NOV 23 20 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
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ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
CENTRAL BANKS TO ADD LIQUIDITY WORTH 0.66% OF GLOBAL GDP ON AVERAGE EVERY MONTH IN 2021
"That is a rapid pace of global liquidity injection, the likes of which we haven't seen outside of 2020."
As Morgan Stanley's chief rates strategist Matthew Hornbach wrote in a note this morning, while conceding that "unforeseen obstacles to a buoyant risk environment will arise" he said that "current central bank policies are aimed at softening those blows, and will be effective at doing so." Indeed, as Hornback predicts, "not only will central bank balance sheets continue to expand", with the Morgan Stanley strategist expecting G4 central bank balance sheets to hit just why of $30 trillion in two years, up from $25 trillion currently...
See Chart:
G4: Central Banks Balance sheet forecast
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/central%20bank%20BS.jpg?itok=faHbm3Bt
... but additionally "very few central banks will be raising policy rates in 2021, and a few will be cutting them further."
See Charts:
Ch 1: MS projection for G10 Central Bank Policy rate
Ch 2: MS Projection for EM Central Bank Policy rate
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/g10%20rates%20projections.jpg?itok=mLnpA6NU
Back to Liquidity
Why is liquidity important to macro markets? It both greases the wheels of transactional finance and changes the opportunity set available to investors. When it comes to liquidity, our focus is on both "narrow" and "broad" measures, as defined by Goodfriend (2000). And we expect both types of liquidity to expand in 2021.
Liquidity will come from continued central bank QE...
Central bank purchases of private sector assets (government bonds, corporate bonds, agency MBS) feature heavily in both types of liquidity injection. Exhibit 7 shows our monthly QE projections for the 8 central banks we think will be active in 2021.
We expect these 8 combined to remove US$304 billion of securities ($238 billion of which will be government bonds), on average, from private markets every month in 2021. Unsurprisingly, the Fed and the ECB will remove the most securities each month, in US dollar terms (see Exhibit 8).
See Charts:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/G10%20central%20banks.jpg?itok=53Ip33Mc
Ch 1: G10 Central Bank expected average monthly QE pace in 2021
Ch 2: G10 Central Bank expected average monthly QE pace in 2021, in USD
In total, these 8 central banks are expected to add liquidity worth 0.66% of annual nominal GDP, on average, every month in 2021. "That is a rapid pace of global liquidity injection, the likes of which we haven't seen outside of 2020" Hornbach casually inserts.
See Charts:
G10 Central Bank expect averag monthly QE (2021) as % of central bank bal sheet size
G10 Central Bank expect averag monthly QE (2021) as % of annual nominal GDP
While these are staggering numbers, consider that the IIF now sees total global debt rising from $277 trillion at the end of 2020 to a grotesque $360 trillion by 2030, over $85 trillion from current levels.
See Chart:
Global debt will likely surpass $360 trillion by 2030
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/total%20debt%20360_1.jpg?itok=FYCoRFnJ
And in a world in which helicopter money is the norm as government debt is now actively monetized by central banks to enable MMT, we expect the real central bank balance sheet number to be drastically higher than Morgan Stanley's forecast.
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DOLLAR JUMPS, GOLD DUMPS, AS MASSIVE SHORT-SQUEEZE SENDS 'GREED' NEAR 2020 HIGHS
Another Monday, another positive vaccine headline
Small Caps soared to a new record high today after better than expected PMIs and positive vaccine headlines trumped increasingly distant stimulus hopes (but it's clear the rotation continues)... The market extended gains late on after stimulus-hungry-Yellen was reported as Biden's primary pick for Treasury Secretary (but that spike did not hold)...Nasdaq ended unch...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-11-23_13-00-03.jpg?itok=EfjWjI5T
Since the election, Small Caps are up almost 12%, Nasdaq and S&P up around 5%..
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-11-23_12-37-36.jpg?itok=aECgVwEp
Russell 2000 is at its highest relative to Nasdaq 100 since June...
See Chart:
Russell 2000 / Nasdaq 100
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm1C37.jpg?itok=cZiFzGEo
On a side note, after briefly topping 100% of the Russell 2000's Market Cap, AAPL is now back at 'just' 75% of it...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm1367.jpg?itok=5MNYdZX_
The Russell/Nasdaq ratio has decoupled from real-yields for now...
See Chat:
10Y Real Yield vs Russell 2000 & Nasdaq 100
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm1F92_1.jpg?itok=w3GjaO5P
Energy stocks surged once again today, back to its highest relative to tech since early August...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm60AD.jpg?itok=qiii2iqM
The dollar spiked significantly after PMIs beat and stimulus hopes faded...
See Chart:
Bloomberg Dollar Index
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm956.jpg?itok=D2cTlINr
As flows are favoring crypto over gold for now...
See Chart:
Open Interest (USD): Gold futs /BTC futs
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm229D_0.jpg?itok=d9flE-z-
WTI CONTINUED TO RALLY, BACK ABOVE $43 (BUT UNABLE TO TAKE OUT THE 11/11 HIGHS FOR NOW)...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-11-23_12-11-33.jpg?itok=v_HEyGE5
Finally, we note that hard (real economy) and soft (survey) data has massively decoupled once again on a sea of hope...
See Chart:
Soft data / hard data / HOPE
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm7FE8.jpg?itok=b3LKDuep
..and 'everything' is risk-on...
See Chart:
Cross Assessment momentum is at the top of its range
And we haven't seen this level of greed in a while...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-11-23_11-21-14.jpg?itok=6VXEx3MG
As Deutsche notes, "This asymmetric market response suggests that positioning is now extended".
And the good news is that the positivity rate is rolling over...
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-11-23.png?itok=NeeqoGB3
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
AMERICA'S ECONOMY CANNOT SURVIVE ANOTHER LOCKDOWN, AND THE CULT OF THE RESET KNOWS IT
One of the biggest obstacles to the finalization of the reset and the formation of the new world order has been liberty-minded populations across the planet - most of all, the liberty-minded people within America.
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Double language = double intention = farce & dishonesty. He don’t concede: PA fraud
TRUMP TELLS GSA TO ALLOW BIDEN TRANSITION TO PROCEED "IN THE BEST INTEREST OF OUR COUNTRY"
"...in the best interest of our Country, I am recommending that Emily and her team do what needs to be done with regard to initial protocols, and have told my team to do the same"
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President Trump agreed to let GSA proceed with the Biden administration transition. In a pair of tweets, Trump noted:
"I want to thank Emily Murphy at GSA for her steadfast dedication and loyalty to our Country. She has been harassed, threatened, and abused – and I do not want to see this happen to her, her family, or employees of GSA."
Trump added that while the election litigation battle continues...
"Our case STRONGLY continues, we will keep up the good fight, and I believe we will prevail!"
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Who committed fraud in PA? either one or both parties (Reps & Dems). What evidence to eliminate several millions votes to Biden? So far: none. Take at random 10 of those votes: if more than five = fraud. Then see who did it. IF not clear evidence, then call new elections in Pennsylvania. Late?.. Is no argument If violence & chaos has to be avoided. IF 5 are false vote & 5 good, more reason to go to new election. To get PEACE & avoid violence the new election has to be called in the next 10 days. All needed is a pact bet both crook parties
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Adding insult to injury: Journalism caused fraud? They are free to take polit-position
PROPAGANDA, ELECTION FRAUD, & THE DEATH OF JOURNALISM
"The coverage of this has been almost as dishonest as the scheme itself. The American people are entitled to know this..."
“Big Media says the evidence just doesn’t exist”
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The lie ‘stealing elecctions’. A lie always refer something that doesn’t s exist.
Steal means taking something that belongs to other person (or party). IF one assumes property of something that does not belong to him, that lie is a real felony in politics. Besides, it is stupid to say: the other party stole my election (el otro Partido me robo las elecciones). The wrong assumption or ‘lie” is to say that this election belongs to Trump. Is OK to say that his wife “belong” to him, but is an idiocy to say that such election belong to him. Que diga que su esposa le pertenece es OK pero decir lo mismo de las lecciones es una idiotez.
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IN REVERSAL, GENERAL MOTORS BACKS BIDEN, WITHDRAWS SUPPORT FOR TRUMP EMISSIONS ROLLBACKS
"President-elect Biden recently said, ‘I believe that we can own the 21st century car market again by moving to electric vehicles.’ We at General Motors couldn’t agree more" GM CEO Mary Barra wrote.
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MICHIGAN CERTIFIES BIDEN VICTORY AS REPUBLICAN CANVASSER FOLDS
"Democracy has prevailed..."
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
14 MILLION PEOPLE WILL LOSE THEIR UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS, 30 MILLION AT RISK OF EVICTION ON JANUARY 1
The US economy has just over a month before the covid "safety net" is pulled.
While markets remain on edge over the sudden tension between the Treasury and the Fed, following Mnuchin's surprise notice to Powell that the Treasury would let 8 of the key 13(3) "emergency" programs currently in place (including the critical for the bond market Corporate Credit facilities, PMCCF and SMCCF) at the Fed expire on Dec 31...
See Chart:
FED 13 (3) “Emergency” Facilities usage
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/fed%20133.jpg?itok=rcRmImt-
... which also threatens the continuation of Helicopter Money into 2021 as the only reason the Fed has been able to monetize all US issuance this year while sending stocks soaring has been the close cooperation between the Fed and Treasury, another, more important "expiration" will take place on Dec 31, and will likely have far more profound consequences for the broader US population.
See More Charts at:
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SPUTNIK NEWS
- Trump Tweets He'll 'Never Concede to Fake Ballots & Dominion' After Greenlighting Biden Transition
- Thanksgiving Turkey Pardon to Become Trump's First Public Appearance in Several Days
- Republican Congresswoman-Elect Reportedly Asks for Permission to Carry Glock Pistol at Capitol
- Pentagon Says Will Make Post-Election Resources, Services Available to Biden Transition Team
- Protests in Guatemala Force Congress to Suspend Budget Processing
- NASA Hopes China Shares Data Obtained During Chang'e Lunar Mission With Scientists
- Arab Coalition Says Houthi Strike at Aramco Oil Facility Targets Global Energy Security
- Feinstein Vows to Not Seek Chairmanship in US Senate Following SCOTUS Hearing Blowback
- Google Invests $1Mln in Stabilisation Grant for Native-Owned Small Businesses
- US Tests F-35’s Ability to Carry Out Supersonic Nuclear Strikes Over Nevada Desert
- Fauci Says He Expects AstraZeneca to Brief Him on Coronavirus Vaccine Tuesday
- Majority of Republican Voters Want Trump to Run in 2024 US Presidential Election
- China to Begin Construction of Its Space Station
- Pennsylvania Supreme Court Rejects Trump Bid to Invalidate Ballots
Trump Endorses Move by General Services Administration to Begin US Presidential Transition Process
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