NOV
8 17 SIT EC y POL
ND denuncia
debacle d Globaliz neoliberal y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Econ
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
Global context: 1
Something
snapped in Japan today.
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2-
"So off the US military charges into Africa, with little
understanding of the region and even less strategic planning. It’s Vietnam-style ‘mission creep’
all over again..."
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3-
An inconvenient challenge has
appeared on Draghi's radar. What if Italian yields start blowing out before the
election and he has
less ammunition to buy BTPs than the market expected...
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Of course, the
wave of retail failures is a direct
hit to an industry that is the largest employer of young Americans and those at
the low end of the income spectrum with retail employment
drastically lagging overall private job growth.
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More on US’ Economic reality… here it goes:
The Dollar Index drifted lower
again, hovering at pre-payrolls levels
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see graphic image at the source below
The
Treasury yield curve continues to flatten. 5s30s is now down 10 days in a row - the longest flattening streak since March
2011 and Dec 2005 - if it goes 11 days that will be an all-time record.
And even banks are now starting to
pay attention...
see graphic image at the source below
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As we've noted multiple times over
the past several weeks, as of the halfway
point of the current NFL season, television ratings are
down an average 5% compared to the same point last year, and nearly 20% from
2015.
Lewis, an influential thinker on
sports leagues and their finances, may be on to something. On the other hand, he added that practically
speaking, he’s not sure how a person
would go about shorting the NFL just yet.
...but, we have an idea...how
about all of the media companies that have sold billions of dollars worth of
NFL advertisements and are about to get crushed by 'make goods' when they don't
deliver the eyeballs they promised ad agencies?
Yes, we're looking at your ESPN...perhaps the next 'Big Short' has already begun?
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No 52-week
high in the Nasdaq 100 has ever been
accompanied by as few advancing stocks as today’s.
..
If that seems unusually skewed to
decliners considering the NDX hit a 52-week high, you are on to something. As a
matter of fact, at 28.5% of all issues, today saw the
fewest advancing issues ever on a day when the NDX closed at a 52-week high.
So, is this dwindling participation a serious warning sign for
the rally? Or is today a random
outlier, irrelevant to the bigger picture?
* * *
If you’re
interested in the “all-access” version of our charts and research, please check
out our new site, The Lyons Share.
…
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Two words: "circular reflexivity."
…
These two dynamics are shown in the charts below: while short-rate expectations continue to diverge between the
US and Europe (left), the term premia in the US and the Euro area bond markets
have tracked each other increasingly closely, especially since 2014 (right).
See chart in the source below
The chart below from Goldman
shows a growing undershooting of
the aggregate term premium on 10-year bonds in the major economies from where historical relationships with
macro factors would have it. "This departure from historical norms
coincides with the introduction of negative rates and sizeable purchases of
long bonds by the ECB and the BoJ." In other words, the nearly 1% delta can be attributed to the actions of
one or more central banks.
Needless to say, when (rising) price
becomes the only variable behind purchasing decisions, any reversals could have
dire consequences. And, just to make sure the warning is heard, Goldman
cautions that "in the current
market environment, these yield shocks may propagate more quickly across the
advanced economies than was the case during the ‘taper tantrum’ episode in
2015." This means that once the selling in
the long-end begins, the consequence could be far more severe than the sharp
selloff observed in one or more previous "taper tantrum" episodes.
The second
implication is especially relevant for currency
traders, because FX has become more correlated with relative term
premia: As noted by ECB Executive Board member Coeure in a speech last Friday, in recent months the Euro-US Dollar FX cross has moved more
closely with the differential in the Europe-US term premium than the
differential in interest rate expectations.
See chart in the source below
But it is the third,
and most important implication, that is of particular note as it goes to the
very core of the "circular reflexive" conundrum that has been
plaguing the Fed, which according to Janet Yellen has been unable
to explain the "mystery" of low inflation 10 years into this
so-called recovery. The reality, is that there is
nothing mysterious about suppressed inflation: in fact, it is the all Fed's own
doing, and as a result of trillions in liquidity, "the information content in long bonds (and inflation) is low" in
Goldman's words. The bank explains:
By amplifying the
compression in the term premium on nominal rates, QE may have also
created distortions in the breakeven inflation market. To be
sure, inflation expectations derived from both surveys (consumers,
professional forecasters) and market measures (forwards and options) are
low, reflecting a protracted period of low realized inflation prints in
spite of expansionary monetary policy. The uncertainty around inflation
forecasts has also declined, all arguing for a lower inflation ‘premium’.
[[ Concluding remarks ]]
The punchline can be
taken right out of any Soros book on market reflexivity between cause and
effect, to wit:
"this circularity – QE contributes to depress longer-dated inflation
forwards, which in turn encourages central banks to deliver more QE – has
lowered the information content that can usually be found in long-dated fixed
income instruments."
The perverse
circularity is the daily bizarro world market participants have become all too
familiar with, and boils down to the following: the more QE the Fed does, the lower inflation
breakevens slide, the lower yields drop, the more QE the Fed believes it has to
do, and so on in a self-reinforcing feedback loop, one which has now continued for
9 years because the "smartest people academics in the room"
have been unable to figure out just how they broke the market.
And the final
implication: since
bond yields are artificially low - whether due to chasing term premium, or
because of the Fed's perverse circularity - it means that the only
justification for 20x P/E multiples, i.e., low rates (as per the Fed model) can
be thrown out of the window. Of course, if that
happens, both the bond and stock markets would crash... which is
also why nobody at the Fed will ever be willing to openly admit what Goldman
just said.
Read
complete art at: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-08/there-no-information-content-goldman-explains-how-fed-broke-market
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POLITICS
La seudo
democ y sist duopolico es obsoleto por
fraudulento y corrupto. Urge cambiarlo
Thousands
of Americans gathered in cities across America on Wednesday night to "Scream
helplessly at the Sky on the Anniversary of the Election" to mark one year
since President Trump's victory.
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"For decades, the petrodollar system has allowed the US government
and many Americans to live way beyond their means... One day soon, Americans may wake up to a new reality."
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“Although no one at the time would have believed it, the 12 months since Election Day have been
among the least volatile ever for equity markets; not to mention the
solid 21% gain the S&P 500 Index racked up along the way that has the bulls
smiling.”
[[ Yesterday elections corroborated his victory .. Reps lose
only 2 states ]
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WORLD ISSUES and M-East
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K- compet. D rest in limbo
As the moment of truth approaches on trade, the rhetoric on
the Chinese side is that progress will be made. However, this will probably be a hollow victory for Trump.
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DEMOCRACY NOW
US politics crisis: Trump captured by Deep state to
reproduce old cronyism without alter-plan
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Global Econ-Pol crisis leads to more business-wars: profiteers US-NATO under screen
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Network
of Illicit Arms Shipmts to Syrian Terrorists: US, Israel n Saudis Armed Terror
Proxies JONeill
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis, their internal conflicts n
chances of WW3
House Leadership is lying to American people.
By Connor Freeman
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U.S. Spent $5.6 Trillion Killing People in
Middle East and Asia: Study By
David Matthews
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The Democratic Money Behind Russia-gate By Joe Lauria
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Within the Belly of
the US’s Star-spangled Leviathan By
Phil Rockstroh
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COUNTER PUNCH
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Jan Oberg Heading
Toward Nuclear War: Why?
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
The nasty business of US-NATO-Global-wars uncovered ..
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Before his appearance was scrapped at the last minute
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RT SHOWS
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Latino America fight to break with collapsing Empire: leftist view on alternatives
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T-origl: “J C Mariátegui y Norka Rouskaya. Centenario de un escándalo”
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VIDEO: Ovejas aprenden a reconocer la
cara de Obama y otra celebridad sabian que esta última estaba vacía y no la elegían . Moraleja:
La democ no siempre alimenta ovejas. Si
es así, abstente.
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PRESS
TV
Global situation described by Iranian observers.. US’allies
nuclear blackmail continues
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Illiterate Presid confess his ignorance on basic World’
politics
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'Trump-Xi talks will address trade
imbalances' vs. US’ nuclear
blackmail
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