NOV 3 20 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
STOCKS' SURGE SUGGESTS TRUMP WIN, DOLLAR DIVES AS GOLD THRIVES
For the second day in a row, stocks soared with Small Caps leading the way (up over5% in 2 days) followed by The Dow (some weakness into the close)...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-11-03_13-00-03.jpg?itok=kU-jHB9X
As yet another short squeeze is unleashed...
See Chart:
‘Most Shorted’ Stocks
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm34C3.jpg?itok=ZS_At3bC
This impressive two-day rally into Election Day is pushing the S&P 500 Index’s performance over the past three months into positive territory - a comeback for the indicator which turned negative last week - and that's good news for Trump.
A rising market has tended to precede a victory for the sitting party 86% of the time since 1928.
See Chart:
S&P 500 Vs 3mo Change
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm5968_2.jpg?itok=j_-WXqc3
The theory proved spot on in 2016: Amid all the polls showing Hillary Clinton’s dominant lead over Trump, the equity benchmark fell for nine straight days before the election week, cementing its three-month performance into negative territory.
And all this as the odds of a blue-wave tumble...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm1A98.jpg?itok=LhZmk1pd
The Russell 2000 is as its strongest in almost two month against Nasdaq...
See Chart:
Russell 2000 / Nasdaq 100
The Russell 2000 is as its strongest in almost two month against Nasdaq...
And then there's this - China-exposed stocks have been notably underperforming domestically-focused US stocks in the last two days...which could suggest a Trump win...
See Chart:
China-Exposed Stocks / Russell 200 (Domestic-focused): Biden vs Trump
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm5A8F_0.jpg?itok=Cv5JoPeT
VIX tumbled back below 35...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-11-03_12-53-34.jpg?itok=_2H3k4LT
With UST 10Y Yields within a tick of 90bps - the highest since June 8th (breaking and closing above the 200DMA).
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmFF.jpg?itok=rwDMYeCV
The yield curve (2s10s) closed at its steepest since Jan 2018...
See Chart:
UST 2s-10s Yield Spread
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm366B.jpg?itok=h4gwjcq5
The B-dollar Index tumbled on the day, breaking back below its 50DMA (1169)...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmAFDE.jpg?itok=JdPSz6Dy
WTI rallied once again, back above $38 intraday, ahead of tonight's inventory data...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-11-03_12-08-56.jpg?itok=vFTAHZDc
Finally, do not panic, unless you fear the 'casedemic'...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm960E.jpg?itok=fzslfTjZ
And if you want an indicator for sentiment tonight - follow short-dated yuan volatility... a rise implies Trump more likely to win...
See Chart:
China warns retaliation / US says Ccy Manipulator.
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmFC34.jpg?itok=bZjsW76Q
And if tonight is "contested", 2000 suggests bonds rally as stocks get slammed
See Chart:
2000 ‘contested’ election
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmE103_0.jpg?itok=VzVTiIag
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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-surge-signals-trump-win-dollar-dives-gold-thrives
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You can thank the Federal Reserve and central banks globally for this surge in indebtedness.
S&P Global Ratings projects the global debt-to-GDP level will swell to a record 265% this year. It also expects insolvencies and defaults to rise to levels not seen since the 2009 crisis.
Higher leverage and “a more challenging operating environment” has led S&P Global Ratings to downgrade 22% of corporate and sovereign debt issuers globally — “particularly speculative-grade borrowers and those suffering most from COVID19’s economic effects.”
According to the Institute of International Finance (IIF), global debt is already well above the level S&P Global warned about. In April, the organization reported that global debt across all sectors rose by over $10 trillion in 2019, topping $255 trillion.
You can thank the Federal Reserve and central banks globally for this surge in indebtedness. Central banks simply doubled down on their debt-producing policies in response to the pandemic. The Federal Reserve immediately took interest rates to zero and it has promised to leave them there for years to come. It then launched “QE infinity,” and has increased the money supply at a record pace. Just last week, the Fed lowered the threshold for its “Main Street” loan program for small businesses down to $100,000.
Despite the record levels of indebtedness, S&P Global said it’s not concerned about a debt crisis. But it bases its view on some rather rosy assumptions, including the wide-spread availability of an effective COVID-19 vaccine. It also assumes a global economic recovery.
It seems just as likely that the debt-bubble will pop. In fact, we warned back in December of last year that it was a matter of when, not if, the debt bubble was going to burst.
Conventional wisdom seems to be that the world can avoid economic pain simply by borrowing money that was created out of thin air by central banks. But any sane person understands you don’t borrow your way to prosperity. Borrowed money always has to be paid back. This is an unsustainable path and one to watch closely, despite the optimistic assurances of the mainstream.
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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/debt-monster-loose
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FUTURES, YIELDS TUMBLE WITH TRUMP SET TO WIN FLORIDA
And so we get the first shocker of the night.
As a result of Trump now appearing set to win Florida, futures wiped out all their overnight gains...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Es%202020-11-03_19-48-35.jpg?itok=42wo8LNw
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/futures-yields-tumble-trump-set-win-florida
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JPMORGAN SEES S&P TUMBLING TO 2,500 IN CASE OF BLUE WAVE, SURGING TO 3,900 IF RED WAVE
The market views the Blue Wave as short-term neutral but long-term negative, as the expected Biden tax policy outweighs the benefits from a larger than expected stimulus package. SPX may have upside to ~3400, but it would have larger downside to ~2,500.
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
We’re living in a nation divided...
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THREE STATES LIBERTARIAN VOTERS MAY DECIDE
Authored by Tho Bishop via The Mises Institute,
Since 2016, the role of libertarians in political discourse has tended to devolve away from a relevant political demographic into a weird scapegoat for the Left and Right.
...while the libertarian electorate is not as popular a topic as it once was, it could actually be a very important demographic this year.
There are three states where Gary Johnson voters could flip enough delegates to give one party an electoral college victory.
Nevada
The largest of these states is Nevada, with six electoral votes. Home of Freedom Fest, a libertarian event and one of Donald Trump’s first official campaign events as a candidate in 2015, the state is dominated by the population centers of Las Vegas and Reno.
According to TargetSmart, Democrats had 42 percent of the turnout the day before the election in 2016. In 2020, that’s dropped by 2 percent. This is particularly telling given the Biden campaign’s focus on VBM (vote by mail), which pushed dependable Democratic votes earlier into the election cycle.
See Chart:
NV 2020 Greal Election Early & Absentee vote report
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/nv_target.png?itok=02WPKcsf
New Hampshire
The most iconic libertarian state in the Union continues to be New Hampshire, which has largely remained a beacon of sanity relative to its fellow New England states during the age of covid.
This year, polls have shown a consistently large lead for Joe Biden since May. Without any in-person early voting, there is little voter data that would point to a surprise outcome. Should the results play out as prognosticated, it perhaps highlights missed opportunities by the Trump administration to deliver on some of 2016’s more libertarian promises.
If Donald Trump ends up losing by fewer than New Hampshire’s four electoral votes, the defeat may be the direct result of the administration’s inability to end any of the various wars unpopular with voters.
New Mexico
One of the major narratives of the 2016 campaign has been President Trump’s success with Hispanic voters. While the Left often makes the mistake of seeing Hispanic voters as a homogenous voting block, significant differences exist between Hispanic populations across the country. Miami’s Cubans vote very differently from Mexicans living in Texas.
That being said, organic Spanish-language content created by Trump supporters is the closest this election cycle has seen to the meme magic of 2016. If Trump is able to improve his performance with Hispanic voters, this is one state that could become interesting—and this has become reflected in the coinciding Senate race.
Like Nevada, New Mexico has a Democrat governor who has taken a strong government hand in the face of the coronavirus. While business owners have pushed back against some of the enforcement, the public as a whole has seemed to be more supportive of Governor Grisham’s actions.
The only potential lifeline to the Trump campaign may be the concerns about what Democrats could do to the fracking industry, which is a major economic driver in the state. Still, this looks like the least likely of the three to be in play.
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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/three-states-libertarian-voters-may-decide
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ANIMATED MAP: U.S. PRESIDENTIAL VOTING HISTORY BY STATE (1976-2016)
While some states have consistently seen Democrat or Republican victories, other“swing states” have flipped between the two parties depending on the year...
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WATCH 2020 ELECTION LIVE: TRUMP TOPS BIDEN IN FLORIDA; BOOKIES' FAVORITE TO WIN
Trump now 60% favorite to win at BetFair.
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Always Reps won Florida, but some not the Presidency
Siempre los Reps ganaron Florida pero la mayoria no gano la Presidencia
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ILLINOIS'-OWN COVID-19 DATA REVEALS STATE'S COVID-19 POLICY IS UPSIDE-DOWN
With the elderly still inadequately protected and younger Illinoisans suffering harm disproportionate to their COVID risk, it’s clear the state’s approach to taking on the coronavirus is upside down...
Meanwhile, those same blanket bans have destroyed jobs, damaged mental health and caused many other problems for Illinoisans who are far less likely to be affected by the coronavirus. The CDC’s latest projections show a survival rate of 99.98% for infected Americans aged 20-50.
Outbreaks and the elderly
To see how the state continues to fail its elderly population, take a quick look at the average age of all COVID deaths in Illinois over the last couple of weeks. The daily average often reached 80 and on some days exceeded 82 years of age.
See Chart:
The average age of Illinois CV deaths victims has reached 80 in two weeks
The share of deaths by age group in October also reveals how elderly deaths are becoming more dominant. The 80 and older bracket made up 55% of all deaths in October, compared to just 45% from March through September.
See Chart:
Another cut at that data shows 91% of Illinois’ COVID deaths in October were in the 60-and-older bracket. That’s a major increase from the 86% figure for the period between March and September.
See Chart:
91% of Illinois CV-19 Deaths over the past 30 days were aged 60 & over.
Younger Illinoisans and risk
The CDC recently released their estimates of COVID’s Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) for the country.
See Table:
CDCs Covid infection fatality rate
CONTINUE READING AT:
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LUXURY CONDOS HIRE ARMED GUARDS WITH "SUBMACHINE GUNS" TO PROTECT SUPER-RICH ON ELECTION NIGHT
"There will be officers with submachine guns."
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
IRAN MOCKS WASHINGTON "PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN" FOR SELLING SEIZED FUEL FOR $40 MILLION
"No one civilized brags about stealing," the foreign ministry said.
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
-Over Half of US Voters Would Like Kamala Harris to Become Vice President – Exit Poll
- Joe Biden Makes Statement - Video
- Democrats to Retain Control of US House, NBC News Projects
- Trump Projected to Win Battleground Florida With Nearly All Votes Counted
- $600 Million Sale of Four MQ-9 Reaper Drones to Taiwan Approved by US State Department
- US Cyber Command, NSA Undertook Ops Against Iran Prior to US Election
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