salute & congratulate the Winner Biden to prevent violent chaos in streets. IF Trump don’t do it then he is a psychopath with serious psychiatric problem: paranoid schizophrenia. And this is dangerous if the case is associated with intentions of WW3 (bombing Iran)..It is late for Trump to implement this plan.. but I guess he will try to do it given his fascist outlook. The Court Judges who R helping Trump will not prevent this war if intend it. It I s OUR NATION IN PEACE that will do it.
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WATCH LIVE: TRUMP CAMPAIGN TO HOLD "BIG PRESS CONFERENCE" IN PHILADELPHIA
"Big press conference today in Philadelphia at Four Seasons..."
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"MEET THE NEW RESISTANCE" - MARK LEVIN RAGES AT DEMOCRATS' "CLOWARD-PIVEN" CHAOS PLAN
...the elites get exactly what they want – an angry and desperate citizenry out for the blood of a middleman and out for the blood of each other...
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
OFFICIAL OVERSEEING US NUKES UNEXPECTEDLY RESIGNS AFTER CLASH WITH ENERGY CHIEF
A White House correspondent noted "Some admin officials are unhappy politics are being played with semi-autonomous arm of Energy Dept."
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WW3 at portas? This art suggest that Trump is preparing WW3. Merkel Agst his plan
GERMANY SAYS TRUMP IS "POURING OIL ON THE FIRE" OF POTENTIAL "CONSTITUTIONAL CRISIS"
Top Merkel allies further claimed Trump might be deemed an 'unlawful occupant' of the White House if Biden declared victor...
"Now is the time to keep a cool head until an independently determined result is available,"Maas said in the German media interview. He added that "decent losers are more important for the functioning of a democracy than radiant winners." Heiko Maas is German Foreign Min
Indirectly referencing Germany's rocky and tense relationship with Trump, which has been recently tested on everything from NATO defense spending to the Russian Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to Germany, he urged whatever the outcome that the "West plays as a team again." [ WW3 at portas ]
The new statements out of Germany come a day after top allies of Chancellor Angela Merkel slammed Trump's behavior as "awful". Germany's defense minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer warned Thursday it could "lead to a constitutional crisis" in the US.
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RELATED: 2nd top official who disagree with war plans from Trump
OFFICIAL OVERSEEING US NUKES UNEXPECTEDLY RESIGNS AFTER CLASH WITH ENERGY CHIEF
A White House correspondent noted "Some admin officials are unhappy politics are being played with semi-autonomous arm of Energy Dept."
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LARGEST STATE-RUN CHINESE NEWSPAPER LAUGHS AT TRUMP IN FIRST REACTION TO BIDEN 'WIN'
Biden’s policy "won’t be as emotional and ridiculous as Trump’s" according to leadership in Beijing.
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CHINA EXPORT GROWTH JUMPS TO 19 MONTH HIGH, DEFYING SURGING YUAN
While China's export growth strengthened on the back of stronger global growth and market share gains helped by stronger home related products, import growth slowed in October on the unwinding of front-loaded chip imports by Huawei in September.
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LET'S TAKE STOCK OF WHERE WE ARE
If the Democrats just ram these election results through without explaining, then the legitimacy not just of our electoral system but of our entire government may suffer a fatal blow...
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
- 'Presid-Elect' J Biden Pledges to 'Make America Respected Around the World Again'
- Biden's Granddaugh Shares Fam Photos Following Candid's Project White H Win
- Potential Contenders for Biden’s Cabinet Unveiled,
- At Least 3 Injured in Virginia Shooting, Police at 'Scene', Urge to Avoid Area
- Biden Speaks to Nation After Being Projected US Election Winner
- Trump Reported to Be Ready to Accept Election Defeat After All Legal Proc Exhaust
- US' Pompeo Engages in Twitter Spat With Iran's Khamenei Over Election Comment
- USA: What Are the Next Steps in the Disputed Election Saga?
- Trump Campaign Files Lawsuit About Rejected Arizona Votes
- US Streets After Media Declare Biden Winner of Presidential Election
- Trump’s Legal Challenges Against Vote Counting Groundless, Doomed to Fail
- Trump Campaign Holds Press Conference on Voting in Philadelphia
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3
-Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided US By J Lemire
- Regime Change In Washing Paves Way To More Nefarious Policies By M of A
- US Murder Machine Now Under Compet Managnt By Caitlin Johnstone
- Bidding farewell to America’s failed democracy By Pepe Escobar
- American Requiem By Chris Hedges
- Americans Do Not Need the American Empire By Philip Giraldi
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO allies
- Towards Global Economic Chaos and Societal Destruction By M Chossudovsky
- The Corporate Dictatorship of the Very Rich By Nora Fernandez
- US Presid Election: The View from Outside By Binoy Kampmark
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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’ team
-Biden & Harris Win 2020 Election; See the Latest Vote Count, State by State
- Trump and Reps Use Legal & Physical Means in Attempt Coup Agst Democracy
- I Witnessed Bush Steal 2000 Election in Florida. We Can’t Let Trump Steal This One
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