Nueva Democracia: JAN 13-10 2022 Part 1-2 SIT ECON y POL

With a non-stop barrage of hawkish FedSpeak today, following record high PPI, no one should be surprised that stonks shit the bed as the realization dawns that any Powell Put is struck considerably lower than this and the game of chicken continues. Nasdaq was clubbed like a baby seal today, down over 2.5% (from up almost 0.5% after PPI). The S&P fell 2%, Small Caps -1% and even The Dow was dumped into the close...

See Chart:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-01-13_13-00-03.jpg?itok=SQXN83jK

This is the biggest Nasdaq drawdown since May 2021...

See Chart:

Nasdaq Composite

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bitcoin-breakevens-big-tech-breakdown-inflation-batters-bond-bears

Big-Tech tumbled today and so did bond-yields. The most risky, longest-duration stocks suffered most...

See Chart:

Unprofitable Tech Stocks

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-01-13_12-53-16.jpg?itok=kuMU48gP

Nasdaq's crusade lower continued after a 3-day respite ramp test to its 100DMA and fail and the S&P broke back below its 50DMA...

See Chart:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-01-13_12-22-32.jpg?itok=HSgaJtdf

Treasury yields were all lower today with the belly of the curve outperforming (5Y -5bps, 2Y and 30Y -3bps). Notably, only 2Y yields are higher on the week, with 30Y -7bps...

See Chart:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-01-13_12-28-46.jpg?itok=p7Vcd_SV

The yield curve has flattened notably, now flatter on the year...flashing some red 'policy error' flags...

See Chart:

UST 2s 30s Yield Spread

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bitcoin-breakevens-big-tech-breakdown-inflation-batters-bond-bears

And Breakevens slipped to 3-week lows...

See Chart:

10Y Breakevens

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bitcoin-breakevens-big-tech-breakdown-inflation-batters-bond-bears

The dollar continued to slip further below its 100DMA, its lowest since early November...

See Chart:

Bloomberg Dollar Index

100 DMA

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-01-13_12-38-17.jpg?itok=b9J2gyBf

Cryptos took another beating today with bitcoin sliding back from $44k...

See Chart:

Bitcoin

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bitcoin-breakevens-big-tech-breakdown-inflation-batters-bond-bears

Finally, in case you really thought you would call The Fed's bluff, QE shrinks by $20BN to $40BN in period Jan. 18-Feb 10...

See Chart:

Purchase Period Details

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/image%20-%202022-01-13T121501.472.png?itok=Ozb-T20V

It will then shrink another $20BN and end by mid-March when the Fed will hike...

See Chart:

Market-Implied # of Rate-hikes Price-in

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bitcoin-breakevens-big-tech-breakdown-inflation-batters-bond-bears

And if we believe the Taylor Rule, The Fed is 1000bps to easy right now...

See Chart:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-01-13_12-19-02.jpg?itok=7XCaiMvp

But, if STIRs are right, it may stop hiking rates by year-end... but QT will continue?

====

Good News:

RENTS HAVE FINALLY PEAKED AS RENTAL MARKET ENTERS "WIDESPREAD COOLDOWN"

by Tyler Durden

61 of the nation’s 100 largest cities saw rents fall in December month, "indicating a widespread rental market cooldown."

Here we have some good news, because while the rent, shelter and OER prints reported by the CPI will still rise for the next 5 or 6 months, the actual rental market has now finally peaked.

According to the latest Apartment list data, the consultancy's national index fell by 0.2% during the month of December, marking the only time in 2021 when rents declined month-over-month. And while a slight dip in rents at this time of year is typical of seasonality in the market, it’s especially notable after a year of record-setting growth, especially when considering that over the course of calendar year 2021, the national median rent increased by a staggering 17.8%. To put that in context, annual rent growth averaged just 2.3% in the pre-pandemic years from 2017-2019.

As the chart below shows, December is also the fifth straight month in which monthly rent growth slowed after peaking at 2.7 percent in July. The current slowdown is capping a year that has been characterized by unprecedented price increases. For seven months from March through September, month-over-month rent growth exceeded the pre-pandemic record going back to 2017. In December,

See Chart

Monthly Change in National Rent Index (2018-present)

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/monthly%20change%20rent%20index.jpg?itok=jdjrUknr

See more charts at:

SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/finally-some-good-news-rents-have-finally-peaked-rental-market-enters-widespread-cooldown

----

Human Resources:

NATIONWIDE SURGE IN DEATHS AMONG PEOPLE AGED 18-49: A STATE BY STATE OVERVIEW

Highest state sees 65 percent increase in prime-age mortality, only 36 percent attributed to COVID-19

====

US DOMESTIC POLITICS

Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption.

Quick News:

TRUMP’S VACCINE SUPPORT MAY COST HIM VICTORY IN 2024

BY Knave Dave

Many BIG, very influential Trump supporters have turned staunchly against him.

….

Trump support to WW3 on RU-CH + his pro-war mongerism abroad (manufacturing weapons: missiles & Nukes) will bring even worse effects to his candidacy in 2024.

Trump is condemn to be defeated & best option is Kamala Harris, she will be the new Merkel in work politics, able to keep reconciliation between both parties (Dems & Reps). IF she fails the political chaos will destroy the FED Union: State & regional separatism will emerge. Obama is not the person to restore reconciliation. Obama & Hillary stole the gold from Lybia, after brutally killing the President (reports abound). Besides, Obama was the one create the terrorist org called ISIS, a new type of muslim yijadism to destroy Syria & Iran & get their oil in alliance with Israel & UK. Obama was also involved in the killing of Bengazy members of US Embassy who demanded US support since other yihadist groups were attacking them.

IF REPS & DEMs don’t demolish themselves in the coming pre-elections, it will be in the prelims of 2024 election. Then the only solution for America will be the alliance of socialists, greens & other progressive political parties in US. It is expected women will create their own radical party. All of them UNITED in REV will create a NEW AMERICA.

I guess Ray Dalio will talk on this point in his new promised book. Meanwhile read:

RAY DALIO ON THE CHANGING WORLD ORDER: "ENTIRELY POSSIBLE NEITHER SIDE WILL ACCEPT LOSING THE 2024 ELECTION"

The world order is changing in important ways that have happened many times before in history, though not in our lifetimes...

SOURCE: http://nd-hugoadan.blogspot.com/2022/01/jan-4-2022-part-1-2-sit-econ-y-pol.html

----

RON PAUL: "WE NEED A REVOLUTION"

The rising support for violence against government is rooted in the growing (and justified) BELIEF THAT THE PEOPLE’S LIBERTIES ARE BEING TAKEN BY A RULING CLASS THAT IS INDIFFERENT AT BEST, and hostile at worst, to their values and concerns.

====

SUPREME COURT BLOCKS BIDEN'S OSHA VAXX MANDATE

...but allows vaccine mandate for most health care workers

====

TEXAS, FLORIDA RESIDENTS CAN PAT THEMSELVES ON THE BACK

Bringing sanity to the Omicron chaos...

====

US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)

Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis, D rest in limbo

Quick News:

FIVE REASONS RUSSIA WILL INVADE UKRAINE

BY American Consequences

Will Russian President Vladimir Putin again invade his neighbor and former fellow Soviet state?

====

CENTRAL BANKS ARE TRAPPED AS THEY CAN'T FIGHT SUPPLY-DRIVEN INFLATION

Given inflation dynamics are supply-driven, “central banks should not lean too aggressively against inflation."

====

CHINA SENDS A MESSAGE WITH WEAKEST YUAN FIXING RELATIVE TO EXPECTATIONS IN OVER A MONTH

by Tyler Durden

“Today’s fixing was weaker than expected, and an indication that the authorities do not want the yuan to strengthen past the 6.35 level yet.”

As we discussed earlier this week, a new conundrum had emerged in the market: instead of rising on good news, and a Fed clearly determined to hike rates, the dollar has been sliding (read our explanation here). But for China, which is now in easing mode, and is increasingly concerned what rate differential will do to the Chinese economy once the Fed begins tightening, the drop in the dollar appears to not be nearly enough and on Thursday, the Chinese central bank set the yuan's reference rate at the weakest relative to expectations in a month. The PBOC set the daily reference rate at yuan fixing at 6.3542 per dollar, which as shown below was 60 pips weaker-than the average estimate of 6.3482, the biggest discount relative to expectations in over a month.

The spread between the daily yuan fix and expectations is charted below, and it shows that with a handful of exceptions, the yuan has been fixed well below expectations for much of the past 4 months.

See Chart:

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/yuan%20fixing.jpg?itok=zGj7mfWy

“Today’s fixing was weaker than expected, and an indication that the authorities do not want the yuan to strengthen past the 6.35 level yet,” said Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at ANZ in Singapore. “However, with China still running large trade surpluses, portfolio inflows strong and the USD now turning lower, it may be difficult for the authorities to prevent the yuan from strengthening anyway.”

Exporters will be more actively converting foreign currency holdings into yuan to pay bonuses and other festival-related spending ahead of Lunar New Year, lending further support to the yuan.

“We have seen large fixing deviations before, and they tend to be a one-off. Tomorrow’s fixing therefore will be closely watched.”

While it is still early to conclude that Beijing is freaking out about a strong yuan, it appears that we start 2022 with an even bigger conundrum. Not only is the dollar losing altitude as the US prepares to hike as much as four times this year, the appreciation pressures behind the yuan remain intense even as China is preparing to ease to stabilize its flailing property developers. Somehow we doubt that this will be the biggest market paradox of what is sure to be a very "interesting" year.

….

SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-sends-message-weakest-yuan-fixing-relative-expectations-over-month

----

GLOBAL ECONOMY HEADING FOR "MOTHER OF ALL" SUPPLY CHAIN SHOCKS AS CHINA LOCKS DOWN PORTS

"Temporary, one would hope, but hugely disruptive all the same"

….

Notice: The World's Largest Asset Manager is Wei Li , an Asian woman

Las mujeres están entrando a la historia mundial con fuerza. KH is coming in US

====

US EMBASSY IN BAGHDAD "ATTACKED BY TERRORIST" IN ROCKET BARRAGE

"We have long said that these sorts of reprehensible attacks are an assault not just on diplomatic facilities, but on the sovereignty of Iraq itself."

====

SPUTNIK NEWS : https://sputniknews.com/

- Former Chief of Staff to Florida State Senator Killed in Road Rage Incident

- Biden Deploys US Military Medical Teams to Six States With Overwhelmed Hospitals

- East Germany's Stasi Spied on Olaf Scholz in 1980s, Shared Intel With USSR

- California Governor Rejects Parole for Man Who Assassinated Robert F. Kennedy

- US Senate Rejects Bill to Sanction Nord Stream 2 Pipeline Within 15 Days

- US Says Oil From Strategic Reserve Sale Could Hit Market as Early as January

- US Arrests Leader of Oath Keepers Group in January 6 Investigation

- Biden 'Disappointed' US Supreme Court Blocked OSHA Vaccine Mandate

- Pentagon Says ‘Aware’ of Iranian Leader’s Video Depicting Trump Assassination

- North Korea Warns US After New Sanctions Follow Ballistic Missile Launches