sábado, 7 de noviembre de 2020

NOV 6 20 ND SIT EC y POL

 

NOV 6 20 ND SIT EC y POL

ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco

 

COVID-19 LIVE UPDATES: US CONFIRMS OVER 127,000 NEW CASES

https://sputniknews.com/world/202011071081077139-covid-19-live-updates-us-confirms-over-127000-new-cases/

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ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS

Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

 

Is everything awesome?

STOCKS SOAR TO BEST ELECTION WEEK SINCE FDR, GOLD JUMPS, DOLLAR DUMPS

US equity markets roared higher this week (best week since April) as (monetary handouts) QE hopes replaced (fiscal handouts) blue-wave hopes. Nasdaq rallied a stunning 9.5% on the week (Small Caps and The Dow lagged - only managing to gain 7%!!)...

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-11-06_13-00-04.jpg?itok=VbKyqrEX

 

This was the best election-Week performance for stocks since FDR was elected in 1932...

See Chart:

Election week S&P 500 performance

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-11-06_10-26-27.jpg?itok=UyWpS68-

 

And worst election-week performance for the dollar since Bush Sr. was elected in 1988...

See Chart:

Election week USDollar Performance

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-11-06_10-38-13.jpg?itok=FHJSeAiI

 

And best election-week for gold since the end of the gold standard..

See Chart:

Election  week Gold performance

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-11-06_10-41-16.jpg?itok=t8eififO

 

But as stocks soared, the Smart Money was leaving the bagholders behind...

See Chart:

Dow vs SMART money flow indicator

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm896C.jpg?itok=SBIQHzQH

 

Value stocks were trounced relative to growth stocks after the election...

See Chart:

Russell 100 value vs  Growth

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm9DF2.jpg?itok=nCnKrEUa

 

Banks were rebuffed as mega-tech soared...

See Chart:

FANG stocks  vs Bank stocks

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmC385.jpg?itok=SX1CByXg

 

Vol collapsed across every asset class...

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm89EF_0.jpg?itok=LyqfcFn-

 

But, VIX really plunged this week, smashing the term structure back into contango (interesting that hump remains around the Senate run-off)..

See Chart:

VIX Term Structure

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm5570.jpg?itok=E4qll0bB

 

And the volatility options market looks to be leaning towards a similar outcome of calmness following the storm...

See Chart:

VIX Put  vs. Call Ratio

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmADF0.jpg?itok=5LkWTeZE

 

Despite stock gains, Treasury yields were lower on the week (even after today's rise)

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm3CBE.jpg?itok=F-JeYb3g

 

Intraweek, yields plunged on election night (after an initial spike). 30Y yields rose back to 1.60% today after bouncing off the 200DMA...

See Chart:

UST 30Y Yield   vs. 200 DMA

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmB16E_0.jpg?itok=YOQQtNph

 

The B-Dollar index was up on the week into the election, and dumped after...

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-soar-best-election-week-fdr-gold-jumps-dollar-dumps

 

Crashing to its lowest since May 2018...

See Chart:

Bloomberg Dollar index

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm3E22.jpg?itok=H-1-vsYL

 

A weaker dollar lifted all commodities this week...

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmFE31.jpg?itok=BlEKoY58

 

While  silver outperforming, back above $25

Gold futures pushed back above $1950...

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-11-06_12-20-34.jpg?itok=-J7y44QF

 

WTI traded up to $39 intraweek before rolling over today...

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-11-06_12-07-47.jpg?itok=pcQsje1l

 

And finally, what happens next? 1987 or 2009?

See Chart:

S & P  2009 vs 2020  and 1987

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm2021.jpg?itok=WxL5PDbP

….

SOURCE:  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-soar-best-election-week-fdr-gold-jumps-dollar-dumps

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"GRIDLOCK = GOLDILOCKS" MEANS THE SECOND WAVE OF 2020 QE HAS BEGUN 

... All classic "toppy" signs... but the combo of political/fiscal gridlock and “whatever-it-takes” central bank liquidity means the most likely move is higher.

Gridlock = Goldilocks.

That's how BofA CIO Michael Hartnett summarizes his big picture view of the post-election market, writing that while the 2020 election saw a small 0.2% electoral "swing" to Democrats, Republicans are likely hold Senate [NOT if Biden  win PA ] which is the most important result for investors as it means lack of "Blue Wave", which also likely means no tax hikes, no $3 trillion fiscal excess, no MMT, no disorderly rise bond yields.

See Chart: 

The swing to Dems in 2020 vs. 2016 was a small 0.2%

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/swing%20to%20democrats.jpg?itok=V3kmnu4z

 

It also means much more central bank action is coming in lieu of a "big" fiscal deal, which as McConnell hinted earlier today, is simply not coming any more, or in other words...

Gridlock = QE

Basically, according to Hartnett less fiscal stimulus means either

  • more monetary easing,
  • weaker US dollar,
  • most likely both;

Indeed, the second wave of central bank easing is already underway with new announcements by RBA/BoC/ BoE...

See Table:

How Central Banks are easing again

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/QE%20has%20begun%202020-11-06_15-56-48.jpg?itok=dD2Iereu

 

... meaning financial asset purchases of $1.1tn in Q4'20 and $0.8tn in Q1'21 are set to rise.

See Chart:

Second wave of 2020 has begun

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/second%20wave%20has%20begun.jpg?itok=7vDUgC1t

 

This according to BofA, is "QE unambiguously bullish for deflation assets" even as China tech stocks are coping with higher rates.

This was obvious in the post-election price action:

  • Bitcoin surges >$15000 (2x YTD)
  • 30-year US Treasury yield plunge to 1.5%, but does not break key resistance level,
  • bull market leadership of credit & tech close to all-time highs (e.g. LQD, NDX) and China tech maintains bid despite Ant Group IPO postponement;
  • weak US$ (DXY testing 92 floor) & global cyclicals bid (EEM, HYG);
  • no bid for distressed cyclicals (banks, energy).

And then there is the best deflation (or is that inflation) hedge of all: gold. Not only is gold the best performing asset class of 2020 (ex cryptos of course)

... but the price of gold just scored the best outperformance vs. oil price in 2020 biggest since 1980.

See Chart:

Biggest Gold outperformance  vs. oil since 1980

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/gold%20vs%20oil%202020-11-06_16-18-43.jpg?itok=iZ6A_tAa

 

But one key catalyst is missing: a global vaccine/US fiscal stimulus needed before “distressed cyclicals” catch bid (e.g.  banks/energy.

See Chart:

Distressed cyclicals ignored until rates rise

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/cyclicals%20distressed.jpg?itok=4hCie7vy

 

Putting all this together leads to the following "absolute" view: according to BofA, the surge of IPOs, SPACs, M&A, bond issuance, US housing, narrow leadership areall classic "toppy" signs... but the combo of political/fiscal gridlock and “whatever-it-takes” central bank liquidity means the bank's Q4 SPX 3300-3600 range "more likely broken on upside." Still, Hartnett says that he "remains sellers-into-strength and into a likely vaccine in coming months."

As for the "relative" view, Hartnett is a buyer of global cyclicals (e.g. EM) and reopening trades on the positive impact from rates maxing out relative to the positive impact from cyclical EPS cyclical just beginning.

Why? Because the secular themes are very inflationary:

  • "smaller world" (China war, reshoring),
  • "bigger government" (monetary/fiscal intervention),
  • “dollar debasement” (digital currencies);

... but above all, the key driver to rotation out of growth and into value remains Treasury yields (in Q4 GT30 staying >1.5%, in 2021 GT30 >2%).

SOURCE:  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gridlock-goldilocks-means-second-wave-2020-qe-has-begun

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A HISTORICAL DIVIDE: A 160-YEAR VIEW OF THE GOLD-OIL RATIO 

2020 has ushered in a new era of prices for two historically significant assets - gold and oil...

by Tyler Durden

The market has driven the pair in polar opposite directions breaking historical patterns. This year, as Visual Capitalist's Aran Ali notes, gold brushed above $2,000 an ounce, while oil futures even went temporarily negative in the spring. The gold-oil ratio tells us how many barrels of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) are needed to buy an ounce of gold, serving as a price-based indicator of the relative value of these two important assets.

Historically, the ratio has averaged between 10:1 and 30:1, This year it brushed above 90:1...

See Chart:

THE GOLD OIL RATIO

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/ds-gold-oil-ratio-1200.png?itok=QIEEExhi

 

Here’s a look at the price of gold and oil over the last 6 months:

See Table:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-11-06_9-47-28.jpg?itok=R_USrZaJ

 

Choose these subtitles & read it:

The Gold Story

The Oil Story

As markets adapt to the volatile nature of 2020, only time will tell what the future holds for the gold-oil ratio.

Original Source: Goehring & Rozencwajg: Top Reasons to Consider Oil-Related Equities report and MacroTrends. Notes: Data is as of October 2020.

 ….

Zero-hedge source: https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/historical-divide-160-year-view-gold-oil-ratio

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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS

Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio

 

AN AMERICA WITH TWO PRESIDENTS 

...blind arrogance of America’s mediocre elites ensures that the anger felt by the masses that brought President Trump to power in 2016 will not go away...

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Election game:

GAME-ON FOR THE COUP? 

It will all go according to plan... unless we stop it.

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WHAT HAPPENS IN VEGAS MAY NOT STAY IN VEGAS: WHY THE NEVADA CHALLENGE COULD BE IMPORTANT TO THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 

...problems raised in Nevada raise concerns with shared elements to various states from Michigan to Pennsylvania. The reliance on questionable voter lists and the lack of authentication systems were raised months ago.

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POLICE IN RIOT GEAR ARRIVE IN PITTSBURGH TO BREAK UP PRO-TRUMP AND ANTI-TRUMP PROTESTERS 

“NO TRUMP, NO KKK, NO FASCIST USA,”

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GOP LOSES BID TO TOSS 'FLAWED' BALLOTS IN PA; BIDEN'S LEAD WIDENS IN NEVADA

Some desks called the race for Biden only to quickly retract...

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SOFTWARE 'GLITCH' IN MICHIGAN ERRONEOUSLY GAVE 1000S OF VOTES TO BIDEN; UP TO 47 COUNTIES COMPROMISED 

"Tabulating software glitched and caused a miscalculation of the vote."

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SUPREME COURT ORDERS PENNSYLVANIA TO SEPARATE OUT LATE-ARRIVING BALLOTS    

U.S. Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito late  Friday ordered Pennsylvania election officials to segregate and separately count ballots that arrived after Election Day.

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We wait 3 hours: 7 to 10pm and didn’t come

WATCH LIVE: JOE BIDEN DELIVERS A SPEECH 

The Democratic presidential candidate’s campaign announced that he would be making an address this evening in prime-time but did not say where or what he plans to say...

….

BLOCKED AGAIN?

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BET'S BILLIONAIRE FOUNDER SAYS BLACK PEOPLE GET "MINIMAL RETURN" BY VOTING FOR DEMOCRATS 

"I think Black Americans are getting a little bit tired of delivering huge votes for the Democrats..."

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THE MAJORITY OF ADVERTISING DOLLARS ARE NOW BEING SPENT ONLINE 

In the last decade, digital ad spend in the U.S. has surged...

The Growth of Internet Ad Spend in America

Ad spend in the U.S. generates billions in revenue - in 2019, the top 10 marketers spent over $41 billion on various forms of advertising.

See Chart:

Share of US AD SPEND BY MEDIUM

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/online-ad-revenue.png?itok=BukjqXny

SOURCE  https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/majority-advertising-dollars-are-now-being-spent-online

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US-WORLD  ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)

Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo

 

This may reveals why Trump postpone election via Sup-Court help to re-count votes.

ISRAELI MINISTER WARNS OF WAR IN MIDDLE EAST IF BIDEN WINS 

While Egypt worries Biden will empower Islamists in the region [no sense].

….

IF there is a secret plan for Trump to use election to cover up WW3 plans, then  current election will be postponed because US will be at war with  RU-CH allies (Syria-Iran). The intention will be to take control of IRAN-SYRIA oil + kill RU pipe line almost finished. It is assumed that this attack will be better than the failed attack before the pandemia when NATO sent 48 th troops to borders of RU-CH..[aborted plan]. Now US will make a quick mega-bombing to Iran in alliance with UK and  Germany (the main base of NATO today) +ISR & Saudis. IF Trump get now the failed aims of 1 year ago, he will use this ‘victory” to become a ‘HERO’. Nobody knows the pretext  to be used by US for this attack but it has to be similar or better than the terrorist attack in SEPT 11. IF Trump succeed this time with PENTA-NATO plan, this ‘HERO” will re-take elections  & will win it. What could  be the reaction of RU-CH?  Nobody knows. But it has to be quick and brutal too.. Perhaps  Agst London Banks & Key military nuke posts + Germany’ central base of NATO + their military nuke-post too. IF UN doesn’t convene to stop this war, the US will be attacked. Winers? None. MAD (mutual assured destruction) will prevail. Trump will be chase alive or death. SO: BETTER FOR TRUMP TO QUIT ELECTION NOW (the game is over to him) & salute Biden victory. This will be considered a sign of honesty & decency, if he plans to come back to elections four years after. . IF and IF…

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Imperial threats:

TEHRAN DOUBLES DOWN ON BIDEN AS PREFERRED CANDIDATE AFTER TRUMP "BROUGHT IRAN TO ITS KNEES" 

"We can find a way to reengage, obviously. But reengagement does not mean renegotiation. It means the U.S. coming back to the negotiating table," FM Zarif emphasized.

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Covid 19 is also used as hidden pretext for WW3

THE COVID-19 RT-PCR TEST: HOW TO MISLEAD ALL HUMANITY INTO ACCEPTING SOCIETAL LOCK-DOWNS 

This is not normal! We cannot let our rulers, for whatever reason, organize our collective suicide any longer...

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ERDOGAN FIRES TURKISH CENTRAL BANK GOVERNOR, LAUNCHING FULL-BLOWN CURRENCY CRISIS

Late on Friday, Erdogan fired Murat Uysal - whom he appointed just last July - with a former finance minister, in the process sparking what may be the beginning of the end for the Turkish economy.

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WW3 will be a business too… as usual with any US war

GOFUNDME NUKES DONATION PAGE FOR VOTER FRAUD INVESTIGATION 

"We won't be stopped..."          

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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS

GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3

 

-US Election Live Updates: Supreme Court Orders PA to Segregate Ballots Arrived After Election Day  all votes should be count same way. Not segregation must be tolerate

-Islamism: How NATO Cold War Tool Boomeranged on EU & Why Europe Should Team Up With Russia, China

-USPS Employee 'Goes Public' as He Exposes Alleged Ballot Backdating in Battleground Pennsylvania

-Sputnik V to Be First COVID-19 Vaccine Presented for Registration in Israel, Hospital CEO Says

-What a Glitch: Thousands of Trump Votes Mistakenly Sent to Biden in Michigan County, GOP Says

-Azerbaijani Military Claims Armenian Forces Retreating Along the Frontline in Karabakh

-US Journo Goes Viral With Ballot Counting 'Christmas Song'

-People Take to Streets of US Cities to 'Celebrate Joe Biden's Victory'

-COVID-19 Live Updates: US Confirms Over 127,000 New Cases

-FAIR GAME?  Twitter Flags Democratic Tweets Claiming Biden Victory Amid Ongoing Vote Count

-Biden Says There Is No Final Declaration of Victory Yet, Expresses Confidence in Win

-Nine-Hour Manhunt For Wisconsin Police Shooter Ends With Swift Arrest

-FBI Reportedly Launches Investigation Into Man Threatening Mass Shooting if Biden Wins Election

-‘Shoddy, Poorly Written’ Lawsuits by Trump Campaign Another Way to Suppress Vote

 

-Trump Campaign Soliciting at Least $60 Million From Donors to Fund Election Lawsuits

-US Counties With Highest COVID-19 Infection Rates Overwhelmingly Voted for Trump

-Let Trump have his Day in Court

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