Feb 15 2022 Part 1-2 SIT ECON y POL
ND denounce- debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
WHAT IS GOING ON IN UKRAINE. QUE PASA EN UKRANIA?
Answer: CHANCES OF WW3 because invasion & militarization of Ukraine
To understand this we need to know the violation of Minsk Agreement
THE MINSK AGREEMENT
Blinken said ‘Believes’ in Minsk agreement but we need to move forward:
“Ukraine Can Move Forward on Donbass Special Status Using Minsk Agreements”
Russia has repeatedly pointed out Kiev's failure to adhere to the requirements of the Minsk agreements while outright violating them. Moscow has stressed that by failing to follow the accord, Ukraine is perpetuating the conflict in its east and possibly preparing to resolve it using military means, said Blinken.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has stated that he believes Ukraine could move forward beyond Minks agreement by implementing a special status for the Donbass region with "appropriate sequencing". He went on to add that steps towards this status should be taken in accordance with the Minsk agreements.
[[ Blinken is faking respect to Minsk agreement with such “appropiate-sequencing ]]
"The [Minsk] agreements speak of SPECIAL STATUS FOR THE DONBAS and I believe that with the appropriate sequencing, Ukrainians would be prepared to move forward", Blinken said.
RUSIAN VIEW according to Blinken:
“Ukraine's Long List of Failures at Implementing Minsk Agreements” said Russian
The US secretary of state's claims contradict Russia's view of the problem, as the Kremlin has repeatedly accused Ukraine of failing to adhere to the Minsk agreements, holding back the implementation of their provisions, and outright violating them.
One of the most recent examples of the latter was Kiev's decision to introduce a bill in parliament that would deny fighters of the self-proclaimed people’s republics in the country's east amnesty once the conflict is over. The Minsk agreements state clearly that such an amnesty must be provided for all people living in the rebellious areas once peace is achieved.
REAL RUSSIAN VIEW:
The Minsk accords stipulate the creation of a special status for the Donbass region via constitutional amendments that would introduce a decentralised model of government in Ukraine. The accord never mentioned any steps that either Russia or the self-proclaimed republics had to take first for Kiev to carry out the said constitutional reform (which it has not implemented so far).
Kiev (capital of Ukraine) was also supposed to start negotiations with the Lugansk and Donetsk People's Republics on carrying out legitimate elections on their territory under Ukrainian law. However, the Ukrainian government has systematically delayed holding these talks, something that Moscow has repeatedly pointed out.
Western nations backing the regime in Kiev, which came to power after a 2014 coup, have also contributed to Ukraine's numerous violations of the Minsk accords. According to the agreement, Kiev had to expel all foreign military forces as well as military equipment.
Instead of this, the Ukrainian government continued to REQUEST NEW "DEFENSIVE" ARMAMENTS FROM NATO countries (US-UK), and they continued to provide weapons – such as Javelin missile launchers capable of destroying enemy armed vehicles.
[[ So, NATO created a state of war inside Ukraine with the support of west foreign countries, US-UK included]] to NATO. Western countries also routine sending military instructors to Ukraine, as well as mercenaries, according to Russian Defence Ministry's information ]].
[[In short:
NATO+ US-UK converted Ukraine into a military barrack to attack RU. This explain RU sending of Tanks to Ukraine. Ukraine should remain independent State from NATO: that was in the Minsk Agreement: An Independent sovereign State with decentralized regional gov status.
What is coming?
It is expected RU bombing of military NATO barracks without affecting the civilian population.
When this will happen? VERY SOON , said most world-analysts on this issue.
So: be ready for WW3 & its nuclear contamination. I guess only US billonaries are ready whit their bunkers with provision for several months. The rest expect new mask to avoid nuke cont
Why this fear? Because more than 12 States will be bombed if we attack RU-China in WW3
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ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
CRUDE CRUSHED, STOCKS SURGE, BITCOIN BID AS US-RUSSIA TENSIONS 'EASE'
by Tyler Durden
..."Run Away!"
Putin folds and the stock market rejoices, crude sees its geopolitical risk premium cut, safe-haven bonds and bullion are sold, but bitcoin gets a strong bid... then Biden steals the jam out of the market's donut.
The White House issued this graphic representation of what happened this morning on the Ukraine-Russia border...
It seems everyone forgot about the hotter than expected PPI print which left rate-hike odds up near cycle highs with a 60% chance of a 50bps hike in March holding steady...
See Chart:
March Rate-high expectations
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-02-15_12-15-14.jpg?itok=UbLqdpIF
As Europe opened and reports came out that Putin was withdrawing some troops, futures exploded higher. Then the record PPI print hit and stocks stalled into the cash open, where they were bought... everything was awesome until Biden spoke late on and said "a Russia attack on Ukraine is still very much a possibility... and Russian troops are very much in a threatening position" and that sent stocks lower fast...and then a massive buying program stepped in and ripped everything to the highs of the day... Small Caps and Nasdaq outperformed, Dow lagged but still managed to gain over 1%...
See Chart:
See Putin , PPI and Biden expectations
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-02-15_13-00-06.jpg?itok=3cUtfD2o
The last 30 minutes was crazy...
See Chart:
NYSE Uptick -Downtick
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-02-15_12-54-23.jpg?itok=p90SL_tg
The S&P rallied up to its 200DMA and held it today while The Dow could not quite make it...
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-02-15_12-03-40.jpg?itok=_pMjuerj
Today was the 2nd biggest short-squeeze since June 2021 as 'Most Shorted' stocks soared almost 5%....
See Chart:
Most Shorter Stocks
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-02-15_12-52-35.jpg?itok=OGDAHB8h
The credit market continues to worry about the coming recession...
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-02-15_12-12-20.jpg?itok=VKAvMcmQ
Bonds were mixed today with the long-end dramatically underperforming (30Y +8bps, 2Y unch)...
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-02-15_12-39-28.jpg?itok=K0DFH-6R
The dollar limped lower today...
See Chart
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-02-15_12-18-47.jpg?itok=v7LkbgqU
Aside from the malarkey in US equities, the energy complex was the most impacted by the Russia headlines as crude pricesa puked all the "invasion imminent" gains and more with WTI back below $91...
See Chart
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-02-15_12-22-26.jpg?itok=GM4V0Gpx
The possible good news (for any American who drives and also for Joe Biden's approval rating) is that a continued drop in the risk premium in crude could stall an expected ongoing surge in gas pump prices...
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-02-15_05-11-42_0.jpg?itok=v7GDX3Uv
Gold was also dumped today, but less so. erasing the 'invasion imminent' premium...
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-02-15_12-25-19.jpg?itok=_dEhGt81
And finally, it appears Omicron is over...
See Chart:
US daily covid cases vs US daily Covid deats
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-02-15_12-06-53.jpg?itok=16l3JIiR
Cases are back to pre-Omicron levels and deaths are rolling over... and Putin is retreating?! Time for a beer!
….
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/crude-crushed-stocks-surge-bitcoin-bid-us-russia-tensions-ease
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NOMURA WARNS OF RELIEF-RALLY 'SQUEEZE' INTO OPEX FROM MASSIVE RISE IN "FUEL FOR A MELT-UP"
... "virtuous" second-order Greeks look set to take-over and further accelerate the spot rally / vol compression into expiration...
See Charts:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/image013%20%285%29.jpg?itok=VaZLRHuI
The Nomura strategist adds that it’s not just Equities product Vol position in the “cross-hairs" - we have seen absolutely incredible demand for Credit (HYG / high yield) hedging here and away as Spread product is a known “loser” with tighter FCI and negative impacts of QT “crowding-out” from Fixed-Income investors…and Dealers are MASSIVELY “Short Gamma with EXTREME Short Delta,” with 38% of the Gamma running-off Friday, setting this one up to be extra spicy
See Charts:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/image019%20%284%29.jpg?itok=-L-bl0xa
This is particularly interesting too because we also see “Corporate Credit” (spread WIDENING) as the large NEGATIVE macro factor price catalyst for SPX and the second worst for Nasdaq per Quant Insight…meaning a substantial RALLY here in HYG could add additional gasoline to further “sling-shot” an Equities mechanical rally.
And finally, the notional short base is substantial, particularly in “macro” ETF at 98.3%ile..
See Chart:
Shorts in National $Bn as of 01-31-2022
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/image023.jpg?itok=DAQnn6-7
which will likely elicit further “buy to cover” fuel.
So unless we see a serious pushback from US officials to deny the headlines that Putin is pulling back, the market - at least into OpEx - has significant potential from positioning, greeks, and macro-hedges to melt-up.
….
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nomura-warns-relief-rally-squeeze-opex-massive-rise-fuel-melt
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CRUDE CRUSHED, STOCKS SURGE, BITCOIN BID AS US-RUSSIA TENSIONS 'EASE'
."Run Away!"
It seems everyone forgot about the hotter than expected PPI print which left rate-hike odds up near cycle highs with a 60% chance of a 50bps hike in March holding steady...
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-02-15_12-15-14.jpg?itok=UbLqdpIF
As Europe opened and reports came out that Putin was withdrawing some troops, futures exploded higher. Then the record PPI print hit and stocks stalled into the cash open, where they were bought... everything was awesome until Biden spoke late on and said "a Russia attack on Ukraine is still very much a possibility... and Russian troops are very much in a threatening position" and that sent stocks lower fast...and then a massive buying program stepped in and ripped everything to the highs of the day... Small Caps and Nasdaq outperformed, Dow lagged but still managed to gain over 1%...
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-02-15_13-00-06.jpg?itok=3cUtfD2o
The last 30 minutes was crazy...
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-02-15_12-54-23.jpg?itok=p90SL_tg
The S&P rallied up to its 200DMA and held it today while The Dow could not quite make it...
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-02-15_12-03-40.jpg?itok=_pMjuerj
Today was the 2nd biggest short-squeeze since June 2021 as 'Most Shorted' stocks soared almost 5%....
See Chart:
Most shorted stocks
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-02-15_12-52-35.jpg?itok=OGDAHB8h
The credit market continues to worry about the coming recession...
See Chart;
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-02-15_12-12-20.jpg?itok=VKAvMcmQ
Bonds were mixed today with the long-end dramatically underperforming (30Y +8bps, 2Y unch)...
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-02-15_12-39-28.jpg?itok=K0DFH-6R
The dollar limped lower today...
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-02-15_12-18-47.jpg?itok=v7LkbgqU
Aside from the malarkey in US equities, the energy complex was the most impacted by the Russia headlines as crude pricesa puked all the "invasion imminent" gains and more with WTI back below $91...
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-02-15_12-22-26.jpg?itok=GM4V0Gpx
The possible good news (for any American who drives and also for Joe Biden's approval rating) is that a continued drop in the risk premium in crude could stall an expected ongoing surge in gas pump prices...
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-02-15_05-11-42_0.jpg?itok=v7GDX3Uv
Gold was also dumped today, but less so. erasing the 'invasion imminent' premium...
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-02-15_12-25-19.jpg?itok=_dEhGt81
And finally, it appears Omicron is over...
See Chart:
US daily covid cases vs US daily covid deaths
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-02-15_12-06-53.jpg?itok=16l3JIiR
Cases are back to pre-Omicron levels and deaths are rolling over... and Putin is retreating?! Time for a beer!
….
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/crude-crushed-stocks-surge-bitcoin-bid-us-russia-tensions-ease
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
The effects of WW3 will be worse IF we silence the freedom of press
...veer from the official story and you are a crazy conspiracy theorist..., and should be shunned and denied any platform from which to speak to a large number of people...
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This is NY State terrorism. Incredible & shameless
NEW YORK CITY FIRES NEARLY 1,500 WORKERS FOR REFUSING COVID-19 VACCINE: MAYOR
“Our goal was always to vaccinate, not terminate,”
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WHEN WILL JAKE SULLIVAN - BIDEN'S NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR - BE INDICTED FOR RUSSIAGATE LIES?
It is increasingly clear that Sullivan was at the very heart of the efforts to discredit Trump and to pervert our justice system...
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SENATE REPUBLICANS MOVE TO DELAY VOTE ON BIDEN'S FED VICE-CHAIR NOMINEE
"On 36 questions for the record, for example, Ms. Raskin claimed she either did ‘not recall' or was ‘unaware'. Her repeated forgetfulness defies credulity..."
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
RUSSIA AND CHINA INKED HUGE OIL DEALS AMID SOARING UKRAINE TENSIONS
...part of a broad-based strategy to circumvent to as great a degree as possible the effects of international sanctions against Russia.
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BIDEN: ATTACK ON UKRAINE "STILL VERY MUCH A POSSIBILITY" - RUSSIAN DRAW DOWN "NOT VERIFIED"
"I will not send American servicemen to fight in Ukraine" but adds caveat: "If Russia targets Americans in Ukraine, we will respond forcefully."
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PUTIN SAYS "OF COURSE" RUSSIA DOESN'T WANT WAR
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz agrees: "people of this generation find it hard to imagine war in Europe."
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UKRAINE BANKS & DEFENSE MINISTRY WEBSITES DOWN AMID CYBERATTACK FEARS
Ukraine's cybersecurity center says websites of the Defense Ministry, Privatbank and Oshadbank are under attack...
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SPUTNIK NEWS : https://sputniknews.com/
- World Bank Warns of Ignoring Debts in the Private Sector, Poorer Countries at Greatest Risk
- US Republicans Propose Bill to Sanction Russia in Response to 'Ukraine Incursion' Stupid: this obstruct the peaceful negotiation proposed by France-Germany on this issue
- Durham Probe Shows 'Power Elite' Stoked New Cold War With RU, Tulsi Gabbard Says
- Biden Says Ready for Diplomacy With Moscow But Will Respond 'Decisively' If Russia 'Invades' Ukraine: Another stupid threat! Be with god & devil at same time is ridiculous
- Kremlin Responds to 'Invasion' News: UKR Should Set Alarms & See If Anything Happens
- NATO Says Received Ukraine's Request for International Emergency Assistance F US-UK
- ‘Ukrainian Stance Doesn’t Matter’: Bellicose US Posture Makes Kiev-Moscow Talks Harder. RU said clearly que se orina en las amenazas del US. Este país ya retiro sus tropas
- Blinken pide a Lavrov Written Response to Proposals y Lavrov respondió con un pedo.
- Two Syrian Soldiers Killed, 9 Injured in Attacks By Terrorists in Idlib, RU Military Says
- Zelensky's Sarcasm About Alleged Date of Russian Invasion Crashes Markets
- UK Ex-Minister Says 'We All Hate the Russians Now' Maybe ‘all’ stupid people in UK
- Israeli Conman Who Swindled 10 Mln Dollars From Women on Tinder Says He Can Make It in Hollywood.
- Russian Defence Minister Shoigu Inspect Naval Exercises in Mediterranean
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Feb 15 2022 PART 2 or update: SIT EC y POL SPANISH ++
REBELION
US: LA NOSTALGIA DE HILARIÓN Ilka Oliva Cronica d inmigrante ltino
FMI: Cuatro décadas, ¿y los beneficios sociales? JJ Paz y-Miño Cepeda
Foros virtuales, “trabajo decente” y retórica indecente Eduardo Camín
Econ-COL: EL DEMOLEDOR INFORME FAO-PMA Hedelberto López
Depend: US-UE buscan reducir dependenc d China en sector estratégic
Ecol S: Eliminar dióxido de carbono, clave para mitigar cambio climát
Salvad: LUCES Y SOMBRAS EN TORNO AL BITCOIN Julia Evelyn
Uruguay, DEMOCRACIA SOSTENIDA EN LA IMPUNIDAD Nicolás C
ALC; Pto Rico: ¿NO HAY CHAVOS?
ARG: Si contamin, mata y empobrec: no es progreso, es saqueo» DA
Econ; EXPORTANDO RIESGOS Fabio Teixeira
San Valentín: Celebremos el amor sin contaminarlos de consumismo
BOL: Juicio ordinario contra J Añez, caso «Golpe de Estado II» Galo A
Chile: Alarma patronal: ¿rebelión de los “independientes”? Pablo T
Chile : Bloqueos d camioneros, migrantes y estado de excep en l norte
Cuba: CÁTEDRA CUBANA DE ESTUDIOS SOBRE AFRODESCENDENCIAS
España LA ULTRADERECHIZACIÓN Rafael Silva
España Golpes de Estado y pronunciamient militares Víctor Arrogante
Cuba: Univ de Ciencias Médic de Stgo de Cuba: efeméride fundacional
PAL: Cuando hay paz sin justicia, la guerra solo cambia de forma A V
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