viernes, 10 de julio de 2015

JUL 10 SIT EC y POL



JUL 10 SIT EC y POL

ZERO HEDGE




Every nation has a right to defend itself against attack – financial attack just as overt military attack. That is an essential element in the principle of self-determination. Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy and other debtor countries have been under the same mode of attack that was waged by the IMF and its austerity doctrine that bankrupted Latin America from the 1970s onward. International law needs to be updated to recognize that finance has become the modern-day mode of warfare. Its objectives are the same: acquisition of land, raw materials and monopolies. A byproduct of this warfare has been to make today’s financial network so dysfunctional that nations need a financial Clean Slate.
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Rick Santelli recently unleashed his own brand of truthiness on an unsuspecting CNBC audience, that, just like in China, "the central planners are in control" in Japan, Europe, and most of all America. As part of the 3 minutes of lack-of-free-market despair, Santelli drew what we called "the chart of the year." By popular request, it is reproduced below...


1. Capitalism
 2. Socialism
 3. Communism

So the next time someone throws the "free-market capitalism" bull$hit around, show them this chart and ask them how the US (and European, and Japanese, and Chinese) markets are any different from (3).
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All over the United States, rates of violent crime in our major cities are increasing by double digit percentages.  Murders are way up, shootings are way up and rapes are way up.  So what is behind this sudden spike in crime?  In Baltimore, authorities are pointing to the racial tensions that were stirred up by the riots that erupted in protest to the death of Freddie Gray.  But what about the rest of the country?  From coast to coast, we are witnessing a dramatic increase in violent crime, and the economy is not even crashing yet.  So what is going to happen when the next great economic crisis hits us, unemployment skyrockets, and people really start hurting?
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Mapping The World's "Grey Swans". Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/10/2015
Goldman looks at so-called "grey swans" - known market risks that could prove particularly disruptive. From China credit risks to Russia and from rate volatility to Russia with Middle East tensions, cyber threats, and illiquidity-induced 'flash-crashes', the known-but-not-priced-in risks are rising... because - simply put - central bank omnipotence remains the narrative (for now).
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[ The State is a gang of thieves writ large, Murray Rothbard .. True.. if: CAPITALIST STATE is …]

Businesses usually begin as productive enterprises. But almost all have zombie tendencies. Once they reach a certain size, they recognize that the best investment they can make is in politics. They hire lobbyists. They pay crony politicians. In return, government enacts rules and regulations to stifle competition. But as with so many of its activities, government succeeds when it fails. As a new industry arises, the money still flows from the cronies, while the feds get a piece of action from the new enterprises, too. And households? They grouse and groan. But the masses usually love government. They think business people are greedy SOBs. But they often hold the fellows who run the government racket in the same exalted category as saints, TV stars, and sports heroes. Don’t believe it?

[ Who are the zombies? . The list here is incomplete. It only includes all those who despise the State when they are not in power. Once they get it.. are they still zombies?. YES, they are; so the first type of zombie are the hypocritical-political zombies.  In politics, the State is the key of power, it is that all social-classes want –except the anarchist who look like radical nuns that live in another planet-- ..Are they zombies?. Yes, they are. They belong to the 2nd type of zombies: the nihilist zombies:  nothing is positive, any type of power should be demolished, either capitalism or socialism = stupid’s   bull...t ]
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"Schäuble is convinced that as things stand, he needs a Grexit to clear the air, one way or another. Suddenly, a permanently unsustainable Greek public debt, without which the risk of Grexit would fade, has acquired a new usefulness for Schauble. What do I mean by that? Based on months of negotiation, my conviction is that the German finance minister wants Greece to be pushed out of the single currency to put the fear of God into the French and have them accept his model of a disciplinarian eurozone."
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Putting aside the question who wants Greece out of the EU ( ‘Wolfgang Schäuble -Germany’s finance minister-  is convinced that, as things stand, he needs a Greek exit to clear the air’ VS. It is Varoufakis that wanted the Grexit, besides some French leaders like Le Pen and others from the so called PIGS) here I’m going to extract some quotes that seems to correspond to the reasoning of Yanis Varoufakis, as described by The guardian. According to zerohedge the Guardian has released an Op-Ed penned by Varoufakis titled "Germany won’t spare Greek pain – it has an interest in breaking us." Readers can read it in its entirety here but here is the punchline:

This weekend brings the climax of the talks as Euclid Tsakalotos, my successor, strives, again, to put the horse before the cart – to convince a hostile Eurogroup that debt restructuring is a prerequisite of success for reforming Greece, not an ex-post reward for it. Why is this so hard to get across? I see three reasons.

One is that institutional inertia is hard to beat. A second, that unsustainable debt gives creditors immense power over debtors – and power, as we know, corrupts even the finest. But it is the third which seems to me more pertinent and, indeed, more interesting.

The euro is a hybrid of a fixed exchange-rate regime, like the 1980s ERM, or the 1930s gold standard, and a state currency. The former relies on the fear of expulsion to hold together, while state money involves mechanisms for recycling surpluses between member states (for instance, a federal budget, common bonds). The eurozone falls between these stools – it is more than an exchange-rate regime and less than a state.

And there’s the rub. After the crisis of 2008/9, Europe didn’t know how to respond. Should it prepare the ground for at least one expulsion (that is, Grexit) to strengthen discipline? Or move to a federation? So far it has done neither, its existentialist angst forever rising. Schäuble is convinced that as things stand, he needs a Grexit to clear the air, one way or another. Suddenly, a permanently unsustainable Greek public debt, without which the risk of Grexit would fade, has acquired a new usefulness for Schauble.

What do I mean by that? Based on months of negotiation, my conviction is that the German finance minister wants Greece to be pushed out of the single currency to put the fear of God into the French and have them accept his model of a disciplinarian Eurozone.

According to Zero Hedge, Varoufakis may be right about Greece being made an example of disciplinary punishment to avoid  the social collapse that would result from a Eurozone exit, the fact is that the one person who will decide the future of Greece in the Eurozone is neither Schauble nor Merkel but Mario Draghi, also known as Goldman Sachs. Because if Goldman wants more Q€, it will get more Q€.
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The Pentagon has released its “National Military Strategy of the United States of America 2015,” June 2015. This report tells us that war with Russia is our future unless Russia agrees to become a vassal state like every country in Europe, and Canada, Australia, Ukraine, and Japan. Otherwise, the neoconservatives have decided that it is impossible for Americans to tolerate living with a country that makes decisions independently of Washington. If America cannot be The Uni-Power dictating to the world, better that we are all dead. At least that will show the Russians.
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The Greek parliament has approved the proposal Alexis Tsipras submitted to creditors on Thursday. The ball is now in Europe's court with a Eurogroup meeting scheduled for Saturday

If new FinMin Euclid Tsakalotos can secure the support of his EU counterparts tomorrow, the path will be cleared for Greece to remain in the EU under a new program.

According to Bloomberg:
Fifteen governing Syriza party lawmakers who voted “yes” in parliament vote on Greek govt’s bailout proposals to creditors say they oppose the plan, according to statement distributed to journalists.

Lawmakers say proposal shouldn’t have been approved by Greek parliament; they backed it only because they didn’t want the govt’s parliamentary majority to be put into question.


Lawmakers say their “yes” vote shouldn’t be interpreted as acceptance of implementation of austerity measures.
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Janet Yellen Explains How Everything Is Awesome (But Not Good Enough For A Rate Hike) - Live Feed. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/10/2015
[ Is there an awesome collapse? .. perhaps it was the wrong answer to the Q: is this the right time to start a war with Russia & China?]

"It will be appropriate at some point this year...to raise the Fed funds rate and normalize monetary policy," Yellen recently explained but given recent comments from Fed heads and the FOMC Minutes, it appears the real meme is "everything is awesome, we promise and as long as it stays that way we will hike rates just a little bit, stand back and watch the implosion, then stand ready to step back in to save the world... oh, and if Greece, China, US Shale, or LatAm blow up contagiously, we won't normalize policy ever again." Yellen speaks on the US economic outlook at The City Club of Cleveland.
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Greece has already collapsed, and the only real question is whether the ECB will give Greek depositors time to withdraw some of the €120 billion in deposits it holds hostage with the frozen ELA, or if the ECB will admit the truth about the Greek insolvent banking system risking Eurozone contagion. A better question is just what is the purpose of the IMF whose intervention in Greece can be described in one word: disaster. It can also be described in eleven, as the creator of the Taylor Rule, John Taylor, has done in a blog post which can be summarized as follows: IMF Loans To Greece Bailed Out Banks And Worsened The Situation.

[The solidarity .. the financial  “blindaje” to Greek Bank has to come from other sources than IMF and troika partners.. In Economics the world has two sides: the neoliberal market ruled by the empire and their allies, and the emerging new market lead by China-Russia with the support of BRICS nations. .. Greece has to get out from “the international community” of crooked states .. to open their future]
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[Complete?.. ]
Markus Koch said on Thursday, “the 'No' in the referendum appears to be turning into a 'Yes' from Tsipras.". Here, courtesy of AFP, is the proposal in inforgraphic form:


And even as it does indeed appear that Greeks (not to mention Syriza hardliners) will be forced to stomach a "compromise" that amounts to an outright concession, there are some differences between the “old” and “new” Greek proposals. Here’s Bloomberg with the rundown

Financing and Debt
Greece is asking for three-year loans of at least 53.5 billion euros ($59.9 billion) to cover its financing needs between 2015 and 2018. It is also seeking debt restructuring and reprofiling of its long-term debt due after 2022. The earlier proposals were in return for a five-month extension of an existing bailout program for loans of as much 15.5 billion euros and didn’t involve any debt restructuring. 

Tax Reforms
With few exceptions, the Greek government adopts the creditors’ proposal on sales and corporate tax rates. The government is seeking to eliminate sales tax discounts on islands gradually by the end of 2016 instead of immediately, starting higher-income islands that are popular tourist destinations. It also seeks to keep hotels under a reduced 13 percent rate instead of the standard 23 percent.

Pension Reforms
The government proposes implementing a “zero-deficit” clause for supplementary and lump-sum pension funds, adopted in 2012, from October instead of immediately. While it agrees to phase out a supplementary allowance for low pensions by the end of December 2019, it wants to start phasing-out these benefits from March 2016 instead of starting immediately.

Fiscal and Structural Measures
Greece wants to increase advanced income tax payment on corporate income to 100 percent and gradually for individual businesses by the end of 2017, as part of steps to close loopholes for tax avoidance. It also proposes to eliminate preferential tax treatment for farmers by the end end of 2017. The creditors wanted these steps to be implemented by the end of 2016.
The government appears to backtrack on its own earlier proposals for military spending cuts, offering to reduce spending by 100 million euros in 2015 and 200 million euros in 2016. It had earlier suggested to cut military spending by 200 million euros in 2016 and 400 million euros in 2017. The creditors have sought an immediate cut in annual military spending by 400 million euros.
It offers instead to extend implementation of a luxury tax on recreational vessels in excess of five meters instead of in excess of 10 meters.

Labor Reform
Government insists to legislating changes to collective bargaining agreements this fall; creditors don’t want any changes to already agreed labor framework and demand that any changes be negotiated with the three creditor institutions first -- the European Central Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the EU.

Privatizations
This is where the government appears to fully adopt the creditors’ demand for all agreed sales of state assets to proceed, including transferring the state’s shares in the Hellenic Telecommunication Organization SA to the asset sales fund and selling regional airports under terms already agreed with a venture led by Fraport AG, the winning bidder already selected by the previous government.
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[ So the problem in China was not created by the State or SOES system.. but by US-TDA crook traders ]
We already know that markets and exchanges only break on downdays. So does that mean that on days in which algos are indescriminatly buying ES as follow through from China's stock market manipulation and Greece's "hopes" for can kicking, investors are safe? Nope, as one of the most popular online discount brokers found out moments ago:
  • TD AMERITRADE EXPERIENCING "WIDESPREAD" ORDER-ROUTING PROBLEMS - OFFICE OF PRESIDENT: RTRS
  • TD AMERITRADE SAYS EVEN ORDERS THAT WERE ACCEPTED ARE STALLED
Were some TDA traders maliciously selling China stocks overnight one wonders, or did Ameritrade also decide to do a "software update" in the middle of the trading day?
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US media said that “Moments ago Yanis tweeted  [to whom?.. where is the copy of the tweet]  that he will not be present to cast the critical vote supporting Syriza's backtracked proposal as  he will be detained for "family reasons." [the “will be” speaks on a nasty future intention: create division ]
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Greek Financial Advisor Suing "Politically Motivated" ECB For Crushing Greek Banks. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/10/2015 [ So, it is inside the troika that exist contradictions.. ]

The global and European economies are increasingly dominated by bureaucrats taking arbitrary decisions on capital allocation, with little regard for rules or process. The decisions of the ECB to reject the applications of the Bank of Greece for additional funding under ELA could have only been politically motivated, and therefore in clear violation of the ECB’s independence as enshrined in Article 123 TFEU. It is time for EU bureaucrats to stop acting as autocrats.
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Maintaining The Illusion Of Stability Now Requires Ever-Greater Extremes. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/10/2015 [ Here a friendly critique to the super “awesome”  bureaucrat  Ms.  Janet Yellen ]
This much-needed re-set to an economy that serves the many rather than the few is what the Powers That Be are so fearful of. On the surface, everything still looks remarkably stable in the core industrial economies.  But surface stability is all the status quo can manage at this point, because the machine is shaking itself to pieces just maintaining the brittle illusion of prosperity and order. In effect, the status quo has greatly increased the system's vulnerability, fragility and brittleness--the necessary conditions for catastrophic collapse--all in the name of maintaining a completely bogus facade of stability for a few more years.
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[ You can interpreted the way you want .. but do not forget the context –correlation of forces- and the intentions of both sides ]

Follows the full text of a letter Greek PM Tsipras send to the Troika: Commission President Juncker, ECB's Draghi, and the IMF's Lagarde regarding the latest Greek deal proposal.

Dear President and Managing Director

The attached proposal for a comprehensive and specific reform agenda by the Minister of Finance of Greece - aimed at complementing the request for a loan facility from the ESM of July 8 2015 - is conveyed to you following the Euro Summit decision of July 7 2015. 

In this context, it will be assessed by the three institutions to be presented to the Euro Group. It constitutes the result of many months of formal and informal negotiations that the Greek government undertook with the institutions at all levels, aiming at reaching a program that will be economically viable and socially just. 

With this proposal, the Greek people and the Greek government, confirm their commitment to, fulfilling reforms that will ensure Greece remains a member of the Eurozone, and ending the economic crisis. The Greek government is committed to fully implementing this reform agenda - starting with immediate actions - as well as to engaging constructively on the basis of this agenda, in the negotiations for the ESM Loan. 

This reform agenda constitutes part of the wider effort of the Greek Government, towards reforming the Greek economy and public administration, through fighting corruption, clientilism and inefficiency, promoting social justice and creating a positive environment for sustainable economic growth. Thanking you for our cooperation, 

Yours sincerely, 
 Alexis Tsipras
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Losing Control.  By Guy Haselmann of Scotiabank.  Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/10/2015

[In the line of thinking of Milton Friedman: “The government solution to a problem is usually as bad as the problem”,  statement quoted just from the mastermind of State-fasicm in Chile with Pinochet  ...

One wonder .. if the economists that create this monster known as “neoliberalism”  have lose control on it.. and have transfer its control to stupid supremacists in the Pentagon & NATO .. one of them said that Russia create the US problem and is the N.1 target in the defense of our national security..   Then what will be the fate of our nation if they respond to this threat… and what will be the destiny of the whole humanity if a nuclear war breaks up …

When it happens in Chile..  a REFERENDUM putted  down the military … What other option we have in the current time? ]
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Here some observation on the uncontrolled crisis of neoliberalism in the current time, written by Guy Haselmann :

Main Thesis:.
Markets are beginning to signal that policy makers are losing control.  Many second-order-effects of the unprecedented and experimental global actions taken since the 2008 crisis are beginning to manifest.  There are always causes and effects that develop; but they do so at different speeds. Many actions in recent years have prioritized 'benefits today' over 'consequences tomorrow'.  'Tomorrow' is approaching ever more quickly. There is no 'free lunch'. 

Market damage and volatility due to policy interference, or due to the deliberate influence of security prices, are a shame.  Markets should ideally operate with unencumbered fluidity. Markets should operate in a manner where adjustments to new information allow buyers and sellers to rapidly, and seamlessly, find a natural clearing price.  Authorities and regulations should be like good referees in a soccer match; they provide the conditions for a fair match, and you rarely notice their presence.

[However:  ]
1.
  • The beginning-of-the-end of official control happened earlier this year when the Swiss National Bank (SNB) retracted its currency-peg-promise, triggering a 40% move in the G-7 currency in 10 minutes. 
  • In early May, shortly after the SNB event and the launch of ECB QE and EU negative interest rate experiments, the EU bond market became dysfunctional.  The absurdity of sustaining $4 trillion of negative rates came into focus. The German 10-year Bund moved from 0.05% to 0.75% in under a month.
  • A series of Greek policy and troika bailout mistakes - actions that never resulted in a realistic and sustainable solution - are now culminating toward a tipping point. 
  • Chinese authorities that have allowed and encouraged an equity bubble to manifest (and other central banks for that matter) are starting to see how ‘bubble blowing’ typically ends.  Other central banks are hopefully watching.  Chinese equities have lost $3.2 trillion in value in 30 days.  To put this into perspective, this is equivalent to the entire stock market capitalization of Germany and France combined.
….
2.
Too many central banks have entered into a dangerous trade-off:  providing excessive monetary accommodation (despite questionable economic benefits -particularly at the Zero Lower Bound) in order to lift equity markets, versus allowing financial instability to cultivate and amass.  This tradeoff embodies the fears of both FOMC camps: the fear of hiking too soon versus the risks of waiting too long.  There are enormous consequences on both sides - all of which are poorly understood.

Even those who do not believe that US equities are in a bubble (or that moral hazard troubles are rampant) must admit that debt issuance from low interest rates are at colossal levels.  The amount of debt issuance has broken a new record four years in a row.  The last two quarters are the largest quarters ever.  This moonshot of global levels of indebtedness will be an economic headwind for decades to come particularly if and when interest rates rise. 
3.
Maintaining a policy tool that encourages such massive indebtedness (public and private issuance) is imprudent long run policy.  As mentioned above, it mortgages the future while attempting to immediately boast equity prices and economic activity. This trade-off has failed to play out as officials suspected; otherwise debt-to-GDP levels would have fallen.
4.
It is the Fed’s zero interest rate policy foremost that has provided the opportunity for the debt issuance to occur in the first place. As the Volcker Rule launches on July 20th, market making and liquidity will soon deteriorate further; a troubling result of over-zealous regulators.   In addition, a large portion of the debt issuance proceeds have gone into share buyback, further fueling the illusion of healthy EPS improvement.
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The Dow has whipsawed over 2200 points this week… behold the price stability…


[ This is the awesome reality that Ms. Janet Yellen forgot to mention ]
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Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/10/2015 - 07:44
  • Fed Chair Yellen To Speak As Global Tensions Rise (WSJ)
  • Greek PM Tsipras seeks party backing after abrupt concessions (Reuters)
  • France Hails Greek Aid Proposals as Germany Reserves Judgment (BBG)
  • Greek PM says does not have mandate to exit eurozone (Reuters)
  • France Intercedes on Greece’s Behalf to Try to Hold Eurozone Together (WSJ)
  • Frozen Funds, Fleeing Tourists: Greek Startups Feel the Pinch (BBG)
  • Doubts Simmer Despite China’s Gain (WSJ)
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Not only has the Chinese regulator specifically asked all listed companies to submit reports, within the next two days, on the measures they will take to prop up their shares, according to the 21st Centruy Business Herald; but, as we warned yesterday, Chinese police have begun a "nationwide action plan" to work with stock regulator CSRC to crack down on now 'illegal' stock and futures trading. As SCMP reports, police are checking who sold off Ping An and PetroChina stocks in last 30 minutes of trading July 8 while Government was buying to boost index... Who needs QE? This is worse, much worse...
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"Chirac and many others were appalled as I told them in 1998... joining the euro would exacerbate recession in some countries, and that some would find themselves 'trapped in a burning building with no exits' - a phrase that brought me a fair amount of controversy and abuse... I hope the eurozone leaders meeting today will remember that those of us who criticised the euro at its creation were correct in our forecasts. Otherwise they risk adding to the monumental errors of judgment, analysis and leadership made by their predecessors in 1998."
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We have been warning about the 'global war on pensioners' for a while (most recently here, here, and here) but the soul-destroying images of Greek pensioners' hopes being crushed bring that central-bank-driven repression front-and-center...

All mainstream news is painting the Greeks as the bad guys and the Troika as the savior of Europe. Quite frankly, it is really disgusting. Pictures of an elderly Greek pensioner have gone viral depicting what the Troika is deliberately doing to the Greek people trying to punish them for their own failed design of the Euro in a system that is just economically unsustainable.

[The images above] expose the core of the issue of how ordinary Greeks are being tormented by EU politicians who pretend to care about people. This is not a Greek debt crisis, this is a Euro Crisis and they refuse to admit that what they designed was solely for the takeover of Europe at the cost of the future of everyone from pensioners to the youth.

This is just the tip of the iceberg. We are facing terrible times ahead because socialism is completely collapsing. Government employees have lined their pockets and this is precisely the end game how Rome collapsed. It was not the barbarians at the gate. It was the the Roman army was not paid and they began hailing their various generals as emperor and the attacked cities who did not support their choice sacking their own people. Only after weakening themselves, then the barbarians came in for easy pickings. If Russia really wants to take Europe, all they have to do is be patient. They will self-destruct for the Troika cannot see any change in thinking for that means they must admit that they were wrong from the outset.
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE

This is a bull*hit report written by neocons in order to foment war with Russia.
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Those Who Pretend to Sleep   GOD BLESS AMERICA?..
By John R. Hall
Here in the belly of the beast, among the zombie-fascist, gun-totin’, flag-wavin’ hordes of fellow Americans I spend my days in fearless loathing.
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Nigel Farage tells Alex Tsipras: "Your moment has come -lead the Greek people out of the euro with your head held high".
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Sixty years after Albert Einstein and Bertrand Russell issued their manifesto about the growing threat of world war, the globe continues to face the prospect of nuclear annihilation.
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The “2009 military coup that deposed democratically-elected President Manuel Zelaya … opened the door to a free-for-all of criminality in Honduras.”
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Are Big Banks Using Derivatives To Suppress Bullion Prices?
By Paul Craig Roberts and Dave Kranzler
Obviously fraud and price manipulation are at work, but no heads roll.
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NEWS IN SPANISH

Brasil. “El neodesarrollismo se agotó”. Entrevista a João Pedro Stédile, líder del MST
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Peru. Mariátegui y el problema del indio, de ayer y hoy. Hugo Salinas [hoy no es indio, es cholo]
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Colombia.  Encuentro nacional de Paz. Será en Bogotá los días 22 y 23 de julio
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NOTAS con sabor habanero: por un cu-bano

Papa pidió perdón por conquista y colonia . Max Murillo [pero mantiene abierta la chicheria]
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Quien es?: Se cayó de una bike .. se rompió los canutos y encontró su yo: hoy camina de 4 patas
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