Nueva Democracia: Feb 3 2022 Part 1-2 SIT ECON y POL

Feb 3 2022 Part 1-2 SIT ECON y POL

ND denounce- debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco

ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS

Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

Quick News:

SUICIDE? HOW SOME LIFE INSURANCE COMPANIES ARE DEALING WITH EXPERIMENTAL VACCINES DEATHS

An insurance company has been backed up in court after refusing to pay out a policy after the insured died from the vaccine.

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JPMORGAN'S TRADING DESK SCRAMBLES TO CONTAIN THE FALLOUT FROM TODAY'S CRASH

by Tyler Durden

"Today’s action is expressing a view that this is idiosyncratic rather than systemic in nature"

After a catastrophic day for markets, which saw the S&P suffer its worst one-day loss since 2021 and the Nasdaq tumble the most since 2020, Amazon arrived with what was a Hail Mary earnings report which sent its stock soaring, and helping cut the Nasdaq's nearly 4% loss in half, but as we noted earlier - aside for the Prime membership hike and the solid AWS results - the earnings report was actually not all that good, and the once legendary growth is now gone.

See Chart:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/amazon%20revenue%20growth_0.jpg?itok=RhHlBBuD

Worse, as we first showed, margins for both North America and International e-commerce are now negative and only AWS is keeping the company afloat.

See Chart:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/AMZN%20q4%202021_0.jpg?itok=DVDWpjoB

Perhaps realizing the tenuous nature of the after hours bounce, JPMorgan's trading desk is out this afternoon with an attempt to contain the dismal mood that has gripped markets (now that not even Marko Kolanovic's weekly permabullish sermons do much to boost market optimism). Here is what the bank's trader Andrew Tyler wrote:

The FB-induced selloff took MegaCap Tech with it but what is interesting is the relatively muted reaction in Equity vol, especially considering the moves in the 10Y yield (product of BOE/ECB today).

For avid readers of this note, you will recognize the MOVE Index vs. VIX Index chart but there are some additional vol-related charts below.

See Charts:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/move%20vs%20vix%20feb%202.jpg?itok=Kp-lbgeZ

Read this conclusion:

My conclusion is that today’s action is expressing a view that this is idiosyncratic rather than systemic in nature. AMZN earnings can help stabilize the NDX. One part of the Bear thesis has been that Tech is in bubble territory. Marko points out that FB’s FY2022 P/E is now trading at 19% discount to that of the SPX (16.3x vs. 20.1x). FB’s forward PE is lower than any broad market at any point since 2014, ex-Mar 2020. This includes times when Fed Funds was at 2.5% vs. current ZIRP level.

His conclusion is that talk of a Tech Bubble seems misplaced, especially when we have Tech stocks that are now technically Value stocks.

Despite his uplifting undertone, Tyler concludes cautiously, writing the he remains of the view "that it is prudent to wait until you see the combination of Fed clarity (which may come post CPI print next Thursday) and VIX under 20." Those two conditions need to be satisfied before we can see a sustainable rally, according to the JPM trader.

Where to hide in the mean-time? His advice is to "consider commodities or commodity-related equities."

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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgans-trading-desk-scrambles-contain-fallout-todays-crash

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THE ROADMAP TO THE NEXT RECESSION

by Tyler Durden

The countdown has begun.

After repeated calls by this website that the Fed is hiking (as much as "six or seven" times to paraphrase Jamie Dimon) right into a slowdown and eventually, a recession, last week Deustche Bank's head of thematic research Jim Reid went the next step and published his monthly chartbook called “The road to the next recession" (available to pro subscribers), and writes that "with inflation rampant, the US employment and output gaps as good as closed, the Fed playing catch-up, and the yield curve flattening, it’s fair to say that the classic ingredients for the next recession are falling into place."

However, where Reid diverges with our - and BofA CIO Michael Hartnett view - that a recession could strike as soon as the second half, his chartbook suggests that those waiting for the cycle to roll over imminently will likely have to be patient.

The reason for that is that Reid's guesstimate for when the next recession might start was mid-2024. If true, he writes, this expansion would be only just over 4 years. While this may feel short, Reid shows in the following chart that this would still be the 8th longest US cycle out of the 35 over the last 170 years. And that, of course, assumes that the events of March 2020 were sufficient to reset the business cycle - the longest one in US history, which started in June 2009 and ended with the covid crash - instead of merely pushing the US economy into "super late stage" on the back of a trillions of brand new debt, without the critical deleveraging which marks the true reset of the business cycle which of course never happened.

See Chart:

Length of every US business cycle (Months) since the 1850s

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/length%20of%20business%20cycle.jpg?itok=oUlQL5hA

Reid then observes that all four of the previous cycles (since 1982) have been in the top six longest of all time so what’s to stop this current cycle lasting as long? Here are the things he lists:

First, the output and employment gaps have closed much earlier in this cycle than the other four;
Second, interest rate rises (likely) and yield curve flattening are generally happening much earlier;
Third, inflation is accelerating at a pace not seen at this stage in these previous cycles. The third point is probably the swing factor. Over the 1982-2020 period and four very long cycles, inflation was largely controlled by exogenous disinflationary forces. As such whenever the economy looked likely to roll over, the authorities had carte blanche to loosen policy to extend the cycle. It doesn’t look likely they’ll be so fortunate this time and will have to choose between tackling inflation or reducing economic risks.

As an interesting aside, the third longest cycle in history occurred in the mid-to-late 1960s when the Fed responded to equity market weakness by cutting rates rather than continuing to raise them in what was an inflationary environment. This extended the cycle but arguably locked in higher inflation before we even got to the inflationary 1970s. CPI ended the 1960s at 6.2% - roughly where it is now - and had already forced a hawkish Fed pivot. They arguably had to hike more aggressively than they might have needed to a few years earlier and this led to the delayed onset of the recession.

Finally, here are a handful of useful visual themes highlighted by Reid, charting the progression to the next recession:

Every recession in the last 70 years has only happened AFTER 2s10s has inverted... Good news we’re still at c.+75-80bps, bad news we were at +160bps last March. Fed hikes in ‘22 could invert curve in H1 ‘23, especially if history is to be believed (see next slide)…

See Chart:

US recessions average 12 to 18 months from inversion to recession

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/rec%201_0.jpg?itok=OP2ckUN6

Average movement in 2s10s US yield curve in Fed Tightening Cycles since 1955 by month (bp change)... the curve almost always flattens after the Fed hikes, on average c.80bps in the first year.. So, could we invert in H1 ‘23 and start the countdown clock to recession?

See Chart:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/average%20movements%20in%202s1s0.jpg?itok=paxNRfSi

See more charts at:

SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/road-next-recession

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AMAZON EXPLODES 18% HIGHER ON PRIME MEMBERSHIP INCREASE, AWS BEAT

Nasdaq saved by the Amazon...

CEO Andy Jassy said that “as expected over the holidays, we saw HIGHER COSTS driven by LABOR SUPPLY SHORTAGES AND INFLATIONARY PRESSURES, and these issues persisted into the first quarter due to Omicron”.

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Si los precios subieron en el mercado y el labor demando aumento del salario minimo como ocurrio en Seattle donde la socialista Kshama Sawant impuso el salario minimo de 15 USD por hora y otras politicas en favor del labor (por eso gano las elecciones por 4ta vez). Esto fue lo que no hizo Amazon y por esto colapso su empresa. Cayo por la ‘presion inflacionaria’ lo reconocio la CEO Andy Jassy.

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AMZN la empresa mas grande y prosperas del pais callo por la presion inflacionaria.

NOMURA'S "WORST CASE SCENARIO" IS NOW IN PLAY

By Tyler Durden

...forcing yet-another “lunge to the other side of the boat”

Update (1700ET): No dips were bought in FB today as Zuck saw his net worth evaporate to the tune of around $30 billion. But, after hours - following a 7%-plus plunge in AMZN's share price in concert with the tech wreck on the day - Amazon's earnings and outlook sparked an astonishing surge of nearly 20% (adding around $15 billion to Jeff Bezos net worth)...

See Chart:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-02-03_14-04-38.jpg?itok=gJBb851C

Here's the thing though...

As Nomura's Charlie McElligott noted earlier, we have gradually "burned off" those obvious "first stage of mechanical rally" flows... and at the same time ripped through various stops at critical technical levels.

But...

Tonight's move in AMZN is now a major problem for markets. In fact it is, as McElligott warned, a "potential worst case scenario."

1) Funds sell Delta and grab back into Vol / Gamma as a reaction to FB on concerns it will knock-on into rest of Equities, just as funds had begun re-risking...

2) ...because the fear is that so many funds are going to “take an L” here on the sheer magnitude of the $drawdown that it will cause liquidation that spills-over into other “liquid” Growth names...

3) ...and then, AMZN releases absolutely blow-out +++ numbers later, forcing yet-another “lunge to the other side of the boat” as the aforementioned flows then reverse.

Simply out, the Nomura strategist "nailed it"...

1) FB's collapse smashed into every other equity index...

See Chart:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-02-03_14-16-54.jpg?itok=zqbg2JHO

2) Growth stocks were systemically clubbed like a baby seal...

See Chart:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-02-03_14-18-04.jpg?itok=orW32Jwo

3) And then AMZN explodes higher, tearing the underlying indices higher...

See Chart:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-02-03_14-19-23.jpg?itok=rQFSu80F

All of which leaves stops having been run, positioning chaotic, and gamma extremely offsides (remember this move in AMZN happened after the options market was closed)...

See Charts:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-02-03_14-21-09.jpg?itok=VVlVZQaP

AMZN's earnings after the bell today appear to be the last, best hope for rebound-betting-bulls as the index-level impact of the FB debacle is very significant for the broad Equities recovery which was being led higher by said Nasdaq “Mega-Cap Tech” again above-all in recent days...

See Chart:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-02-03_09-12-15.jpg?itok=L_NJ1MIr

Nomura's Charlie McElligott notes that the FB mess also hurts the immediate extension of the recent power bounce in Equities in a second-order fashion too, because at the US Equities cash close - and before numbers were released - a number of key Global Equities futures had traded just within striking-distance of CTA “buy triggers” (specifically for NKY, Eurostoxx, SPX and Russell 2k per the Nomura QIS model) as a potential next “upside flow” catalyst for the Equities in the day(s) ahead.

Finally, as SpotGamma highlights, "the downside risks here are material."

A fair amount of gamma is positioned at 4600, which adds resistance to a push higher in the S&P before Friday.

See Charts:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/image004%20%287%29.jpg?itok=mkk7X8UI

4500 should be viewed as a large support line, but if it is broken it may set off a fresh bout of extended volatility. Our models seem to suggest 4355 would be the next material support below 4500.

See Chart:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-02-03_09-19-58.jpg?itok=7xbo9Py8

This rally was driven in large part by the reduction in put positions and/or put values (implied vol drop i.e. “vanna trade”) which drives dealer-delta buybacks. We’ve seen that put cover flow stall the last few days, which is not terribly surprising given the magnitude of the rally.

Should demand for downside protection renew, it will add negative deltas to a weakened market.

This suggests dealers would be shorting futures with gamma at/on the negative gamma flip point, and implied volatility elevated.

This means that while we documented our view that ~4300 was a “lower bound” early last week, we’d estimate that something <=4200 may show as a lower bound for second leg down.

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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/downside-risks-here-are-material-mega-positioning-gamma-flip-points-loom

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US DOMESTIC POLITICS

Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption.

CONTROLLING THE GOLD NARRATIVE: THE IMMORAL TRINITY OF WEAK GOVERNANCE, BIG BUSINESS, AND MAINSTREAM MEDIA

“The U.S. press, like the U.S. government, is a corrupt and troubled institution. Corrupt not so much in the sense that it accepts bribes but in a systemic sense. It fails to do what it claims to do, what it should do, and what society expects it to do."

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First the Pharma Corp spread the virus with wrong vax & now they avoid responsabits

ATTORNEYS REPORT SPIKE IN CALLS FOR HELP FROM FAMILIES OF PATIENTS HOSPITALIZED WITH COVID-19

"I call it medical kidnapping..."

I called “terrorism”

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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)

Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis, D rest in limbo

China Olympic bring PEACE to the world and failure to US-NATO sabotage

OLYMPIC WINTER GAMES BRING IN BILLIONS FOR THE IOC

... And that sum has only gotten bigger over the years.

See Chart:

https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/26731.jpeg

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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/olympic-winter-games-bring-billions-ioc

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En Buena hora cae: puso en peligro los bancos de Londres por su phobia anti RU-CH

BOJO'S GOVERNMENT IN CRISIS AS 4 AIDES QUIT AFTER "PEDOPHILE" JAB

The British PM has never appeared more vulnerable.

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Those who support Vax business FAILED. The care for immune system goes up

SASKATCHEWAN PREMIER PLEDGES TO END ALL COVID RESTRICTIONS AS OTTAWA BRACES FOR MORE PROTESTS

"Watch the dominoes fall"...

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WHITE HOUSE REPORT RUSSIA PLANNING FALSE FLAG AGAINST UKRAINE USING 'GRAPHIC VIDEO'

Bizarre US intelligence narrative grabs headlines: "staged false explosion with corpses, actors depicting mourners, and images of destroyed locations and military equipment."

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SPUTNIK NEWS : https://sputniknews.com/

-UK Foreign Sec Says US Has 'Shocking Evidence’ That RU Has Plans to Provoke Ukraine

- Pelosi Warns US Olympians Against Angering 'Ruthless' Chinese Govt During Games

- Russian State Duma Bans Access for Deutsche Welle Journalists

- Florida Man Finds Sniper Rifles in Local Canal With Grandson While Magnet Fishing

- US Imposes Visa Restrictions on Belarusian Nationals Under 'Khashoggi Ban'

- Tens of Thousands Left Without Power in Texas as Winter Storm Blast

- Erdogan Offers Peace Mediation to Russia, Ukraine During Kiev Visit

- US Troop Deployments in Europe Counter Diplomacy, Increase Tensions

- Netherlands Says Ready for Potential Gas Shortage Amid Tensions Around Ukraine

- Lockdowns Had ‘Little to No Effect’ on Covid Mortality