Nueva Democracia: JAN 30-1 – Feb 1 2022 Part 1-2 SIT ECON y POL

JAN 30-1 – Feb 1 2022 Part 1-2 SIT ECON y POL

ND denounce- debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco

ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS

Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

Quick News:

THIS TIGHT LABOR MARKET ACTUALLY ASSURES A STAGFLATION RECESSION

One of the biggest misconceptions right now is that the tight labor market proves the economy is strong. Far from it.

The following article by David Haggith was published on The Great Recession Blog:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2022-02-01/tight-labor-market-actually-assures-stagflation-recession

I try to point out risks I believe most people do not want to see or cannot see because they don’t fit the norm by which people construct their perception of reality. I am accustomed, therefore, to being scoffed at because I am out of step with the thinking of the time, and the majority must be right … as must the experts.

Presently, the scoffing has been over my brazen claim that recession is already on our doorstep. I’ll lay out the evidence for the recession that is invisibly surrounding us in my next article — just as it was when Ben Bernanke infamously claimed there was no recession anywhere in sight after the Great Recession had already begun. The greatest experts, it turns out, can miss seeing the greatest recessions even when they are standing knee-deep in the middle of one because the recession doesn’t fit the way they are accustomed to seeing reality. Before I lay out the evidence of recession, however, I want to dig away at the economic misconceptions involved in the scoffing.

The scoffing is based, in good part, on the idea that a recession is not even possible when consumers are sitting on wheel barrows full of cash with 10-million job openings at 3.9% unemployment. That is normal thinking applied to utterly abnormal times in which consumers actually brought spending forward to lay in supplies for bad times and are now hunkering down.

Unemployment right now is nothing but a mirage: normally one believes the unemployment rate is super low because the economy is scorching hot so that job openings are high because the economy needs additional workers to ramp up production to new highs to meet intense demand. Normally, one would be right. These COVID times are far outside of the norm. As I’ve pointed out before, unemployment fell off a cliff the second extended benefits ended with the termination of government COVID stimulus plans. People thought the termination of “stimmies” would bring the workers back — that easy money was the only thing keeping them from working. They were mistaken.

Did everyone suddenly go back to work? Is that why unemployment fell off a cliff? No. The unemployment rate plunged like no time before because suddenly no one was eligible for unemployment benefits because they were well past the normal period of eligibility as soon the extension ended. It was as simple as that. While many did go back to work, many did not.

As of the third quarter of 2021, 50.3% of U.S. adults 55 and older said they were out of the labor force due to retirement, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of the most recent official labor force data. In the third quarter of 2019, before the onset of the pandemic, 48.1% of those adults were retired.

See Chart at:

https://i0.wp.com/www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ft_2021.11.04_retirement_02.png?w=500&ssl=1

Blocked! The print out

Go to Pew Research:

at:

SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2022-02-01/tight-labor-market-actually-assures-stagflation-recession

----

FIDELITY EXPLAINS WHY WE LIVE IN A BITCOIN-FIRST WORLD, PLAIN & SIMPLE

“...bitcoin should be considered first and separate from all other digital assets that have come after it...”

====

WTI DIPS AFTER GASOLINE INVENTORIES BUILD FOR 5TH STRAIGHT WEEK

After two weeks of surprise builds, crude inventories unexpectedly drewdown last week but gasoline stocks continue to build (5th week in a row)...

After two weeks of surprise builds, crude stocks unexpectedly drewdown last week but gasoline stocks continue to build (5th week in a row).

See Chart:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-02-01_13-35-30.jpg?itok=9N5ijR_8

WTI was hovering just below $88.50 ahead of the print and faded very modestly after the disappointingly large build in gasoline stocks...

See Chart:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-02-01_13-39-11.jpg?itok=8icIwKkx

Finally, it is worth noting that the wintry weather headed for Texas so far looks less likely to lead to a repeat of last February’s cold snap that triggered catastrophic blackouts and left more than 200 people dead.

….

SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/wti-dips-after-gasoline-inventories-build-5th-straight-week

----

ALPHABET EXPLODES 7% HIGHER AFTER BEATING ESTIMATES ACROSS THE BOARD, 20-FOR-ONE STOCK SPLIT

Google crushes it, and shorts are getting crushed in response...

It appears that GOOGL is going after the reddit crowd: this is how CFO Porat explained the stock split: "The reason for the split is it makes our shares more accessible. We thought it made sense to do; the timing is to increase the number of authorized shares."

In kneejerk reaction, GOOGL stock is surging some 7% after hours, and is pushing not just its immediate advertising peers Snap, Pinterest, Meta, and Twitter higher, but is lifting the entire Nasdaq.

See Chart:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/unnamed%20%2838%29_0.png?itok=gWTnB7xO

….

SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/alphabet-explodes-7-higher-after-beating-estimates-across-board

----

CAN BIDEN REALLY FLAUNT THE "STRONGEST GROWTH IN FOUR DECADES"?

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

The Biden tweet states that “THIS IS NO ACCIDENT.” He is right. It is more like a KEYNESIAN TRAINWRECK...

I was surprised to see a tweet from President Biden showing the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of the United States for 2021 compared to the average GDP growth under other presidents. The Tweet stated “This didn’t happen by accident. Because of the actions we took, last year we achieved the fastest economic growth in nearly four decades.”

See Chart:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/image-600x572.png?itok=sha-ypwg

The first thing we must remind the president is that a recovery from a massive crisis is not “growth.”

Unfortunately, this marketing tactic is not new.

When Biden was vice-president under Obama, they always compared growth and jobs of the president’s tenure excluding the first year, 2009.

Presidents tend to compare their figures favourably, but to talk about 2021 as the “fastest economic growth in nearly four decades” is misleading.

First, recovering the GDP after a massive crisis is not growth. After falling 3.5%, a 5.7% recovery is not “the fastest economic growth” in forty years. It is a bounce. Furthermore, when inventory build contributed a massive 4.9 percentage points to the 6.9% increase in real GDP of the fourth quarter, we should be cautious. This factor is likely to fade in the first quarter and points to slower growth in 2022.

Second, because 2020 and 2021 saw the largest increase in federal debt in decades. After a $3.1 trillion deficit in 2020, the largest in history, and another historic record deficit in 2021 of $2.7 trillion, the United States’ economy has shown a much larger debt increase than GDP recovery. Current-dollar GDP increased by $2.10 trillion in 2021 to a level of $22.99 trillion, in contrast to a decrease of 2.2 percent, or $478.9 billion, in 2020. This means that the United States economy has barely grown at all after adjusting for the massive increase in debt.

The United States government has consumed 3.5 times more debt than the GDP accumulated in two years

Third, because the 2021 GDP growth comes with the highest inflation figure in 39 years, a 7% increase in CPI. This means that real wages have plummeted, and consumers are suffering while small and medium enterprises see declining margins.

The slowdown in economic growth that the United States is likely to see in 2022 is an important risk. Industrial production, retail sales and job creation have slowed down notably in the past three months. Let us not forget that the labor force participation rate has been stagnant for a year.

These figures show that the recovery is extremely complicated. More importantly, what these figures show is the extremely poor multiplier effect of government spending and the stimulus plans.

If we put this recovery in the context of the largest monetary and fiscal stimulus in recent history, with two record-high deficit prints, what the Biden tweet shows is the poorest recovery adjusted for debt and monetary support in many decades.

No administration since World War II has used such immense policy actions to deliver above-trend growth and a rapid recovery. However, despite the almost unlimited use of government spending and Federal Reserve resources, including negative real rates and the lowest borrowing cost of government debt in decades, the reality shows an extremely poor and diminishing return of the fiscal and monetary space.

This is also the problem of many economists’ and investment banks’ analysis. No one seems to care about the massive debt surge and the appalling return on investment of the stimulus plans. If there is something that resembles “growth,” politicians are happy.

But there is a much deeper issue. The accumulated debt will be a burden on growth and jobs in the future, is likely to trigger massive tax increases and, additionally, the placebo effect of the spending plans fades away rapidly. The United States government consumes $1 trillion stimulus plans as of it did not matter.

There is a bounce after such massive adrenaline injection into the economy. But the bounce is clearly insufficient and low quality. The result is higher inflation and no discernible multiplier effect of the spending programs approved because most of the recovery comes from the re-opening of the economy, not from stimulus.

This, unfortunately, is typical in many economies. A lot more debt for weaker growth and higher inflation.

The Biden tweet states that “this is no accident.” He is right. It is more like a Keynesian trainwreck.

….

SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/can-biden-really-flaunt-strongest-growth-four-decades

----

US DOMESTIC POLITICS

Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption.

We want to know HOW TO HELP AOC!

AOC TAKES BREAK FROM TWITTER AFTER MEAN TWEETS TRIGGER ANXIETY

Many socialists are sad for her

….

We need to know details about her status. I have medical Drs in my family.

Not psychologists but their friends can help. Call me at 215 285 7235. Hugo

====

The assault to capitol was an act of rebellion from people Agst Electoral fraud..

'SOMEONE OPENED THE DOORS FROM THE INSIDE,' JAN. 6 DEFENSE ATTORNEY SAYS

"The outer doors cast from solid bronze would require a bazooka, an artillery shell, or C4 military-grade explosives to breach..."

….

Since the main point is electoral fraud: the how & why this fraud happen is the maim point to investigate, not the how people get inside, unless there is nasty intention to eliminate the other side of the party system (Dems vs Reps). IF legal violence is set as base for the other violence (as expected) then both parties should be declared obsolete in American Politics. A New party system is required besides new rules for Election. How to create real democracy in US is the main problem. Bazookas will not open the inside doors for new Democracy: this is a ridiculous debate between obsolete parties (Dems & Reps).

====

YES: They must be held accountable, IF A REAL A SUPREME COURT EXIST

COVID TESTING COMPANY FAKED RESULTS, LIED TO PATIENTS AND IMPROPERLY STORED SAMPLES: LAWSUIT

"These sham testing centers threatened the health and safety of our communities. They must be held accountable..."

….

I don’t think a new Supreme Court will emerge with Biden’ regime. Members of Supreme Court should be elected democratically & must have total independence from a political regime. There is not other way to get balance & avoid Political violence.

====

This is WHY we need a NEW SUPREME COURT to indict them

"ILL-FOUNDED" LOCKDOWNS HAD "LITTLE PUBLIC HEALTH EFFECT"; ANALYSIS OF 24 STUDIES CONCLUDES

". Lockdowns Had little to no public health effects, they have imposed enormous economic and social costs where they have been adopted..."

====

ILLINOIS DEMOCRAT REP. CALLS FOR "QUARANTINE TO OBSERVE" THOSE REFUSING VACCINES

"To prevent the spread of a dangerously contagious or infectious disease."

====

COVID TESTING COMPANY FAKED RESULTS, LIED TO PATIENTS AND IMPROPERLY STORED SAMPLES: LAWSUIT

"These sham testing centers threatened the health and safety of our communities. They must be held accountable..."

====

BILL MAHER IS RIGHT: IT'S THE LEFT THAT HAS GOTTEN MORE RADICAL