JUL 27 SIT EC y POL
ZERO HEDGE
The
Most Important Market Trendline Since 2009 Was Just Broken. by Tyler
Durden on 07/27/2015
The trend is your friend... until
it ends...
Charts: Bloomberg
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When
Will We Ever Learn?. Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 07/27/2015
The lessons of
ignoring history are likely to be learned once again... the hard way.
George Santayana once said:
"Those who cannot remember the
past are condemned to repeat it."
It's hard to disagree with. Over the history of the
financial markets (all the way back to the 1600's) speculative investing
has repeatedly led to booms and busts. In 2007, as the markets were enraptured
with the speculative sub-prime lending and real estate boom.
Importantly, [all] "bubbles" involved an excessive level of speculation around some
specific asset. In 2007, I highlighted (in red) the speculative
levels of excess seen in certain areas. Note: It is important to
remember that in 2007 the financial media did NOT believe there was a
bubble being formed and that there was NO excess in the markets.
The following are some areas of excess that are
suspiciously similar to history.
- Wine Lending (via
NYT)
- Stock
Repurchases (via Business
Insider)
- Subprime Auto
Loans (via
Bloomberg)
- Subprime Mortgages
(via
Breitbart)
"Southern California real
estate agents are flogging a no-down-payment, no-closing-costs and
no-mortgage-insurance product called the "wealth-builder" home loan,
which allows individuals to renters to buy a house and rent it to themselves.
Essentially the borrower takes out a 15-year term FHA loan and pre-pays 4% to
"buy down" the loan interest rate from about 4.1% to about 2.5%."
- Art (via
The Guardian)
- Yachts (via
CNN)
- Mergers &
Buyouts (via
Preqin)
I could go on with automobiles, planes, collectibles and
other completely stupid $*#% all fetching record prices, but you get the idea.
In an economy that is flush with liquidity, supported by low interest rates and
wrapped in a speculative frenzy; there is little reason to worry about a
downturn. But therein lies the potential lesson of history. We have been here
before, but expect it to end differently this time.
The lessons of ignoring history are
likely to be learned once again... the hard way.
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The
Irony Of Market Manipulation. Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 07/27/2015
While the rest of the world's central banks' direct (BoJ)
and indirect (Fed, ECB) manipulation of equity markets, nobody bats an eyelid;
but when PBOC steps on market volatility's throat (like a bull in a China bear
store), people start complaining... finally. There is no difference - none! And
no lesser Asian expert than Stephen Roach warns that we should be afraid, very
afraid as he states, the great irony of manipulation, he explains, is
that "the more we depend on markets, the less we
trust them."
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China
Carnage Continues; Investors "Lost & Concerned" Despite PBOC
Reassurance. Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 07/27/2015
As
Bloomberg reports, investors “are concerned and lost," although
government officials tried to claim the situation by explaining they will
"continue efforts to stabilize market and investor sentiment, and prevent
systemic risk." As stocks continued to fall, the market is summed up by
the opposing views of one broker noting "China won't tolerate a worsening
stock market, so those state-backed financial institutions may start buying,"
and another who warned "it's hard to start a new up move after a
bubble bursts... I don't think they are able to prevent it falling."
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Beware,
The Disappearing Retirement Fund. Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 07/27/2015
Recently, the US Supreme Court ruled that employers have a
duty to protect workers invested in their 401(k) plans from mutual funds that
perform poorly or are too expensive. By passing this ruling, the US
government has the power to seize private pension funds “to protect
pensioners”. It also has the authority to dictate how funds may be
invested. The way is now paved for the requirement that 401(k)s be invested
heavily in US Treasuries.
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Commodity
Carnage Will Hurt These 10 States The Most. Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 07/27/2015
As we’ve seen in Louisiana and West Virginia, the
commodities downturn has had a real impact on state budgets. The
commodities rout can be at least partly explained by a combination of two
factors. Slumping demand from China (i.e. a cessation of the bid which, in the
pre-crisis world, producers assumed would exist in perpetuity) and easy access
to capital markets (thanks to ZIRP) have helped create a global deflationary
supply glut which will likely put continued pressure on prices for the
foreseeable future. Underscoring the depth of the downturn is the following
table from Morgan Stanley:
[ skipped: open the website above to see it ]
Amid the carnage, Bloomberg
is out with a look at which US states will be hurt the most by the
commodities "meltdown." The following map shows what percentage of
each state’s GDP is derived from energy, mining, and agriculture:
Here’s more color from Bloomberg:
In the brutal commodities
meltdown, all U.S. states are not created equal.
In fact, the impact has
been vastly different. The Bloomberg Commodity Index last week reached a
13-year low and has plunged 61 percent since its peak in 2008. That matters a
lot in, say, Wyoming, Louisiana, Texas and Nebraska. Not so much in New Jersey
or Massachusetts, for example.
The top nine states on the
map got at least 10 percent of their gross state product from energy,
mining and agriculture last year: Wyoming, Alaska, North Dakota, West Virginia,
Oklahoma, Texas, New Mexico, Louisiana and South Dakota. Another six got more
than 7 percent, compared to just 3.9 percent for the U.S. as a whole.
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Obama failed: in the aftermath of the 2012 Newtown, CT
school massacre which left 26 unarmed, defenseless people dead, the president
pushed as hard as he could to pass legislation that would enact strict gun
control and further limit the applicability of the Second Amendment. Not only
did he not succeed, but according to a 2014 Pew Research Poll there
has been a 9% rise in the number of Americans who think gun ownership could
"protect people from becoming victims of crime."
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"The
Bucks Stop Here": Why Keynesian Economics Will Get Blamed For The Crash.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/27/2015
For as long as the present economic system lumbers along,
Keynesians will control the levers of power and influence. But when at last
the system goes down in a heap, and central banks cannot restore the system,
there will be a quest for answers. When you live by the Federal Reserve, you
die by the Federal Reserve.
---- What Loss Of Control Looks Like: Chinese Regulator Urges Traders To Rat Out "Malicious Sellers". Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/27/2015 [ We’ve to read this news with CHI history perspective ]
After pledging a whopping
10% of China's GDP, or just about $1 trillion, to its various (at last
check over 40) discrete measures to prop up its collapsing market, among which
such threats as arresting shorters of stock and "malicious sellers",
China has finally reverted to what the communist regime does best to preserve
"order" - implement witch hunts in which the population rats out any
criminals who dare to go against the protocols of the communist party. In this case, the targets are
"malicious sellers" with the regulator adding that those found guilty
of shorting will be "dealt with severely."
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Many have questioned just why President Obama was so keen to
get the Iran nuclear deal done - apparently with almost no real concessions -
in the face of allies home and abroad deriding the agreement. Well, if one were
so inclined, OilPrice.com
explains that Iran's deputy oil minister for commerce and international
affairs, Hossein Zamaninia, told Reuters that the country has already
identified 50 oil and gas projects it will offer for bids - with the government
pegging the value of these properties at $185 billion...
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Chinese
Stocks Suffer Second Biggest Crash In History, 1,500 Companies Halted Limit
Down. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/27/2015 [ Si cae China, cae
la cochina mafia neoliberal of the West ]
This was not supposed to happen… [ said Tyler Durden.]
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The Chinese stock market crash has hit the world’s largest
auto-market hard. For now, China is a dream turned sour for the
Michigan-based Ford and General Motors and Germany’s Volkswagen. The risks
are enormous and will become greater with time. [This
was not supposed to happen either ]
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Who
Is To Blame For The Global Oil Supply Glut In Charts (Hint: Not Iran). Submitted
by Tyler Durden on 07/27/2015
Who is the culprit for the recent record oil stock glut
across the OECD nations? We present the answer on the following several charts showing
oil exports from both OPEC and non-OPEC oil producing countries. Note that Iran
has gone exactly nowhere - it is "others" who are to blame for the
most recent downturn in oil prices.
[ One of the objectives of US-IRAN dial –besides hitting oil
exporters that ruin our flacking business, especially RU, VEN, BRA, EC--was to
neutralize IRAN in the plan to kill Bashar Asad’s regime. Now, saying that “Iran has gone nowhere”, has not sense.
Iranians know that they are the next target .. so they have to take clear
position in the whole game.. I guess they are doing so. ]
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Poland,
Czech Republic Won't Join "Burning" Euro. Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 07/27/2015
"You shouldn’t rush when there is still smoke coming
from a house that was burning. It is simply not safe to do so."
[ En mi
opinion, esa Union esta pegada con mocos.. como el fuego se disuelve con agua..
pero esta vez con agua caliente… la que puede venir de Grecia, los PIGS o de
Kiev.. entonces se irÃan los de arriba ]
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The
Stock Market's Ugly Truth - Only 6 Stocks Matter. Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 07/27/2015
When we first exposed the shockingly dire lack of breadth
in US equity markets, it was shrugged off by the mainstream media as yet
another 'worry' in the wall to climb. It seems, however, that facts inevitably
force their way to the surface and so both Bloomberg
(more than 100% of this year’s increase in the S&P 500 Index is
attributable to two sectors, health-care and retail. That’s the tightest
clustering for an advancing year since at least 2000) and The
Wall Street Journal (Amazon, Google, Apple, Facebook, Gilead and Walt
Disney Co. account for more than all of the $199 billion in market-capitalization
gains in the S&P 500) have been forced to expose the ugly truth
about US equities... it is not a stock market - it's a market of 6 tail-chasing
momentum stocks.
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Concerned
About "Treason" Charges, Varoufakis Issues Public Statement On
"Cloak And Dagger" Drachma "Plan B". Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 07/27/2015
Overnight, the Telegraph's
Ambrose-Pritchard reported that "Mr Varoufakis told the Telegraph that
the quotes were accurate but some reports in the Greek press had been twisted,
making it look as if he had been plotting a return to the drachma from the
start. "The context of all this is that they want to present me as
a rogue finance minister, and have me indicted for treason. It is
all part of an attempt to annul the first five months of this government and
put it in the dustbin of history," he said. It remains to be seen if
treason charges are forthcoming but Varoufakis isn't wasting time, and after
giving unofficial on the record comments to the Telegraph, moments ago he
issued the following public statement on his blog.
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There
Is No Exit: Why China's Plunge Protection Is Here To Stay. by Tyler
Durden on 07/27/2015
Update: CHINA TO CONTINUE STABILIZING MARKET, SENTIMENT,
PREVENT RISKS, CSRC SAYS
As Beijing pledges to remain supportive amid a harrowing
decline in Chinese stocks, China may find itself with no exit strategy for its
plunge protection program. As BofAML notes, "An 'indefinite' holding
period is certainly possible – it’s how the government had dealt with the
last round of bad debts in the banking system, i.e., by shifting them to bad
banks and never crystalizing the losses. But even under such a scenario, there
may be unintended consequences."
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We're not sure what's more ironic there, the fact that an
image which once appeared on Greek ceramics is now the symbol of serfdom or the
fact that it's the "chariot of the gods", who in this case would be
eurocrats and IMF officials.
As amusing - and somewhat sad - as this is, perhaps the most
tragically ironic part of the entire rebranding effort is that one of the
most significant representations of a quadriga the world over sits atop the
Brandenburg Gate in Berlin.
Behold Greece, the new symbol of your perpetual debt
slavery:
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When
Authorities "Own" The Market, The System Breaks Down: Here's Why.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/27/2015
What authorities have created is a facsimile of a market.
It looks like a market on the surface, but only gamblers and fools risk capital
in markets based on false information.
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US
Recession Imminent - Durable Goods Drop For 5th Month, Core CapEx Collapses.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/27/2015
Durable Goods new orders has now fallen 5 months in a row
(after revisions) flashing a orangey/red recession warning. After 2 weak
months, Durable Goods bounced more than expected in June (+3.4% vs +3.2% exp) -
though non-seasonally-adjusted dropped 3.1% MoM. There was an
unexpected drop in Capital Goods Shipments non-defense Ex-Air which fell 0.1%
(against expectations of a 0.6% rise), but mosty worrying is that Core CapEx
collapsed 6.6% YoY - the second biggest decline since Lehman.
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The
Full Audio Recording Of Varoufakis' Drachma Plan B. Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 07/27/2015
Link location: https://soundcloud.com/user5452365
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Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 07/27/2015 - 07:41
- Chinese shares tumble 8.5 percent in biggest one-day drop since 2007 (Reuters)
- Japan’s Economy Shrank Last Quarter, Top Forecaster Says (BBG)
- Creditor teams in Athens to work on third bailout (AFP)
- Tsipras’s Paradox Is Six Months of Pain and Enduring Popularity (BBG)
- Goldman-Backed Instant Messaging Company Seeks New Investment (WSJ)
- Best Buy will sell the Apple Watch on August 7th (Engadget) - when is it coming to Dollar General?
- Senate votes to revive Ex-Im (Hill)
- U.S.-Turkey Deal Paves Way to Set Up Buffer Zone in Northern Syria (WSJ)
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Global
Stocks, US Equity Futures Slide Following China Crash. by Tyler
Durden on 07/27/2015
It all started in China, where as we noted
previously, the Shanghai Composite plunged by 8.5% in closing hour, suffering
its biggest one day drop since February 2007 and the second biggest in history.
The Hang Seng, while spared the worst of the drubbing, was also down 3.1%.
There were numerous theories about the risk off catalyst, including fears the
PPT was gradually being withdrawn, a decline in industrial profits, as well as
an influx in IPOs which drained liquidity from the market. At the same time,
Nikkei 225 (-0.95%) and ASX 200 (-0.16%) traded in negative territory
underpinned by softness in commodity prices.
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Turkey's
War On Kurds Realigns Syrian Kurds With Their Government
By Moon Of Alabama
By Moon Of Alabama
Erdogan's claim of attacking the Islamic State is only
theater and that his real aim is a war on the Kurds who fight the Islamic
State.
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President
Assad Accuses West of Supporting Terrorists in Syria
Video - Full Speech. URL: https://youtu.be/Qy8_NeQh_nE
Video - Full Speech. URL: https://youtu.be/Qy8_NeQh_nE
Bashar al-Assad said Sunday that the West still deals with
terrorism in a hypocritical way.
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Israel
Clears the Bench in Iran Fight
By Robert Parry
By Robert Parry
Israel – in its desperation to kill the Iran nuclear deal –
is exposing its often-denied influence over the U.S. political/media process
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Why I Support
the BDS Movement Against Israel
By Chris Hedges
By Chris Hedges
Israel is not an anomaly. It is a window into the dystopian,
militarized world that is being prepared for all of us, a world with vast
disparities of income and draconian systems of internal security
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Varoufakis
Reveals Cloak and Dagger 'Plan B' for Greece, Awaits Treason Charges
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
A secret cell at the Greek finance ministry hacked into the
government computers and drew up elaborate plans for a system of parallel
payments that could be switched from euros to the drachma at the "flick of
a button" .
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Global Thug
State
By Matthew Harwood
By Matthew Harwood
Its high priest is the president of the United States, who
after 9/11 has accumulated almost godly powers.
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Do We Need
to Bring Back Internment Camps?
By Ron Paul
By Ron Paul
It is probably almost inevitable that the warhawks will turn
their anger inward, toward Americans who are sick of the endless and costly
wars.
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NEWS IN SPANISH
Los medios y la batalla por la democracia en
América Latina. Atilio A. Boron
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La nueva gran
transformación. Raúl Zibechi
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"En Siria, una experiencia de democracia
directa, igualitaria y multiconfesional resiste al Estado Islámico". Entrevista al historiador Michael Knapp y al activista Ercan
Ayboga
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De Grecia a América Latina: Más vueltas de
tuercas. Guillermo Almeyra
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RT-SPUTNIK & LATEST SHOWS
[ Las sanciones a RU afectan pueblos europeos ]
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