Nueva Democracia: JAN 4 2022 Part 1-2 SIT ECON y POL

JAN 4 2022 Part 1-2 SIT ECON y POL

ND denounce-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco

ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS

Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

US DOMESTIC POLITICS

Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption.

Quick News:

BANNED CONTENT: ROBERT KENNEDY’S BOOK, THE REAL ANTHONY FAUCI, DESTROYS FAUCI, COVID VACCINES, AND US VACCINE INDUSTRY

BY Knave Dave

Something happened during the writing of this article that has never happened to me before...

====

US started WW3:

US LAUNCHES PREEMPTIVE STRIKE ON "ROCKET SITES" NEAR OCCUPIED SYRIAN OIL FIELDS

Region is home to Syria's largest oil facility of al-Omar field, as well as Conoco gas field...

====

DEMOCRATS FACE BRUTAL RECKONING WITH HISPANIC VOTERS

"Biden’s approval ratings are awful across the board, but his support has eroded more among Hispanic voters than with any other racial group..."

====

CDC CHANGES BOOSTER GUIDELINES (AGAIN) AS US REPORTS RECORD CASES

...rampant alarmism continues....

====

RON PAUL: TAKING BACK OUR LIBERTY IN 2022

We must continue to tell the truth.

The truth is winning and the liars are losing

====

BIDEN DISAPPROVAL HITS ALL-TIME HIGH AS AGENDA FACES MAJOR HEADWINDS: CNBC

WITH MIDTERMS LOOMING...

====

CDC CHANGES BOOSTER GUIDELINES (AGAIN) AS US REPORTS RECORD CASES

...rampant alarmism continues....

====

RAY DALIO ON THE CHANGING WORLD ORDER: "ENTIRELY POSSIBLE NEITHER SIDE WILL ACCEPT LOSING THE 2024 ELECTION"

The world order is changing in important ways that have happened many times before in history, though not in our lifetimes...

MY CONCLUSIONS UP-FRONT

The world order is changing in important ways that have happened many times before in history, though not in our lifetimes

Read: The changing World Order: the new Paradigm

And: Principles for dealing with changing world order

THE FOLLOWING ARE THE THREE BIGGEST ISSUES THAT I WANT TO FOCUS ON

1) Big Debt and Debt Monetizations, Particularly in the World’s Leading Reserve Currency

2) Internal Conflicts over Wealth and Values Gaps

3) External Conflicts, Most Importantly the Rise of a Great Power (China) to Challenge the Existing Great Power (the US)

1) BIG DEBT AND DEBT MONETIZATIONS

The three major reserve currency empires—the United States, Europe, and to a lesser extent Japan—are in poor financial shape. The top chart shows for the US how debt levels (black line) are high today and were high in the 1929-33 and 2008 periods. In both cases, interest rates hit 0% (blue line), and the printing of money and buying of financial assets began in a big way (red line). More recently, the COVID-triggered downturn and the political move to the left has led to a massive increase in debt creation and debt monetization in the US (and other countries).

See Charts:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/1641229443387.png?itok=iZMefLN4

THIS PRINTING OF MONEY AND BUYING OF DEBT ASSETS HAS DRIVEN INTEREST RATES SO LOW THAT CASH AND BONDS ARE STUPID TO OWN

You aren’t getting an interest rate—why would you keep your money there? You are guaranteed to get lousy rates, particularly on cash. The charts below show that you are basically going to get the worst interest rates ever in both inflation-adjusted and nominal terms.

See Charts:

Real Bond Yield vs Nominal Bond Yield & Nominal Cash rate

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/1641230267759.png?itok=JKlCaABu

Think about the deal. The charts below show the number of years it takes for the money one invests in bonds and cash to be returned before one starts making a profit. The one on the top left is in dollars and the one on the top right is in inflation-adjusted dollars. This creates more incentive to sell and borrow this debt than to buy more. At the same time, a lot more debt will be produced and will have to be sold. There won’t be enough demand to buy it, especially since global investors are already overweight in it. The way this is dealt with is that the Fed prints a lot more money and buys a lot of debt.

See Charts:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/1641230328538.png?itok=X8WpTpmK

Think about the deal. The charts below show the number of years it takes for the money one invests in bonds and cash to be returned before one starts making a profit. The one on the top left is in dollars and the one on the top right is in inflation-adjusted dollars. As shown, the amounts of time are between 50 years and never. This creates more incentive to sell and borrow this debt than to buy more. At the same time, a lot more debt will be produced and will have to be sold. There won’t be enough demand to buy it, especially since global investors are already overweight in it. The way this is dealt with is that the Fed prints a lot more money and buys a lot of debt.

See Charts:

In number of dollards vs In Inflation-adjusted dollards

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/1641230328538.png?itok=X8WpTpmK

REMEMBER THAT ONE PERSON’S DEBTS ARE ANOTHER PERSON’S ASSETS, AND IMAGINE WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF THE ASSET HOLDERS SOLD BECAUSE THE DEBT ASSETS WERE UNATTRACTIVE (WHICH THEY ARE)

That would lead to either a big increase in interest rates or a huge increase in the printing of money to buy the debt to artificially hold interest rates down. The chart below shows the amount of debt assets relative to GDP, which means that a lot can be sold if the holders lose their taste for it.

See Chart:

US Debt and Credit liabilities as % of GDP

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/1641230582171.png?itok=ZKI2vknl

THE AMOUNT OF FINANCIAL ASSETS RELATIVE TO REAL ASSETS IS DANGEROUSLY HIGH, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A “BANK RUN”-TYPE MOVE FROM FINANCIAL ASSETS TO REAL ASSETS

I am not saying this will happen, but I am saying that there is a much higher probability of this happening than is reflected in market pricing. Think about it. There is only one purpose of investment assets, and that is to sell them to get cash to buy the real goods and services that one wants.

Making financial asset prices go up by creating a lot of money and debt makes people financially richer, but it doesn’t make them actually richer. It also leads to periods of bad real returns. This is shown in the following charts [3]. The top chart shows financial asset values as a percentage of all assets, the second chart shows financial net worth relative to GDP, and the third chart shows rolling returns of the 60/40 stock/bond portfolio since 1910.

See Charts:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/1641230765019.png?itok=aHpGAhpZ

PERIODS LIKE THESE PRODUCE TERRIBLE RETURNS FOR HOLDING CASH

In my opinion, the four periods circled in the chart below are the analogous periods to today, each of which produced analogous paradigms to what we’re experiencing.

See Chart:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/1641231092760.png?itok=93B_EaG3

PERIODS LIKE THESE EVENTUALLY PRODUCE BAD REAL RETURNS FOR STOCKS AND BONDS

See Charts:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/1641231359675.png?itok=uWHqLfaO

2) INTERNAL CONFLICTS OVER WEALTH AND VALUES GAPS

In the US (and a number of other countries), wealth and income gaps are the largest since the 1930s.

See Charts:

US WEALCH Share vs US INCOME Charges

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/1641306194396.png?itok=3AbzkfpR

AND THE POLITICAL GAPS ARE THE GREATEST EVER

There is great internal conflict going on in the United States now, which makes it a risky place. For example, it is entirely possible that neither side will accept losing the 2024 election. Such political clashes hurt productivity and create an inhospitable environment, which hurts capital flows.

See Chart:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/1641231571754.png?itok=k9KuQxFx

GOVERNMENT SPENDING WILL INCREASE A LOT. TAX RATES WILL RISE A LOT, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO COVER THE SPENDING. SO WEALTH WILL BE REDISTRIBUTED THROUGH BOTH TAXES AND DEBT MONETIZATIONS.

See Chart:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/1641231708754.png?itok=p2CgmXEn

3) EXTERNAL CONFLICTS DUE TO THE RISES AND DECLINES OF GREAT POWERS

The chart below shows indices of the strengths and weaknesses of the leading world powers since 1500. Note the Dutch, British, American, and Chinese cycles. The Dutch guilder was the world’s reserve currency when the Dutch Empire was on top, the British pound was the world’s reserve currency when the British Empire was on top, and the US dollar is the dominant reserve currency now that the US is on top. Note how things are changing. These cycles are transpiring for archetypical reasons.

See Charts:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/1641231868292.png?itok=0fFnH6-I

This chart is a simplified version of what you just saw for these four empires. The gray shaded areas are the periods of great internal and external conflicts and restructurings via depression, revolution, and war (typically lasting 10-25 years). They are followed by more extended periods of peace and prosperity in which order is brought about by the existence of a dominant power that no country wants to fight because it’s too strong, leading people to work harmoniously together.

See Chart:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/1641231991167.png?itok=mdr9tFik

THE ARCHETYPICAL BIG CYCLE

I will begin taking you through the typical cycle at the point that the new order is created. After revolutions and wars a new order—i.e., a new system run by new leaders—is created. For example, the last world order to be created came after WWII, in 1945. At that point in the cycle there is a dominant power, and nobody wants to fight the dominant power, so this part of the cycle is typically peaceful and, if managed well, prosperous. It is economically rewarding, which leads people to borrow and bet on it continuing, leading to over-indebtedness. Because economic opportunities are naturally distributed unevenly, large wealth gaps develop.

Also, with time, competitors emerge and grow in power. Over-indebtedness and declining competitiveness eventually lead to financial problems at the same time as there are large wealth and political gaps. This produces more internal conflict and people demanding more money, which leads governments to create more debt and print a lot more money, which weakens the currency and raises inflation. As the dominant power weakens and other powers get strong enough to challenge it, there are greater internal and external conflicts that lead to revolutionary changes in who has what wealth and power. That ends the old order and leads to the next new order. That is now happening.

See Chart:

The typical Big Cycle Behind Empire rises & declines

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/1641232099294.png?itok=WnIK2IjN

As explained in my conclusions up-front, I believe that important wealth and power shifts are underway, creating a new paradigm in which 1) it is undesirable to hold dollar-, euro-, and yen-denominated credit assets, especially short-term debt assets, because they will have significantly negative real returns, and 2) it is desirable to hold a well-diversified portfolio of currencies, countries, and asset classes.

What I’ve given you above is an inadequately brief overview of that which is covered comprehensively in my book Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order. By If you are interested in this subject, I urge you to read it.

In the coming days, I’ll be sharing another update on what I’ll be watching for in 2022.

….

SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/dalio-changing-world-order-entirely-possible-neither-side-will-accept-losing-2024

----

THE DEATH OF TRUTH

When a society gets to a point where you aren’t even allowed to ask questions, that is a very clear sign that you are living under a very oppressive authoritarian regime...

====

US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)

Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis, D rest in limbo

WORLD POWERS INCLUDING RUSSIA & CHINA PLEDGE "NUCLEAR WAR MUST NEVER BE FOUGHT"

Rare UN Security Council joint statement vows to avoid nuclear arms race

====

GOVERNMENTS ADMIT USING 'MASS FORMATION PSYCHOSIS' AS TOOL OF POPULATION CONTROL

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

Leaked details of UK government’s early pandemic response back up Dr. Malone’s assertions...

Dr. Robert Malone’s assertions about “mass formation psychosis” in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic are underscored by the fact that authorities in the UK admitted to using “totalitarian” methods of “mind control” to instill fear in the population.

In Canada, the military also admitted launching a psychological operations campaign against their own people in order to manipulate them into compliance with COVID-19 restrictions and mandates.

Laura Dodsworth

“Use of fear to control behaviour in Covid pandemic was ‘totalitarian’, admit scientists” ⁦From ‘A State of Fear: how the UK government weaponised fear during the Covid-19 pandemic’

The London Telegraph reported reported the comments made by Members of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Behaviour (SPI-B): the government should drastically increase “the perceived level of personal threat” that the virus poses because “a substantial number of people still do not feel sufficiently personally threatened”.

An unnamed scientist adds that “The way we have used fear is dystopian.”

“Canadian military leaders saw the pandemic as a unique opportunity to test out propaganda techniques on an unsuspecting public,” reported the Ottawa Citizen.

….

Source: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/governments-admit-using-mass-formation-psychosis-tool-population-control

----

WORLD POWERS INCLUDING RUSSIA & CHINA PLEDGE "NUCLEAR WAR MUST NEVER BE FOUGHT"

Rare UN Security Council joint statement vows to avoid nuclear arms race

====

ISRAEL VOWS TO INFORM US ON MAJOR DEALS WITH CHINA

Israel asked US about "alternatives" to Chinese companies in infrastructure sector, a move that yielded no results so far: Haaretz

====

SPUTNIK NEWS : https://sputniknews.com/

- Israel-UAE Trade Expected to Hit $2 Billion in 2022, But Might the Honeymoon Be Disrupted?

- Emma Watson Incurs Israeli Ire After Expressing Solidarity With 'Free Palestine' Movt