MAR
9 18 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Econ
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
The global economy is facing a mismatch of fast rising capacity
versus the deceleration of consumptive capability...
Global
Childbearing Population (x-Africa)
See Chart:
Tellingly, the fed
funds rate (approximating inflation) peaked simultaneous to the peak in
annual childbearing population growth. The rise,
peak, and now deceleration in the annual childbearing population has
essentially been the driver for the rise, peak, and now decelerating growth in
demand. The substitution of fast rising
debt for the decelerating population growth is plain. The
subtle uptick in yoy childbearing population change over the next five years is the end of the road for growth...and from there on there
is only outright declines likely hand in hand with negative interest rates and
parabolic debt creation.
See Chart:
Household Income v. Expenditure by
age groups
See Chart:
…
See more charts at:
Source: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-09/most-important-economic-charts-arent-economic-charts
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...and already it appears, some speculators are betting on the peg snapping...
So how to trade a
trade war?
Hartnett concludes, the ultimate China-US trade war play is short
the Hong Kong dollar (which,
as we noted previously, is currently trading at
weakest level since peg introduced October 1983).
See Chart:
For a little better context, HKD has
cratered in recent months... (testing the lows of the peg band)
See Chart:
On the heels of capital outflows and
an ever-growing carry trade, enabled by a hawkish Fed...
See Chart:
Selling
Hong Kong Dollars is a more liquid, cleaner proxy on china outflows (and less easily manipulated than CNY), plus USDHKD has dramatic downside
if the peg breaks... which it might because standing in the way
of The Fed rate-hike-driven carry trade avalanche will be very expensive.
It is a traditional devaluation play (asymmetric to the CHF peg
break)
See Chart:
And
already it appears, some speculators are betting on the peg snapping.
Bloomberg reports that USD/HKD call options struck at
7.8730 have transacted today (upper right corner of chart below), suggesting
that at least one punter sees the chance of the band
….
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Si ocurre
la hecatombe vamos a saber que factores lo desataron: entonces public mi Eco report:
“Cayo el arbolito” que lo leeré con la tonada MX: “ Ya se cayó el arbolito
donde dormía el Pavo Real”. Aun no estoy
seguro si caerá por la debacle neoliberal o por el WW3. Ambos Fact están inter-conectados.
1
1.
Natural disasters, violence and conflicts have led to a record number of
persons being displaced. This has put
pressure on other countries to absorb more immigrants, adding to social
tensions.
See Chart:
Notice the title: ‘natural disasters’
2. Income and wealth inequality continues to
rise globally.
See Chart:
3 Percentage of total Steel
& aluminum IMPORTS: from Canada & China
See Chart:
10. The S&P 500
derives 30% of its revenues from outside the US vs. 21% for the Russell 2000
small cap index. This explains the recent outperformance of small caps and further
supports our tactically bullish view on small caps over large caps.
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/bofawar10.jpg?itok=n46Z9sTO
11. Tech has the
highest foreign sales exposure and a globally integrated supply chain, making a trade war a key risk for
the sector, particularly if the next round of trade actions are aimed at
China.
See chart:
12. BEA data
suggests that imports represent 6% of total operating costs for US private
industries. Using that as a proxy, we estimate the impact of a trade war that resulted in a 2%
drag on foreign sales growth and a 15% rise in import costs WOULD RESULT IN
A 6% DRAG ON EARNINGS.
See graphic:
….
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2-
A liquidity
crisis in housing is on the way. Non-banks
are at the center of the storm...
Nonbank
Share in $Billions
See Chart:
GSEs and Ginnie Mae
Insurance
Against Credit Risk
Another crucial difference between the GSEs and Ginnie Mae is who bears the credit risk associated with mortgage
default. As shown in figure 3, for loans in GSE pools, the mortgage
borrower takes the initial credit loss (in the form of her equity in the
house), followed by the private mortgage insurance (PMI) company (if the
mortgage has PMI), and then the GSE. For loans in
Ginnie Mae pools, the mortgage borrower is again in the first-loss position,
followed by the government entity that guarantees or insures the loan.
However, the Ginnie issuer/servicer — unlike in the GSE
case — is expected to bear any credit losses that the government insurer does
not cover. Ginnie Mae covers credit
losses only when the corporate resources of the issuer/servicer are exhausted.
See graphic:
….
Source: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-09/housing-liquidity-crisis-looms-debt-deflation-follows
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3-
"...capitalism, the
system of government that Millennials’ great-grandparents firmly embraced, may
be in danger of extinction if
income equality continues its present upward trend which is mainly due to central banks distorting price discovery and
serving wall street and avoiding main street..."
Despite wage growth,
women
and African-Americans still find themselves at a
disadvantage.
See Chart:
Older Americans view
big government with suspicion, but generally don’t expect the government to
provide more services. However, the current Millennial
generation expects large government and increased services.
See graphic:
The
increasing income equality is emerging as a threat to capitalism itself as 50%
of American millennials support socialism and communism. Millennials no longer believe that inequality can be solved by economic
growth. They are rethinking the very fundamentals of wealth distribution and
wage disparity. Automation is putting jobs at risk, and Millennials are less
willing than any prior generation to wait and slowly accumulate wealth over a lifetime.
The call
for fundamental change is global. How and when it will happen is uncertain. But
capitalism, the system of government that Millennials’ great-grandparents
firmly embraced, may be in danger of extinction if income equality
continues its present upward trend which is mainly due to central banks distorting
price discovery and serving wall street and avoiding main street.
…
Source: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-09/us-income-inequality-crisis-american-dream-vanishing
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4-
10Y Treasury yields are back above
2.90% - the highest since spiking on Powell hawkish comments - and back into what some have called the 'danger zone' for stocks...
See Chart
….
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POLITICS
Seudo democ y sist
duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s
full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambiarlo
With
Trump's interview with Mueller looming, the President lawyers are reportedly
seeking to negotiate a deal with special counsel Robert Mueller that uses an
interview with Trump as negotiating leverage, and accelerate a conclusion to
the Russia investigation.
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God's work is done...
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WORLD ISSUES and M-East
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K- compet. D rest in limbo
Lies & possible rejected conditions make Circus distasteful:
Big & Small Clowns don’t match
"I'm
not going to walk through every hypothetical that could exist in the world. But
I can tell you that the president has accepted that invitation on the basis
that we have concrete and verifiable steps."
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DEMOCRACY NOW
US politics crisis: Trump captured by Deep state to
reproduce old cronyism without alter-plan
Un-necessary meeting: US-RU-Chi plus UK-France must meet 1st
to set lines for DISMANTLE nukes
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars: its profiteers US-NATO
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
Geopolitics & the nasty business of US-NATO-Global-wars
uncovered ..
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RT SHOWS
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Latino America looking for alternatives to neoliberalism to
break with Empire:
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--Qt 1.para Juliana G: que se hizo para crear reemplazo
a Lula?
--Qt 2. Por que no lanzar la ABSTENCION contra la
seudo-dem HOY?
--No critico a Juliana: la admiro. Va para ella mi
saludo fraterno. H-A
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--RECULA
re-culón que te vas quedando solón
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Que? ‘NO hay huevos en esta casa’? Mi esposa ya me
lo dijo una vez..
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Que? NO fue cierto el ‘Yo también te amo’?
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Si van a
votar y por Manuel Lopez Obrador MLO. Lo dicen Encuest Chiapas
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PRESS
TV
Global situation described by Iranian observers..
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‘US
promises to North Korea can't be trusted’ Meeting has not point
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