sábado, 25 de julio de 2015

JUL 24 SIT EC y POL



JUL  24 SIT EC y POL
 
Remember: all that comes inside brackets are my comments. Hugo Adan


ZERO HEDGE  


The question is: why do Americans not only sit silently while the lives of innocents are destroyed, but also actually support the destruction of the lives of innocents? Why do Americans believe "official sources" despite the proven fact that “official sources” lie repeatedly and never tell the truth? The only conclusion that one can come to is that the American people have failed. We have failed Justice. We have failed Mercy. We have failed the US Constitution. We have failed Truth. We have failed Democracy and representative government. We have failed ourselves and humanity. We have failed the confidence that our Founding Fathers put in us. If we ever had the character that we are told we had, we have obviously lost it. Little, if anything, remains of the "American character."
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Tehran, Beijing, Moscow, Islamabad, and New Delhi have been actively establishing interlocking security guarantees. They have been simultaneously calling the Atlanticist bluff when it comes to the endless drumbeat of attention given to the flimsy meme of Iran’s "nuclear weapons program."  And a few days before the Vienna nuclear negotiations finally culminated in an agreement, all of this came together at a twin BRICS/SCO summit in Ufa, Russia -- a place you’ve undoubtedly never heard of and a meeting that got next to no attention in the U.S.  And yet sooner or later, these developments will ensure that the War Party in Washington and assorted neocons (as well as neoliberalcons) already breathing hard over the Iran deal will sweat bullets as their narratives about how the world works crumble.
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In a note by BofA's Michael Hartnett, the bank looks at the latest EPFR fund flows and concludes that the wave of commodity "capitulation" revulsion selling has finally arrived.
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WSJ reports that according to an internal government review Hillary Clinton, as former Secretary of State, "sent at least four emails from her personal account containing classified information during her time heading the State Department."And now, at long last, it appears that both the FBI and the DOJ are finally getting involved.
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Here we now call market deflation by the sobriquet “volatility”, as in “major market indices suffered from volatility today, down almost one-half of one percent”, where a down day is treated as something akin to the common cold, a temporary illness with symptoms that we can shrug off with an aspirin or two. You can’t be in favor of volatility, surely. It’s a bad thing, almost on a par with littering. No, we want good things and good words, like “wealth effect” and “accommodation” and “stability” and “price appreciation”. As President Snow says in reference to The Hunger Games version of a political utility, “may the odds be always in your favor”. Who doesn’t want that?
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"If investors want complete safety, they can't get much income, and if they aim for high income, they can't completely avoid risk. It’s much more challenging today with rates being suppressed by governments. This is one of the negative consequences of centrally administered economic decisions. People talk about the wisdom of the free market – of the invisible hand – but there’s no free market in money today. Interest rates are not natural."
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"It wan't raining when Noah built the ark."  Howard Ruff .   
Don’t keep calm but Prepare yourself!

The markets have continued to deteriorate, along with a vast majority of internal measures. The question is now, and is the subject of this weekend's reading list, is the correction over? Or, is this just the beginning of something bigger?

1) The Thinnest New High In Stock Market History? by Dana Lyons via Dana Lyon's Tumbler
Read Also: What Do 1987, 2003, 2009 And 2015 Have In Common by Chris Ciovacco via Ciovacco Capital

2) Doubling Down On A Summer Correction by Michael Gayed via MarketWatch
Read Also: What's The Biggest Risk To Investors by Ben Carlson via A Wealth Of Common Sense

3) The Nasdaq Is Flashing A Dot-Com Era Signal by Anthony Mirhaydari via The Fiscal Times
Read Also: The Market Doesn't Care About Your Opinions by Joe Calhoun via Alhambra Partners

4) Magical Thinking Divorces Markets From Reality by James Grant via Financial Times
Read Also: Market Deterioration & Full Cycle Investing by Dr. John Hussman via Hussman Funds

5) China's Record Dumping Of US Treasuries by Tyler Durden via ZeroHedge
Read Also: Investors Can't See Through Market Froth by John Plender via FT
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Other Interesting Reads
Oil Warning: Crash Could Be Worst In 45 Years by Tom Randall via Bloomberg
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The Buffett Ratio Is Bearish by Ed Yardeni via Dr. Ed's Blog
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A Warning Signal For Growth Investors by Cam Hui via Humble Student Of The Market
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Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey Of Equity Valuation Models by Chris Brightman via Research Affilliates
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The Death of Gold... Or Not!. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/24/2015

China will be a net buyer, and a net importer of physical gold for years to come. In and of itself that won’t necessarily cause a sharp rally in gold prices anytime soon, but gold acquisition from the Chinese state and her citizens, as well as emerging market central banks the world over will continue to provide support for the physical gold market. Those that have sold gold in the past few days (and there have been plenty in the ETF and futures markets) as a result of the “disappointing” number out of China may have just caused the capitulation event that typically marks the bottom of any bear market.
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Gold is jumping after the overnight double flash-crash...testing back towards $1100... And another alternate currency is ripping. Bitcoin is back up to pre-"Greece is Fixed" levels...
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If you are looking for a “canary in a coal mine” type of warning for the entire global economy, you have a whole bunch to pick from right now.

In recent months, I have been writing article after article detailing how the exact same patterns that happened just before the stock market crash of 2008 are playing out once again.  We are watching a slow-motion train wreck unfold right before our eyes, and things are only going to get worse from here.

Copper is referred to as “Dr. Copper” because it does such an excellent job of indicating where economic conditions are heading next.  We saw this in 2008, when the price of copper started crashing big time in the months leading up to the stock market implosion. Well, now copper is crashing again.  Just check out this chart. The following is what Goldman Sachs is saying about copper…

It's not just Copper though... Year-to-Date, commodities are ugly (except higher gas prices!!)
It is funny that Goldman mentioned China so prominently.  Even though China’s fake GDP figures say that everything is fine over there, other numbers are painting a very dismal picture.

There is no hiding the fact that trade activity in China and in most of the rest of the planet is slowing down.  In fact, world trade volume has now dropped by the most that we have seen since the last global recession.  The following comes from Zero Hedge
As goes the world, so goes America (according to 30 years of historical data), and so when world trade volumes drop over 2% (the biggest drop since 2009) in the last six months to the weakest since June 2014, the “US recession imminent” canary in the coalmine is drawing her last breath…




As Wolf Street’s Wolf Richter adds, this isn’t stagnation or sluggish growth. This is the steepest and longest decline in world trade since the Financial Crisis. Unless a miracle happened in June, and miracles are becoming exceedingly scarce in this sector, world trade will have experienced its first back-to-back quarterly contraction since 2009.

For those that don’t know, Henry Blodget is definitely not a bear.  In fact, he is one of Wall Street’s biggest cheerleaders.
So for Blodget to suggest that we could see the stock market drop by half is a really big deal.
The closer that we get to this next crisis, the clearer that everything is becoming.
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According to the FT, S&P 500 earnings are on track to decline by about 2.6% year-over-year which is actually about 2% better than what analysts were expecting at the end of June. So this is turning out to be a better earnings season than must expected? Not really. This is just a continuation of the game where consensus expectations are moved lower and lower until companies can, you guessed it, “surprise” to the upside. And its not just for this quarter that growth expectations are taken lower, this happens for growth expectations multiple years out.
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As commodities carnage and credit cracks, talking heads remain intentionally ignorant in there sheep-like mantra to buy and hold stocks no matter what. Ever hopeful that 'growth' and the 'future' will fix any and all over-valuations, even with the current record low number of stocks trading 'cheap', they continues to ignore the facts. As Professor Bruce Greenwald recently told Goldman Sachs, "if a cyclical is trading expensively, it doesn't really matter how fast it is growing because historically growth hasn’t created value for cyclicals. Absent growth, value cyclicals don’t look like good investments."
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We are seeing a kind of flight forward by investors – promises of future returns that may or may not eventuate continue to be highly rewarded – no price seems too high. This is actually a fairly typical bubble phenomenon. It is impossible to say for how long it will continue and how far it will go, but it is possible to say how it will end: in tears, especially for Johnny-come-lately investors.
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Despite a very marginal improvement (from 53.6 to 53.8), Markit US Manufacturing PMI remains stubbornly stuck at 19-month lows, unable to bounce from the weathewr-strewn, port-strike-ridden weakness of Q1. As Markit notes, "a modest upturn in the headline manufacturing PMI belies some more worrying undercurrents which point to potential weakness in coming months," and the slump in unemployment index suggests things are not well at all...
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While Amazon is up 17%, the Nasdaq party is being spoiled by the 17% collapse in Biogen following its aggressive guidance cut. As we noted previously, Biogen is the 4th most profitable biotech company and this 'scare' is weighing heavy on Janet Yellen's favorite short industry as the entire Biotech index is sliding.
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"The letter has been sent." Greece formally invites the troika back to Athens sparking anger, resentment among a conquered people.
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Because of their credit issues, these bonds often trade more closely with equities than they do with base interest rates. Occasionally, however, junk bonds and stocks will diverge with one another. Such a divergence is occurring at the moment. It is often suggested that when the bond and stock markets diverge, the bonds typically prove to be correct, i.e., the stock market usually ends up going the way of the bonds. Is there evidence to back that up? According to our research there is, and with junk bond yields at s-x month highs while the S&P is within 1% of record highs, for stock bulls, that isn’t necessarily good news.
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"Defendants used electronic chatrooms, instant messaging, and other electronic and telephonic methods to exchange confidential customer information, coordinate trading strategies. Traders at some of these primary dealers talked with counterparts at other banks via online chatrooms and swapped gossip."
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Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/24/2015 - 07:41
  • Gunman kills two, wounds seven in Louisiana theater before killing himself (Reuters)
  • Health insurer Anthem to buy Cigna in $54.2 billion deal (Reuters)
  • Murder, Poisoning, Raids: It’s Election Season in Russia (BBG)
  • Lagarde Push for Greece Debt Relief Challenges Merkel (Bloomberg)
  • Fund Boss’s Gamble on Health Law Pays Off Big (WSJ)
  • Wall Street Cranks Up Its Outlook for Amazon After It Delivers Monster Earnings Report (BBG)
  • China's Richest Man Marks Push Into Hollywood With Jake Gyllenhaal Movie (BBG)
  • West Africa's alarming growth industry - meth (Reuters)
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After yesterday's latest drop in stocks driven by "old economy" companies such as CAT, which sent the Dow Jones back to red for the year and the S&P fractionally unchanged, today has been a glaring example of the "new" vs "old" economy contrast, with futures propped up thanks to strong tech company earnings after the close, chief among which Amazon, which gained $40 billion in after hours trading and has now surpassed Walmart as the largest US retailer. As a result Brent crude is little changed near 2-wk low after disappointing Chinese manufacturing data fueled demand concerns, adding to bearish sentiment in an oversupplied mkt. WTI up ~26c, trimming losses after yday falling to lowest since March 31 to close in bear mkt. Both Brent and WTI are set for 4th consecutive week of declines; this is the longest losing streak for Brent since Jan., for WTI since March.
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE

The Eurasian Big Bang
By Pepe Escobar
How China and Russia Are Running Rings Around Washington.
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The Iran Deal Reality
By Margaret Kimberley
All of the treaties in the world mean little when there is only one superpower.
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Israeli media have been pressing hard to restore the military option to its accustomed place "on the table."
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Netanyahu is a master at exploiting fear in a particularly fearful society, the following points demonstrate that thinking people can ignore his claims dealing with Iran.
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Washington has a long and bloody history of sponsoring fascist regimes.
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There is no freedom, no democracy, no accountability of government to the people
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The Greek Parliament approved today – troika “bail out” of € 86 billion. Not one euro of that money would flow into the Greek treasury, to revive its economy.
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Inequality is not inevitable but a choice – the cumulative result of unjust policies and misguided priorities.
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GLOBAL RESEARCH

The Shoot-Down of Flight MH17: New York Times Enforces Ukraine ‘Group Think’. [ UN will vote on this issue on Jul 29.. then we’ll see if UN is en favor of NUKE war or in favor of peace.. So far the UN-ICC didn’t  sanction crimes against humanity committed by US-allies, Israel nor Saudis ]
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NEWS IN SPANISH

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GRECIA. Solo EE.UU. ha firmado un acuerdo similar. La Grecia de Syriza firma un pacto militar con Israel. Ben Norton
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Grecia: Los buitres multinacionales se apiñan alrededor de Grecia. Aeropuertos, puertos, complejos turísticos, recursos energéticos y servicios públicos
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EE.UU. Una bandera cubana flamea nuevamente en Washington DC. Amy Goodman y Denis Moynihan    
[ La bandera de Estados Unidos siempre flameo  en Guantanamo, en esa vergüenza de las torturas y crímenes de lesa humanidad. Real respeto a la dignidad del pueblo cubano supone cerrar la prisión de Guantanmo y devolver esas tierras a Cuba. ]
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Cuba. Cuba y Palestina son 26 de Julio.  Ni bloqueo, ni ocupación, soberanía nacional. Ramón Pedregal
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Mundo e Historia  Caos organizado . Mauricio Castaño
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RT-SPUTNIK & LATEST SHOWS-

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VOLTAIREnet.org 


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PRESS TV 


‘Crimea’s reunion with Russia legal’. Sat Jul 25, 2015 The Russian premier says the separation of the Crimea region from Ukraine and its decision to rejoin Russia are lawful.
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Iran raps UNSC inaction on Palestine. Sat Jul 25, 2015 The Iranian envoy to the UN slams the Security Council’s lack of political will on Palestine.
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US to train more Ukrainian troops. Sat Jul 25, 2015 The State Department says the US military will soon start training Ukrainian armed forces which are engaged in a conflict with pro-Russia fighters.
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Iran FM dismisses Kerry remarks at Senate. Sat Jul 25, 2015 Zarif dismisses as “incomplete hints” recent remarks made by his US counterpart about talks between Iran and the P5+1.
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