Feb 19 2022 Part 1-2 SIT ECON y POL
ND denounce- debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
GOLD SOARS, CREDIT CRACKS, STOCKS SINK AS PUTIN, POWELL, & THE PRESIDENT PONTIFICATE
by Tyler Durden
...a week dominated by headline-chasing algos.
Today was a microcosm of the week with headlines dominating the swings as traders focused on what Powell will do, what Putin has done (or not), and what the President will threaten to do, and what chaos they will unleash...
All of which erased the Blinken bounce and sent stocks into the red for the week, before a mid-afternoon buying panic ensued to take stocks back perfectly to unchanged before selling off into the long weekend...
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-02-18_13-00-03.jpg?itok=RmwLleMa
The Dow and Nasdaq were the week's biggest losers...
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-02-18_12-55-51.jpg?itok=bRSaouTT
Notably this week's weakness took the S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq down to their YTD closing lows from Jan 27 - which is where everything bounced today...
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-02-18_11-48-18.jpg?itok=_nKXhB9X
DraftKings was clubbed like a baby seal today to its lowest close since April 2020...
See Chart:
DKNG
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-02-18_13-07-37.jpg?itok=_gZdTTIk
Interestingly, as stocks fell, so did rate-hike expectations with the market now pricing in less than 6 hikes by year-end and only a 25% chance of a 50bps hike in March...
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-02-18_11-31-40.jpg?itok=PYgKRj15
Credit markets blew out further this week (HY spreads up for the 4th week of the last 5 to their widest since early Dec 2020)...
See Chart:
S&P500 vs US HY OAS (inv)
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-02-18_11-34-29.jpg?itok=-J1Z0RYq
...and significant fund outflows and spreads popping above the five-year average are signs of stress.
See Chart 7:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/image%20-%202022-02-18T120748.227.png?itok=hAOO7U7C
All of which leaves credit risk notably decoupled from equity risk (as presumably investors still believe The Powell Put will rescue them)...
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-02-18_12-10-26.jpg?itok=Q_aw93-O
The week was a roller coaster for Treasury yields as early weakness gave way to an aggressive bid in the latter half of the week with the short-end outperforming and the long-end unch...
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-02-18_12-19-52.jpg?itok=Y1pdOoR4
The 10Y yield tested above 2.00% again but could not hold it...
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-02-18_12-21-55.jpg?itok=AeZ5bVi_
The Dollar ended the week marginally lower...
See Chart:
Bloomberg Dollar Index
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-02-18_12-23-17.jpg?itok=ZrNgEW5r
Crypto had another tough week as its correlation with big-tech continued to rise..
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-02-18_12-25-50.jpg?itok=c5ckLqzJ
Gold rose for the 3rd straight week, rising over 3% - its best week since May 2021, rising back above $1900, its highest since June 2021...
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-02-18_11-38-02.jpg?itok=QZ1ozneI
This is the best 3-week jump in gold since Aug 2020.
Interestingly, amid all the chaos on the Ukrainian border, oil suffered its first weekly loss of the year as optimism over Iran nuclear talks (and the subsequent supply) sent prices lower. It was a chaotic week however as traders came to terms with the push/pull of Russia/Iran headlines...
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-02-18_11-42-06.jpg?itok=HFyPNUjz
Finally, consensus estimates provide a median probability of a recession in the next 12 months at 15%...
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-02-18_10-15-25.jpg?itok=SoZO2jC9
With quite a distribution (from Guerilla Capital's 60% odds to SocGen's 5% odds)...
See Chart:
US Recession Risk Forecast
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-02-18_10-16-28.jpg?itok=Q9HbJ-Vf
JPM real-time recession tracker shows about an 18% chance of a recession over the next 12 months but rises to 40% over the next 2 years, 60% over the next 3 years, and almost 80% over the next 4 years.
Which may help explain why the market is already pricing in rate-cuts (even more shocking is the fact that the end 2024 rate is below the end 2022 rate!)...screaming recession...
See Chart:
Implied FED Funds Target rate.. Rate cut 2024 <2022
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-02-18_12-33-20.jpg?itok=amILEeD3
What have you done Mr.Powell?!
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Our neoliberal system has been created by the rich & to serve their interest
A HISTORICAL GUIDE TO HOW STOCKS PERFORM DURING TIGHTENING CYCLES
If the economy is slowing while the Fed is hiking, not well...
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NOTHING TO EXPECT FROM THEM. We will follow instead the 10 sugestions from Michael Hudson: “Ten Reforms to Restore Industrial Prosperity” in his book: Killing the Host: How Financial Parasites and DEBT destroy the Global Economy.
And of course we will follow Ray Dalio: “The Changing World Order: The New Paradim” and his 3 biggest issues: A- Big Debt & Debt monetization. B- internal conflicts over wealth and values gap. C- external conflicts with the existing Great Power of US.
I will also follow Atilio Boron: “El nuevo orden imperial y como desmontarlo” y otros artículos referidos a la economía en Latino América.
Tambien seguire los artículos de James Petras sobre “Que es y Que no es el socialism” plus sus nuevos artículos políticos.
Estos y otros autores los trabajo en mi libro “Perspectivas del Socialismo en el US”. Espero terminarlo a fines de Marzo y ya tengo su publicación pagada pues publique en “Nueva Democracia” algunos avances al respecto. Espero me lean, pero tendrán que esperar un mes más para afinar las correcciones que sugieran algunos expertos en el tema. Mi 1er libro: “Autonomias regionales via Reforma Educativa” se publicó en la India en los 80 del siglo pasado y eso me dio para vivir casi un año. Si mi nuevo libro se prohíbe en el US, lo publicare en ARG o en VEN, quizá en Chile, donde nací. A los 2 anios mi madre me trajo a Perú y me rebautizó, por eso tengo 3 pasaportes, pues también soy Americano y amo mucho los 3 países. Si hay WW3 me toca salir. Un millonario del US me ofreció avioneta para mi y mi familia, quiere instalarse en las riveras del Amazonas donde trabaje casi un año con nativos achaninkas, la personalidad de estos nativos fue lo mas hermoso de mi estadía en la selva. No creo que mi familia quiera vivir allí pero si lo llevaría al amigo de la avioneta. En MX publique un Art sobre los nativos que le gusto mucho al millonario del US, son acogedores con los extranjeros: les venden marihuana y los cuidan para que no se los coma un tigre ni las pirañas del rio amazonas.
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IS IT 'MONETIZATION' YET, DR. BERNANKE?
"What we’re doing here is a temporary measure which will be reversed "
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GEOPOLITICAL CRISES: WHAT HAPPENS NEXT IN MARKETS?
... geopolitical events have rarely left a deep scar on markets
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THE COST OF LIVING IN THE US IS RISING TO ABSOLUTELY ABSURD LEVELS
With each passing day, more Americans are waking up and understanding what has happened, and anger is growing all over the nation.
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Critical warning signs from the credit and rates markets are being ignored by tough-talking experts while gold bides its time before it rises in a global financial crisis mathematically too sick to save.
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LUMBER PRICES HAVE NEVER BEEN THIS HIGH AHEAD OF SPRING BUILDING SEASON
"We're out of everything."
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REAL ESTATE INVESTORS ARE BUYING A RECORD SHARE OF US HOMES, SENDING PRICES SOARING
“While record-high home prices are problematic for individual homebuyers, they’re one reason why investor demand is stronger than ever.”
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THE FED IS MISTAKEN: IT'S THE REMOVAL OF INFLATION THAT IS DESTABILIZING, NOT 'LATE' POLICY MOVES
The question now does the Fed engineer a Greenspan-type soft landing (1995) or a Volcker hard-landing? Odds favor a Volcker ending.
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THE FUTURE OF GLOBAL COAL PRODUCTION (2021-2024F)
Despite its large footprint, coal was in high demand in 2021...
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MODERN MONETARY THEORY, AND THE "ECONOMISTS" ADVOCATING FOR IT, WILL DESTROY THE UNITED STATES
It's not really much of a theory. But, hey, they're not really "economists".
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption.
WATCH LIVE: PRESIDENT BIDEN ADDRESSES THE RUSSIA/UKRAINE SITUATION
President Biden stands ready to put the world straight on what narrative they should be paying attention to...
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BUCHANAN: HAS PUTIN WON ROUND ONE IN UKRAINE?
Has not Putin pretty much already realized his principal goal in this crisis - that Ukraine never become a member of NATO?
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Both: Biden & Trump are WW3 mongers: enemies of PEACE. Don’t deserve re-election
WHY IS BIDEN NOW LESS POPULAR THAN TRUMP? = FALSE FLAG
...'lower than Trump' is hardly the first year result
the White House expected...
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We need a third option: A PEOPLE’ FRONT with all Progressive & pro-PEACE parties. We should think in a woman how care for kids & family. We don’t want a pedophile like Hillary & not even a terrorist like Obama, the creator of ISIS and accomplice of stolen gold in Libya and the murder of four member of Bangazi’ US Embassy in Lybia. The ISIS terrorist org is still destroying Syria in complicity with Israel. We don’t need that type of politician in US. We need a PEOPLE’ FRONT with a very strong & clear program toward socialism.
Our Nation have to create a new type of socialism that serve the PUBLIC NEED (the best Education, health & home for all our nation) not the PRIVATE GREED of big banks & big Corp that create the explosive inequality we have. There are different types of socialism, it exist 3 centuries before Marx’ Manifesto (1848) and our socialism will be creation of our NATION.
The State will be in the hands of workers & small & middle class capitalists. They will be elected democratically and the State will regulate the economy with SOEs (State Own Enterprises). We have experience with FDR during the previous recession. He canceled free money for the rich (now know as QEs & Bailouts), he taxed & expropriated the bad big corp. We will follow that experience & create a new type of SOCIALISM in our Nation. IF the current owners of our Nation oppose & use violence on us, we will respond with armed brigade= Revolution
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AMERICA'S RULING REGIME DOESN'T FEAR DISINFORMATION... IT FEARS TRUTH
Our ruling elites have engaged in an overt war on wrongthink...
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If GAN CONTROL: buying-selling underground will be a big business
CULTURAL SHIFT: NEARLY TWO-THIRDS OF AMERICANS OPPOSE NEW GUN CONTROL LAWS
Here's why the country's mood towards firearms has shifted.
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CALIFORNIA HIGH SCHOOL CAVES AFTER STUDENTS STAGE WALKOUT OVER MASK MANDATE
'Moving forward students will not be physically removed from the classroom or receive a discipline consequence to prevent further exclusionary learning loss.'
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis, D rest in limbo
Quick News:
The Ukraine crisis puts a gold name in our top ten for the first time since 2020.
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Russian officials claim that two explosions reported on the Russian side of the border with Ukraine were the result of incoming artillery shells.
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WATCH: PUTIN WARNS WEST WITH LAUNCH OF NUCLEAR-CAPABLE HYPERSONIC MISSILES
"The main objective of these exercises is to perfect the performance of our strategic offensive forces, with the aim of delivering a guaranteed strike against the enemy," Russian Gen. Valery Gerasimov told Putin in televised comments
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NATO expansion is what US-UK are creating inside Ukraine: arms & now mercenaries
GERMANY'S SPIEGEL ASKS "IS VLADIMIR PUTIN RIGHT?" OVER NATO EXPANSION
"Categorical assurances" were given...
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UKRAINE DEFENSE CHIEF SAYS "LOW PROBABILITY" OF MAJOR CONFLICT WITH RUSSIA, CONTRADICTING BIDEN
Yet US officials have continued seeking to convince & warn Kiev that a 'Russian invasion' is imminent...
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NOLAND: EXISTING GLOBAL ORDER IS "ONE SERIOUS CATALYST AWAY FROM A MEGAQUAKE"
This is it. Nearing the end of the road. There’s no fledging Bubble waiting to heroically save the day this time around..
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Environment infestation is the main issue here. People immune System is killed
CONOCOPHILLIPS SELLS EXCESS BAKKEN GAS TO BITCOIN MINER
By selling the extra gas to a third-party Bitcoin miner, ConocoPhillips also gets paid for the gas it would have otherwise just wasted and flared...
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THE WINTER OF OUR DISCONTENT: HUBRIS IS ASCENDENT
The decay caused by hyper-wealth is systemic..
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UKRAINIAN SEPARATIST LEADERS DECLARE 'FULL MILITARY MOBILIZATION'
President Zelesnky meanwhile traveled to the Munich Security Conference despite Biden officials urging him to stay in Kiev amid the crisis...
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...the general direction of who is a friend and who is an enemy of Russia is echoed by its people... yet, it is hardly a majority that shares these believes.
According to a survey by the Levada Center, a Russian non-governmental organization, the answer is that the general direction of who is a friend and who is an enemy of Russia is echoed by its people – yet, as Statista's Katharina Buchholz details below, it is hardly a majority that shares these believes.
See Chart:
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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russias-friends-and-foes
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ESCOBAR: THE TWISTS AND TURNS OF ERDOGAN'S FOREIGN POLICY
A deeply NATO-entrenched Turkey is heading east, but not in the way you think. Erdogan's 'Asia Anew' strategy is all about Turkic primacy, and will likely be at odds with Chinese and Russian-driven integration plans.
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US CITES UKRAINE CRISIS TO APPROVE $6 BILLION TANK DEAL FOR POLAND
No time like the present for a NATO 'eastern flank'
military hardware shopping spree...
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“As of this moment I’m convinced he’s made the decision,”... citing “significant intelligence capability.”
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IS THE CONFRONTATION OVER UKRAINE JOE BIDEN'S "WAG THE DOG" MOMENT?
The people now gunning for a showdown with Putin were gunning for a showdown with Saddam Hussein two decades ago... with the same promises of a happy outcome.
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PUTIN TO PERSONALLY OVERSEE MASSIVE NUCLEAR DRILL ON SATURDAY WITH TENSIONS ON KNIFE-EDGE
Without a doubt "escalatory" - said a senior US official...
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WILL XI JINPING'S "END OF DAYS" PLUNGE CHINA & THE WORLD INTO WAR?
Xi's problems, unfortunately, can become our problems. Virulent anti-Americanism suggests Xi is establishing a justification to strike America..
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SPUTNIK NEWS : https://sputniknews.com/
- Truss: UK to Create ‘Government Information Cell’ to Counter Moscow’s ‘Fake Narratives’
- Florida Inmate’s Death in Transit Sees 10 Prison Guards Placed on Leave, One Resign
- DC Authorities Mulling Reinstallation of Fences as US Capital Braces for 'Freedom Convoy' Protests
- Police Chopper Crashes in California's Newport Beach Area, Rescue Operation Underway
- Stoltenberg Warns of Alleged ‘Full-Scale Attack’ on Ukraine
- Switzerland Calls on Citizens to Leave Donbas, Urges Sides to De-Escalate
- Venezuelans Reject Claims That Diplomat Alex Saab Was 'DEA Informant' on International Day of Action
- Biden to Hold National Security Council Meeting on Ukraine Sunday
- Constitutional Referendum Unlikely to Change Anything in Belarus
- Biden Wasn't Going to Say He Was Sure About Russian ‘Ukraine Invasion’ Plan in Friday Speech
- How the US is Benefitting From Escalating Ukraine Crisis Into West-Russia Conflict
- Norway Refuses to Recognise Taliban Government in Afghanistan
- Ukraine Could Avoid Destabilising Region if It Was More Independent
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RT WORLD NEWS
-China blasts ‘smokescreen of war’
-NATO evacuates staff from Ukrainian capital
-Ukraine makes request to West
-Russia hits back at German chancellor
-Does NATO really pose a threat to Russia?
-Putin launches nuclear war drills
-Russians have hacked American military-industrial complex – US
-Chinese warship aimed ‘laser’ at Australian spy plane
-AOC accuses Tucker Carlson of ‘sexual harassment on air’
The politician made the accusation after the anchor suggested she is not a “woman of color”
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Feb 19 2022 PART 2 or update: SIT EC y POL SPANISH
REBELION
US-OTAN: Más militarización, menos paz para el mundo Pablo Ruiz
Econ : Banco UK solo tiene una soluc contra inflación: que paguen los trabajadores DG
Ecol: MEMORIA DEL AGUA Azahara Palomeque
Opin: SERES FRUSTRADOS, HIPERACTIVOS E IRREFLEXIVOS Carles Senso
ARG: EL ACUERDO CON EL FMI CONSOLIDA UNA ESTAFA Julio C. Gambina
Mund: UCRANIA, «EL PATO RENGO» Y BARBARROJA Guadi Calvo
Assange: EL DÍA 25 DE FEB JUICIO A LA REPRESENTACIÓN USA. Ramón Pedregal
Honduras: “VAMOS RECOBRANDO LA DIGNIDAD RESQUEBRAJADA” Giorgio Trucchi
Uruguay EL PAÍS DE LAS MARAVILLAS DE LACALLE POU Nicolás Centurión
Libro L: Karl Marx: todo sólido se desvanece en el aire del siglo XXI Camilo Valqui
ARG: DEBATE PARLAMENTARIO SOBRE EL ENDEUDAMIENTO Jorge Elbaum
ARG: DESDE LA HISTORIA HACIA EL RESCATE DE LA UTOPÍA Daniel Campione
Ecol: PROHIBICIÓN DEL ASBESTO. «POLVO DE DEMONIOS» 2022 Laurie Kazan
Perú: SOCIOLOGÍA E HISTORIA DE LA CORRUPCIÓN Raúl Allain
La supuesta corrupción del Presid Castillo va a la corte y esta tiene que esperar que termine su mandato para sentenciar. Es de ley . Ocurrio con Fujimori y Alan Garcia
ARG: Los tres escenarios del debate parlamentario sobre endeudamiento Jorge Elbaum
BRA: Potencia agrícola y debilidad industrial, es el futuro de Brasil Mario Osava
Chile: La jefa de prensa de Boric y la construcción presente de futuro Fdo Leiva
Nación Andaluza SUMISIÓN, OTAN Y GUERRA Iñaki Gil
Ecuad: DEBATE SOBRE EL ABORTO : SILENCIOS Y DIÁLOGOS Erika Arteaga
España: MOVILIZACIÓN ESTATAL PARA REGULARIZAR A PERSONAS MIGRANTES
España: LA CABEZA DE CASADO EN LA PLAZA DE COLÓN Gerardo Tecé
España: LEY DE IGUALDAD EFECTIVA DEL GÉNERO HUMANO Bittor Abarzuza
África: De rendimiento cero a cosechas abundantes en Malaui Esmie Komwa
PAL: EL EJEMPLO DE UNIDAD QUE DAN LOS PRISIONEROS Ramón Pedregal
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RT EN ESPAÑOL
Zelenski: "Para ayudar a Ucrania, no hay que seguir hablan d fechas de supuesta invasión https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/420609-zelenski-declara-ucrania-incilinara-ayuda
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Exsecret de Estado en Alemania reitera que OTAN incumplió promesas que hizo a Moscú https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/420622-exsecretario-estado-alemania-otan-incumplir-promesas
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La república Donetsk acusa a Kiev de atacar localidades con uso de armas pesadas https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/420644-ucrania-ataques-localidades-donetsk-armas-pesadas
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Serbia advierte: conflicto USA-RU provocaría "el colapso casi total del mundo" https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/420632-presidente-serbia-afirmar-conflicto-eeuu-rusia-colapso
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Cuba rechaza "la histeria d prensa" desatada por el US contra Rusia https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/420633-cuba-rechaza-histeria-propagandistica-eeuu-rusia
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Nadadora transgénero bate récords femeninos del US y desata polémica entre rivales https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/420628-nadadora-transgenero-vuelve-batir-records-eeuu
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Сómo el FBI planea luchar contra el aumento de precios en el US https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/420417-fbi-aumento-precios-eeuu-interrupcion-cadena-suministro
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"Secuestrado, torturado y enterrado vivo": Declaran culpables a dos personas de matar a un empresario con ayuda de una aplicación de citas https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/420614-culpables-secuestrar-torturar-empresario-trampa-aplicacion
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El Gobierno de Ucrania no tiene soberanía y US y UK usan este país "como un títere" https://actualidad.rt.com/video/420645-ucrania-soberania-eeuu-reino-unido-titere
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Cómo el conflicto en Ucrania devino en una agresión contra la población del Donbass https://actualidad.rt.com/video/420612-conflicto-ucrania-devino-agresion-poblacion
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CROSS TALK https://www.rt.com/shows/crosstalk/
- Ukraine threatens to renounce its non-nuclear status
- US mortgages balloon to record high
- China blasts ‘smokescreen of war’
- NATO evacuates staff from Ukrainian capital
- Russia hits back at German chancellor
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
- The Blatancy of American Presidents’ Lies By Eric Zuesse
- Polish-Ukrainian-UK Joint Statement Practically Trolls Itself Twice By Andrew Korybko,
- Vaccine shedding spreads disaster to unvaccinated pregnant women? By J R
- “COVID-19 The Great Reset” – “Delete” Humanity By Peter Koenig,
- Negotiations Have Got Russia Nowhere By Dr. Paul Craig Roberts,
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VOLTAIRE NET ORG https://www.voltairenet.org/en
RUSSIA EXPELS #2 US OFFICIAL IN MOSCOW
Russia has expelled the Deputy Chief of Mission of the US Embassy in Moscow, Bartle B. Gorman. This act comes in response to the expulsion of his Russian counterpart in Washington.
Bartle B. Gorman also in charge of one of the State Department’s intelligence services, Bureau of Deplomatic Security.
His expulsion is also a way for the Russian authorities to highlight the role played by Secretary Antony Blinken and his deputy Victoria Nuland in the Ukrainian crisis in circumventing even the CIA.
SOURCE: https://www.voltairenet.org/article215758.html
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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’ team
- A Call for Peace: Russian & U.S. Women Push for Diplomacy, Not Military Action, to Resolve Crisis
- Wave of Bomb Threats Terrorizing Historically Black Colleges Continues During Black History Month
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