jueves, 15 de mayo de 2014

WHERE WE ARE AND WHERE WE ARE GOING TO?



WHERE WE ARE AND WHERE WE ARE GOING TO?
DONDE ESTAMOS Y ADONDE VAMOS?

Hugo Adan May 15, 2014

1 Check  these World news first:

By Chris Martenson via Peak Prosperity –submitted by www.zerohedge.com

Ukraine is a bellwether; we will see other conflicts like it elsewhere in the world, and likely, in time, within our own nation. Which is why understanding the nature of social unrest is so important, particularly to those considering relocation (within or outside of their home country). You certainly don't want to leap from the frying pan into the fire as resource scarcity and conflicts are now part of the global equation.

My comment: Donde estamos y adonde vamos? Where we are & where we're going to?

This article is about causes of revolution. The thesis is that a critical 40% income fall is created by the rises of gas prices and both ignite current rebellions. The author Chris Martenson via Peak Prosperity –submitted by zerohedge.com- departs from the premise attributed to H Kissinger:  rising oil prices brings about rise in food prices. Then the empire rules come:  

Who controls the food supply controls the people; who controls the energy can control whole continents; who controls money can control the world.  H Kissinger

The fact is that the US is losing the dollar as main international currency for trade and bank deposits. This means that If IMF don’t go back to DSK proposal,  the fall of the USD and Euro will be catastrophic,  and either Econ-polit chaos will follow (temporal dominance of bitcoin), OR a new IMF will negotiate the acceptance of  the BRICS new currency as well as other currencies  dominant in the world trade with secured bases in gold and other precious metals.

Then the 1st rule will be obsolete: “those who control money will control the world”. There will be at least four main currencies (including the USD) with no one with dominant  position since the world will  be open to new currencies (including the bit coin) and according to their resources and trade.

The 2nd rule will also be declared obsolete since the owners of new currencies will impose a New Deal and will separate business from military might and force de-nuclearization of the world and rid off oil & carbon as main energy source. The US won’t be able to blackmail the world with his nuclear power (either all will have it or none) nor Saudis an Qatar will be able to finance jihadists and mercenaries worldwide.

The 3rd rule won’t have space either:  “Who controls the food supply controls the people” since consume sovereignty will cut the winds of Monsanto and others who profit with GMO products.  

The main premise for revolution (40% income fall and gas price rises)  won’t  make sense as rule for rebelions. The single factor remaining as cause , will be the exclusion of young generation and ethnic and gender minorities That will be a cause for political instability. 

It is expected that a NEW UN will deal with these problems easily once the US capture of the UN is dismantled and state capture by financial speculators are placed in jail. Meanwhile, those war-mongers who today funnel money to capture  and  control young  grievances and rebellion  will be indicted for crimes against peace.    

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2- Continue reading:  WORLD NEWS


EURO-ZONE ECONOMY SHOWS WEAKER-THAN-EXPECTED EXPANSION.   
FRANKFURT—The euro zone's economy expanded at a weak pace last quarter despite a strong recovery in Germany, putting added pressure on the European Central Bank to enact fresh easing measures to prevent the region from sliding into a lengthy period of low inflation and economic stagnation. http://online.wsj.com/articles/euro-zone-economy-shows-weaker-than-expected-expansion-1400145062?tesla=y&mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories&mg=reno64-wsj

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If one looked closely between all of this booming, one would find that everything isn’t quite booming after all. Yet, if the stock market and the economy are booming why do we see:
  • UK considering leaving the European Union
  • Scotland voting to leave the UK
  • Catalonia voting to leave Spain
  • Venice voting to leave Italy
  • Greece not being allowed a vote on leaving the Eurozone.

From our perspective, the only thing booming in Europe are separatist movements – no one wants to stay, except of course those who have a vested interest in the status quo. We are very confident that it is only a matter of when – not if, the Eurozone breaks and the breaking will be caused by either a planned election or a grass roots social movement to force change. Now, there are numerous straws that can break the European camel’s back – simply close your eyes and pick one. The point being, despite umpteen different bailouts, followed by umpteen different stimulus programs, neatly delivered by umpteen different election promises – current European governments are increasingly becoming less enamoured by its voting citizens.  Open figure:  Which straw will break the European camel’s back http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/05/20140514_ice.png

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The most expensive: Hong Kong 2.32, UK 2.25, Germany 2.15, France 2.12, Suitz 2.05
The cheapest : Malaysia, Indonesia, Russia and US and Mx: below 1.07 per litter gas (1/4 of gallon) in USD
Source: Deutsche Bank
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RUSSIA
Russia Dumps 20% Of Its Treasury Holdings As Mystery "Belgium" Buyer Adds Another Whopping $40 Billion.  Russia indeed dumped a record $26 billion, or some 20% of all of its holdings, bringing its post-March total to just over $100 billion - the lowest since the Lehman crisis. But as shocking as this largely pre-telegraphed dump was, it pales in comparison with what we first observed, is the country that has quietly and quite rapidly become the third largest holder of US paper: Belgium. http://www.zerohedge.com/

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UKRAINE




The self-proclaimed “people’s governor” of Donetsk, Pavlo Gubarev, has, according to KyivPost, threatened “total annihilation” of Ukrainian armed forces moved into Donetsk region if Kyiv did not pull them away from “the cities of Donbas” within one hour.
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UKRAINE SLIDES DEEPER TOWARD WAR AS RUSSIA WARNS ON VOTE.   

“When Ukrainians kill Ukrainians, I believe it’s as close to civil war as you can get,” Sergei Lavrov told Bloomberg Television yesterday in an interview in Moscow. “In the east and south of Ukraine, there is a war, a real war, with heavy weaponry used, and if this is something that is conducive to free and fair elections, then I don’t understand something about freedom.” http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-14/ukraine-slides-deeper-toward-war-as-russia-warns-on-vote.html

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3- AMERICA, OUR ORWELLIAN COUNTRY
EL PAIS DONDE SE DICE y HACE LO INVERSO DE LO DICHO y HECHO

1. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION PLUNGES BY MOST IN 5 YEARS (BIGGEST MISS IN 3 YEARS).  Industrial Production slumped by 0.6% - its biggest miss since April 2011 - after its March rebound. This drop is the lowest since June 2009... and this is after the post-weather rebound... Still wondering why bond yields are collapsing? Don't trust the signals of the bond market - stick with believing in the analysts - 80 out of 81 economists thought industrial production would have done something better in April. http://www.zerohedge.com/

2. Speculators –investors- are in trouble if pay for Treasury protection


London Silver Fix announced that in three months it would no longer exist. However, silver is only one half of the world's two best known precious metals. Which is why we decided to take a long, hard look at that other fix: gold.

The rapid and dramatic departure of the world's largest bank by outstanding notional derivatives, and Europe's biggest bank by any metric, Deutsche Bank, from the precious metal fix, means that something felt out of place:  if the participants of the "fixing" process which for so many years took place in the office of none other than Rothschild on St. Swithin's Lane in London, were suddenly scrambling to disappear without a trace.

The gold and silver fixings are organized through UK limited liability companies of which the member investment bank traders are directors. Before the resignation of Deutsche Bank, there were five directors and five alternate directors of "The London Gold Market Fixing Limited" and three directors and three alternate directors of "The London Silver Market Fixing Limited."

Earlier this year on 16th January, German financial regulator BaFin stated that possible manipulation of currency and precious metals markets could be more serious than the manipulation that has already been proven in the Libor rigging scandal. On the very next day, January 17th, Deutsche Bank announced that it was withdrawing from both the gold and silver fixings in what it called "a scaling back of its commodities business."
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3-CPI RISES 2.0% FROM YEAR EARLIER, MOST SINCE JUNE: MEAT PRICES SOAR MOST IN OVER A DECADE. The CPI headline print of 0.3% for April came just as expected, rising from 0.2% in March and the highest sequential increase since June of 2013. It was also in line with expectations. The CPI ex-food and energy rose 0.2% and up 1.8% from a year ago, both just modestly higher than expected. Other details: "The food index rose 0.4 percent in April. The index for food at home, which rose 0.5 percent in both February and March, increased 0.4 percent in April. The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs rose 1.5 percent in April and has increased 3.9 percent over the last three months. [continue below]

The index for meats rose 2.9 percent, its largest increase since November 2003.  The rent index increased 0.3 percent, the index for owners’ equivalent rent advanced 0.2 percent, and the index for lodging away from home rose 0.4 percent. The medical care index rose 0.3 percent in April, with the indexes for medical care services and medical care commodities both increasing 0.3 percent."
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Investors can lose money in traditional fixed income securities. While U.S. Treasuries certainly bore some of the brunt, Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) actually sold off more. U.S. Treasury market as inflation expectations moderated climbed. Investors who had purchased TIPS for protection (and for the past year and a half were actually paying the government for the perceived safety) may have been surprised to find that simply having inflation protection did not serve as a defense against rising interest rates.
Investors have three needs: growth, income and protection. Investors allocated money to TIPS to presumably address the latter two of those needs. And yet TIPS have offered nothing by way of income for some time now, and over this recent short-term time period, failed to offer adequate protection. Investors need to look beyond traditional fixed income securities for real yield and to protect themselves, not against the risks of the past but rather the potential risks of the future, including rising interest rates.  Source : INTRUDER
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4- INITIAL CLAIMS PLUNGE TO LOWEST SINCE MAY 2007  Total benefits dropped 9k to 2.67 million - the lowest since Dec 2007. All things considered - America is fixed... so why are bond yields collapsing and GDP so piss-poor? Just like Japanese GDP however, good news appears to be bad news as the US equity market did not flinch on this record-setting jobs print.

5- EMPIRE MANUFACTURING REBOUNDS TO BEST IN 4 YEARS BUT SPENDING/JOBS OUTLOOK TUMBLES.  What is more worrisome - and suggests this spike is entirely unsustainable is the outlook for capex and tech spending dropped, average workweek expectations shrank, and the number of employees is expected to fall.

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