THE CUBAN GOVERNMENT HAS BEEN CORNERED

THE CUBAN GOVERNMENT HAS BEEN CORNERED

El gobierno cubano ha sido puesto contra las cuerdas

THE CUBAN GOVERNMENT HAS BEEN CORNERED  “It’s not a defeat for democracy or treason against the people who are fighting inside Cuba for the advance of democracy. I think it’s the Cuban government which has been cornered,” said Miriam Celaya from Miami, an independent journalist and dissident, in a telephone interview. Quoted in the art: WSJ “US restore Cuba ties in historic Deal”:  http://www.wsj.com/articles/obama-moves-to-normalize-relations-with-cuba-1418825981 That was her response to Rubio and other neocon senators who promised that Obama’s show won’t pass the Senate. Mirian description of the case is right and is also true that necons won’t be happy to do the job that Obama could’ve done when he had majority in the senate. In my opinion the war-context explains this situation.

Regime Change In Cuba  Normalization comes with American money and a US Embassy.  The American money will take over the Cuban economy.  The embassy will be a home for CIA operatives to subvert the Cuban government.  The embassy will provide a base from which the US can establish NGOs whose gullible members can be called to street protest at the right time, as in Kiev, and the embassy will make it possible for Washington to groom a new set of political leaders. In short, normalization of relations means regime change in Cuba, said Paul Craig Roberts in a brief note. http://www.globalresearch.ca/regime-change-in-cuba/5420956

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By Hugo Adan, Dec 19, 2014

INTRODUCTION

Fidel and Che Revolution was intended to free Cubans from Batista dictatorship, from the US support to him, and from exploitation by big foreign corporations. Kennedy US-invasion was defeated in Cuba and in retaliation they imposed their criminal blockage. The dream for freedom and socialism was thwarted in Cuba. But they couldn’t defeat the dignity of the Cuban example. Kissinger-Friedman plan and their nazi-puppet Pinochet was defeated in Chile, the coup plot to kill Chavez was also defeated in Venezuela,  and Bolivia, Ecuador and Nicaragua -plus others- have now Govt autonomy from the US empire.  It was with the help of Latino countries and international community –specially Russia  & BRICs members-  that pressed inside the UN for lifting the embargo -and traded with Cuba- that this country manage to survive and defeat the blockage during the worst time. La gota continua labra la piedra, dice un refran popular. The US evil corporations are coming back again.. to offer what? .. Reparation for the damage caused to Cubans?,  Not, no one penny.. Close Guantanamo prison and return it to Cuba?.  NOT.. what then?... the crook US companies want to invest in Cuba when the dollar is losing market all over the world. Why now? Latino countries are against US foreign policies and they want to use Cuba influence on them to put down their resistance. (Vicky Peláez  Latinoamérica decide alejarse de los Estados Unidos ). The south is critical for the US since there is a chance for war with RU, that implies an exchange of nukes if happens, that definitely will wipe out the US empire.  What to do in Latino America in this critical time?  That is main point of this article. Read 4, if you want to save time.

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There is different reading of the talking between Obama- Castro, here a different one:

1- THE INTERNATIONAL CONTEXT: No foreign policy can be evaluated properly without considering the surrounding macro & micro context. 

- 2015: The talking between Obama- Raul Castro happens during the economic war declared by the US on Russia, as prelim for a military attack in 2015 (Check: Is US-NATO Preparing to Wage War on Russia? Or: US To Attack Russia in 2015)  Evidence 1: new sanctions on RU were announced by Obama with a story related to the crisis in Ukraine,  though the real cause was hidden,  the fact was that Russia signed a gas deal with Turkey  bypassing the use of dollars & NATO surveillance  (see Pipeline Politics from Michael Hudson http://michael-hudson.com/2014/12/pipeline-politics/  See also: Russia-Turkey Gas Deal Can Save the World ) This happens in Dec 12, when the US-UE tried to take control on RU pipes delivering  gas-oil to Europe. Evidence 2: The US-2015 budget is pro-war. See Discretionary Spending 2015 of 1.16 trillion in which the military gets 55.2% (Open: https://www.nationalpriorities.org/ ). Evidence 3: US sent more weapons and money to the neo-nazis who assaulted power in Kiev in Feb-14. In short: RU is avoiding war with the US and war mongers in our country are begging for war. (War Drums Beat Louder and Faster Between the U.S. and Russia  By Eric Zuesse, Dec 14, 2014. Also: U.S. Congress Now Virtually 100% All-In on Ukraine’s War Against Russia; Americans Are at Least 67% Opposed). RU economy has been weaken by sanctions but they won’t collapse (recovery will be fast) and their military power is intact and ready to respond immediately if satellite inform of any attempt of a pre-empty  nuclear attack. This context  explains the talking of Obama with Raul Castro: The US try to avoid the missile crisis of the 1960s with Kennedy. Cuba is an ally of RU, then the talking carries an implicit blackmail: you better with us, or else..

2- NEW WORLD RECESSION IS UNFOLDING

-2014: The current financial crisis is the worst the world has seen since the Great Depression of the 1930s, said Yale Magazine ( Global Economic Crisis - YaleGlobal Online Magazine).  Europe is in shambles, with the exception of Germany that barely survives. The capitalist economy of efficiency is fake, the stat data on jobs is fake, the economic growth is fake, the only thing that is real is the polarization of society in two classes: a tiny minority of plutocrats vs. a huge mass of impoverished middle classes and poor people.  This explosive inequality is starting to explode and certainly a WWW3, if happens,  will be its best catalyst. 

For younger generations, there are not future inside neo-liberal economy, neither here or abroad.   In the US the fate of the milennials (the 30 years old who stay at home with their parents) is sad (Why Milennials Are Stuck Living At Home With Parents ,Or  Queenbee's Inside the Hive: Why Milennials Are Stuck...). Apparently the US  economy is good, but the reality is high volatility as shown in Empire Fed Crashes To Almost 2-Year Lows, Biggest Miss In 4 Years. In this crisis the ones who suffer more is the working classes (see The Devastation Of America's Working Class) . At world level Oil Producers' Currencies Are Collapsing, the petro-dollar is being de-bunked, most international trade is moving   toward currencies other than dollar. 

Once dollar get massively rejected for Bank deposits and international trade, the US will be in big trouble. There won’t  be enough money  to finance the whole empire apparatus worldwide.  Bringing back soldiers will add fuel to fire, if we cannot assure a labor market for them inside. Keep them outside –besides being expensive- is a Pandora box ready to be opened by war monguers:  that is, to create more wars and keeping alive the nasty business of manufacturing weapons.  Wars could escalate to nuclear if Russia and China interests are violated, as it is the case in Ukraine. MAD (mutual assured destruction) will not work as deterrence policy with crazy people in power.  Sending soldiers will be criminal, suicidal, non-sense. In a nuclear war armies are obsolete, if this war last 2-3 days, sending soldiers for occupation purposes is killing them. They will be contaminated by nuclear radiation & DU. 

If MAD theory and peace prevails, there will be only two choices for the near future, either being ruled by crook bankers, or by states that really serve the interest of the working people, if they conquest power. In this conjuncture,  what the US can offer to Cuba? .. What other than crook bankers ready to brothelize Cuba again, as it was in the timed of Batista? Burdelizar Cuba is not a choice for them. The best the US can do for Cuba is to cancel the blockage, lift the embargo immediately and pay the reparation for the damages it caused to this country. The other thing that is pending,  is the closure of Guantamo prison and the return of  this zone to Cuba.  

3. The meaning of lifting the embargo on Cuba.

3.1 The triumph of lifting embargo, if happens (notice: Obama busca reponer su nula credibilidad –lo que afecta al Pdo demócrata para las próximas elecciones- por eso ofrece hoy el oro y el moro, a los migrantes ayer y ahora a los cubanos. Los latinos de “la raza” no son ningunos estúpidos para creer lo que ahora promete. No ven consistencia entre lo que hace y lo que dice. Debio hacerlo cuando tuvo control del senado.) will be considered another triumph of Latinos against US foreign policies. It is also a triumph of the international community that show solidarity  in the UN like Russia, China and other members of the BRICs. If do not happens, the fight will continue. The south will be -soon or later- an independent region from the North, that is the trend. The only thing positive from Obama-Castro  talking is setting up the agenda for debates on future relations between north-south. The other thing positive is the exchange of prisoners. The worse thing, the dollars and the US Embassy,  as Paul Craig noticed. (males necesarios?.. hay males “necesarios” que causan la muerte. La vida es lo único necesario para luchar y triunfar)   

3.2 Embargo is piracy, blackmailing, extortion and economic terrorism that cause millions of innocent deaths. It is illegal and immoral and it can be considered an act of war, a war that can escalate and makes the situation worse, a war that poor nations cannot fight against a super-power abuser, unless we get the support of other big nations. Any decent deal between nations departs from the lifting of economic sanctions which is the departure point of any truthful diplomatic deal on US-Cuba relation. 

3.3 Once the lifting of the embargo is done, then the next point is the reparation of the damages caused by such illegal abuse. According to most recent UN report the US owes to Cuba more than Trillion dollars. “General Assembly , GA/11574, Demands End to Cuba Blockade for Twenty-Third Consecutive Year, Country’s Foreign Minister Cites Losses Exceeding $1 Trillion.  28 October 2014. Sixty-ninth session,  30th & 31st Meetings”  http://www.un.org/press/en/2014/ga11574.doc.htm

 

If reparation of damages in Cuba is not defined, then the talk will be canceled, not peace nor war in between, just neutrality and autonomy for Cuba, as it is now. That seems to be the best option for Cuba since the talks hide the US intention of blackmailing Cuba (either with us or else.. the “with us” means that Cuba has to help to destroy the resistance in Ven & other countries, just the ones that are helping Cuba without conditions. That is not a decent deal). Nuremberg trial set up one right for all nations, the right to remain neutral during wars, then neutrality is the right of Cuba. The best way to  defend this right is using the OAS and Mercosur to get the support of Latinos on this issue. 

3.4 Normality and mutual respect is a right among civilized countries. At this point in time, the world is with Cuba (UN Resolutions). Even inside the US the Cuban exiled are in favor of “normal” relations with Cuba. There are two types of political exiles in Miami, those who fled in the 1960s and harbor deep grievances against Fidel and those who migrate in recent decades and typically left for economic reasons. The first supported the neocon senator Rubio and the others are in favor of normal relation between US & Cuba. According to Arian Campo-Flores  (reporter of WSJ) a  poll released by FIU Florida International Univ said that “support for the embargo had fallen to 48% from 87% in 1991. Another survey conducted by the Atlantic Council in Washignton. DC found that in Miami Dade County, home to the largest Cuban-American population in the country, 64% of respondents supported normalized relations with Cuba”. 

Normality means cutting restrictions to travel under standard & equal rights for all nations, doesn’t matter the religious or politics they stand for. Normality doesn’t mean the right of visitors to plot “regime change” against the host government. If happens, both states have the right to evacuate the visitor and close the Embassy, if it is involved in such undesirable conduct.  

3.5 It is the U.S who needs Cuba, not in reverse. Although the criminal blockage Cuba manage to survive and trade with Venezuela, Europe, China, Canada and Brazil (in that order) and defeat the US sanctions. According to Europe Stats on trade partners and US Census Bureau on Exports, published by WSJ, the situation is as follow:

4. Possible solution to the issue war & riddle of paying reparation and discard blackmailing

As said before, the international context has been set for war in 2015 against RU, that explains the talking of Obama with Raul Castro. On the one hand, the US try to avoid the missile crisis of the 1960s with Kennedy & get Cuba in his side. On the other hand, Cuba try to get FDI to cope with negative   effects from crisis worsening (Venez  can give to Cuba oil and gas, but not more help if the oil crisis continue hitting their economy, the same could happens with Brazil, and even with the European Union (the 2^nd main supporter of Cuban autonomy) if  they are forced to ally with  NATO, if WWIII unfolds.

Some people can say that the possibility of war is not real. I do believe what top military official do and said about Ukraine, a powder-barrack ready to explode at whatever moment.  “Is US-NATO Preparing to Wage War on Russia?, ask Chossudovsky from Canada and he answer his Qt. “The Wales NATO  Summit in September has set the stage for war. Several military initiatives directed against the Russian Federation have been launched in the last few months including the conduct of war games in Eastern Europe, military training and the deployment of special forces in Ukraine”, said  Prof Michel Chossudovsky. http://www.globalresearch.ca/is-us-nato-preparing-to-wage-war-on-russia/5420177

 

“The US-NATO military exercises conducted in recent months in Eastern Europe and the Baltic States were explicitly directed against Russia –continue  Chossudovsky.  The US-NATO military exercises conducted in recent months in Eastern Europe and the Baltic States were explicitly directed against Russia. In mid-December, General James Stavridis, former commander of Nato in Europe called upon the Atlantic Alliance to “send arms and military advisers to Ukraine to help it fight Moscow-backed separatists.”

“US Ambassador Geoffrey Pyatt, in liaison with Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland,  plays a key role in coordinating the activities of ODC-Ukraine (Office of Defense Cooperation). Defense officials at the US Embassy are in turn in liaison with the Pentagon.  The activities of the ODC broadly defined consist in:  1-The deployment of US military personnel inside Ukraine; 2- Military training and advisory functions; 3- The sale and procurement of US weapons systems; and 4- Support to Ukraine’s National Guard through a protocol agreement with California’s National Guard.” .  The article conclude with this statement “Obama administration is a threat to global security” 

This is the type of US Embassy and activities that will come to Cuba, if the US declares war to Russia, as planned for 2015, and departing from the conflict in Ukraine.

4-IF THIS IS THE CASE, WHAT WOULD BE THE SOLUTION?

1^st. Cuba should try to get financial shield just in case the worse happens. They should request at least the same amount investment given by the US to Kiev so far : 5 thousand billion dollars to start with the trillion the US owed to Cuba in reparation for the damages caused by the embargo (UN-GA/11574). Cuban do not need US weapons in the island, what they need is machinery and equipment  to revamp their productive agro-industrial capacity, to modernize roads, bridges , water-sewage infrastructure,  and the whole building and high-tech infrastructure for education, health systems and sports. Cuba could be the 2^nd country in the South without army, besides Costa Rica.

2^nd Lifting blockage on Cuba without compensation for damage caused, nor Gitmo return to Cuba; nor respect to their political autonomy, then the current Diplomatic-show will ended up in what it is now: an  exchange of prisoners. That won’t be because of Cuba, but because Obama did not proposed this deal in the right time: when his party had control of the Senate. At the beginning of 2015, the necons will take control of the Senate and the Obama show will be over. Any further conversation will be a waste of time since repair for damages won’t be touched. If Obama persist on this topic will be because he will try to use the embargo as a tool to cover up a political-military maneuver (use Cuba in their war against RU and Latino countries) and that start with the opening  of the Embassy  and installing cash-machines to deliver dollars to Cuban citizens. Cuba has the right to open banks for euros, yuan and rubles, not any privilege to dollars, as it is happening  in the south now. Dollarizing Cuba could be way for mercenarism and the road for regime change, as Craig Robert said. Cuba is then a key geo-political place to be controlled by the US, and Obama has no interest in their political autonomy. Latino countries do have such interest and in neutrality. Betraying this expectation will be dishonest, to say the less. 

3^rd Cuba is not alone. Cuba got support from Latino countries in the UN and has the right to request a special meeting to address this issue in the proper way. Political autonomy and full neutrality will be the issue in special meeting and in the OAS, to confront the eventuality of war between US-Russia.

4^th The main objective of LA  -in case war unfold in 2015- is to keep the South out of war, total neutrality means no US military stations in the south and not soldiers from the LA countries to either side. In the aftermath of the war, if happens, US  civilians as well as RU-China-Iran could come to the south if they do not have complicity in war monguerism to either side. So, Cuba and Latino political autonomy will benefit all those who really are in favor of peace. 

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