JAN 20-2022 Part 1-2 SIT ECON y POL
ND denounce- debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
Quick News
OIL IS NOW "OUT OF OPEC'S HANDS" AND IS "GOING HIGHER"
Harris Kupperman says: "It’s increasingly out of their hands at this point. Oil is going higher."
This is Part 1 of an interview with Harris Kupperman, founder of Praetorian Capital, a hedge fund focused on using macro trends to guide stock selection. Mr. Kupperman is also the chief adventurer at Adventures in Capitalism, a website that details his investments and travels.
Part 2 of this interview will be found here.
As oil goes higher, it will drive production costs...(READ FULL INTERVIEW HERE)
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LACY HUNT: NEGATIVE REAL RATES ARE A STRONG RECESSION WARNING
Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,
...debt overhang and demographics make the matter worse.
In his 4th Quarter Review and Outlook, Lacy provides some interesting charts on negative real rates and recessions
See CHART:
Real Yield: 1870-2021
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-01-20_09-30-22.jpg?itok=MHAUYJzx
Lacy’view. His analysis shows that negative real yields are associated with recessions.
Debt overhang and demographics make the matter worse.
See Chart:
Negative Real Treasury Yields’: Recession & indebtedness
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-01-20_09-31-51.jpg?itok=qp_W-2oY
History
Since 1870, the starting point of reliable data, only 24 full yearly averages were negative, or just 16% of the 152 readings over this time span.
Real long maturity yields were negative in 1934, which while not a recession year, happened during the horrific conditions of the Great Depression (1929-1939). In only one case, 1979, does the negative real yield happen during an economic expansion when the economy is not in a highly depressed state.
DEBT OVERHANGS AND REAL INTEREST RATES
The level of indebtedness of the economy is another of the critical moving parts in assessing future economic growth. Based on empirical evidence, theory and peer reviewed scholarly research, the massive secular increase in debt levels relative to economic activity has undermined economic growth, which has in turn, served to force real long-term Treasury yields lower. This pattern has been evident in both the United States and the more heavily indebted Japanese and European economies.
Real 10-Year Government Bond Yields
See Chart:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-01-20_09-31-31.jpg?itok=UKzaaVoK
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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/lacy-hunt-negative-real-rates-are-strong-recession-warning
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JPMORGAN SPOTS A CRACK IN THE MARKET ONE DAY AHEAD OF $3 TRILLION OPEX
by Tyler Durden
But just as retail capitulates and refuses to BTFD for the first time in over a month, the selling is about to exhaust itself and stocks are set to rip higher after tomorrow's massive option expiration.
Earlier today we quoted a JPMorgan trader who was wondering if after yesterday's mid-day swoon, the result of systematic, vol-targeting and CTA strategies unleashing a barrage of sell orders, if today's action would be similar, to wit: "Let’s see if we can hold pre-market gains throughout the session as yesterday afternoon felt like systematic selling. If 1.90% was a buy-level in bonds, then we may have a relief rally being initiated led by Tech."
A few hours later we found out the answer, and it was a resounding no, because just around the time European market closed, the selling resumed, and boy was it glorious
See Chart:
Emini S&P Futs
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/ES%202022-01-20_20-25-34.jpg?itok=pH4pHRW0
As the bank concludes, among the reasons for the market scare is that with the Fed meeting next week, what should be a non-event now has investors questioning (i) will the Fed end QE next week; (ii) is next week a live meeting or does liftoff begin in March; and, (iii)is the first rate hike 25bps, 50bps, or more. Incidentally, JPM's answer to all is no (and 25bps).
But before we get there, and get a powerful relief rally as Powell reaffirms that for all of Biden's hollow rhetoric, the Fed will not cause a market crash just to tame inflation (the same inflation the Fed though was transitory as recently as October) and save Biden's approval rating...
See Chart:
Inflation: and Economic & political Problem
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpm-spots-crack-market-one-day-ahead-3-trillion-opex
In other words, stock liquidation played into the large negative gamma position which accelerated selling into the close, SpotGamma writes, adding that so long as the SPX trades below its Volatility Trigger - around 4,630 - SpotGamma sees heightened volatility, and adds that trades with respect to Friday's monthly OPEX will only compound the instability.
In short, tomorrow could unleash sheer chaos in early trading, but once trillions in notional expire, taking away with them a substantial chunk of the negative gamma that dealers are currently trapped under, it is quite likely that following an initial burst lower, the market will finally bottom out for the near-term.
Before we dig a little deeper into what to expect tomorrow, here is some context for today's waterfall rout, courtesy of SpotGamma:
Stocks continued to sell, Thursday, pressured by increased jobless claims, the prospects of more aggressive tightening of monetary policy, and poor responses to earnings.
Growth and rate-sensitive names like Amazon and Peloton (which happened to halt production due to slowing demand), as well as Netflix (which fell after-hours on slower subscriber growth), are just some of the names leading to the downside. There were rumors of forced liquidations, which seemed to sync with the afternoons indi
See Chart:
Looking for a Floor: The Nasdaq is close to an area where past selloff stalled
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/1x-1-1-768x432.jpg?itok=w5eDuFsE
To note, the reduction in the positive delta in names like Tesla, which, heading into this week, had nearly 107% of its deltas set to expire (as a percentage of average daily volume), is one dynamic further pressuring markets
See Chart:
HIRO vs Stock Price Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpm-spots-crack-market-one-day-ahead-3-trillion-opex
This activity is feeding into products like the Nasdaq which is seeing a lot of put buying. A shift higher in the VIX term structure (below) denotes demand for index protection, especially in shorter-dated options that are more sensitive to changes in direction and implied volatility.
See Chart:
VIX Futures historical Prices
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/vix%20historical.jpg?itok=TqW5x5bp
If volatility continues to rise, positive exposure to delta rises. This solicits even more selling.
See Chart:
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/negative%20gamma%20loop.jpg?itok=Op2ZYjaX
Why does this matter and why is all of the above potentially bullish? Because many stocks are to have their largest “put-heavy” gamma positions expire soon. We are taking trillions in put notional. These positions are, at present, compounding weakness as dealers sell aggressively against very short-dated, increasingly sensitive negative gamma positions.
The removal of this exposure post-OPEX and the approaching FOMC event will leave dealers with less positive delta exposure to sell against. That's why, SpotGamma sees the market soon entering into a window of strength, to which we will only add that once $3+ trillion in options expire Friday and much of the dealer negative gamma overhang disappears, the selling which we predicted would dominate this week ahead of Friday's Op-Ex, will have exhausted itself and the bandwagon of shorts that piggybacked on the rout in stocks is about to be painfully squeezed higher.
Still, while the next move is higher, as long as bears successfully maintain S&P prices below the $4,630.00 SPX Volatility Trigger, there is increased potential for instability as dealer hedging flows continue to take from market liquidity (sell weakness and buy strength), further exacerbating underlying movement.
See Chart:
SPX at an inflection in Gama positioning
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/sg%20vol%20trigger.jpg?itok=Qs36fV2f
….
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpm-spots-crack-market-one-day-ahead-3-trillion-opex
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"just as you’re beginning to think the thing is completely immortal, it finally, and perhaps a little anticlimactically, keels over and dies. The sooner the better for everyone."
SOURCE:
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ENERGY LIMITS ARE LIKELY TO PUSH THE WORLD ECONOMY INTO RECESSION IN 2022
...we are at the edge of a recession. If we cannot get our energy problems solved, the downturn could be very long-lasting.
The energy narrative we are being told is mostly the narrative that politicians would like us to believe, rather than the narrative that historians and physicists would develop.
Politicians would like us to believe that we live in a world of everlasting economic growth and that the only thing we should fear is climate change. They base their analyses on models by economists who seem to think that an “invisible hand” will fix all problems. The economy can always grow; enough fossil fuels and other resources will always be available. Governments seem to be able to print money; somehow, this money will be transformed into physical goods and services. With these assumptions, the only problems are distant ones that central banks and carbon taxes can handle.
The realists are historians and physicists. They tell us that a huge number of past economies have collapsed when their populations attempted to grow at the same time that their resource bases were depleting. These realists tell us that there is a high probability that our current economy will eventually collapse, as well.
See Chart:
The Seneca cliff
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/energy-limits-are-likely-push-world-economy-recession-2022
See many other interesting Charts
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/energy-limits-are-likely-push-world-economy-recession-2022
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption.
Biden is fostering WW3
BIDEN AUTHORIZES RUSH DELIVERIES OF US WEAPONS TO UKRAINE VIA BALTIC ALLIES
"Third Party Transfers" part of a race "to get as much gear to the Ukrainians as quickly as possible."
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BIDEN ADMIN DECREES ALL "ESSENTIAL" WORKERS TRAVELING TO US MUST BE FULLY VACCINATED
It's the latest example of "vaccines for thee, but not for me..."
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BITCOIN, ETHEREUM TUMBLE BELOW KEY LEVELS AFTER RUSSIAN CRYPTO BAN, US TECH WRECK
Friday’s $590 million open interest Options Expiration is likely not helping.
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Video shows 84-year-old Eleanor Holmes Norton grinding up against a nearby vehicle while pulling awkwardly - at the wrong angle - into a parking spot.
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THIS IS YOUR LAST CHANCE, PART 1
Their time is up... reverse course or perish in the destruction they've created
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis, D rest in limbo
IRAN, RUSSIA, CHINA TO HOLD JOINT NAVAL DRILLS AFTER KEY PUTIN-RAISI SUMMIT
Iran's president tells Putin: "We have been confronting the United States with Russia for 40 years."
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SPUTNIK NEWS : https://sputniknews.com/
- Swedish People, Parties Polarised Over Joining NATO Amid Russia Scaremongering
- Israel-US Ties Under Biden Not as Good as Under Trump, But Better Than During Obama
- Investigators Find Pope Benedict XVI Mishandled Sexual Abuse Cases While Leading Munich Archdiocese
- Afghanistan Ranked Most Dangerous Place for Christians, Ahead of North Korea
- Syrian Council Confirms Daesh Attack on Jail in Northeastern Syria
- Doomsday Clock Remains Close to 'Civilisation-Ending Apocalypse'
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JAN 20 2022 PART 1-2 ND SIT EC y POL SPANISH ++
REBELION
Ecol S: imposible sostener el crecimiento sostenido Mateo Aguado
Econ: La riqueza de los más ricos se duplico y el ingreso del 99% cayo
US: KING David Brooks Martin Luther King VIVE!
Opin: PRAXIS EMANCIPADORA CONGELADA FBA Domínguez
VEN: Cambio de libreto: repliegue opositor para reunir fuerzas
Salvad: Bukele quiere olvidar los 30 años del Acdo de Paz Victoria K
Líbertad para Milagro Sala: Con presos políticos no hay democ
Chile: Enjuician a luchadoras sociales por apoyar a pueblo Mapuche
Italia SE PRECIPITA HACIA DESASTRE SANITARIO Y SOCIAL Franco T
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RT EN ESPAÑOL
- Presid iraní : Países que quieren ser independ están bajo ataque enemigo https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/417531-presidente-iran-paises-independientes-ataques-enemigos
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US da luz verde para que los países del Báltico envíen armas a Ucrania https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/417535-eeuu-autoriza-envio-armas-ucrania-paises-baltico
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Laboratorios biológicos: juegan con fuego https://actualidad.rt.com/programas/contrapunto/417451-laboratorios-biologicos-jugar-con-fuego
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CROSS TALK https://www.rt.com/shows/crosstalk/
- Iranian president tells RT if new nuclear deal is possible
- Is the plan to bankrupt Russia working?
- Tax collectors to demand facial recognition
- Moscow gives green light for new showdown with Washington
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
- Blinken Delays US Response to Russia By M. K. Bhadrakumar,
- How Bush and Blair Plotted War in Iraq: Read the Secret Memo in Full
- Totalitarian Paranoia Run Amok: Pandemics, Lockdowns and Martial Law By Nisha W,
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VOLTAIRE NET ORG https://www.voltairenet.org/en
US BOMBINGS IN SYRIA AND IRAQ VIOLATE US CONSTITUTION
18 November 2021, US Representatives, Peter A. DeFazio (R-Oregon), Nancy Mace (R-South Carolina) and Jamaal Bowman (D-New York), wrote to President Joe Biden asking him to specify on which constitutional basis he was bombing Syria and Iraq.
At the end of the two-month regulatory deadline, the White House has still not responded to them. The military actions perpetrated by the United States against these two countries are, therefore, not only violating their sovereignty, but also the US Constitution.
But nobody seems to care!
SOURCE: https://www.voltairenet.org/article215409.html
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DEMOCRACY NOW
- Ralph Nader: Biden’s First Year Proves He Is Still a “Corporate Socialist” Beholden to Big Business
- Setback for Democracy: Manchin & Sinema Join Senate Republicans to Block Voting Rights Legislation
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