JUL 18 SIT EC y POL
LATEST FROM EURONEWS.com
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ZERO HEDGE
"Moody’s, which in 2013 began using a lower rate than
governments do to calculate future liabilities, has estimated that the 25
largest U.S. public pensions alone have $2 trillion less than they need", Bloomberg
reports.
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Historic
Iran Nuke Deal Resets Eurasia's "Great Game". by
Pepe Escobar, via Asia Times, Submitted
by Tyler Durden on 07/18/2015
This is it. It is indeed historic. And diplomacy eventually
wins. In terms of the New Great Game in Eurasia, and the ongoing tectonic shifts
reorganizing Eurasia, this is huge: Iran — supported by Russia and China —
has finally, successfully, called the long, winding 12-year-long Atlanticist
bluff on its “nuclear weapons.” And this only happened because the Obama
administration needed 1) a lone foreign policy success, and 2) a go at trying
to influence at least laterally the onset of the new Eurasia-centered
geopolitical order.
So here it is – the 159-page, as detailed as possible, Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA); the actual P5+1/Iran nuclear
deal. As Iranian diplomats have stressed, the JCPOA will be presented to the United Nations Security
Council (UNSC), which will then adopt a resolution within 7 to 10 days making
it an official international document.
Looking ahead, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani tweeted now
there can be “a focus on shared challenges” – referring to the real fight that
NATO, and Iran, should pursue together; against the fake Caliphate of
ISIS/ISIL/Daesh, whose ideological matrix is intolerant Wahhabism and whose
attacks are directed against both Shi’ites and westerners.
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Paul
Craig Roberts: Greece's Lesson For Russia. Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 07/18/2015
Greece’s lesson for Russia, and for China and Iran, is to avoid all financial
relationships with the West. The West
simply cannot be trusted. The “globalism” that is hyped in the West
is inconsistent with Washington’s unilateralism. No country with assets inside
the Western system can afford to have policy differences with Washington. It is testimony to the insouciance of our
time that the stark inconsistency of globalism with
American unilateralism has passed unnoticed.
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Putin
Orders Formation Of New Military Reserve Force. Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 07/18/2015
Fifteen years after Vladimir Putin first walked into the
Kremlin, Russia’s army is bigger, stronger, and better equipped than at any
time since the end of the Cold War. Able to call on three quarters of a
million frontline troops,
The Telegraph reports, with more tanks than any other country on the
planet, and the world’s third largest air force, Russia retains much of the
brute force associated with a former superpower. But it has also rapidly
modernised, spending millions on rearmament and retraining programmes aimed at
professionalising the lumbering, conscript-reliant force it inherited from the
Soviet Union. The latest effort, as
Reuters reports, Putin has ordered the creation of a new reserve armed
force as part of steps to improve training and military readiness at a time
of international tensions with the West over Ukraine.
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Was Greece
Set Up To Fail?. Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 07/18/2015
What have the bailouts achieved? Well, the Greek
economy is doing worse than ever, and the people are poorer than ever; and both
have a lot more bad ‘news’ to come. The bailouts needed to be as big as they
were to:
1) successfully make the international banks ‘whole’ that
had lent as much as they had into the Greek economy,
2) get the IMF involved,
3) and absolve the notorious -and cooperative- domestic
oligarchy from any pain. And make all the usual suspects a lot more money in
the process.
It therefore doesn’t look at all unlikely that Greece was
saddled with an artificially raised deficit, and that the intention behind that,
all along, was to get the Troika ‘inside’ for the long run. So the country
could be stripped of all its assets.
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The
Fed Is Either Too Late Or Too Early; But Certainly Not Just Right. S= by Tyler
Durden on 07/18/2015
If market economists
have the Fed right, in about 60 days from now Janet Yellen, chairwoman
of the Federal Reserve, will announce the first Federal Reserve rate hike in
about 9 years. With the first rate hike pending, an obvious question is - Does
the Fed have the timing right? If you're looking at year-over-year
growth in Retail Sales, Industrial Production, and Capacity Utilization, the
answer is a clear no.
…
With the first rate hike pending,
an obvious question is - Does the Fed have the timing right?
If you're looking at
year-over-year growth in Retail Sales, Industrial Production, and Capacity
Utilization, the answer is a clear no.
Here's a look.
Retail Sales vs Fed tightening cycles
The following
graphic is a look at year-over-year growth in Retail
Sales overlaid with the Federal Funds target interest rate.
Fascinatingly, all
four of the previous four Fed tightening
Industrial Production
Here's a look at the
Industrial Production picture.
Overall,the picture
is pretty similar to the Retail Sales picture.
In three out of the
four instances, the Fed
raised rates when Industrial Production was either accelerating or at least
not decelerating.
The sole exception
to this observation was the 1988/1989 tightening cycle.
Capacity Utilization
As with Industrial
Production, Capacity Utilization was, in most cases, accelerating or at least
not decelerating when the Fed decided to start raising rates.
The sole exception,
as with Industrial Production, occurred in the late 1980s.
The most interesting
observation from this graphic is that year-over-year growth in Industrial
Production is negative.
Conclusion
Overall, if one
considers Retail Sales, Industrial Production, and Capacity Utilization as
reliable indicators on the state of the U.S.
economy, then the Fed is either way too late or way too early for a rate
hike. Ms. Yellen's Fed certainly does not have the time just right.
If the Fed does
raise the Fed's target interest rate
in September, it would be coming at a time when year-over-year growth in Retail
Sales, Industrial Production, and Capacity Utilization are all decelerating.
Greenspan understood the first derivative, but apparently
Ms. Yellen does not.
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Bonds Are Back: "There Is Too Much Complacency". Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/18/2015
Investors are too myopically focused on expectations of a
steep rise in bond yields and on using central bank stimulus to pile back into
riskier assets. There is too much complacency. We believe the
upside potential for Treasuries prices for the balance of the year is once
again being greatly underestimated. The long end should continue to perform
well under various scenarios. If the Fed hikes in September or earlier, the
back end should perform well. If the Fed breaks its implicit promise to
hike rates in September, its credibility would be damaged: unless of
course, it was due to a significant deterioration in the economic or political
landscape. Either outcome would likely benefit long Treasury
security prices.
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Varoufakis
Slams Bailout #3 As "Greatest Macroeconomic Disaster In History"
While Tsipras "Doesn't Eat Or Sleep". Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 07/18/2015
In an rare
convergence of Greek and German viewpoints, overnight former Greek finance
minister Yanis Varoufakis told the BBC that
"economic reforms imposed on his country by creditors are "going to
fail", ahead of talks on a huge bailout. At the same time, Germany's most
noted Eurosceptic, Hans-Werner Sinn, in an interview
with the newspaper "Passauer Neue Presse" also earlier today
warned that any new aid would be "totally worthless" and "would
never come back." Meanwhile, the Greek PM, who is facing an economic
abyss "does not eat, does not sleep, but he has no choice -- he has
a debt to the people who put their faith in him" his mother Aristi
Tsipras, 73, told Parapolitika weekly.
He also said Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, who has admitted that he does not believe in the bailout, had little option but to sign. "We were given a choice between being executed and capitulating. And he decided that capitulation was the ultimate strategy."
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He also said Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, who has admitted that he does not believe in the bailout, had little option but to sign. "We were given a choice between being executed and capitulating. And he decided that capitulation was the ultimate strategy."
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All
Hail Our Banking Overlords!. Submitted
by Tyler Durden on 07/18/2015
There’s simply too much debt and too little cheap oil for
there to be any other trajectory to this story. We need to all prepare for the inevitability that, as the rot proceeds,
the people of Greece will not be the only casualties of the banks' attempts at
self-preservation. They'll try to throw all of us under the bus before
taking any losses themselves.
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Martin
Armstrong: "Those In Power Will Risk War And Civil Unrest To Preserve
It". Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 07/17/2015
"The IMF
acts as a member of the Troika, yet has no elected position whatsoever. The
second unelected member is Mario Draghi of the ECB. Then the head of Europe is
also unelected by the people...This is authoritarian government if we have
ever seen one... The Invisible Hand of Adam Smith works even in this
instance – those in power are only interested in their self-interest and
will risk war and civil unrest to maintain their failed dreams of power." [ I already
commented this art yesterday ]
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
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The
Brutality of European Migration Policy: Not Everyone Is Allowed to Have a ‘Good
Life in Germany’
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RT-SPUTNIK- & LATEST SHOWS
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NOTICIAS EN ESPAÑOL
El euro, razón delirante. Jacques Sapir
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La canallada final contra el pueblo
griego. Vicenç Navarro
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PRESS TV
US
a ‘repressive state’ for minorities . Sat Jul 18, 2015 The Anglo-American
elite class does not see the value in life of minorities, especially the
African Americans, says a historian from Washington.
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Trump
covered as 'entertainment' news. Sat Jul 18, 2015 The Huffington Post
has announced it would cover Donald Trump's US presidential campaign on its
entertainment page rather than in its politics section.
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Greece’s
new cabinet members sworn in. Sat Jul 18, 2015 New ministers are sworn
in in Greece at a ceremony after a cabinet reshuffle.
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