Nueva Democracia: NOV 2 20 ND SIT EC y POL

NOV 2 20 ND SIT EC y POL

ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco

YALE PSYCHIATRIST ARGUES THAT TRUMP IS WORSE THAN HITLER

“At least Hitler improved the daily life of his followers.”

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ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS

Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

DESPITE TECH TUMBLE; STOCKS, BONDS, GOLD, & THE DOLLAR RALLY ON ELECTION EVE

As Asia closed and Europe opened, US equity futures were panic bid up 400-plus Dow points overnight, clung to gains into the US cash open when Nasdaq was dumped and Small Caps pumped along with The Dow. Last minute buying panics ramped Nasdaq barely into the green...

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-11-02_13-00-21.jpg?itok=y67qWbzx

Weakness in Nasdaq was driven by the mega-tech names with AMZN taking a good hit...

See Chart:

FANG Stokcs

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmEB6E.jpg?itok=XJkaCBXk

Brace yourself for some vol in the next 24 hours:

All the major US indices are at critical technical levels ahead of the election night malarkey...

See Charts:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-11-02_12-31-58.jpg?itok=h5G5uuLY

And equity risk remains very rich relative to credit risk...

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm44DE_0.jpg?itok=h-TAmrIm

Value stocks were bid today...

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm19D9.jpg?itok=CVB7PU5O

Despite broad stock market gains, bonds were also bid with the long-end outperforming...

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmC15C_0.jpg?itok=npm6w4aT

The B-dollar index rallied for the 4th straight day back to its strongest since early October...

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm489D.jpg?itok=v-c7fwEJ

Gold was bid, despite USD gains, pushing back up towards $1900...

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-11-02_12-24-38.jpg?itok=tCc2VWia

Oil prices exploded higher after crashing to a $33 handle overnight. The rebound was catalyzed by Russia comments on OPEC+ output cuts...

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-11-02_12-18-59.jpg?itok=cTZnredc

Finally, all eyes on Pennsylvania...

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm3973.jpg?itok=GabMS6eT

What's the worst that could happen?

See Chart:

S&P 1987 & NOW

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm765.jpg?itok=Q3xOlk_e

….

SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/despite-tech-tumble-stocks-bonds-gold-dollar-rally-election-eve

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AFTER CORRECTLY CALLING THE 10% STOCK CORRECTION, MS NOW SEES AN IMMINENT 100BPS SURGE IN YIELDS

"10 year yields are about to rise significantly and a 100 bps move cannot beruled out. In fact, we think it should be expected."

As the strategist explains, a key part of his bearish call was based on the view that the equity risk premium should have a larger buffer built in given these very visible risks/events. Fast forward to today and that's exactly what's happened, with the Equity Risk Premium widening by approximately 30 bps to 405 bps from the 375 bps level when he made his first call. At the same time, with interest rates remaining steady rather than falling as they typically do when equity markets sell off, the P/E has compressed by approximately 10%. Putting it all together, Wilson suggested a 50bps buffer to where ERP should trade based on realized vol would be appropriate going into the election.

See Chart:

S&P500 30 Days realized Volatility

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/MS%20ERP_1.jpg?itok=O0n6-wjwolatility

If that weren't enough, the yield is now poking its head above its 200 day moving average for the first time in almost 2 years.

See Chart:

10 Years UST yields Breaking out

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/10Y%20breakout%20200%20DMA.jpg?itok=W-GIcKIK

As Wilson stated one month ago when he first touched on the possibility of a "rate scare", this set up looks very similar to 2016 on so many levels except with greater magnitude. After the election in 2016, 10 year yields move higher by 120bps in a few short weeks. So "could we be looking at a repeat this time around" Wilson asks and answers: yes.

See Chart:

Déjà vu with 2016 Eelection?

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2016%20election%20deja%20vu.jpg?itok=eW3S84Oe

So going back to the biggest wildcard in Morgan Stanley's forecast - and this should be taken seriously because unlike his pals at Goldman and JPM, Michael Wilson tends to be rather spot on in his predictions - he thinks "10 year yields are about to rise significantly and a 100 bps move cannot beruled out. In fact, we think it should be expected."

….

SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/after-correctly-calling-10-stock-correction-ms-now-sees-imminent-100bps-surge-yields

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US DOMESTIC POLITICS

Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio

THIS ELECTION IS A SIMPLE CHOICE: FACE A CHAOTIC FUTURE WITH COURAGE... OR FEAR

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, 'n Guns blog,

This election season hasn’t been about Trump versus Biden.

It hasn’t been about capitalism versus socialism.

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YOUR LAST MINUTE ELECTION NIGHT PREVIEW MUST READ!

by Tyler Durden

Things are about to get really exciting.

SOURCE:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/your-last-minute-election-night-preview-heres-all-you-need-know

Here is how to follow the news on Election Day.

The table below shows the states that are considered toss-ups or have a slight lean according to forecasters (“likely” and “safe” states are likely to go as expected, which gives Biden 226 Electoral College votes and Trump 125 Electoral College votes). As different states below are awarded to each candidate, add the Electoral College votes to their total. The first candidate to 270 Electoral College votes wins the Presidency. Times which these states were called on election night in 2016 are also included, though these times can and will likely vary this year.

See Chart:

Assume Biden begins with 226 and Trump with 125 Electoral College

See Chart

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/chart%201%20EC.jpg?itok=yyMIubIR

Florida and Pennsylvania are perhaps the two most important states to watch as no Republican has won the Presidency without winning Florida since 1924 and it is a must-win for Trump – without it the path for him to reach 270 Electoral College votes diminishes significantly. Meanwhile, as we reported last night, Pennsylvania is considered by FiveThirtyEight to be the most likely “tipping point” in the election and should Biden lose it, he will become the underdog. It is another state which Trump likely needs, but is also critical for Biden. If Biden wins Florida or Pennsylvania, he is very likely to win the election and if he wins both it is almost certain he gains the 270 Electoral College votes.

Additionally, Iowa, Ohio and North Carolina are states Trump won in 2016 and he needs to retain some combination of them – though not necessarily all of them – to win. If he loses all three, it is likely Trump has lost.

Here are a few tips from Bank of America:

1-Be wary of exit polls: The track record of exit polls is tenuous at best. In 2004, exit polls showed John Kerry winning the popular vote by 51% to 48% only to ultimately lose by the same margin.

2-Brace for head fakes: Results from battleground states should begin to trickle in just after polls close within each state (Table 3).

3- Key demographics: In 2016, President Trump was able to tip the election by winning the older and suburban vote. But… In this context, keep an eye on results coming out of suburban areas such as Maricopa County in Arizona and Peach County in Georgia and older leaning regions such as Sumter County and Pinellas County in Florida. Results in these regions could prove to be a canary in the coalmine.

See Table

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/election%20cheat%20sheet%202_0.jpg?itok=jNU9y1lR

Blue Mirage

Florida and North Carolina allow election officials to begin processing mail-in ballots weeks before Election Day, and the results of those counts are expected to be released as soon as polls close on Nov. 3.

Red Mirage

In Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, mail-in ballots cannot be counted until Election Day. While Michigan did recently pass a law that allows many cities to start processing mail-in ballots, such as opening ballot envelopes, the day before the election, they cannot begin to count votes. Because mail-in ballots typically take longer to count than ballots cast in person, the initial results could skew Republican.

When could the Presidential election be called?

Traditionally, most Presidential elections are called by midnight of Election Day (see chart below) but there are few exceptions including the 2000 contested Bush-Gore election and the 2016 Trump-Clinton election. These are also the only two elections in over 130 years in which the Electoral College winner was not the winner of the national popular vote (that is the loser in both those elections received more national votes than the winner).

The obvious message here is that the timing of the results is conditional on how close the election is. Given current election forecasts, polls including in swing states, it is possible that the election results could therefore be known before midnight IF Biden in actuality is going to win by a significant margin.Even if Biden wins, a smaller margin of victory could see delayed results.

One other item to note is that there could be greater care in calling the winner by the major news networks. Traditionally, AP gives the official “call” though other news networks compete to be the first. However, given the polarized climate and concerns around contested elections, networks could be especially cautious before proclamations.

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/pres%20election%20times.jpg?itok=hLfDpHrs

Closing Gap

One key development of note in the past 24 hours has been the continued shift in Trump's favor in a number of swing state polls, which has narrowed the polling margin error difference separating a decisive early Biden victory and a potentially delayed slog towards certainty. This can be seen in a number of states that have more closely clustered around the 1.6-1.9% polling margin in favor of Biden (GA, NC, FL, AZ), which together count for 71 Electoral College Votes (26% of those needed to win). Furthermore, the spread in battleground states has collapsed from over 5% on Oct 13 to half that as of the final polling this evening, at 2.6%

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/RCP%20battle.jpg?itok=zlf7J14T

This matters because if we re-run the analysis we conducted over the weekend where we assume the same polling errors in 2020 as in 2016, Trump will win comfortably with 279 votes, and take Florida, Pennsylvania, Arizona and North Carolina.

Se Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Trump%20279.jpg?itok=0QiUbxPE

As the following chart from JPMorgan shows, Biden's shrinking lead in the polls is indicated by the unusual steepness of the Electoral College curve just before the 2% margin. The exhibit presents cumulative electoral college votes according to polling margin – to give an idea of which states are important to watch to determine which final outcome is most likely. Put in plain English, a systematic polling error of less than 1.6% should give high certainty of a decisive Biden victory assumed tomorrow evening. A systematic polling error of greater than 1.9%, however, will likely push the tipping point states towards those known to likely have delayed results (PA, WI, MI).

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/JPM%20EC%20chart.jpg?itok=-hyY9akf

The next chart shows a baseline and alternative scenarios where a decisive number of electoral college votes could be achieved over the course of election day and beyond. This chart shows cumulative electoral college votes according to likely result release time according to various representative scenarios, to provide a template to track how the actual observed outcomes unfolding election night and beyond is tracking to either the baseline, or to alternative wildcards outcomes.

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/baseline%20and%20alternative.jpg?itok=V4Lwa0hZ

Here are some observations on the chart above from JPMorgan:

- The ‘Baseline’: Early confirmation of Biden/Blue Wave sweep (TX goes to Biden at ~9-10 pm EST). Each of TX, GA, OH, FL and IA are close contests after strong Republican outturns in 2016. Newswires called TX first in 2016, followed by OH. If the same holds true in 2020, Biden victories in TX or OH would suggest no systematic polling error in favor of Trump (and the potential for the opposite). It would set a decisive path to deliver the majority 270 EC votes by around 10-11pm

-Wildcards: On the other hand, Trump has a path to win or at least contest the election process (Trump wins Florida at ~11pm EST, PA/WI/MI results are delayed).

Delayed results in these states keep a contested election a possibility, and could delay the final official outcome for several days while late absentee votes are counted in PA. Without any delays, this upset win could be confirmed as soon as the 10pm closing polls report.

- Biden/gridlock likely (Republicans defend almost all Lean-R incumbent Senate seats pushing to a Jan 5 Georgia Runoff). If Biden wins, Democrats need to net +3 seats to have the bare minimum for a Blue Wave sweep that includes a win in the Senate. Per Cook, they look poised to net +2, with seven toss-up seats to be decided. A Biden victory in NC or IA could potentially carry the Senate seat as well, giving Democrats net +3 or +4. So the signal for the Senate may be clear before midnight (it was called at 1:24am EST in 2016).

According to JPM, markets should focus on and potentially reprice specifically around outcomes in Texas and Florida. A Texas Biden win should trigger a fuller pricing in of the Blue Wave scenario and a closing of wildcard hedges, as it will also likely rule out a delayed or contested scenario. A Florida win by Trump should trigger a pricing of greater risk premium against the baseline low-drama Blue Wave scenario.

Risks of delays and lead changes

Concerns around delays due to greater voting by mail may be overblown in some states, and understated in others. Over 93 million Americans have already voted,including 59 million by mail and 34 million in-person. For reference just 25% of the 2016 votes were by mail, although a big reason for the mail votes is due to the covid pandemic. Most of the swing states are able to process and even count votes ahead of Election Day, which should reduce or eliminate delays. Therefore we would not expect any significant delays in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa or Ohio, thought marginal delays (hours not days) could be seen in Michigan and Wisconsin.

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/ballot%20processing%20times.jpg?itok=jnmOkcoN

CONTINUE READING AT:

SOURCE:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/your-last-minute-election-night-preview-heres-all-you-need-know

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"YOU ARE NO LONGER MY MOTHER" - 'TRUMP DERANGEMENT SYMPTOM' IS TEARING FAMILIES APART

"The damage is done."

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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)

Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo

HUGE ISLAMIST PROTESTS IN BANGLADESH & INDONESIA DEMAND GOVERNMENTS SEVER TIES WITH FRANCE