lunes, 29 de diciembre de 2014

DEC 29 SITUACION EC Y POL



DEC 29 SITUACION  EC Y POL

SELECCIÓN DE ARTICULOS  por Hugo Adan

W-B
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Don’t Just Follow the Money–Follow the Income  Posted on December 29, 2014 by Charles Hugh Smith . But lies are no substitute for truth and fantasy is no substitute for reality. The erosion of net income will eventually matter, maybe not in six years but within six months.
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SPUTNIK
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PRESSTV
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Canadians unhappy with govt.: Poll,  unhappy with the goverment's corruption
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Britain’s poorest at risk of malnutrition because of rising food prices.
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Obama misinformed on Russia economy Russia enjoys “a lot of economic life” beyond oil and gas.
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IMF suspends financial aid to Greece  until the formation of a new government.

ZEROHEDGE
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The Clash Of Civilizations  Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/29/2014, What scares me about the Clash of Civilizations is that the three leaders of the three biggest civilizations – the US (Western), China (Sinic), and Russia (Orthodox) – will misplay their hands and take on another civilization directly or, worse, take on each other, and that will vaporize the Narrative of Central Bank Omnipotence in a nanosecond. The existential risk here for markets is not that China/Russia/Europe/America might “collapse”, whatever that means. No, the existential risk is that the great civilizations of the world will be “hollowed out” internally, so that the process of managing the ten thousand year old competition between civilizations devolves into an unstable game of pandering to domestic crowds rather than a stable equilibrium of balance of power.
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The Zombiefication Of America  Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/29/2014. It has become exceedingly apparent that most Americans no longer think for themselves.  Rather, most conversations in America today consist of an exchange of sound bites, phrases, ideas and talking points that the “matrix” has fed us.  Most of us are just zombies that spend our days searching for the things that we are desperately craving.  For fictional zombies, that usually consists of brains.  For American zombies, that usually consists of something that will feed our addictions. Our society is breaking down in thousands of different ways, and we can see the evidence of this all around us.
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2015 World GDP Expectations Just Collapsed, Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/29/2014. World GDP Growth Expectations for 2015 just dropped dramatically to their lowest since expectations began to be tracked. From 3.40% in early 2013, the consensus is expectating world economic growth at a mere 2.72% (a 20% decline in growth expectations). Of course, there is one thing that is not going down...
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What If The World Can't Cut Its Carbon Emissions?, Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/29/2014. However desirable it may be to protect the Earth from the dire consequences of a runaway climate the chances that the world will agree to cut its emissions quickly enough to stay below the 2C threshold are somewhere between zip, zilch and zero. (There’s also the question of whether cuts of the magnitude necessary would be politically, economically and technologically achievable if the world does agree, but we’ll leave it aside here.) Now imagine that you are one of the prominent politicians – Obama, Kerry, Merkel, Ban Ki-moon, Hollande, Cameron, Davey, whoever – who have publicly and repeatedly stated that climate change is the greatest threat facing the world, that the world is in serious trouble if nothing is done to stop it but that a solution is still within our reach. What do you tell people when next year’s make-or-break Paris climate talks show that it isn’t?
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How Increased Inefficiency Explains Falling Oil Prices, Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/29/2014. Since about 2001, several sectors of the economy have become increasingly inefficient, in the sense that it takes more resources to produce a given output, such as 1000 barrels of oil. This growing inefficiency explains both slowing world economic growth and the sharp recent drop in prices of many commodities, including oil. The mechanism at work is what I would call the crowding out effect. As more resources are required for the increasingly inefficient sectors of the economy, fewer resources are available to the rest of the economy. As a result, wages stagnate or decline. Central banks find it necessary lower interest rates, to keep the economy going. What we seem to be seeing recently is a drop in price to what consumers can afford for some of these increasingly unaffordable sectors. Unless this situation can be turned around quickly, the whole system risks collapse.
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Inflation Watch: It Has Never Been More Expensive To Live The 1% Life, Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/29/2014. While inflation (explicit in price rises or implicit in USD debauchery) over the past 30 years has eaten away at the average American's standard of living, it is the cost of living the 1%-life that has truly soared. As Forbes' "Cost of Living Extremely Well" index  (CLEWI) shows, since 1982, the 1% have seen prices for their goods rise at double the pace of the average joe. However, do not feel too sorry for them, as their net worth, courtesy of various Fed interventions has outpaced the cost of living extremely well by over 4 times.
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Step Aside North Korea: According To New "Theory" Sony Hackers Are In Fact Russians, Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/29/2014 Remember when evil North Korean hackers were blamed by everyone in the administration for penetrating the firewall of one of the wealthiest, most sophisticated, most secretive multi-national corporations in what now everyone realizes was an epic publicity, not to mention, punking stunt? Well, now that Kim Jong-Un has served his purpose, and the Interview has generated far more revenue than it would have otherwise (but not before North Korea got to troll the US, showing it too has lost all respect for the leader of the free world after it called Obama "A monkey in a tropical jungle") it is time to milk The Interview for some more propaganda talking points. And sure enough, here comes the Seattle-based cyber security firm Taia Global, which according to the NY Daily News as cited by the Mail has analyzed the "data" and concluded that not so Lil' Kim was right (the FBI was wrong) and it wasn't North Korea after all. So who was it? Why the evil Russians of course.
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Crude Is Tumbling (Again)  Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/29/2014. While mainstream media desperately played up the fact that oil prices were 'off the lows' this morning as some kind of positive news, that narrative is now dashed to winds of under-demand and over-supply. With WTI Crude prices testing the multi-year cycle lows once again, crashing below $54, we wonder how long before the Yellen effect wears off...
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Brazil's Economy Just Imploded, Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/29/2014. China may have mastered the art of fabricating economic data to a level unmatched by anyone except the US Department of Labor, but its derivative countries have much to learn. And none other more so than one of China's favorite sources of commodities over the past decade: Brazil. It is here that things are going from worse to catastrophic, as disclosed in today's update of Brazil's fiscal picture.
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Dallas Fed Tumbles Below Lowest Estimate As Commodity Crash Comes Knocking Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/29/2014. Who could have possibly anticipated that the one state that contributed the most high-paying jobs during the "recovery" on the back of the shale miracle, is facing recession (as JPM predicted)? Certainly not economists, who have correctly predicted exactly zero of the last 20 economic recessions, and whose lowest estimate for today's Dallas Fed manufacturing outlook survey was 5.0 (with 12.5 on the high side, and a 9.0 consensus mean). Moments ago we got the official number and it was a doozy, plunging from 10.5 to just 4.1, the lowest print since the Polar Vortex swept away economic activity across the US and when the Dallas Fed printed a tiny 0.3.The drop of 6.4 from the November print was also the largest slide in economic activity since October 2013.
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Here Is Citi "Explaining" In 2006 Why Soaring Oil Prices Don't Impact Consumption,  Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/29/2014. "We have heard constantly that oil will slow consumption down as it eats into disposable income. But it remains a conundrum to many that consumption has remained robust, despite oil prices remaining high. What’s going on? We don’t see a conundrum. As we wrote about in September (The Global Investigator, Is Oil Relevant for Equities, September 2 2005), in the plutonomy countries, the rich are such a massive part of the economy, that their relative insensitivity to rising oil prices makes US$60 oil something of an irrelevance. For the poorest in society, high gas and petrol prices are a problem. But while they are many in number, they are few in spending power, and their economic influence is just not important enough to offset the economic confidence, well-being and spending of the rich."
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Don't Just Follow The Money - Follow The Income, Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/29/2014. Six long years of lies has persuaded many that the lies can be sustained for another six years--or even sixty years. But lies are no substitute for truth and fantasy is no substitute for reality. The erosion of net income will eventually matter, maybe not in six years but within six months.
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Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/29/2014 - 07:36
  • European Stocks Drop as Greece’s ASE Tumbles After Vote Results (BBG)
  • AirAsia Stock Drops Most Since 2011 After Flight Vanishes (BBG)
  • Libya's NOC says firefighters had managed to extinguish the blaze at three of 6 burning oil tanks (BBG)
  • Bomber kills 11 Shi'ite pilgrims north of Baghdad (Reuters)
  • Hillary Clinton Faces Uphill Fight for White, Rural Vote (WSJ)
  • Yen’s Slump Seen Longest Since Gold Standard Ended (BBG)
  • The 94% Plunge That Shows Abenomics Losing Global Investors (BBG)
  • Sony's 'The Interview' makes $18 million in opening weekend (Reuters)
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