ECONOMIC & POLITICAL CHAOS 10 DIAS ANTES DE NAVIDAD
This doc goes to those who are studing the current situation & its prospects in 2015
Sources in capital
black
DIA 17 DE DICIEMBRE
ICH-INFORMATION
CLEARING HOUSE http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/
W-B= WASHIGNTON
BLOG http://www.washingtonsblog.com/
American
Public Supports Torture … Because They Don’t Know THIS Posted on December 17, 2014 by WashingtonsBlog What Americans STILL Don’t Know…
US
Targeting Hundreds of Millions of Russian Civilians Posted
on December 17, 2014 by Robert Barsocchini
Inequality
In U.S. Today Is Worse than in Apartheid South Africa or 1774 Slaveholding
Colonial America … and TWICE As Bad As In Ancient Slaveholding Rome Posted
on December 17, 2014 by WashingtonsBlog Even Slaves Had It Better
New
Poll Finds 59% Of Americans Support Post-9/11 Torture – Propaganda, Cultural
Sickness, Or Both? Posted on December 17, 2014 by WashingtonsBlog Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty
Blitzkrieg blog
Here’s
What’s Wrong with Corporate America–and the U.S. Economy Posted
on December 17, 2014 by Charles Hugh Smith
How U.S.
Torture Led to the Rise of ISIS Posted on December 17, 2014 by WashingtonsBlog Nice Job Creating Terrorists, You Morons …
RIA
SPUTNIK http://mundo.sputniknews.com/
PRESSTV http://www.presstv.com/
ZERO HEDGE http://www.zerohedge.com/
China
Prepares To Bailout Russia Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/17/2014 The South China Morning Post then hinted in a
story entitled "Russia may seek China help to deal with crisis," which which noted that Russia could fall
back on its 150 billion yuan ($24 billion) currency swap agreement with China
if the ruble continues to plunge, that was signed in October. Furthermore, two
bankers close to the PBOC reportedly said the swap-line was meant to reduce the
role of the US dollar if China and Russia need to help each other overcome a
liquidity squeeze. Is 'isolated' Russia about to be bailed out by
the world's largest economy China?
----
59%
Of Americans Support Post-9/11 Torture – Propaganda, Cultural Sickness, Or
Both? Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/17/2014
----
IMF
Now Ready To Slam The Door On The U.S. And The Dollar Submitted
by Tyler Durden on 12/17/2014 This is it, folks; this is the endgame
right in front of our faces. The year of 2014 is the new 2007, with all the
negative potential but 100 times more explosive going into 2015. Our nation
has wallowed in slowly degrading financial conditions for years, hidden by fake
economic statistics and manipulated stock prices. All of it has been a prelude
to a much more frenetic and shocking event. We expect a hailstorm of
geopolitical crises over the next year to provide cover for the shift away from
the dollar. Ultimately, the death of the dollar will be hailed in the
mainstream as a “good and necessary thing.” They will call it “karma.” They
will call it “progress.” They will even call it “decentralization” and a
success for the free market. But it will not feel like a positive
development for the American public, who will suffer greatly as the dollar
crumbles.
----
"Neoconica"
- America For The New Millennium Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/17/2014 "...so many still maintain that
America is the greatest nation in the world. They swear that
America represents all that is good; freedom, democracy, merit based
capitalism and the rights of the individual. That is true America does
represent such things. However, it is fraudulent to consider our
current nation America. America was a concept that promoted all that
is good. And so it would seem that the nation in which they find
themselves cannot be America. Their nation today represents the will
of the political class at all costs, period. Their sole motivation is
themselves. Very different from America. And so perhaps a
renaming on the nation is required, at least until or if the people decide
to take it back and reintroduce the world to the concept that is America for as
discussed below you cannot destroy a concept and so there is hope to bring her
back. But until then we need a name for this geographic region and its
new societal system... It seems"Neoconica" is most
fitting."
----
Mortgage
Applications Tumble As Citi Warns Oil-Drop Risks Housing/Jobs Slump Submitted
by Tyler Durden on 12/17/2014
"consistency"
----
President
Obama "Normalizes" Relations With Cuba, Opens Diplomatic Channels;
USAID Chief Resigns - Live Feed Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/17/2014
- Citigroup is pleased: Obama signs $1.1 trillion government spending bill (Reuters)
- Oil holds below $60 as OPEC, Russia keep pumping (Reuters)
- 5 Things to watch at the December Fed Meeting (WSJ)
- Russia Tries Emergency Steps for 2nd Day to Stem Ruble Rout (BBG)
- Ruble crisis could shake Putin's grip on power (Reuters)
- Apple Curbs Russia Sales as McDonald’s Lifts Prices (BBG)
- Traders Betting Russia’s Next Move Will Be to Sell Gold (BBG)
- China Warms to a More Flexible Yuan (WSJ)
----
Crude
Continues Slide, Ruble Stabilizes, US Futures Rebound As Global Stocks Slump:
All Eyes On Yellen Submitted by
Tyler Durden on 12/17/2014
====
SIT ECON y POLITCA 1 SEMANA ANTES DE NAVIDAD
From Dec 25 down to Dec
18
Sources in capital
black
----
OTHER THAN ECONOMICS
& POLITICS
RIA-sputnik http://mundo.sputniknews.com/
----
Lima 2014: Climate Change – Humans Remain the Same By Anis H. Bajrektarevic
W-B WASHINGTON BLOG http://www.washingtonsblog.com/
FROM DEC 25 DOWN
Ukraine’s
Government Is Starving Residents of the Breakaway Region Posted on December 25, 2014 by Eric Zuesse.
U.S.
War Against Russia Is Now Against Hungary Too Posted on December 25, 2014 by Eric Zuesse. Hungary has decided
to align itself with Russia against the United States.
----
DID THE SAUDIS AND THE US COLLUDE
IN DROPPING OIL PRICES? Posted on December 25, 2014 IN WashingtonsBlog By Andrew Topf via OilPrice.com http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2014/12/saudis-us-collude-dropping-oil-prices.html#disqus_thread COMMENTS: Jo • 2 hours ago Yep you are right and here's Michel Hudson. There is a transcript of this show. http://vineyardsaker.blogspot....
---- Jo • 9 hours ago
"Russia has less
than $700 million in debt, the US has over $18 trillion; Russian debt is about
15% of GDP, the US runs at over 100% of GDP; Russia runs a budget surplus, the
US runs a burgeoning deficit; Russia has gold to back it currency, the US now
only has the military to back its fiat and increasingly widely shunned
“dollar;” Russia has the largest natural resources in the world, the US has
depleted or ruined most of its natural resources. With which of these two countries does the
rest of the world want to conduct business?"
----
I
Call BS on Projections of a Decade of $20/Barrel Oil Posted
on December 24, 2014 by Charles Hugh Smith Here his conclusion: An analysis of 7
factors that influence oil markets (EIA)
7. Saudi Arabia and other major oil exporters derive a
significant percentage of their national incomes (public and private) from
investments in the global financial system–the same financial system that is
being destabilized by crashing oil prices.
8. The oil exporters’
ability to control a global financial meltdown triggered by crashing oil prices
is nil.
All of which is to say that the ability of oil exporters
to trigger a short-term collapse in price does not
automatically translate into an ability to control the financial conflagration
such a crash ignites, or an ability to effortlessly maintain oil at $20/barrel for
years.
[TO ME: a sudden rise up in oil prices will create in the US
the end or burst of the automobile industry and new commodity prices in markets
will generate violent civil unrest. Is it possible to manipulate the rise in
oil prices?. Yes, it is and I will come on this issue. At that time RU will
decide on Ukraine]
----
Latin
America Has a Few Lessons for the US On Torture Posted on December 24, 2014 by WashingtonsBlog By Andrew Self, La Trobe University
----
“It’s Just A Matter of Time Before [Torture] Spills
Back Into Domestic Territory. Historically, It Always Has” Posted on December 24, 2014 by WashingtonsBlog War
Always Comes Home
----
Drone
Strikes: Are They Obama’s Enhanced Interrogation Techniques? Posted
on December 24, 2014 by WashingtonsBlog By Jeff Bachman, American University
----
Will the Fed
Intervene in the Oil Market? Posted on December 23, 2014 by Charles Hugh Smith In a larger sense, the Fed is already
intervening in the oil sector via its zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) and its
unlimited liquidity for financial speculation. Should the Fed turn the dial of
intervention up by buying futures and oil-based bonds, it is not a new
policy–it is simply a matter of degree. The intervention has been going on in
every sector since 2008. The implosion of the oil sector is simply the latest
outbreak of consequence following cause.
----
Why the Bad Guys Keep
Winning Posted on December 23, 2014 by WashingtonsBlog .- Reason Number 1: Falling for the Big Fib .-
Reason Number 2: The Urge to Defend Bad Systems.- Reason Number 3: the Assumption
that the Super-Elite Are “Like Us”.- Reason Number 4: The Life-Or-Death
Struggle to Defend Our Beliefs.- Reason Number 5: Forgetting that We Don’t Live
in Tribes.- Reason Number 6: Pretending We Know.- Reason Number 7: Apathy.- Reason
Number 8: The CIA and Other Government Agencies Control Media, Movies, TV and
Video Games.-
----
There
Is Hope In Understanding That A Great Economic Collapse Is Coming Posted
on December 22, 2014 by WashingtonsBlog By Michael
Snyder. George Orwell once said that “during times of
universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act“.
----
CIA Wanted To Make Sure The People It
Savagely Tortured Would Never Be Able to Tell Anyone Posted on December 22, 2014 by WashingtonsBlog “We Need To Get Reasonable Assurances That
[the Victim] Will Remain In Isolation And Incommunicado For The Remainder Of
His Life”
----
----
Understanding the Aggressive US Stance
towards Russia Posted on December 21, 2014 by Robert Barsocchini
----
Is US-NATO Preparing to Wage War on Russia? Posted on December 21, 2014 by WashingtonsBlog By Prof Michel Chossudovsky
----
Russian Roulette: Taxpayers Could Be on the
Hook for Trillions in Oil Derivatives Posted
on December 20, 2014 by WashingtonsBlog By Ellen Brown. The sudden dramatic collapse in the price
of oil appears to be an act of geopolitical warfare against Russia. The result
could be trillions of dollars in oil derivative losses; and the FDIC could be
liable, following repeal of key portions of the Dodd-Frank Act last weekend.
The short sellers were saved, but the derivatives banks will still get
killed if oil prices don’t go back up soon. At least they would have been
killed before the bailout ban was lifted. Now, it seems, that burden could fall
on depositors and taxpayers. Did the Obama administration make a deal with the
big derivatives banks to save them from Kerry’s clandestine economic warfare at
taxpayer expense?
One solution is : Reinstating the Glass-Steagall Act is supported not
only by Elizabeth Warren and others on the left but by prominent voices such as
David Stockman’s on the right. Another alternative for protecting our funds
from Wall Street gambling can be done at the local level. Our state and local
governments can establish publicly-owned banks; and our monies, public and
private, can be moved into them.
----
Head of Stratfor, ‘Private CIA,’ Says
Overthrow of Yanukovych Was ‘The Most Blatant Coup in History’ Posted on December 20, 2014 by Eric Zuesse.
----
We’ve Known for 1,700 Years that Torture
Produces False Confessions Posted
on December 19, 2014 by WashingtonsBlog So, Torture Doesn’t Work
----
Posted on December 18, 2014 by WashingtonsBlog Previously-leaked documents showed that the
CIA warned Obama that funding rebels doesn’t work … but Obama decided to fund
the Syrian rebels anyway for cynical political gain.
Top CIA officers say that drone strikes
increase terrorism (and see this). Indeed, virtually all aspects
of the American “war on terror” strategy creates more
terrorists and weakens our national security. And see this.
Now, a leaked internal CIA memo shows that the Agency told
Obama that drone strikes might be counter-productive. The Sydney Morning
Herald reports
Common Dreams notes: Best
Practices in Counterinsurgency: Making High-Value Targeting Operations an
Effective Counterinsurgency Toolocument (pdf).
----
What Is the
Gold-Oil Ratio Telling Us? Posted
on December 18, 2014 by Charles Hugh Smith One way to establish if a commodity or asset
is relatively expensive or inexpensive is to price it in something other than a
fiat currency–for example, gold. Gold goes up and down in value relative to
other commodities and fiat currencies, so it is itself a volatile yardstick.
Nonetheless, it provides a useful measure of the relative value of gold and
whatever is being measured in gold–in this case, oil.
Based on historical gold-oil ratios, oil appears extraordinarily
cheap right now. Could oil fall further? Of course. Could gold go up or down?
Of course. There are a great many factors that influence the ratio, which is
simply a short-hand method of measuring the relative value of two important
commodities.
====
----
PRESSTV http://www.presstv.com/
Form day 25
ZEROHEDGE http://www.zerohedge.com/
Russia,
China, Or America? "An Oppressed People Ruled By Others For Others" Submitted
by Tyler Durden on 12/25/2014 "I find it so
disturbingly illogical that we Americans are willing to die so that our political
class can enjoy ill gotten riches and power yet we cower when it comes to
defending our great nation against the political class, something our founding
fathers pleaded for us to do. The truth, which the political
class legislates so hard for us to overlook, is that they are powerless
without us. It is us that fight their fights, fund their wars and
enforce their laws that enslave us yet we bow down and call them Mr. President
and Madame Secretary. And so I ask each and everyone of you, when will we
wake up and recognize that we are the power and the wealth and that
the political class has only managed, through deception, to harness our
strengths and pass them off as their own? For until that day of
awakening, we will continue to live as an oppressed people ruled by others for
others."
----
Correcting
Scrooge’s Economics Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 12/25/2014 As Charles Dickens himself admits, Ebenezer Scrooge is a thoroughly peaceful man, guilty of no true crime, who
has robbed no one. Therefore, we must conclude that his wealth is a sign of his
ability to please at least some people, and as Michael Levin notes:
“Dickens doesn't mention Scrooge's satisfied customers, but there must have
been plenty of them for Scrooge to have gotten so rich.” As a miser and
businessman, Scrooge provides numerous valuable services to the community
including, as Walter Block has shown, driving down prices and making
liquidity available to those who, unlike the wrongly maligned misers, have been
either unwilling or unable to save in comparable amounts. His business prowess
notwithstanding, however, a closer look at Scrooge’s economics suggests some
significant blind spots in several areas. Scrooge, as displayed in many of
his comments and observations, misunderstands some key economics concepts.
----
SF
Fed Warns US Equity Valuations Will Be Cut In Half In Next Decade Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 12/25/2014 When "the retirement of the baby boomers is
expected to severely cut U.S. stock values in the near future," is
the ominous initial sentence from no lesser maintainer-of-the-status-quo than
the San Francisco Fed's research department, one begins to recognize the
Federal Reserve's overall need to hyper-inflate asset prices at whatever cost
for fear of the 'wealth' destruction looming. As the following study reports,
projected declines in stock values - based on the latest demographic and valuation
data - have become even more severe. Our current estimate suggests that the
P/E ratio of the U.S. equity market could be halved by 2025 relative to its
2013 level.
----
Ruble
Rallies 34% After Biggest Russian Intervention In 5 Years Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 12/25/2014 Since the
Russian Ruble troughed at almost 80 RUB/USD, it has rallied an impressive
34% erasing most of the dramatic devaluation of December. However, as The
CBR just announced, this 'strength' came at a price. Russia burned through
$15.7 billion of reserves in the week ending Dec 19th - the biggest
percentage weekly drop in reserves since Jan 2009, leaving reserves below $400
billion (still a significant amount) for the first time since Aug 2009. While
CBR explained much of this will come back as repo trades mature, Vladimir
Putin turned inward, blaming the government for "defects" in
restructuring the economy.
----
China's
Christmas Present To The World: Beijing Eases Again, Sets Non-Bank Deposit
Reserve To Zero Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 12/25/2014 In another Christmas surprise, China once again
decided to adjust the cost of money, only this time instead of hiking, it
eased, and in an effort to shore up the world's second-largest economy, China
Business News reported that the PBOC will waive reserve requirements for
non-bank deposits. As the WSJ adds, at a meeting with big financial
institutions on Wednesday, the People's Bank of China told participants that
they will soon be able to add deposits from nonbank financial institutions to
their calculations of their loan-to-deposit ratios, according to the executives.
The move would add considerably to the banks' deposits and allow them to lend
more. Chinese stocks, which had been pricing in further easing by the PBOC for
the past 3 months, a period during which the Shanghai Composite soared over
50%, were delighted by the latest easing move and surged even more, surging
higher by the most in the past three weeks.
----
50
Numbers From 2014 That Sound Fake But That Are Actually Real Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 12/24/2014. 2014 was
quite a bizarre year. The past 12 months brought us MH370, Ebola, civil war
in Ukraine, civil unrest in Ferguson, the rise of ISIS and the fall of the
Democrats in the midterm elections. Our world is becoming crazier and more
unstable with each passing day, and we have a feeling that things are going
to accelerate greatly in 2015... despite record-er-est US stock prices.
----
We
Live In A New World And The Saudis Are The First To Get It Submitted
by Tyler Durden on 12/24/2014 Because they are so early to notice, and
adapt, I would expect them to come out relatively well. But I would fear for
many of the others. And that includes a real fear of pretty extreme reactions,
and violence, in quite a few oil-producing nations that have kept a lid on
their potential domestic unrest to date. It would also include a lot of
ugliness in the US shale patch, with a great loss of jobs (something it
will have in common with North Sea oil, among others), but perhaps even more
with profound mayhem for many investors in US energy. And then we’re right
back to your pension plans.
----
Make
No Mistake, The Oil Slump Is Going To Hurt The US Too Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 12/24/2014 If you only
paid attention to the mainstream media, you’d be forgiven for thinking that the
US is going to get away from the collapse in oil prices scot free. It’s a
crying shame. The US has come so close to becoming energy independent. But it’s
going to have to get its head around the idea that it could become a big oil
importer again. In the end, the US energy boom may add up to nothing more than
an illusion dependent upon the artificially cheap debt environment created by
the Federal Reserve’s easy money policy.
----
The
Dangerous Economics of Shale Oil Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 12/24/2014 For years, we've been warning that the economics of the US 'shale
revolution' were suspect. Namely, that they've only been made possible by
the new era of 'expensive' oil (an average oil price of between $80-$100 per
barrel). We've argued that many players in the shale industry simply wouldn't
be able to operate profitably at lower prices. Well, with oil prices now
suddenly sub-$60 per barrel, we're about to find out. Using the traditional
corporate income statement, it is difficult to determine if shale drilling
companies make money. There are a lot of moving parts, some deliberate
obfuscation at some companies, and the massive decline rates make analysis
difficult – since so much of reported profitability depends on assumptions made
regarding depreciation and depletion. So, can shale oil be profitable? If
so, at what price? And under what conditions?
----
Chinese
Gold Diggers Drop Their Shovels As Gold Miner Bankruptcies Begin Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 12/24/2014
----
The
Keynesian Desperation Regarding 1920-21 Is Now Embarrassing Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 12/24/2014 When it comes to the depression of 1920-21, the
central bank and federal government did the opposite of what Keynesians
recommend. Nonetheless, recovery ensued despite continued budget cutting
and a loosening of monetary policy that happened well after the recovery was
underway.// In contrast, both the Fed and the feds engaged in monetary and
fiscal “stimulus” after the 1929 stock market crash. Nonetheless, things just
kept getting worse, so that the Keynesians have no explanation except to say,
“too little, too late.”// In summary, things make perfect sense if we accept the hypothesis that government
spending wastes resources. This really shouldn’t be such a scandalous
suggestion, especially since it fits the empirical evidence so neatly.-
Tyler Durden : It is truly amazing to see the contortions into which some
analysts twist themselves, trying to make the historical facts fit their
economic models.
----
Thank You Fed Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 12/24/2014 America's
wealth gap - between middle-income and upper-income families - is at its widest
on record. Guess when it started to surge... Answer: during Obama administration. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-24/thank-you-fed and
Happy Holidays "wealthy people"
----
Why
Everyone Is About To Rush Into Subprime Mortgage Debt (Again) Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 12/24/2014
St.
Louis County Police Releases CCTV Clip Detailing Events Of Last Night's
Shooting Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 12/24/2014
Happy
Holidays Hollande: French Joblessness Surges To Another New Record High
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/24/2014
----
Did
The Saudis And The US Collude In Dropping Oil Prices? Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 12/24/2014 The oil price
drop that has dominated the headlines in recent weeks has been framed almost
exclusively in terms of oil market economics, with most media outlets blaming
Saudi Arabia, through its OPEC Trojan horse, for driving down the price, thus
causing serious damage to the world's major oil exporters – most notably
Russia. While the market explanation is partially
true, it is simplistic, and fails to address key geopolitical pressure points
in the Middle East. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-24/did-saudis-and-us-collude-dropping-oil-prices
----
Russia
Says It Has Evidence From Ukraine Military Defector Kiev Was Responsible For
MH-17 Crash Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/24/2014
----
Calling
'BS' On Projections Of A Decade of $20 Oil Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/24/2014 The ability of oil exporters to trigger a
short-term collapse in price does not automatically translate into an ability
to control the financial conflagration such a crash ignites.
----
"The
Fed Is Heading For Another Catastrophe... Central Banking Has Lost Its
Way" Stephen Roach Warns Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/24/2014 The Fed’s incrementalism of
2004-2006 was a policy blunder of epic proportions. The Fed seems poised to
make a similar — and possibly even more serious — misstep in the current
environment. In these days of froth, the persistence of extraordinary
policy accommodation in a financial system flooded with liquidity poses a great
danger.
----
2015
- What Does Cycle Analysis Suggest? Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/24/2014 Will 2015 be the seventh (7th) consecutive
year of the current bull market cycle? It is possible. But with 100% of all
analysts and economists betting on that outcome, it
is quite possible that something else will happen. In the
words of Warren Buffett: "Buy when people are fearful and sell
when they are greedy." Currently,
those "people" are getting extremely greedy.// Sam Stovall, the
investment strategist for Standard & Poor's once stated: "If
everybody's optimistic, who is left to buy? If everybody's pessimistic, who's
left to sell?"// Lance Roberts said: “I am a long term, fundamental value,
investor. So these rules don’t really apply to me.” : Individuals are
long term investors only as long as the markets are rising. Despite
endless warnings, repeated suggestions and outright recommendations - getting
investors to sell, take profits and manage your portfolio risks is nearly a
lost cause as long as the markets are rising. Unfortunately, by the time
the fear, desperation or panic stages are reached it is far too late to act and
I will only be able to say that I warned you. http://streettalklive.com/index.php/visualizing-bob-farrell-s-10-investing-rules.html
----
----
- Russia says NATO turning Ukraine into 'frontline of confrontation' (Reuters)
- Oil Drillers Under Pressure to Scrap Rigs to Cope With Downturn (BBG)
- Demonstrators Defy NYC Mayor's Call to Suspend Police Protests (BBG)
- U.S. to send more private contractors to Iraq (Reuters)
- ISIS Shoots Down Jet From U.S.-Led Coalition, Syrian Monitors Say (NYT)
- Russians Race to Secure Mortgages Before Costs Spiral (BBG)
- Abe Brings in Former Soldier Nakatani as Defense Minister (BBG)
- At Coke, Newest Flavor Is Austerity (WSJ)
- Fear and retribution in Xi's corruption purge (Reuters)
- UBS Raises Flag on China’s $1 Trillion Overseas Debt Pile (BBG)
----
18-Year-Old Black Teen Who Drew Gun Shot
Dead By Police In St. Louis Gas Station Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/24/2014
----
Could
An Energy Bust Trigger QE4, Peter Schiff Asks Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/23/2014 A recession and a financial
panic caused by sub $60 oil will significantly quicken the timetable by which
the Fed cranks up the presses. When it does, oil could once again increase in
price, along with all the other things we need on a daily basis. That should
finally dispel any remaining illusions that the Fed could successfully land the
metaphorical plane. More QE may minimize the damage in the short-term,
but we believe it will keep us trapped in our current cocoon of endless
stimulus, where we will slowly suffocate to death.
----
Pepe
Escobar On Blowback After Blowback For The "Empire Of Chaos" Submitted
by Tyler Durden on 12/23/2014 At present, the choice between the two
available models on the planet seems stark indeed: Eurasian integration
or a spreading empire of chaos. China and Russia know what they want, and
so, it seems, does Washington. The question is: What will the other
moving parts of Eurasia choose to do? All these interlocked developments
suggest a geopolitical tectonic shift in Eurasia that the American media
simply hasn’t begun to grasp. Which doesn’t mean that no one notices
anything. You can smell the incipient panic in the air in the Washington
establishment. So long to the unipolar moment... 2015 is "going
to be a real hardcore year."
"Peak"
American Dream? Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/23/2014 More than 80% of Chinese believe
today's youth will have a better life than their parents... // More than
80% of Americans do not believe today's youth will have a better life
than their parents...
----
Broken
Energy Markets And The Downside Of Hubbert’s Peak by Tyler Durden on 12/23/2014 Those losses have to be covered by either
higher price or via the taxation system. Either way, the brave new world
that awaits us will be characterized as the time of less that will be in stark
contrast to the time of plenty many of us enjoyed during the 20th Century.
----
Exposing
The Deception: How The US Economy "Grew" By $140 Billion As Americans
Became Poorer Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/23/2014 Confused how the US economy
just "grew" by 5%? The following analysis explains it all... "Americans Are Suddenly $80 Billion
"Poorer""
thanks to (upward) revised spending data and (downward) revised income. What
this meant a month ago is that as a result of a plunge in the imputed US
savings rate, some $80 billion in personal savings was revised away from the
average American household and right into the US economy. After all, something
had to grow the US GDP by a massive amount in order to give the Fed the green
light it needs to hike rates eventually, just so it can then ease when the
global dry powders from all the other central banks is used up.// ... A
whopping $140 billion in GDP! So what does this mean? Well, as we learned
earlier US GDP grew in Q3 by a nominal $272 billion to $17.6 trillion. We now
know that more than half of this increase came from, drum roll please, data
revisions! In other words, US GDP, using
pre-revision data, would have been less than 2.5%. But.. time was so critical
to boost consumer confidence so Americans will, in real life, do what the BEA
hopes they have already done at least on paper, and that is reduce their
savings by a whopping 20% at the end of September, or by some $140 billion, to
$593 billion in order to spend, spend, spend. // And the other irony: as the
BEA also reported, what did Americans allegedly spend the bulk of their
savings on? // So in short, today the market is euphoric and hitting all time
highs because Americans dug into their savings and spent billions on the
"Affordable" Care Act. // And that, ladies and gentlemen, is the
short answer why the US is "growing" when the rest of the world is
mired in a triple (or quadruple if one is Japan) recession. Source: Bureau
of Economic Analysis http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-23/exposing-deception-how-us-economy-grew-140-billion-q3-due-data-revisions
----
20
Stunning Facts About Energy Jobs In The US Submitted
by Tyler Durden on 12/23/2014 For all those who think the
upcoming carnage to the shale industry will be "contained" we refer
to the following research report from the Manhattan Institute
for Policy Research. For the
impatient ones, here is the punchline: "The $300–$400 billion overall
annual economic gain from the oil & gas boom has been greater than the
average annual GDP growth of $200–$300 billion in recent years—in other
words, the economy would have continued in recession if it were not for the
unplanned expansion of the oil & gas sector."
----
Saxo
Bank CIO:"Writing Off Russia Would Be Unwise" Submitted
by Tyler Durden on 12/23/2014 Russia and its citizens
have been here before and know the drill. Everything looks terrible at the
moment, but as the old saying goes, times of crisis are also times of maximum
opportunity to chart a new course. So the positive spin from all of this is
that we could see a new start from Russia in 2015. Writing off Russia would be
unwise.
----
If
Shell Backs Out, Arctic Oil Off The Table For Years Submitted
by Tyler Durden on 12/23/2014 The next several months may be pivotal for
the future of oil development in the Arctic. While Russia has proceeded
with oil drilling in its Arctic territory, the U.S. has been much slower to do
so. The push in the U.S. Arctic has been led by Royal Dutch Shell, a campaign
that has been riddled with mistakes, mishaps, and wasted money. According
to Platts, a decision on whether or not Shell plans to proceed with
drilling in 2015 will be made by March. And if they turn their back on drilling, it could mean closing the doors
on the Arctic for years to come.
----
"Greatest
Fools" Or "Smartest Men In The Room"? Submitted
by Tyler Durden on 12/23/2014 Here are 2 charts that might give some
pause for thought as investors ponder today's exuberance in stocks over the
backward-looking GDP extravaganza thanks to surging healthcare costs... as
opposed to expectations (the 'thing' stocks are supposed to discount)
about future growth...
----
Natural
Gas Suggests $33 Oil Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/23/2014 While the majority of
economists and analysts continue to expect incorrectly that falling oil prices
are a positive input to economic growth, the reality is that it is not.
The negative impact to economic growth from the decline in oil prices are quite
considerable when you consider that almost 40% of all the jobs created since
2009 have been in energy related industries. While the economists and analysts
are hopeful for a sharp recovery in oil prices, the current decline in oil
prices is nothing more than a return to historical normalcy.
----
----
"Off
The Grid" Economic Indicators – Q4 2014 Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/23/2014 ConvergEx's Nick Colas quarterly review of
“Off the grid” economic indicators tells a story somewhat less sanguine than
the typical government data. Confidence is returning, yes. But consider
just how low it got: the top 3 Google autofills for “I want to sell my …”
featured “kidney” for the first 3 quarters of this year. It was
replaced in the current quarter with “Laptop”. Progress, of a sort...
----
The
Greater Abomination: Washington's Lies About TARP's "Success" Are
Worse Than The Original Bailouts, Part I Submitted
by Tyler Durden on 12/23/2014 The mainstream economics narrative is so
far down the monetary rabbit hole that the blinding clarity of the chart below
has no chance whatsoever of seeing the light of day. That’s because it
dramatizes the real truth regarding all the Fed gibberish about “accommodation”
and “stimulus”. Namely, that what lies beneath its “extraordinary measures”,
such as ZIRP, QE, wealth effects and the rest of the litany, is a central
banking regime that systematically destroy savers. Period. TARP wasn’t
“repaid” with a profit. It was simply perpetuated and morphed into a new
form of destructive state subvention and malinvestment.
----
Oil
Down Due To "Weak Demand" Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/23/2014. Pickens rages as he warns
drilling rigs will be laid down on a very wide scale (just as we have noted previously). Arguing over 'peak oil', he calls CNBC
chatter "bullshit" and laid out a rather dismal short- to
medium-term outlook for the oil & gas sector - not what the cheerleading
tax-cut slurping media narrative wants to hear at all... T. Boone Pickens made
quite an appearance on CNBC this morning - stunning the cheerleaders into first
defense then silence as he broke the facts on oil's collapse to them. Oil is
down "mainly due to weak demand," he explains...
----
Will
The Fed Intervene In The Oil Market?
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/23/2014 In a larger sense, the Fed is already
intervening in the oil sector via its zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) and its
unlimited liquidity for financial speculation.Should the Fed turn the dial
of intervention up by buying futures and oil-based bonds, it is not a new
policy--it is simply a matter of degree. The intervention has been going on in
every sector since 2008. The implosion of the oil sector is simply the
latest outbreak of consequence following cause.
----
Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 12/23/2014 - 07:52
- Christmas rally enters sixth day in Europe (Reuters)
- Downing North Korea's Internet not much of a scalp (Reuters)
- North Korean Internet Access Restored After Hours-Long Outage (BBG)
- At U.N. council, U.S. calls life in North Korea 'living nightmare' (Reuters)
- Ukraine Cuts Gold Reserve to Nine-Year Low as Russia Buys (BBG)
- De Blasio Seeks to Heal Rifts With Police After Officers Slain (BBG)
- Oil steady around $60 on hopes of strong U.S. data (Reuters) - so it fell below $60 because...
- Australian Dollar Hits Four and a Half Year Low on Chine Growth Worries (Reuters)
----
Ukraine
Central Bank Conned Into Swapping Its Gold For Lead Bricks Submitted
by Tyler Durden on 12/22/2014.
The
Doom Boom: US Families Increasingly Prepared For "Modern Day
Apocalypse" Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/22/2014 From the outside America may
seem to be a land of endless optimism and confidence. But, as Sky News reports,
an increasing number of Americans seem to think it is danger of falling apart,
and they're preparing for the end. "We're not talking about folks
walking around wearing tin foil on their heads,; we're not talking about
conspiracy theorists. I'm talking about professionals: doctors and lawyers and
law enforcement and military. Normal, everyday people. They can't
necessarily put their finger on it. But there's something about the uncertainty
of our times. They know something isn't quite right."
----
Welcome
To The Recovery: US Box Office Spend Plunges To Lowest Since 2000 Submitted
by Tyler Durden on 12/22/2014 the 4% YoY decline - for what is
ultimately an affordable luxury - suggests the gas-price-savings are
going anywhere but discretionary spending (just as we noted previously in This Wasn't Supposed To Happen: 7 In 10
Americans To Save, Spend Gas "Tax Cut" On Bills Not Gifts ).
----
Name
The Exponential Chart Submitted
by Tyler Durden on 12/22/2014 - 20:05 It's not just the
exponential rise in US debt that threatens the future 'freedom' of Americans...
----
This
Is For You Steve Liesman... Welcome To Economics Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/22/2014 The key is to understand
why real median household incomes continue to decline and then how to correct
it. It all comes back to financial policies that incentivize
investors to avoid economy-boosting investments and toward financial
investments that have no economic benefit. The result is a narrowing of
income distribution exasperating the down spiral, while inflating wealth to the
already wealthy. As long as these policies remain intact the American
quality of life will continue to spiral downward while the wealth at the top
continues to accelerate until one day when the top pops off and all that wealth
goes abroad. And that Mr. Liesman is what we call economics.
----
----
Demographics
- Why The Great Recession Started (And Won't End Anytime Soon) Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/22/2014 WWII is still reshaping our
economic reality. The subsequent baby booms in the US and globally in
Japan, Europe, and so many more locations which were affected by the war
created a “pig in the python” moment. This unusually large wave of population
growth from ’45-’55 was “pent up demand” from the war. But society and its
leaders assumed this baby boom anomaly to be the new reality. The
“pig is passing” from the American and global workforce into retirement and now
the wreckage and folly of such basic misnomers has come home to roost…and will
get far worse.
----
Bloomberg's
Commodity Index Drops To Lowest Since 2009: What Does It Mean? Submitted
by Tyler Durden on 12/22/2014
----
"Isolated"?
China Officially Offers Help To "Irreplaceable Strategic Partner" Russia Submitted
by Tyler Durden on 12/22/2014 Just a week ago we detailed how China was
preparing to bailout Russia's liquidity crisis via the 150 billion yuan swap line the two
nations agreed in October. Today, as Bloomberg reports, we got confirmation as two Chinese
ministers offered support for Russia. China will provide help if needed and
is confident Russia can overcome its economic difficulties, Foreign Minister
Wang Yi was cited as saying; and Commerce Minister Gao Hucheng said expanding a
currency swap between the two nations and making increased use of yuan for
bilateral trade would have the greatest impact in aiding Russia. The Global
Times (mouthpiece for the Comunist Party) wrote in an editorial this weekend, "Russia
is an irreplaceable strategic partner on the international stage."
Isolated?
----
Uncle
Sam Does The Impossible: Loses $105 Million/Year Coining Money! Submitted
by Tyler Durden on 12/22/2014 Kyle Bass'
"nickel" trade is alive and well. A new report from the U.S. Mint reveals that it’s still not cost-effective
to make pennies and nickels - Americans lost $105 million in 2013 due to their
production.
----
Bank
Revenues Plummet 17% In October And November According To Citi Submitted
by Tyler Durden on 12/22/2014
Gold
& Silver Tumble As USDJPY Hits 120 Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/22/2014 Despite stocks ignoring the momentum ignition
efforts, USDJPy just briefly broke 120 once again. That appears to have been
the flash signal for 'someone' to dump vast quantities of precious metals in
the futures markets... "unrigged"
----
The
Fed Is Running On The Final Fumes Of Its Credibility Submitted
by Tyler Durden on 12/22/2014 When currencies catch fire,
even a run on the bank becomes an exercise in futility. The rot is spreading
from the margins to the center. Not even very far in the background, there
is wreckage everywhere as events spin out of the pretense of control. What
an opportunity for another country, say a country with an already foundering
currency, to dare introduce money partially backed by gold.
----
Existing
Home Sales Collapse Most Since July 2010, Downtick In Stock Market Blamed Submitted
by Tyler Durden on 12/22/2014
----
Grow
Your Way Out Of Debt? Don't Make Us Laugh...! Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/22/2014 The private sector – the part
that pays the bills – is only $12 trillion. Total debt – government, corporate
and personal – in the US is now $58 trillion (misreported yesterday as $59 trillion…
but what’s a trillion dollars between friends?). That’s nearly five
times the real economy that supports it. Assuming an annual interest rate
of 2%, even if you could contain debt increases to 3% of GDP a year, the
productive part of the economy would have to grow at 5% just to stay even. If
the average interest rate were to rise to that level again – and sooner or
later it will – it would take $3 trillion to service America’s debt – or
one-quarter of private sector output. That can’t happen. The wings would fall
off first.
----
North
Korea Warns Of Attacks Against White House, Pentagon And Entire "Cesspool
Of Terrorism" That Is America Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/22/2014 The whole "North Korea hacking
Sony" story had gotten so bizarre over the past week, there was nothing
stopping it from jumping fully into the rabit hole. The NDC said its
1.2m-member army was ready to use all types of warfare against the US. “Our
toughest counteraction will be boldly taken against the White House, the
Pentagon, and the whole US mainland, the cesspool of terrorism, by far
surpassing the ‘symmetric counteraction’ declared by Obama,” said the NDC
statement, carried by official news agency KCNA.
----
WTI
Crude Plunges Back Below $56, Nasdaq Red On Gilead Weakness Submitted
by Tyler Durden on 12/22/2014 It all looked so rosy just a
few short hours ago. WTI crude has slipped from over $58.50 (once again
testing that upper band of resistance) to back below $56 and down almost 2%
from Friday's close (not stabilizing). While the S&P and Dow (futures)
remain green, the Nasdaq has tumbled into the red on the heels of Gilead's
weakness (the 6th largest name in the Nasdaq 100).
----
Treasury
Surge Set To Continue: Hedge Funds Most Short The 10-Year In Three Years Submitted
by Tyler Durden on 12/22/2014
----
Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 12/22/2014 - 07:46
- Police officers' slaying raises pressure on New York mayor (Reuters)
- People Call for Cooling of Racial Tensions After Murder of NYPD Officers (BBG)
- The $6.3 Trillion Frenzy That Vanquished Treasury Bears (BBG)
- China Investigates Possible Stock-Price Manipulation (WSJ)
- Citigroup Was Wary of Metals-Backed Loans (WSJ)
- UPS Turns Parking Lots Into Sorting Centers to Add Speed (BBG)
- U.S. Move to Normalize Cuba Ties Boosts Firms’ Asset Claims (WSJ)
- Meredith Whitney’s Fund Said to Drop 11% as Office Put on Market (BBG)
- Railcar Bottleneck Looms for Oil (WSJ)
----
US
Equities Set For Record Open On Crude Commentary, Stable Russian Ruble Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 12/22/2014 There are two
key events driving overnight risk prices: first, there is the Bloomberg story
that "China
Offers Russia Help With Currency Swap Suggestion", which was
previously covered
extensively here a week ago, but now that the algos have official
confirmaiton they have sent the Ruble shorts into a panic short squeeze, with
the USDRUB tumbling another 5% as of latest. The other key development pushing
oil prices modestly higher again, is yesterday's speech by Saudi oil minister
Ali al-Naimi who "expressed confidence prices will pick up", however
not due to a drop in supply - because he made it very clear OPEC will never cut
output and instead will wait for the high cost producers to exit the game - but
amid improved economic growth.
----
Two
More Cops Shot After Yesterday's Brutal New York "Execution" Submitted
by Tyler Durden on 12/21/2014
"Houston,
You Have A Problem" - Texas Is Headed For A Recession Due To Oil Crash,
JPM Warns Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 12/21/2014 Fast forward to
today when we are about to learn that Newton's third law of Keynesian economics
states that every boom, has an equal and opposite bust. Which brings us to
Texas, the one state that more than any other, has benefited over the past 5
years from the Shale miracle. And now with crude sinking by the day, it is time
to unwind all those gains, and give back all those jobs. Did we mention: highly
compensated, very well-paying jobs, not the restaurant, clerical,
waiter, retail, part-time minimum-wage jobs the "recovery" has been
flooded with. Here is JPM's Michael Feroli explaining why Houston
suddenly has a very big problem.
----
Conrad
Black: The Saudis Fear Western Alliance With Iran; Crashing Oil Is Their
Retaliation Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 12/21/2014 "The
oil-price weapon, in the face of the terminal enfeeblement of the Obama
administration, is the last recourse before the Saudis and Turks, whatever
their autocues of racist rhetoric, invite Israel to smash the Iranian nuclear
program from the air."
----
Why
Germany Objects To ECB QE (In 1 Crazy Chart) Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 12/21/2014 While
"lowflation" continues to stun central bankers around the world, Zee
Germans remain stoic on the sidelines (courtesy of Jens 'nein nein nein'
Weidmann's last voice of reason left in the world) in their derision of the
ECB's sovereign QE efforts. If you wondered why they are so vehemntly opposed
to the printing of money... perhaps the following chart will help explain - just
how quickly a nation can swing from 'zee stabilitee' to 'zee hyperinflation'.
----
The
Global Monetary Reset Is Under Way Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 12/21/2014 The Global
Monetary Reset is under way, but people have not noticed it yet. The key
is the move to zero interest rates.
----
The
Hidden Leverage In "Shiny Objects" - Banks Sell Record Amount Of
Equity-Linked Structured Notes Submitted
by Tyler Durden on 12/21/2014 Banks are selling
a record amount of U.S. structured notes tied to the stocks of fast-growing,
volatile technology companies such as Facebook and Twitter. As
Bloomberg Briefs reports, sales of securities linked to Facebook soared to
$457.6 million this year, more than double the $204.2 million issued during the
same period of 2013. Bloomberg notes that investors are flocking to products
tied to social media companies, where more volatile share prices help banks
improve structured-note terms that have been hurt by low interest rates... and issuers
are "trying to put shiny objects in front of the client," as the BTFD
mentality gets increased leverage (and downside risk). Investors have
purchased $1.88 billion of structured notes linked to the 10 most popular
technology stocks so far this year - 31% more than the same period in 2013 -
and $32.7bn equity- and commodity-linked notes this year alone (up ~10% YoY).
As
we warned last week, counterparty risks are rising.
----
The
Keynesian PhD Brigade Strikes Again: Sweden’s Riksbank Joins The ZIRP Mania Submitted
by Tyler Durden on 12/21/2014 It is a tyranny of the PhDs. It is a
group-think mania that has gone global. It’s also only a matter of time
before the central bankers’ money printing spree takes down the very
bubble-ridden financial system it has so recklessly spawned.
----
Meet
Joe Lewis - The $200 Million "British Madoff" Submitted
by Tyler Durden on 12/21/2014
Drilling
Our Way Into Oblivion: Shale Was About Land Gambling With Cheap Debt, Not
Technological Miracles Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 12/21/2014
Police
Reportedly Rage, De Blasio's "Hands Are Dripping With Blood" Submitted
by Tyler Durden on 12/21/2014
Two
Months After Saying "Deflation Isn't Going To Happen" ECB Warns
"Negative Inflation" Is Coming Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/21/2014
-----
2014
Year In Review (Part 2): Will 2015 Be The Year It All Comes Tumbling Down? Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 12/21/2014 by
David Collum, originally posted at Peak Prosperity, If
you've not yet read Part 1, click here to do so. Despite the authorities'
best efforts to keep everything orderly, we know how this global Game of
Geopolitical Tetris ends: "Players lose a typical game of Tetris
when they can no longer keep up with the increasing speed, and the Tetriminos
stack up to the top of the playing field. This is commonly referred to as
topping out."
"I’m tired of being outraged!" The whole enchilada can be downloaded as a single PDF here, or read below, or viewed in parts via
the hot-linked contents as follows:
Part 1:
- Background
- Content
- Sources and the Fourth Estate
- On Conspiracy Theorizing
- Investing
- The Economy
- Bending, Breaking, and Broken Markets
- Precious Metals
- Energy
- Personal Debt, Savings, and Retirement
- States and Municipalities
- The Bond Caldera
- Argentina Versus the Bond Vultures
- Inflation Versus Deflation
Part 2:
- Wealth Disparity
- Banks and Bankers
- AIG
- The Federal Reserve
- Baptists
- Bootleggers
- Europe
- Asia
- China
- Japan
- ISIS
- Russia
- Ebola
- Government
- Clintons
- Barack Obama
- IRS Scandal Part Deux
- Bundy Ranch and Ferguson
- Militarization of Police
- Civil Forfeiture
- Civil Liberties
- Conclusion
- Books
- Acknowledgments
- Links Part 1 | Part 2
-----
PART 2
Wealth
Disparity
“Printing money out of thin air does not increase
wealth, it only increases claims on existing wealth.” Charles Hugh Smith
In the olden days, claims that the rich were getting richer and the
poor were getting poorer were a thinly veiled rallying cry for class warfare.
Thomas Sowell reminds us that a growing economy lifts all boats, and
those at the bottom strata percolate up generationally from garment worker to
bookkeeper to doctors and lawyers (well, maybe just doctors). It feels
different now, and the angst over wealth disparity resonates with growing
numbers of adherents. It is no longer just the dregs of society but the
increasingly struggling middle class, or what I prefer to call “the median
class.”
“Only the wealthy can afford a middle-class
lifestyle.”
Zero Hedge
The contrasts are stunning. While 53% of adults earn less than $30,000
per year,ref 197 the rentier class—big-gun money managers—are muffin
topping out at $3 billion.ref 198,199 David Tepper earned almost
$500K per hour. Stevie Cohen ranked second in earnings as a full-time defendant
for insider trading. The median retirement savings of a working-age
adult is $2,000, yet we've got folks with the cash to pay for brain surgery on
goldfish,ref 200 $60 million Steve Martin–like balloon art,ref
201 $500K watches,ref 202 and $2,000 glamburgers
(“gluttonburgers”).ref 203 A full 47% of millennials are using
>50% of their paychecks to pay down debt.ref 204 Twenty percent
of US families have no employed family members.ref 205 This is a
problem demanding solutions for which none are obvious. The elite billionaire
society, Beta Kappa Phi,ref 206 is dominated by the rentiers rather
than wealth-creating capitalists. This is not about Bill Gates or Michael Dell.
Wealth inequality is about the inordinately high pay for those who don't
actually create wealth and the inordinately low pay for those whose toils do.
We have reached the apex of another gilded age.
“It's not just enough to fly in first class; I
have to know my friends are flying in coach.”
Jeremy Frommer, Carlin's chief executive
Seven Habits of Highly Successful People: skiing, yachting, snorkeling,
golf, polo, dinner parties, and shopping.
We will be tempted to redistribute. But ramping up the minimum wage by
fiat quickly ushers in the 360-burger-per-hour robot.ref 207 “Our
device isn’t meant to make employees more efficient,” said Momentum co-founder
Alexandros Vardakostas. “It’s meant to completely obviate them.” (Note the
careful use of “obviate” rather than “replace.”) Debates about whether we
should throw money to the rich or money to the poor, however, beg the key
question: why are we throwing money at all?
“A smoothly operating financial system
promotes efficient allocation of saving and investment.”
Janet Yellen
Killin' it Janet! But then she went on to make some unfortunate
comments suggesting that the poor need to own more assets. Oh well. It is
ironic that some (including me) attribute the wild disparity squarely on the
Fed.
The economy has been financialized to dysfunction, a hallmark of a
failing empire according to Kevin Phillips in American Theocracy. By
flooding the market with capital, central bankers have made it difficult for
workers to compete with capital-intensive technology. (I hasten to add that I’m
unsure where I stand on this point given that creative destruction is central
to growth.) The excess capital, however, also renders our hard-earned
savings—our capital—worthless. I know where I stand on this
point. Why pay savers for use of their capital when the Fed hands it out for
free? By driving down rates to zero, the Fed is impoverishing savers unwilling
to step out on the risk curve. Those of the median class who spent time out on
that risk curve have been generationally wounded and, more important, are
broke. They lack the capital to close the gap. Despite claims of impending
deflation, the spending power of paychecks for the staples—food, energy, health
care, and education—has tanked. Alliance Bernstein does a remarkable job of
laying out the almost unattainable goal of a stable retirement.ref 208
“I would say [Fed policy] has been in some
sense reverse Robin Hood.”
Kevin Warsh, Stanford University and former
Federal Reserve governor
“Maybe the Fed is delusional about the effects
of its policy . . . in widening the gulf between rich and poor in this
country.”
William Cohan
“Part of the impact of these very, very low
interest rates is that we've created this disparity. The wealthy are benefiting
from government policy and the non-wealthy aren't. We have a president who says
we've got to fight this disparity, and we have a Fed who's encouraging it
everyday.”
Sam Zell, former real estate mogul
History shows that ugly things happen when classes start battling for
their share of the pie. A McShitstorm hit the McDonalds annual meeting from
clashes of cops and protestors.ref 209 Ferguson (see below) is not
just about a dead black guy. Models show a high correlation of global riots
with global food prices.ref 210 We are there again. Nick Hanauer, a
guy who is quite familiar with wealth creation, suggests that the billionaires
of the world should be nervous:ref 211
“What everyone wants to believe is that when
things reach a tipping point and go from being merely crappy for the masses to
dangerous and socially destabilizing, that we’re somehow going to know about
that shift ahead of time. Any student of history knows that’s not the way it
happens. Revolutions, like bankruptcies, come gradually, and then suddenly. One
day, somebody sets himself on fire, then thousands of people are in the
streets, and before you know it, the country is burning. And then there’s no
time for us to get to the airport and jump on our Gulfstream and fly to New
Zealand. That’s the way it always happens. If inequality keeps rising as it has
been, eventually it will happen. We will not be able to predict when, and it
will be terrible—for everybody. But especially for us.”
Nick Hanauer, to his fellow billionaires
Nick sees pitchforks in the future. The Hanauer editorial posted in Politico
generated upward of 10,000 comments from 10,000 pitchfork wielders. This plotline—a
possible Fourth Turning—is just coming into focus.
“The Bank never ‘goes broke.’ If the Bank runs
out of money, the Banker may issue as much more as needed by writing on any
ordinary paper.”
~Monopoly board game rule book
TO
CONTINUE READING OPEN: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-21/2014-year-review-part-2-will-2015-be-year-it-all-comes-tumbling-down
---------
Martin
Armstrong Asks "Will They Hang Bankers Again On Wall Street?" Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 12/21/2014 What took place in Washington over the past two weeks
with the repeal of Dodd Frank and then the effective repeal of the Volcker Rule
sounds strikingly familiar to at least three previous periods in American
History that led to total disaster. What the bankers just pulled off will
lead to their demise. They have played with a historical fire that
may end in actual bloodshed. It would not be the first time they have been
dragged from their palaces and hanged on the streets. That is what the term “BLACK
FRIDAY” really stood for – the day a mob hanged bankers on Wall Street.
----
Saudi
Arabia Refuses To Cut Oil Output Even If Non-OPEC Members Do Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 12/21/2014 As even Reuters
observes this morning when discussing the ongoing crude rout, "the
market slide has triggered conspiracy theories, ranging from the Saudis
seeking to curb the U.S. oil boom, to Riyadh looking to undermine Iran and
Russia for their support of Syria." It appears said theories will
continue raging for a long time, because as Saudi Arabia's oil minister who has
been extensively in the news in the past couple (that means "two" as
per Janet Yellen) of month explained, the biggest OPEC oil producer said on
Sunday it would not cut output to prop up oil markets even if
non-OPEC nations did so, in one of the toughest signals yet that the world's
top petroleum exporter plans to ride out the market's biggest slump in years,
and that the price of crude is not going up any time soon.
----
Two
NYPD Cops Murdered In "Execution Style" Ambush, Shooter Commits
Suicide - Live Coverage Submitted
by Tyler Durden on 12/20/2014
Judge
Rules Obama's Abuse Of Executive Orders Is "Unconstitutional" Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 12/20/2014 “President
Obama’s unilateral legislative action violates the separation of powers
provided for in the United States Constitution as well as the Take Care Clause,
and therefore, is unconstitutional.”
----
China
Tests Nuclear ICBMs, US Analyst Warns "Arms Control Is Failing To Increase
American Security" Submitted
by Tyler Durden on 12/20/2014 China carried out
a long-range missile flight test on Saturday using multiple, independently
targetable reentry vehicles, or MIRVs, according to U.S. defense officials. As
The Washington Free Beacon reports, the test of a new DF-41 missile,
China’s longest-range intercontinental ballistic missile, marks the first
test of multiple warhead capabilities for China (the DF-41 is capable of
carrying up to 10 warheads and has a maximum range of 7,456 miles, allowing it
to target the entire continental United States). Rick Fisher, a specialist on
the Chinese military with the International Assessment and Strategy Center,
warned "the beginning of China’s move toward multiple warhead-armed
nuclear missiles is proof that today, arms control is failing to increase the
security of Americans."
----
150
Years Of Global Monetary Policy Summed Up In One Word (And 1 Chart) Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 12/20/2014 "Zero..." With all the "talk" of
diverging paths of monetary policy... one could be forgiven, if glancing at the
chart above, for thinking the inevitable endgame of Keynesianism is very
much at hand as first The BoJ, then The Fed, then Europe all enter ZIRP...
and now NIRP... http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-20/150-years-global-monetary-policy-summed-one-word-and-1-chart Source: Goldman Sachs
----
There
Is Hope In Understanding That A Great Economic Collapse Is Coming Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 12/20/2014 George
Orwell once said that “during
times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act“.
That perfectly describes the era that we are currently living in. The truth
does not bring fear and despair. Rather, the truth brings hope and it sets
people free.
----
The
Day Einstein Feared Has Arrived Submitted
by Tyler Durden on 12/20/2014
-----
Things
That Make You Go Hmmm... Like A 'Run' On The Gold 'Bank' Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 12/20/2014 Say what you
want about the gold price languishing below $1200 (or not, as the case may be,
after this week), and say what you want about the technical picture or the
“6,000-year bubble,” as Citi’s Willem Buiter recently termed it; but know this:
gold is an insurance policy — not a trading vehicle — and the time to assess
gold is when people have a sudden need for insurance. When that day comes -
and believe me, it’s coming - the price will be the very last thing that
matters. It will be purely and simply a matter of securing possession -
bubble or not - and at any price. That price will NOT be $1200. A “run” on
the gold “bank” would undoubtedly lead to one of those Warren Buffett
moments when a bunch of people are left standing naked on the shore. It is also
a phenomenon which will begin quietly before suddenly exploding into life. If
you listen very carefully, you can hear something happening...
----
A
Funny Thing Happened To Oil Prices When Nixon Killed The Gold Standard Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 12/20/2014 For the past
150 years, crude oil prices have varied between around $10 per barrel and
around $120 per barrel. For many decades, oil prices were relatively
"stable" but a funny thing happened in the early 70s and everything
changed - whether coincidental or causative the linkages between the oil
crisis and Nixon's
Gold-Standard-busting of Bretton Woods are clear in the chart below.
Goldman expects continued high oil price volatility with risks skewed to the
downside as the market searches for a new equilibrium... and a period of
macroeconomic adjustment to structurally lower oil prices. Is oil adjusting
to a new 'gold-standard-esque' normal?
----
Bond
Yields Set To Plunge In 2015: Next Year Global Treasury Supply Will Tumble By
20% As ECB Joins The Party Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 12/20/2014
Jim
Grant: "The Fed Has A 3rd Mandate... The Administration Of American Equity
Prices" Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 12/20/2014 Having
recently given us a two paragraph synopsis of all that is wrong with our
financial market faith in fed officialdom, Jim Grant unleashes his critical
wit and insight on CNBC to explain the Fed's new remit, as Bill Dudley recently
explained, "the administration of American equity prices." The
Fed will find it difficult ro raise rates - both technically (for
reasons we have explained in detail previously) and "they will
find many blocks in the way having to do with financial markets'
reaction." Simply put, the Fed wants to raise rates but mostly it wants
peace and quiet, which it does not have: "The Fed is America's central
bank but it is the steward of the world's currency," and as Grant
concludes, "it is raining currencies around the world... and the Fed
must be coginizant of that."
----
2014
Year In Review (Part 1): The Final Throes Of A Geopolitical Game Of Tetris Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 12/20/2014 Every year, David Collum
writes a detailed "Year in Review" synopsis full of keen
perspective and plenty of wit. This year's is no exception. "I have
not seen a year in which so many risks - some truly existential - piled up so
quickly. Each risk has its own, often unknown, probability of morphing into
a destructive force. It feels like we’re in the final throes of a
geopolitical Game of Tetris as financial and political authorities race to
place the pieces correctly. But the acceleration is palpable. The
proximate trigger for pain and ultimately a collapse can be small, as anyone
who’s ever stepped barefoot on a Lego knows..."
----
The
False Promises Of 2% Inflation Submitted
by Tyler Durden on 12/20/2014 A specter is haunting the world, the
specter of two percent inflationism. Whether pronounced by the U.S.
Federal Reserve or the European Central Bank, or from the Bank of Japan, many
monetary central planners have declared their determination to impose a certain
minimum of rising prices on their societies and economies. One of the oldest of
economic fallacies continues to dominate and guide the thinking of monetary
policy makers: that printing money is the magic elixir for the creating
of sustainable prosperity. Once the inflationary monetary expansion ends or
is slowed down, it is discovered that the artificially created supply and
demand patterns and relative price and wage structure are inconsistent with
non-inflationary market conditions. Governments and their monetary central
planners, therefore, are the cause and not the solution to the instabilities
and hardships of inflations and recessions.
----
From
Average Joe To Average Jihadi - How A Texas Plumber's Truck Turned Up In Syria Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 12/20/2014
----
The
Biggest Economic Story Going Into 2015 Is Not Oil by
Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog, Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 12/19/2014 http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-19/biggest-economic-story-going-2015-not-oil Once again oil is not even the biggest story
today. It’s plenty big enough by itself to bring down large swaths of the
economy, but in the background there’s an even bigger tale a-waiting.
Not entirely unconnected, but by no means the exact same story either. It’s
like them tsunami waves as they come rolling in. It’s exactly like that. That
is, in the wake of the oil tsunami, which is a long way away from having
finished washing down our shores, there’s the demise of emerging markets. And
we're not talking Putin, he’ll be fine, as he showed again yesterday in his big
press-op. It’s the other, smaller, emerging countries that will blow up in
spectacular fashion, and then spread their mayhem around. And make no
mistake: to be a contender for bigger story than oil going into 2015, you have
to be major league large. This one is.
----
The
Burning Questions For 2015 Submitted
by Tyler Durden on 12/19/2014 "Most investors go about their job
trying to identify ‘winners’. But more often than not, investing is about
avoiding losers. Like successful gamblers at the racing track, an
investor’s starting point should be to eliminate the assets that do not stand a
chance, and then spread the rest of one’s capital amongst the remainder." So
as the year draws to a close, it may be helpful if we recap the main
questions confronting investors and the themes we strongly believe in, region
by region.
----
----
I'm
Not Buying It - Not The Wall Street Rip, Nor The Keynesian Rap Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 12/19/2014 The current
illusion of recovery is a result mainly of windfalls to the financial asset
owning upper strata, the explosion of transfer payments funded with
borrowed public money and another supply-side bubble - this time in the energy
sector and its suppliers and infrastructure. But that’s not real growth or
wealth. Indeed, the desultory truth about the latter is
better revealed by the fact that the American economy is not even
maintaining its 20th century level of breadwinner jobs. And the real state of
affairs is further testified to by the lamentable trend in real
median household incomes. That figure - not distorted by the bubble at the
top of the income ladder - is still lower than it was two decades ago. So
much for the Keynesian rap. Yet that’s about all that underpins the latest
Wall Street rip.
----
Junk
Bonds Are Going To Tell Us Where The Stock Market Is Heading In 2015 Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 12/19/2014 Do you want
to know if the stock market is going to crash next year? Just keep an
eye on junk bonds. Prior to the horrific collapse of stocks in 2008, high
yield debt collapsed first. And as you will see below, high yield debt
is starting to crash again.
----
The
Housing Bubble Explained in One Little Gem of an Excerpt... Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 12/19/2014
Former
BIS Chief Economist: "The System Is Dangerously Unanchored; It Is Every
Man For Himself" Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 12/19/2014 And we do
not know what the long-term consequences of this will be. And if countries
get in serious trouble, think of the Russians at the moment, there is nobody at
the center of the system who has the responsibility of providing liquidity to
people who desperately need it. If we have a number of small countries or one
big country which run into trouble, the resources of the International Monetary
Fund to deal with this are very limited. The idea that all countries act in
their own individual interest, that you just let the exchange rate float and
the whole system will be fine: This all is a dangerous illusion."
----
"Something
Changed" - Comparing E-Mini Liquidity In 2009, 2012 And Today Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 12/19/2014 As Eric
Hunsader rhetorically notes, "eMini Liquidity was cut in half
starting Dec 12. Unknown why." Actually "known" as we
explained in "How
The Market Is Like CYNK."
----
Why
The US Is About To Be Flooded With Record Oil Production Due To Plunging Oil
Prices Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 12/19/2014 One would think
that plunging oil prices and the resulting mothballing (or bankruptcy) of the
highest-cost domestic producers would lead to a collapse in US oil production.
And sure enough, if looking simply at headline data like the Baker Hughes count
of active rigs in the US, then US oil production grinding to a halt would
be all but assured. However, what will actually happen, even as the
highest-cost producers and those with the weakest balance sheets are taken to
their local bankruptcy court, is that as Bloomberg
reports, the US is - paradoxically - set to pump a 42-year high amount
of oil in 2015 "as drillers ignore the recent decline in price,
pointing them in the opposite direction."
----
Central
Banks Are Now Uncorking The Delirium Phase Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 12/19/2014 Virtually every day there is an eruption of lunacy
from one central bank or another somewhere in the world. In short, the
central banks of the world are embroiled in a group-think mania so extreme and
irrational that it puts one in mind of the spasm of witchcraft trials that
erupted in the Massachusetts Bay Colony nearly four centuries
ago. As a practical matter, this mania amounts to a race to the
currency bottom and the final extinguishment of the price discovery
mechanism in every financial market on the planet. Flying blind, the financial
markets are thus bubbling - in the delirium phase - like never
before. That is, until they don’t.
----
The Fed
Is "Confused & Confusing"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/19/2014 "At the
end of the day, the Fed is confused and confusing, so if you spend too much
time addressing their comments you end up confusing as well." The FOMC
meeting was, simply put, slightly hawkish. Unfortunately, the markets’
outsized and illogical reactions are signs and symptoms that financial markets
are broken. The FOMC’s meddling in financial market behavior could easily
catch up to them in an ugly fashion.
-----
US
Oil Rig Count Tumbles Most In Over 5 Years,"Demand From Oilfield Customers
Dropping Rapidly" Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 12/19/2014
Epic
Bot Fraud: Up To 50% Of All Publisher Traffic Is From Fake Clicks; Billions In
Ad Revenue At Risk Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 12/19/2014
Credit
& Volatlity Are Flashing Red, "But We Aren't In A Crisis, Are
We?" Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 12/19/2014
----
"Fed
To The Rescue" - The Plunge Protection Team Makes The Front Page Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 12/19/2014 In October it
was Jim Bullard's "QE4" hint that sent the stock market on an
all-time record-breaking run of gains, which
no lesser institution than the central banker's central bank - The BIS -
lamented "the markets' buoyancy hinges on central banks' every word
and deed." And then just two days ago, The Fed did it again:
by the mere appearance of grandma Yellen (and the words "patient" and
"considerable"), US stocks explode to their greatest back-to-back
gains in almost six years. So it is perhaps ironic that no more mainstream
media publication than USA Today has finally realised, there are no
fundamentals anymore...
----
Russia
Busts "Gold-Selling" Rumors, Reports It Bought Another 600,000 Ounces
Taking Gold Holdings To New Record High
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/19/2014
----
----
Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 12/19/2014 - 07:45
- Icahn, Paulson Suffer Large Losses as Energy-Related Bets Sour (WSJ)
- Oil Investors Keep Betting Wrong on When Market Will Bottom (BBG)
- U.S. to sell final $1.25 billion shares of Ally Financial from bailout (Reuters)
- Ally Financial Gets Subpoena Related to Subprime Automotive Finance (WSJ)
- Russia's parliament rushes through bill boosting banking capital (Reuters)
- How a Memo Cost Big Banks $37 Billion (WSJ)
- ECB considers making weaker euro zone states bear more quantitative easing risk (Reuters)
- How the U.S. Could Retaliate Against North Korea (BBG)
----
Futures
Continue Rising As Illiquid Market Anticipates More Volatility In Today's
Quad-Witching Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 12/19/2014
----
"It's
A Huge Crisis" - The UK Oil Industry Is "Close To Collapse"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/18/2014
=====
No hay comentarios:
Publicar un comentario