NOV 6 20 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
COVID-19 LIVE UPDATES: US CONFIRMS OVER 127,000 NEW CASES
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ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
Is everything awesome?
STOCKS SOAR TO BEST ELECTION WEEK SINCE FDR, GOLD JUMPS, DOLLAR DUMPS
US equity markets roared higher this week (best week since April) as (monetary handouts) QE hopes replaced (fiscal handouts) blue-wave hopes. Nasdaq rallied a stunning 9.5% on the week (Small Caps and The Dow lagged - only managing to gain 7%!!)...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-11-06_13-00-04.jpg?itok=VbKyqrEX
This was the best election-Week performance for stocks since FDR was elected in 1932...
See Chart:
Election week S&P 500 performance
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-11-06_10-26-27.jpg?itok=UyWpS68-
And worst election-week performance for the dollar since Bush Sr. was elected in 1988...
See Chart:
Election week USDollar Performance
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-11-06_10-38-13.jpg?itok=FHJSeAiI
And best election-week for gold since the end of the gold standard..
See Chart:
Election week Gold performance
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-11-06_10-41-16.jpg?itok=t8eififO
But as stocks soared, the Smart Money was leaving the bagholders behind...
See Chart:
Dow vs SMART money flow indicator
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm896C.jpg?itok=SBIQHzQH
Value stocks were trounced relative to growth stocks after the election...
See Chart:
Russell 100 value vs Growth
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm9DF2.jpg?itok=nCnKrEUa
Banks were rebuffed as mega-tech soared...
See Chart:
FANG stocks vs Bank stocks
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmC385.jpg?itok=SX1CByXg
Vol collapsed across every asset class...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm89EF_0.jpg?itok=LyqfcFn-
But, VIX really plunged this week, smashing the term structure back into contango (interesting that hump remains around the Senate run-off)..
See Chart:
VIX Term Structure
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm5570.jpg?itok=E4qll0bB
And the volatility options market looks to be leaning towards a similar outcome of calmness following the storm...
See Chart:
VIX Put vs. Call Ratio
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmADF0.jpg?itok=5LkWTeZE
Despite stock gains, Treasury yields were lower on the week (even after today's rise)
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm3CBE.jpg?itok=F-JeYb3g
Intraweek, yields plunged on election night (after an initial spike). 30Y yields rose back to 1.60% today after bouncing off the 200DMA...
See Chart:
UST 30Y Yield vs. 200 DMA
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmB16E_0.jpg?itok=YOQQtNph
The B-Dollar index was up on the week into the election, and dumped after...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-soar-best-election-week-fdr-gold-jumps-dollar-dumps
Crashing to its lowest since May 2018...
See Chart:
Bloomberg Dollar index
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm3E22.jpg?itok=H-1-vsYL
A weaker dollar lifted all commodities this week...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmFE31.jpg?itok=BlEKoY58
While silver outperforming, back above $25
Gold futures pushed back above $1950...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-11-06_12-20-34.jpg?itok=-J7y44QF
WTI traded up to $39 intraweek before rolling over today...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-11-06_12-07-47.jpg?itok=pcQsje1l
And finally, what happens next? 1987 or 2009?
See Chart:
S & P 2009 vs 2020 and 1987
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm2021.jpg?itok=WxL5PDbP
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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-soar-best-election-week-fdr-gold-jumps-dollar-dumps
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"GRIDLOCK = GOLDILOCKS" MEANS THE SECOND WAVE OF 2020 QE HAS BEGUN
... All classic "toppy" signs... but the combo of political/fiscal gridlock and “whatever-it-takes” central bank liquidity means the most likely move is higher.
Gridlock = Goldilocks.
That's how BofA CIO Michael Hartnett summarizes his big picture view of the post-election market, writing that while the 2020 election saw a small 0.2% electoral "swing" to Democrats, Republicans are likely hold Senate [NOT if Biden win PA ] which is the most important result for investors as it means lack of "Blue Wave", which also likely means no tax hikes, no $3 trillion fiscal excess, no MMT, no disorderly rise bond yields.
See Chart:
The swing to Dems in 2020 vs. 2016 was a small 0.2%
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/swing%20to%20democrats.jpg?itok=V3kmnu4z
It also means much more central bank action is coming in lieu of a "big" fiscal deal, which as McConnell hinted earlier today, is simply not coming any more, or in other words...
Gridlock = QE
Basically, according to Hartnett less fiscal stimulus means either
- more monetary easing,
- weaker US dollar,
- most likely both;
Indeed, the second wave of central bank easing is already underway with new announcements by RBA/BoC/ BoE...
See Table:
How Central Banks are easing again
... meaning financial asset purchases of $1.1tn in Q4'20 and $0.8tn in Q1'21 are set to rise.
See Chart:
Second wave of 2020 has begun
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/second%20wave%20has%20begun.jpg?itok=7vDUgC1t
This according to BofA, is "QE unambiguously bullish for deflation assets" even as China tech stocks are coping with higher rates.
This was obvious in the post-election price action:
- Bitcoin surges >$15000 (2x YTD)
- 30-year US Treasury yield plunge to 1.5%, but does not break key resistance level,
- bull market leadership of credit & tech close to all-time highs (e.g. LQD, NDX) and China tech maintains bid despite Ant Group IPO postponement;
- weak US$ (DXY testing 92 floor) & global cyclicals bid (EEM, HYG);
- no bid for distressed cyclicals (banks, energy).
And then there is the best deflation (or is that inflation) hedge of all: gold. Not only is gold the best performing asset class of 2020 (ex cryptos of course)
... but the price of gold just scored the best outperformance vs. oil price in 2020 biggest since 1980.
See Chart:
Biggest Gold outperformance vs. oil since 1980
But one key catalyst is missing: a global vaccine/US fiscal stimulus needed before “distressed cyclicals” catch bid (e.g. banks/energy.
See Chart:
Distressed cyclicals ignored until rates rise
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/cyclicals%20distressed.jpg?itok=4hCie7vy
Putting all this together leads to the following "absolute" view: according to BofA, the surge of IPOs, SPACs, M&A, bond issuance, US housing, narrow leadership areall classic "toppy" signs... but the combo of political/fiscal gridlock and “whatever-it-takes” central bank liquidity means the bank's Q4 SPX 3300-3600 range "more likely broken on upside." Still, Hartnett says that he "remains sellers-into-strength and into a likely vaccine in coming months."
As for the "relative" view, Hartnett is a buyer of global cyclicals (e.g. EM) and reopening trades on the positive impact from rates maxing out relative to the positive impact from cyclical EPS cyclical just beginning.
Why? Because the secular themes are very inflationary:
- "smaller world" (China war, reshoring),
- "bigger government" (monetary/fiscal intervention),
- “dollar debasement” (digital currencies);
... but above all, the key driver to rotation out of growth and into value remains Treasury yields (in Q4 GT30 staying >1.5%, in 2021 GT30 >2%).
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gridlock-goldilocks-means-second-wave-2020-qe-has-begun
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A HISTORICAL DIVIDE: A 160-YEAR VIEW OF THE GOLD-OIL RATIO
2020 has ushered in a new era of prices for two historically significant assets - gold and oil...
by Tyler Durden
The market has driven the pair in polar opposite directions breaking historical patterns. This year, as Visual Capitalist's Aran Ali notes, gold brushed above $2,000 an ounce, while oil futures even went temporarily negative in the spring. The gold-oil ratio tells us how many barrels of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) are needed to buy an ounce of gold, serving as a price-based indicator of the relative value of these two important assets.
Historically, the ratio has averaged between 10:1 and 30:1, This year it brushed above 90:1...
See Chart:
THE GOLD OIL RATIO
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/ds-gold-oil-ratio-1200.png?itok=QIEEExhi
Here’s a look at the price of gold and oil over the last 6 months:
See Table:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-11-06_9-47-28.jpg?itok=R_USrZaJ
Choose these subtitles & read it:
The Gold Story
The Oil Story
As markets adapt to the volatile nature of 2020, only time will tell what the future holds for the gold-oil ratio.
Original Source: Goehring & Rozencwajg: Top Reasons to Consider Oil-Related Equities report and MacroTrends. Notes: Data is as of October 2020.
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Zero-hedge source: https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/historical-divide-160-year-view-gold-oil-ratio
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
AN AMERICA WITH TWO PRESIDENTS
...blind arrogance of America’s mediocre elites ensures that the anger felt by the masses that brought President Trump to power in 2016 will not go away...
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Election game:
It will all go according to plan... unless we stop it.
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...problems raised in Nevada raise concerns with shared elements to various states from Michigan to Pennsylvania. The reliance on questionable voter lists and the lack of authentication systems were raised months ago.
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POLICE IN RIOT GEAR ARRIVE IN PITTSBURGH TO BREAK UP PRO-TRUMP AND ANTI-TRUMP PROTESTERS
“NO TRUMP, NO KKK, NO FASCIST USA,”
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GOP LOSES BID TO TOSS 'FLAWED' BALLOTS IN PA; BIDEN'S LEAD WIDENS IN NEVADA
Some desks called the race for Biden only to quickly retract...
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"Tabulating software glitched and caused a miscalculation of the vote."
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SUPREME COURT ORDERS PENNSYLVANIA TO SEPARATE OUT LATE-ARRIVING BALLOTS
U.S. Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito late Friday ordered Pennsylvania election officials to segregate and separately count ballots that arrived after Election Day.
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We wait 3 hours: 7 to 10pm and didn’t come
WATCH LIVE: JOE BIDEN DELIVERS A SPEECH
The Democratic presidential candidate’s campaign announced that he would be making an address this evening in prime-time but did not say where or what he plans to say...
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BLOCKED AGAIN?
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BET'S BILLIONAIRE FOUNDER SAYS BLACK PEOPLE GET "MINIMAL RETURN" BY VOTING FOR DEMOCRATS
"I think Black Americans are getting a little bit tired of delivering huge votes for the Democrats..."
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THE MAJORITY OF ADVERTISING DOLLARS ARE NOW BEING SPENT ONLINE
In the last decade, digital ad spend in the U.S. has surged...
The Growth of Internet Ad Spend in America
Ad spend in the U.S. generates billions in revenue - in 2019, the top 10 marketers spent over $41 billion on various forms of advertising.
See Chart:
Share of US AD SPEND BY MEDIUM
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/online-ad-revenue.png?itok=BukjqXny
SOURCE https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/majority-advertising-dollars-are-now-being-spent-online
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
This may reveals why Trump postpone election via Sup-Court help to re-count votes.
ISRAELI MINISTER WARNS OF WAR IN MIDDLE EAST IF BIDEN WINS
While Egypt worries Biden will empower Islamists in the region [no sense].
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IF there is a secret plan for Trump to use election to cover up WW3 plans, then current election will be postponed because US will be at war with RU-CH allies (Syria-Iran). The intention will be to take control of IRAN-SYRIA oil + kill RU pipe line almost finished. It is assumed that this attack will be better than the failed attack before the pandemia when NATO sent 48 th troops to borders of RU-CH..[aborted plan]. Now US will make a quick mega-bombing to Iran in alliance with UK and Germany (the main base of NATO today) +ISR & Saudis. IF Trump get now the failed aims of 1 year ago, he will use this ‘victory” to become a ‘HERO’. Nobody knows the pretext to be used by US for this attack but it has to be similar or better than the terrorist attack in SEPT 11. IF Trump succeed this time with PENTA-NATO plan, this ‘HERO” will re-take elections & will win it. What could be the reaction of RU-CH? Nobody knows. But it has to be quick and brutal too.. Perhaps Agst London Banks & Key military nuke posts + Germany’ central base of NATO + their military nuke-post too. IF UN doesn’t convene to stop this war, the US will be attacked. Winers? None. MAD (mutual assured destruction) will prevail. Trump will be chase alive or death. SO: BETTER FOR TRUMP TO QUIT ELECTION NOW (the game is over to him) & salute Biden victory. This will be considered a sign of honesty & decency, if he plans to come back to elections four years after. . IF and IF…
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Imperial threats:
TEHRAN DOUBLES DOWN ON BIDEN AS PREFERRED CANDIDATE AFTER TRUMP "BROUGHT IRAN TO ITS KNEES"
"We can find a way to reengage, obviously. But reengagement does not mean renegotiation. It means the U.S. coming back to the negotiating table," FM Zarif emphasized.
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Covid 19 is also used as hidden pretext for WW3
THE COVID-19 RT-PCR TEST: HOW TO MISLEAD ALL HUMANITY INTO ACCEPTING SOCIETAL LOCK-DOWNS
This is not normal! We cannot let our rulers, for whatever reason, organize our collective suicide any longer...
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ERDOGAN FIRES TURKISH CENTRAL BANK GOVERNOR, LAUNCHING FULL-BLOWN CURRENCY CRISIS
Late on Friday, Erdogan fired Murat Uysal - whom he appointed just last July - with a former finance minister, in the process sparking what may be the beginning of the end for the Turkish economy.
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WW3 will be a business too… as usual with any US war
GOFUNDME NUKES DONATION PAGE FOR VOTER FRAUD INVESTIGATION
"We won't be stopped..."
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
-US Election Live Updates: Supreme Court Orders PA to Segregate Ballots Arrived After Election Day all votes should be count same way. Not segregation must be tolerate
-Islamism: How NATO Cold War Tool Boomeranged on EU & Why Europe Should Team Up With Russia, China
-USPS Employee 'Goes Public' as He Exposes Alleged Ballot Backdating in Battleground Pennsylvania
-Sputnik V to Be First COVID-19 Vaccine Presented for Registration in Israel, Hospital CEO Says
-What a Glitch: Thousands of Trump Votes Mistakenly Sent to Biden in Michigan County, GOP Says
-Azerbaijani Military Claims Armenian Forces Retreating Along the Frontline in Karabakh
-US Journo Goes Viral With Ballot Counting 'Christmas Song'
-People Take to Streets of US Cities to 'Celebrate Joe Biden's Victory'
-COVID-19 Live Updates: US Confirms Over 127,000 New Cases
-FAIR GAME? Twitter Flags Democratic Tweets Claiming Biden Victory Amid Ongoing Vote Count
-Biden Says There Is No Final Declaration of Victory Yet, Expresses Confidence in Win
-Nine-Hour Manhunt For Wisconsin Police Shooter Ends With Swift Arrest
-FBI Reportedly Launches Investigation Into Man Threatening Mass Shooting if Biden Wins Election
-‘Shoddy, Poorly Written’ Lawsuits by Trump Campaign Another Way to Suppress Vote
-Trump Campaign Soliciting at Least $60 Million From Donors to Fund Election Lawsuits
-US Counties With Highest COVID-19 Infection Rates Overwhelmingly Voted for Trump
-Let Trump have his Day in Court
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